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32 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Low of 51 this morning.

And some good news. The 06z GFS holds up the front and now gives us a much deserved bonus warm and dry day on Tuesday.

Hopefully that eventually extends through the following weekend¬†ūüėĀ

Ur still cranky.

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1.05" of rainfall/hail yesterday afternoon/evening with the strong storms that moved through here before changing to heavy snowfall around midnight. Measured 7" this morning! Pretty incredible for May

3" of snow in 2 hours tonight and still dumping. A very good overperformer 

Clip of the storm from beginning to end.....very ūüėé cool!¬† https://video.nest.com/clip/1fd9d2f06b77452cbc676458b5263e1e.mp4 ¬†

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40 minutes ago, Jesse said:

This clears things up 

WWB in the IO pushes water towards the Maritime Continent. Hence downwelling and warming in E-IO into Indo region.

Warmer waters/convection in IO/Maritime Continent domain strengthens Walker Cell/trades thru WPAC, pushing the system into -ENSO/-PDO state.

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Last nights euro run seemed pretty similar to the previous...about 1‚ÄĚ of rain throughput western OR with just a bit less in western WA. Gfs still way wetter but I‚Äôm thinking it‚Äôs overdoing rainfall a bit. Good odds of the PNW getting some nice rain totals next week.¬†

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.14‚ÄĚ

Warm Season Rainfall-5.02‚ÄĚ

Warmest high temp-84

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Low of 37, today looks like upper 70's so a few duhgreez cooler. 

Still a green light for t'storms today, and SPC also has me shaded on Sunday. We'll see how this goes.

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (1)
05/14, 06/--
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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Already up to 60 here after a low of 46. Not much clouds/fog here compared to other locations this morning so we’re warming up quick. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.14‚ÄĚ

Warm Season Rainfall-5.02‚ÄĚ

Warmest high temp-84

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8 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’ve never seen things this dry this early in the season and not have a substantial wet period before real summer arrives.  The rain is coming. 

Last 2 years have had this happen. Dry period in the spring leading to a late spring early summer rainy period. Last spring it started in late April and in 2019 it started in late June...although the 2019 example is a bit different led up to a wet summer. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.14‚ÄĚ

Warm Season Rainfall-5.02‚ÄĚ

Warmest high temp-84

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5 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Last 2 years have had this happen. Dry period in the spring leading to a late spring early summer rainy period. Last spring it started in late April and in 2019 it started in late June...although the 2019 example is a bit different led up to a wet summer. 

Down here we had none of the wet periods you mention.

  • Storm 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 58.15"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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16 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Down here we had none of the wet periods you mention.

N/S gradient is definitely a real thing the last couple years. I thought you guys had some decent rain totals in summer 2019 atleast. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.14‚ÄĚ

Warm Season Rainfall-5.02‚ÄĚ

Warmest high temp-84

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Just looked back at the May thread last year...honestly thought Oregon got more rain late last spring than they  actually did. I admit sometimes I don’t track the rainfall totals down there the same way I track them up here in western WA. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.14‚ÄĚ

Warm Season Rainfall-5.02‚ÄĚ

Warmest high temp-84

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37 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Last 2 years have had this happen. Dry period in the spring leading to a late spring early summer rainy period. Last spring it started in late April and in 2019 it started in late June...although the 2019 example is a bit different led up to a wet summer. 

Yeah... 2019 is a good example.   A record dry March here but then we never had to water all summer.   That is only time that has ever happened here for us.   In fact each summer month in 2019 got progressively wetter and there was basically no fire season at all.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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35 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Just looked back at the May thread last year...honestly thought Oregon got more rain late last spring than they  actually did. I admit sometimes I don’t track the rainfall totals down there the same way I track them up here in western WA. 

2020 had a very wet June across northern OR. Salem only had 1.41" but PDX managed 3.51". May was also slightly wet in many areas.

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4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

2020 had a very wet June across northern OR. Salem only had 1.41" but PDX managed 3.51".

Only 2.04" at HIO, which is 15 miles west of PDX.

Still above average, but it was very showery and location-dependent. Same for May - HIO was the driest place in all of western Oregon in May 2020 IIRC.

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Down here we had none of the wet periods you mention.

Remember Andrew we don't exist to them. Anything south of Portland or in some cases Seattle might as well be Sacramento. 

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8 hours ago, smerfylicious said:

For anyone interested in solar activity, it certainly looks at this point like the sun is having a bit of a hard time getting out of bed after this last minimum. Possibly another 6 months before real activity returning to the disc. Never really seen such a slow start to a maximum before...even the Oulu gamma ray monitor is showing elevated levels and at this point last cycle we were in the negative reading for that.

 

I know how Mr Sun feels!

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Apr/May 2019 had a little more stratiform rainfall, but terminology like "wet periods" is pretty subjective. There wasn't more than about half dozen pretty rainy days, and there were still some warm weeks thrown in.

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (1)
05/14, 06/--
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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3 minutes ago, Link said:

Remember Andrew we don't exist to them. Anything south of Portland or in some cases Seattle might as well be Sacramento. 

Lol people in western WA myself included track rainfall down in OR as well especially with the drought situation currently. I just don’t track as as closely as here at home. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.14‚ÄĚ

Warm Season Rainfall-5.02‚ÄĚ

Warmest high temp-84

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3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Only 2.04" at HIO, which is 15 miles west of PDX.

Still above average, but it was very showery and location-dependent. Same for May - HIO was the driest place in all of western Oregon in May 2020 IIRC.

Yeah, that's usually the way it goes by June, though.

Although we have seen a few legitimate atmospheric river events in June before. June 6-7, 1985 being one example in what was mostly an otherwise freakishly dry year.

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13 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

2020 had a very wet June across northern OR. Salem only had 1.41" but PDX managed 3.51". May was also slightly wet in many areas.

June was decently wet up here as well. Of course you can get tons of rain in the spring and early summer and still get a wildfire fest once late august and September roll around if we are hot and dry all of July and august...last year being a good example. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.14‚ÄĚ

Warm Season Rainfall-5.02‚ÄĚ

Warmest high temp-84

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Phil posted 5 days ago about a "phantom" ULL forming over CA and implied it was wrong.     

Below is the new 12Z ECMWF loop for the next couple days... and that "phantom" ULL is forming right now over CA as it was shown earlier in the week. 

phantom.png

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1620993600-1620993600-1621166400-10.gif

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Phil posted 5 days ago about a "phantom" ULL forming over CA and implied it was wrong.     

Below is the new 12Z ECMWF loop for the next couple days... and that "phantom" ULL is forming right now over CA as it was shown earlier in the week. 

phantom.png

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1620993600-1620993600-1621166400-10.gif

I did clarify that post 2hrs later. Not the best wording.

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FWIW, I was (mostly) right about the excessive digging of the offshore trough by the GFS, and that stray Euro run.

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12Z ECMWF shows .17 at SEA and .21 at PDX through day 9.   But there is lots of rain all around us so it might trend better.   Far eastern WA and OR and northern ID gets tons of rain on this run.

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-1771200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Already up to 68...could hit 75 here this afternoon we will see. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.14‚ÄĚ

Warm Season Rainfall-5.02‚ÄĚ

Warmest high temp-84

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Euro was definitely drier in western WA and maybe slightly drier in OR...but still a good run Oregon gets a pretty decent amount of rain especially in the southern half of the willamette valley. 

Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.14‚ÄĚ

Warm Season Rainfall-5.02‚ÄĚ

Warmest high temp-84

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Let's all get a nice thunderstorm tonight!

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (1)
05/14, 06/--
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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10 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Let's all get a nice thunderstorm tonight!

Looks like we might get our first ones tomorrow in Tahoe! Its odd to be this far into spring without a thunderstorm.

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Stray Amiibos towering over the mountains. I mean albinos and they are growing larger by the minute.  They were just barely over the tops of the mountains an hour ago and now quite a bit larger and very widespread.

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5 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Lol people in western WA myself included track rainfall down in OR as well especially with the drought situation currently. I just don’t track as as closely as here at home. 

It's just that many people assume that OR is as wet as they are. I just saw several posts implying that and be 'shocked' when the truth comes out.

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75 and sunny with a little breeze... perfection out there.    Looks like we have to make some time for Lake Sammamish this weekend.   

The water temperature at the buoy in the middle of the lake is up to 64 now.   It will probably be 66 or 67 by Sunday... I think we are ready for swimming and tubing now.  

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Dark skies to the south and north. So far no thunder yet.

202105142318.png

IMG_2300.JPG

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (1)
05/14, 06/--
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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A nice 75/50 at SEA today... looks like it made it to 76 out here.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Link said:

It's just that many people assume that OR is as wet as they are. I just saw several posts implying that and be 'shocked' when the truth comes out.

I think anyone from Washington who actually really reads and posts here consistently knows about the drought situation down there. It’s been going on the past few years now. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.14‚ÄĚ

Warm Season Rainfall-5.02‚ÄĚ

Warmest high temp-84

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73/46 here in Tacoma today. 

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Warm Season Stats

+80s-3

+85s-0

+90s-0

Monthly Rainfall-2.14‚ÄĚ

Warm Season Rainfall-5.02‚ÄĚ

Warmest high temp-84

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Confirmed thunder and a couple flashes to the SW about 4 miles away. 

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (1)
05/14, 06/--
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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78/51 day here with sun sun sun sun sun. Nice to see some convection building to the south and east, if not to just be reminded the atmosphere still has a pulse. This has easily been the most boring spring in memory in terms of any sort of interesting or notable non sunshine/drought related weather.

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

78/51 day here with sun sun sun sun sun. Nice to see some convection building to the south and east, if not to just be reminded the atmosphere still has a pulse. This has easily been the most boring spring in memory in terms of any sort of interesting or notable non sunshine/drought related weather.

Bet u like these model runs.

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