February 2014 in the PNW

[Weather101]

Seems like if Eugene and Salem may jump way into the 40s this weekend. Here is Saturday afternoon:

 

http://s15.postimg.org/4nfzrxjsb/Untitled.png

 

 

NAM MOS has 49 on Saturday and 50 on Sunday in Eugene.

 

And it has 46 at SEA on Sunday.

 

Transition seems to be completely a dud up here.

I'm good still should see snow Sunday night for a bit

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Seems like Eugene and Salem may jump way into the 40s this weekend.    Here is Saturday afternoon:

 

http://s15.postimg.org/4nfzrxjsb/Untitled.png

 

 

NAM MOS has 49 on Saturday and 50 on Sunday in Eugene.

 

And it has 46 at SEA on Sunday.   

 

Transition seems to be completely a dud up here in WA.

I will bet a fiddle of gold Seattle dont warm that much.

[pscz1140]

The low crashing into Oregon next Wednesday on the 00z GFS looks interesting. Not saying things will turn out this way, but once again I think next week could be more than just boring zonal flow.

[Guest Monty67]

What a boring week and weekend for us up here...

are you telling me you aren't excited by the 29F in abbotsford thus evening?

 

Yep, another disappointment up here so far.

[TT-SEA]

Unless you are in or near the Gorge... or north of Everett... everything from Saturday afternoon onward is just rain.     

 

Seattle has little chance after Saturday afternoon... its just too warm and offshore flow is too weak.    Not that there is precip to worry about anyways.  

[Perturbance]

Snow's coming down again here. Throughout the afternoon it was a mix of light flurries but predominantly scattered freezing rain or sleet, giving the snow a crust. I have 1" new snow now atop the crust, for 9" total. 23 degrees.

[Perturbed Member]

PDX NWS has issued a Winter Storm Watch for tomorrow into saturday. Calling for an additional 2-5 inches for the PDX Metro area. 

 

"URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
815 PM PST THU FEB 6 2014


ORZ006-WAZ039-071500-
/O.NEW.KPQR.WS.A.0003.140207T2000Z-140208T1200Z/
/O.CON.KPQR.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-140207T1200Z/
GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HILLSBORO...PORTLAND...OREGON CITY...
GRESHAM...TROUTDALE...VANCOUVER...BATTLE GROUND...CAMAS...
WASHOUGAL
815 PM PST THU FEB 6 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM PST FRIDAY
FOR THE GREATER PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER AREAS...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE GREATER PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER AREAS...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PORTLAND HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4
AM PST FRIDAY.

* TIMING...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT...DECREASING BY FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY NIGHT...AFFECTING THE EVENING
COMMUTE.

* ACCUMULATION...4 TO 8 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO
5 INCHES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

* WIND...EAST WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
NEAR THE GORGE EAST WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...25 TO 35 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 50 MPH...LIKELY LEADING TO OCCASIONAL BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS NEAR TROUTDALE...BOTH TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE...PORTLAND...VANCOUVER...TROUTDALE...
BEAVERTON...HILLSBORO...BATTLE GROUND...CAMAS...AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE GREATER PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER METRO AREA.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL REMAINED SNOW COVERED AND TREACHEROUS
OVERNIGHT...DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON COMMUTES...AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$"

[TT-SEA]

Portland looks to stay good into Sunday morning with strong outflow through the Gorge.

[Weather101]

are you telling me you aren't excited by the 29F in abbotsford thus evening?

 

Yep, another disappointment up here so far.

as usual

[Deweydog]

Well... Unless it goes all wacky on us, PDX should have their first sub-24 degree high in the books in over 18 years (23 degrees on 1-30-96).

[Weather101]

Unless you are in or near the Gorge... or north of Everett... everything from Saturday afternoon onward is just rain.

 

Seattle has little chance after Saturday afternoon... its just too warm and offshore flow is too weak. Not that there is precip to worry about anyways.

Good

[Weather101]

The low crashing into Oregon next Wednesday on the 00z GFS looks interesting. Not saying things will turn out this way, but once again I think next week could be more than just boring zonal flow.

Too warm tho? Or?

[Perturbed Member]

Mark Nelsen has raised his forecast from 1-3 inches to 2-4 inches for PDX tomorrow. 

[Snow]

Portland looks to stay good into Sunday morning with strong outflow through the Gorge.

 

I don't see PDX getting above freezing until Monday mid-day.

[whitechristmas]

Mark Nelsen has raised his forecast from 1-3 inches to 2-4 inches for PDX tomorrow. 

 

On his 7 day?

[GHweatherChris]

Thoughts go out to the GEM and Euro tonight, may they show some snow up this way to make up for this BS of an arctic pattern.

 

I will be happy with 1/2 inch, or like I said earlier flurries.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mark Nelsen has raised his forecast from 1-3 inches to 2-4 inches for PDX tomorrow. 

 

Whats he saying for SLE?

[Weather101]

Thoughts go out to the GEM and Euro tonight, may they show some snow up this way to make up for this BS of an arctic pattern.

 

I will be happy with 1/2 inch, or like I said earlier flurries.

[pscz1140]

Too warm tho? Or?

 

Could be a close call - stranger things have happened. Then again, that's assuming it turns out that way...

[Perturbed Member]

On his 7 day?

He said that on TV. I'm sure he'll update soon. 

[Perturbed Member]

Whats he saying for SLE?

He didn't give a number but said 2-4 for PDX metro and heavier as you go south but freezing rain also gets into the picture for really further south areas like Corvallis and Eugene. I think Salem should be in a good spot for tomorrow. 

[Jesse]

A reminder on the whole "Sun Angle Debate":  Let's stick to the facts about the sun angle calendar (where solstices and equinoxes are defined as the midpoints of their respective seasons rather than the beginning cusps).  Even though February 3-4 is the start of the 'spring' quarter, keep in mind that the seasonal sun angle curve is sinusoidal in nature.  That means the majority of change in insolation levels occurs within 4-6 weeks, either direction, of the spring and fall equinoxes.  On the February cross-quarter we have regained only 1 - (1/sqrt2), or 29%, of the north-south distance from the celestial Tropic of Capricorn up to the equator.  That gets us up to 16.6 South, or about 29 degrees above Portland's southern horizon, at the time of solar noon near 12:15pm.  Better than the 21 degrees at the winter solstice, but it's still a weak and wintry sun. 

 

Perhaps the sun-angle seasons should be partitioned so that 'Spring' and 'Fall' are only 2 months instead of 3; say Feb. 20-Apr. 20 for spring and Aug. 21-Oct. 22 for fall?  That would put the solar declination on the seasonal cusps at 11.7 degrees North or South, instead of 16.6 - allowing the position of the sun in the sky to actually get halfway back to its Equinox position before we declare the onset of Spring or Fall.

 

Everyone knows that February 20 and August 20 seem to be the respective cutoff dates for really intense heat or cold events in the Pacific Northwest.  A big arctic blast ought to be perfectly doable through at least Valentine's Day - I'm convinced that the "arctic cliff" in daily record low temps around February 5-6 is simply due to the fact that the 2nd week of February just has managed to avoid getting hit with strong arctic air for the historical period that our records tend to run in.  Older recording stations DO show mid-February arctic blasts from the early 20th century, though I don't have the data on hand to post examples.  And had we gotten clearer skies with this arctic air (and a little snow cover beforehand), we might have set quite a few new record lows for the Feb. 6-8 period.  I'd imagine that today's high of about 19 or 20 at DLS might be a new record cold high for this late in the season, and perhaps again tomorrow.  We're getting that frigid air in here, it's just too cloudy for some epic low temps.

 

Great post Karl. I love this kind of stuff. Welcome!

[Jesse]

Still 15f and snowing out here. Looks like I will end up recording an 18/14 spread today with about five inches so far, drifts approaching a few feet. More on the way too, and probably no true thaw out here until Monday or so. Just completely epic.

[GHweatherChris]

IR satellite is starting to look a bit intriguing as far as a further N push of moisture tomorrow.

 

Edit:  Nevermind, I just looked at the wide view of the pacific of the satellite, and it looks to be heading for Oregon full steam ahead.

[GHweatherChris]

Still 15f and snowing out here. Looks like I will end up recording an 18/14 spread today with about five inches so far, drifts approaching a few feet. More on the way too. Just completely epic.

That is awesome.  You have waited awhile for the gorge effect to work for ya.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Still 15f and snowing out here. Looks like I will end up recording an 18/14 spread today with about five inches so far, drifts approaching a few feet. More on the way too, and probably no true thaw out here until Monday or so. Just completely epic.

OMG a few feet?!! can you take pics tomorrow please.

[TT-SEA]

Still 15f and snowing out here. Looks like I will end up recording an 18/14 spread today with about five inches so far, drifts approaching a few feet. More on the way too, and probably no true thaw out here until Monday or so. Just completely epic.

 

 

Awesome.    Gorge finally delivered for you... it came through before you left.

[MossMan]

Still 15f and snowing out here. Looks like I will end up recording an 18/14 spread today with about five inches so far, drifts approaching a few feet. More on the way too, and probably no true thaw out here until Monday or so. Just completely epic.

I was going to "Like" this, but apparently I have used too many today

Anyway, congrats on a great snowy day!

[FroYoBro]

Some lightning strikes with some showers moving towards Eugene. 

[Alex_Snakes]

Snowing in Tacoma... One last gasp!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Karl has posted on Mark's blog for awhile now and I talk to him on fb quite a bit about weather and other topics such as politics and economics...Anyways, he's a great guy and I'm happy to see him posting on here!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some lightning strikes with some showers moving towards Eugene. 

 

Wonder if this will fall as snow or ZR down there? This band has surged north and I'm getting some heavy snow at the moment.

[luvssnow_spokane]

One last gasp here .. Getting the heaviest snow yet. Might get an inch.

[Jesse]

Nice to see another solar nerd here!

 

Karl is pretty awesome with that stuff. Also local climatology. Definitely speaking my language.

[Perturbed Member]

FYI. 00z GFS has QPF of .76in for tomorrow in PDX. 18z had .53in. Would be quite interesting to see if it will verify. The RPM model gives 2.0 inches for tomorrows system in PDX. 

Will have to look at the 00z ECMWF and GEM. 

[Jesse]

Awesome.    Gorge finally delivered for you... it came through before you left.

 

Yeah, I today has me pretty floored. Just four months before I'm leaving. Completely will change they way I evaluate how the weather was in my time out here.

 

Thanks for the nice comments everyone. Even though we don't always get along I think most people here are generally good.

[GHweatherChris]

This is encouraging from the GEM, considering it was the first to show the all south event that happened today.

 

 

[Deweydog]

Some lightning strikes with some showers moving towards Eugene. 

 

Definitely a convective aspect to things now.  I've actually had some graupel out here this evening.  

[Dadio]

What is your location again, I forget! Everyone needs to fill out their location info on their profiles!

Sorry. Just saw this. I live just south of Olympia. In the country.

[Jesse]

OMG a few feet?!! can you take pics tomorrow please.

 

Yes, will do.