February 2014 in the PNW

[snow_wizard]

The cold air advection is going to be almost off the charts for the places that get snow with this, especially in the Midwest. Highs in the single digits in the Midwest in March is almost unheard of. Not a ton of upper level support the further south you go, but the outflow from Canada looks amazingly widespread and intense.

 

And then Montana is going to shatter some monthly records if this comes to fruition. Numbers being spit out like -25 in Billings, which would be 6 degrees below the monthly record of -19.

 

Kind of weird, but this airmass has as much potential as any other one so far this winter even though it'll most likely just glance us at best.

Let's hope the ECMWF is right about the cold being forced more strongly into the region. I'm sure there will be surprises with either the scope of the cold air, moisture, or both.

[TT-SEA]

Let's hope the ECMWF is right about the cold being forced more strongly into the region. I'm sure there will be surprises with either the scope of the cold air, moisture, or both.

 

 

It seems like the ECMWF scenario is too strong... it scours all the moisture out and pushes it south.

[Phil]

Kind of fascinating how the models are watering down the cold east of the Rockies and emphasizing it more in the NW now. I'm almost in shock.

You can have the cold. I'm really rooting for you guys in the Puget sound area. Nothing sucks more than being missed to the N and the S.

[snow_wizard]

You can have the cold. I'm really rooting for you guys in the Puget sound area. Nothing sucks more than being missed to the N and the S.

You got that right!

 

The Canadian has trended decidedly colder on this run. Still not to the extent of 0z GFS or 12z ECMWF but a step in the right direction.

[Phil]

Really interesting how the GFS plunges the cold air deep into the Heartland next week while the 12z ECMWF kept the cold air primarily over the northern tier. I hope the Euro is right on this. At ay rate a solid cold spell looks pretty likely now.

 

The GFS operational did seem to show a little bit of snow going into the cold for some places.

Differences in wave-breaking within the NAO domain are the culprit. Either way that cold is going to be dislodged as the upper level PV has taken hit after hit.

[Phil]

You got that right!

 

The Canadian has trended decidedly colder on this run. Still not to the extent of 0z GFS or 12z ECMWF but a step in the right direction.

I'm leaning towards the scenario depicted by the 00z GFS, however there will be a weakness in the stress fields over the NE-PAC as the ridging bifurcates and breaks over the tropopause in NW North America. In other words, don't sleep on the 12Z ECMWF, as there's a good chance for an arctic intrusion west of the Cascades before the cold spills east of the Rockies.

[AnthonyC]

I'll take ONE more shot before I want Winter to be over...and warmer/drier weather to arrive.

 

The first week of March is notorious for arctic air.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I'm leaning towards the scenario depicted by the 00z GFS, however there will be a weakness in the stress fields over the NE-PAC as the ridging bifurcates and breaks over the tropopause in NW North America. In other words, don't sleep on the 12Z ECMWF, as there's a good chance for an arctic intrusion west of the Cascades before the cold spills east of the Rockies.

So now the ecmwf is wrong? Jesus christ.

[TT-SEA]

Just for reference... here is the WRF from one week ago tonight for this past Saturday:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014021712/images_d2/pcp3.120.0000.gif

 

 

Here is the new WRF for this coming Saturday:

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014022500/images_d2/pcp3.120.0000.gif

 

 

It seemed to latch onto the idea of precip with the cold air by last Monday... this time it shows nothing.    

 

In that regard... the GFS/WRF actually led the ECMWF.    The GFS was too aggressive with the cold... but as I admitted last week it was the first to get the idea of precip correctly.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I am really looking forward to seeing the ensembles here in about half an hour.

[Karl Bonner]

Three good shots in one winter would be pretty impressive. Especially when all three are totally separate events. Haven't pulled that off in one winter for a long time. I don't think there has been a winter with early winter, mid winter, and late winter blasts in the period of record.

 

Funny how we're referring to PNW arctic air after Groundhog Day as "mid winter" nowadays  

 

Has our perception of winter seasonal lag and the boundary between winter and spring shifted this year?

[snow_wizard]

Funny how we're referring to PNW arctic air after Groundhog Day as "mid winter" nowadays  

 

Has our perception of winter seasonal lag and the boundary between winter and spring shifted this year?

I call anything to about Feb 7 as mid winter. The Feb blast was on the outer edge of mid I will admit.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The WRF just lost its mind...

 

[Karl Bonner]

Well technically the arctic blast started on February 3rd with a few snow flurries here in town, which is actually the "official midpoint" of winter.

[snow_wizard]

FWIW the 0z WRF is colder for Eastern WA than either the Dec or Feb blasts. Pretty stunning if it happens. Even on the west side it would easily be the coldest March blast since 1989 and maybe since 1955.

[Karl Bonner]

Oh my BLEEP - it must be because Mark Nelsen took a short vacation that we're getting arctic air in March! 

[snow_wizard]

The WRF just lost its mind...

 

The potential is there for such an outcome. The bitter cold air mass is so close that a record setting event isn't out of the question. I am intrigued how the models picked up on this so late in the game. Perhaps a better than average chance of last minute surprises.

[snow_wizard]

Cold spaghetti is on the menu tonight. Only one ensemble member doesn't go below 540 heights over all of Washington state at the end of the week. MUCH colder than previous runs.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Cold spaghetti is on the menu tonight. Only one ensemble member doesn't go below 540 heights over all of Washington state at the end of the week. MUCH colder than previous runs.

I thing this one has a better chance for low pressure to form over Vancouver island and move down the coast.

[snow_wizard]

I thing this one has a better chance for low pressure to form over Vancouver island and move down the coast.

Some chance of this being a major event for cold, sow, or both. The difference between the 18z and 0z ensembles is stunning.

[bainbridgekid]

Wow.

 

Operational is cold but it's still a big warm outlier compared to the ensembles.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

[snow_wizard]

The mean drops to -11 for Seattle now.  Amazing downward trend at this point.  It's also worth noting the CFS 5 day surface temperature anomaly bottoms out around 10C below normal (colder east of the Cascades) for the coldest 5 day period during this.

 

[Poulsbo Snowman]

You can have the cold. I'm really rooting for you guys in the Puget sound area. Nothing sucks more than being missed to the N and the S.

 

You can have the cold. I'm really rooting for you guys in the Puget sound area. Nothing sucks more than being missed to the N and the S.

 

Well--we were missed E and W too.  Just a point of reference to make here.

[snow_wizard]

The way this is trending a 12z ECMWF type solution can't be ruled out at all.

[Bryant]

It seems like the ECMWF scenario is too strong... it scours all the moisture out and pushes it south.

Whats with you lately? You ALWAYS praise the euro, and now that it shows huge potential you think it should be taken with a grain of salt? You're unique Tim... very unique

[Phil]

So now the ecmwf is wrong? Jesus christ.

Every model will be "wrong" to a certain extent. Right now I'd just go with the ECMWF ensembles.

[TT-SEA]

Whats with you lately? You ALWAYS praise the euro, and now that it shows huge potential you think it should be taken with a grain of salt? You're unique Tim... very unique

 

 

Did I say it was wrong or to "take it with a grain of salt" or anything like that?

 

I said that scenario would be too cold for snow.    Could be right!!     But too cold since it pushes precip to the south.     Never said it was wrong.

 

You pretty much attack me now with every post directed at me... you seem to be only half-reading my posts and populating the rest with some venom for no reason at all.   

 

 

And the ECMWF is the best model.    Stop attributing praise for the ECMWF to me.   Everyone in the meteorological world praises it.

[bainbridgekid]

00z Euro isn't anywhere near as cold as the 12z. Way warmer than the GFS too.

 

850's bottom out at -7 at BLI, -4 at SEA and -2 at PDX.

[TT-SEA]

GFS MOS based on the 00Z run has mid-40s for highs this weekend at SEA.

 

Which will probably be right on target unless precip is present... which is not shown now.

 

With precip... it could be very wrong.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

00z Euro isn't anywhere near as cold as the 12z. Way warmer than the GFS too.

 

850's bottom out at -7 at BLI, -4 at SEA and -2 at PDX.

ECMWF jumps around like a frog in the 4 and 5 day period.

[snow_wizard]

Widespread 4 inch snowfall totals on the 0z ECMWF for the Puget Sound region. A blend of the GFS and ECMWF could produce a very interesting outcome. Nice to see some moisture being introduced and still cold enough for snow.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF jumps around like a frog in the 4 and 5 day period.

 

 

I think it did the exact same thing last Monday night... taking away all cold and snow.     Ask the people up north if that worked out?

 

All models will continue to struggle it seems.    This is a strange scenario overall.   What else is new this winter???    

[TT-SEA]

Widespread 4 inch snowfall totals on the 0z ECMWF for the Puget Sound region. A blend of the GFS and ECMWF could produce a very interesting outcome. Nice to see some moisture being introduced and still cold enough for snow.

 

 

Crazy.

 

Hard to follow all of this... it looks like a warm run but then ends up dumping snow on us with 850mb temps barely below zero.

[BLI snowman]

I think it did the exact same thing last Monday night... taking away all cold and snow.     Ask the people up north if that worked out?

 

All models will continue to struggle it seems.    This is a strange scenario overall.   What else is new this winter???    

 

Yep, and let us not forget all the model back/forth in early February and early December.

 

We've had great luck (knocks on wood) this winter with getting cold to verify when the models have introduced the idea within 240 hours.

[whitechristmas]

I guess this will be another northern event? No PDX met talk of any cold weather for this weekend. Everybody shows 40's and 50's. Although some of the maps posted on here tonight disagree. I'm hoping we all go out with a BANG!

[Black Hole]

The last cold spell (early this month) originally was shown to go much further south, and impact my area. The change was to hold up the energy as a surface low spun up offshore. Ultimately I got the shaft but it allowed for the prolonged snow and cold for Oregon. This time of year it just gets harder for cold air to penetrate. Models do have decent upper level support to drive it south but if another surface low pops up it could be similar to earlier this month. Then of course where that happens, should it happen, would decide who wins for snow.

[snow_wizard]

The last cold spell (early this month) originally was shown to go much further south, and impact my area. The change was to hold up the energy as a surface low spun up offshore. Ultimately I got the shaft but it allowed for the prolonged snow and cold for Oregon. This time of year it just gets harder for cold air to penetrate. Models do have decent upper level support to drive it south but if another surface low pops up it could be similar to earlier this month. Then of course where that happens, should it happen, would decide who wins for snow.

This will be another fascinating study for sure. Certainly a chance for something very interesting for somebody.

[Brennan]

I’m not going to be around this coming weekend and early next week, so I’m guessing something epic will occur. It’ll probably snow 2 feet with temps in the 20’s here in Bellingham. I was already almost punk’d by this latest storm. Leaving tonight at 2am and there’s still 8 inches of snow on the ground here. 

[Skagit Weather]

Snow mostly gone here, although there are some patches left sitting around. The 35 degree rain has really been killing it especially since the last 24 hours tied for the wettest I have had all winter with 1.1" in the bucket. Another winter storm would definitely be nice, but hopefully it would be just a degree or two colder than this one. I have been between 33F and 36F for the past 72 hours, that is some pretty amazing temperature consistency.

[Deweydog]

Oh my BLEEP - it must be because Mark Nelsen took a short vacation that we're getting arctic air in March! 

 

God?