February 2014 in the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

Temperatures basically free falling out here at the moment. 24 currently.

And, that's with clouds, or no?

[FroYoBro]

I am very surprised that the 00z GFS is still showing the system for Thursday hitting Oregon. I am still thinking this wont verify but its inside 48 hours now.

Dude, it's happening. The only question is how far north the moisture makes it. 

[GHweatherChris]

Temperatures basically free falling out here at the moment. 24 currently.

It was 26 out there when you posted at 5:30.  2 degree drop  , since when is that free falling?

 

HeHe, I couldn't resist Jesse.

[Snow]

Dude, it's happening. The only question is how far north the moisture makes it. 

 

The ECMWF hasn't shown this at all.

[FroYoBro]

The ECMWF hasn't shown this at all.

I bet it will show up tonight.

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow.....

[Deweydog]

It's the NAM.

[Snow]

Wow.....

 

6 to 10 inches for much of the Valley! Rod Hill was right!

[Gradient Keeper]

It's the NAM.

Yep, but it sure is D**n purty lookin'

[FroYoBro]

0z GFS also brings precipitation to Portland. The heavier stuff is focused further south than the NAM, but still gives me some snow. This should be fun to track. 

[Snow]

00z GFS Thursday at 10pm.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_054_1000_500_thick.gif

[bainbridgekid]

Solid couple inches for Portland Thursday-Thursday night on the 00z GFS. Higher amounts not far South of there.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_066_precip_ptot.gif

[BLI snowman]

00z GFS definitely a step towards the NAM, showing light snow up to Toledo on Friday.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I'm getting scared.

[Perturbed Member]

http://0-media-cdn.foolz.us/ffuuka/board/q/image/1378/80/1378801129396.gif

[GHweatherChris]

Solid couple inches for Portland Thursday-Thursday night on the 00z GFS. Higher amounts not far South of there.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_066_precip_ptot.gif

Depressing.

[HighlandExperience]

Depressing.

 

Don't worry, it will be farther north later. 

[Perturbed Member]

I hope it shifts 100 or so miles north, but I guess it looks like PDX will finally get something even if it doesn't.

[TT-SEA]

Don't worry, it will be farther north later. 

 

 

Feels that way.

[Deweydog]

Yep, but it sure is D**n purty lookin'

 

Indeed.  The message for now seems to be north.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Portland is going to get crushed.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Even LA looks to score some moisture.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The overrunning potential looks a million times better for Salem and my location on Saturday on the 00z...

[snow_wizard]

The 0z is fabulous for snow in the Puget Sound region on Saturday. Thicknesses still below 534 in the late afternoon with offshore gradients. A lot of moisture has already arrived at that point. Sure looking good for Oregon Thursday and or Friday.

[bainbridgekid]

Interestingly the weekend storm is significantly further South on the 00z.

 

Definitely delays the warmup.

 

Saturday would be totally dry here in Bellingham but Sunday would be snowy instead of rainy.

 

Looks quite snowy for both Seattle and Portland.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS is sexy. Massive snow storm PDX.

[Snow]

OOZ GFS POUNDS PDX

[BLI snowman]

Portland to Seattle corridor really gets buried on Saturday on this run. Snowiest run yet. 6"+ apiece, I'd guess.

[TT-SEA]

Sunday afternoon... 850mb temp is -3C up here.

 

Way slower.

 

As long as flow is still offshore then it will be still snowy.

[FroYoBro]

00z GFS is sexy. Massive snow storm PDX.

The end of it looks like freezing rain to me,but at least a nice blanket of snow before that. But we won't know for a couple of days.

[pscz1140]

If this GFS is anything close to reality Oregon and SW WA look to get buried, and the cold air over Northern WA isn't going anywhere for a long time.

 

This dosn't look like a typical transition event since cold air is pushing down from Canada just as the moisture is moving in (it won't get colder but it looks very slow to warm up). Also, that low in the GOA is pretty far out there and not really driving the warmth/moisture too far north like it was before.

[Snow]

Tonights OOZ ECMWF is going to be one of the most ANTICIPATED model runs in a very long time.

[snow_wizard]

Excellent run for Eugene to Everett on this run through Saturday evening. A ton of moisture is shown to fall as snow in the Seattle area. It takes forever for the surface gradients to go southerly compared to previous runs. hope this is for real.

[Snowman Josh]

Tonights OOZ ECMWF is going to be one of the most ANTICIPATED model runs in a very long time.

Can't wait

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Sunday afternoon... 850mb temp is -3C up here.

 

Way slower.

 

As long as flow is still offshore then it will be still snowy.

looks like offshore for you even into Monday. You could get it good.

[westcoastexpat]

The end of it looks like freezing rain to me,but at least a nice blanket of snow before that. But we won't know for a couple of days.

 

Continues the ice storm idea. Not devastating but still very dangerous. 

[epiceast]

The GEM solution from last night? Two lows both south of Portland xD

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What's the GEM saying right now???

[epiceast]

What's the GEM saying right now???

need to find a map so i can follow the link...

edit: 

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_096.jpg

and Saturday(close enough).

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_120.jpg

[TT-SEA]

About 5 days ago Dewey said if there was one thing he has learned this winter its that strong pacific influence shown in the models will fade as the time approaches.  

 

This whole set-up is odd... look at the 500mb pattern right now.    Not your typical arctic outbreak look at all:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_000_500_vort_ht.gif