Meatyorologist Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, Phil said: This is the hr936 EPS mean. Cherry picked timeframe but…dayuum that’s an arctic express pattern if I’ve ever seen one. Horseshoe block from AK/Aleutians to Greenland. Anything after 11/15 is fair game in my books. And getting cold in November isn't necessarily a bad thing. Sometimes you get cold and stay cold, especially in La Niña years... A la 1955/56 (yes I know, different climate state, but my point still stands) Also do you mind sharing some of those "ridiculously cold" EPS members? I'd love to see some snowmaps 3 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Anything after 11/15 is fair game in my books. And getting cold in November isn't necessarily a bad thing. Sometimes you get cold and stay cold, especially in La Niña years... A la 1955/56 (yes I know, different climate state, but my point still stands) Also do you mind sharing some of those "ridiculously cold" EPS members? I'd love to see some snowmaps Yeah, I agree. I'm feeling some potential around the 21st lasting through Thanksgiving turkey(or pizza?) day. 6z GFS in 1 hour 16 minutes 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 Tim is not going to like what Phil is sharing. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: Yeah, I agree. I'm feeling some potential around the 21st lasting through Valentines day. 6z GFS in 1 hour 16 minutes ftfy 2 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 Also, Dr. Roundy’s experimental filtered tropical forcing analogs feature the high amplitude NPAC blocking as well (though verbatim this is more +NAO compared to the EPS). Still, I’d ignore the exact placement of the block. That’s less important at this range. IMO the key takeaway is there appears to be a growing consensus for a period of amplification during mid/late November. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: ftfy No complaints here! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 Night shift is gonna be one helluva party this year. 1 3 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 6z NAM 3km wimpy 944mb low 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 6z NAM 3km wimpy 944mb low You see those everyday. Nothing to see here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 9 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said: 6z NAM 3km wimpy 944mb low Quite an intensification being shown as well. Goes from 983 to 950 in about 6 hours. With an average of 5.5-6mb drop per hour. Then we get to 944 in about 10 hours. Just your every day storm out there. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 NAM cutting it real close. Very similar to 2016 Songda path. 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 Jeeze if it doesn't take a turn north that'd be quite the windy party for Northern WA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 From a meteorological perspective Sunday's storm looks jaw-dropping. But from an impact standpoint it'll be pretty underwhelming outside of coastal surf concerns. Next Wednesday night's smaller low looks a bit more interesting in that regard... Tight low w/ a bit of baroclinity to it. Could pack a punch in a small area, especially since it's strengthening on impact, not filling. Recent runs don't show it developing too much since its inception is a bit late, so we'll see. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow maniac Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 We need a good wind storm to plow strait through Washington. It’s been way too long 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 5 hours ago, Cloud said: Tim is not going to like what Phil is sharing. From the middle of November through the middle of February... I am more a fan of cold than warm. Warm usually means endless rain in that period. So I am very intrigued by what Phil was sharing. Maybe a front loaded winter! 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 4 hours ago, Cloud said: Quite an intensification being shown as well. Goes from 983 to 950 in about 6 hours. With an average of 5.5-6mb drop per hour. Then we get to 944 in about 10 hours. Just your every day storm out there. Here is the 06Z ECMWF... looks like it bottoms out at 942mb. 3 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 Might need to make a trip down to the coast for some wave action. Vortex fun! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 Active weather! It was pouring all morning long. 2 1 1 1 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 0.71" at KLMT, pretty good! 3 2 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 6 hours ago, DJ Droppin said: 6z NAM 3km wimpy 944mb low If it is like Thursday system it’s just 30 to 35 mph gusts not much to see with winds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 Looks like Northern California was hit the hardest. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 38 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: 0.71" at KLMT, pretty good! Well below the 3.57" for Crescent City. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 9 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: Well below the 3.57" for Crescent City. Pretty insane that it would be drier out in Klamath Falls. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 52 and misty at Alderbrook this morning. There was a guy swimming in the canal when I was out about 7:30. I try to enjoy my normal activities regardless of the weather, but that’s going above and beyond. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 Dry right now, but it looks like a lot of showers moving in for the rest of the morning. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 I’m surprised Jim hasn’t posted about the weeklies yet. Some of the members go full Nov 1985. 4 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 15 minutes ago, T-Town said: 52 and misty at Alderbrook this morning. There was a guy swimming in the canal when I was out about 7:30. I try to enjoy my normal activities regardless of the weather, but that’s going above and beyond. Maybe he does Polar Bear Plunge on New Year's Day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 32 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Pretty insane that it would be drier out in Klamath Falls. They're in the desert portion of Oregon. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 35 minutes ago, BLI snowman said: Pretty insane that it would be drier out in Klamath Falls. I have seen more than that in the past; and it's still raining as we all type! Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: They're in the desert portion of Oregon. Greater Idaho pretty soon. 1 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 This beats all those fake 45/15 days in Oct 2019, blinding sun all day, and your hands get zapped when turning lights on. lol 1 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 12z coming in WET! 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 25 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: 12z coming in WET! Yowza! 1 1 1 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 Jim will like this. 2 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 GFS totals. 1 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 GFS ensemble low locations for the Sunday storm. 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Jim will like this. Temps for the last frame. 1 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: GFS ensemble low locations for the Sunday storm. Trending south? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 22, 2021 Report Share Posted October 22, 2021 1 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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