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PNW October 2021, Pumpkin Spice Edition


The Blob

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Looks like if the euro verifies we will be over 4” of rain for the month. Not bad was hoping for more but still decent. Looking like Halloween will be dry for the 3rd year in a row that’s a pretty decent streak…hopefully can manage some good Halloween sunset photos have gotten some amazing ones the last 2 years. 

  • Rain 1

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z EPS shows the western troughing lifting out as we move into November...

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1634947200-1634947200-1636243200-10.gif

Will have to get some more camping in late this month and next month. 

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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21 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Will have to get some more camping in late this month and next month. 

Good idea. My wife wants to get a larger propane heater for the tent. It has a carbon monoxide sensor but it still makes me nervous to sleep in the tent with it. In Wyoming I kept opening the tent a little once she fell asleep which is probably part of why she thinks we need a bigger one. Lol

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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5 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Wind Advisory posted for the EPSL for tomorrow.  Gusts up to 45 mph.

Going to be an east wind out here tomorrow...

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-wnd10m_stream_kmh-5098400.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Good idea. My wife wants to get a larger propane heater for the tent. It has a carbon monoxide sensor but it still makes me nervous to sleep in the tent with it. In Wyoming I kept opening the tent a little once she fell asleep which is probably part of why she thinks we need a bigger one. Lol

Yeah the weathers looking good always love to get some camping in during off-season times. I’ve always been nervous about using those propane heaters in tents too…probably a good thing you kept opening the tent. I’ve never used one I just have a 0 degree sleeping bag and on nights when it got down to the upper 20s it’s been fine for me. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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45 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z EPS shows the western troughing lifting out as we move into November...

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1634947200-1634947200-1636243200-10.gif

Looks like we’re both rooting for November ridging... though for different reasons! ;) 

  • Like 2

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Looks like we’re both rooting for November ridging... though for different reasons! ;) 

I would be good with a cold and snowy December and January too!  

Of course we will be in Hawaii for the entire second half of December... but December and January are when I cheer strongly for cold.    😁

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Good idea. My wife wants to get a larger propane heater for the tent. It has a carbon monoxide sensor but it still makes me nervous to sleep in the tent with it. In Wyoming I kept opening the tent a little once she fell asleep which is probably part of why she thinks we need a bigger one. Lol

Same, I don’t trust using those things either.  I’d rather freeze at night knowing I’ll wake up

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55 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Looks like if the euro verifies we will be over 4” of rain for the month. Not bad was hoping for more but still decent. Looking like Halloween will be dry for the 3rd year in a row that’s a pretty decent streak…hopefully can manage some good Halloween sunset photos have gotten some amazing ones the last 2 years. 

We could potentially end up with below-normal rainfall this month. I don’t think we will partially because PDX happens to be in a fortuitous location this morning. 

I don’t know when you guys are going to start believing me about modeled rainfall versus verified rainfall. 

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1 hour ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Agree. It’s a weird storm with a weird track that is not typical of big winds around here.  

There’s basically no pressure surge and the thing is essentially occluded before it makes landfall. It’s a deep low but it’s also a large system sitting in a “moat” of low pressure, so the gradient isn’t as tight as it might otherwise be.

Put me in the bearish camp on this one save the most exposed areas w/ the longest fetch. 

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  • Weenie 1
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21 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

We could potentially end up with below-normal rainfall this month. I don’t think we will partially because PDX happens to be in a fortuitous location this morning. 

I don’t know when you guys are going to start believing me about modeled rainfall versus verified rainfall. 

Very very unlikely. We have a shot at a top 10 wet October here if that AR sets up right later next week. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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23 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

We could potentially end up with below-normal rainfall this month. I don’t think we will partially because PDX happens to be in a fortuitous location this morning. 

I don’t know when you guys are going to start believing me about modeled rainfall versus verified rainfall. 

The GFS has been pretty consistent in hitting us with an AR late next next though. My gut is telling me that it will end up being most impactful north of us if it materializes. 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Very very unlikely. We have a shot at a top 10 wet October here if that AR sets up right later next week. 

Yeah... the AR coming up is the wild card but seems almost guaranteed to bring at least some significant rain down there to boost the October totals.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Very very unlikely. We have a shot at a top 10 wet October here if that AR sets up right later next week. 

Ha, I just commented on the AR. It is very unlikely that we end up below-normal. You’re right. Tomorrow isn’t looking terribly impressive for rain though. It was once looking like quite a soaker. 

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3 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Ha, I just commented on the AR. It is very unlikely that we end up below-normal. You’re right. Tomorrow isn’t looking terribly impressive for rain though. It was once looking like quite a soaker. 

Strong offshore flow tomorrow will definitely limit rainfall totals out here.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Nice amount of rain this morning! Keep it coming! Not as heavy but it's certainly a steady falling rain.

39 right now, was 42 a couple hours ago. 

  • Rain 1

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 10
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Waves breaking all over the place next week on the GFS, as the NPAC jet begins pulling back.

It marks the beginning of the evolution away from the ongoing quasi-zonal pattern, into an amplified, meridional type pattern for the month of November.

Should finally see some legitimate arctic air build into North America next month.

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29 minutes ago, Phil said:

There’s basically no pressure surge and the thing is essentially occluded before it makes landfall. It’s a deep low but it’s also a large system sitting in a “moat” of low pressure, so the gradient isn’t as tight as it might otherwise be.

Put me in the bearish camp on this one save the most exposed areas w/ the longest fetch. 

You do speak “Basic” !!! 
Nice analysis Phil 😊

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3 minutes ago, crf450ish said:

With that track, we're still going to see some potentially damaging winds, imo...

Probably not for the Seattle area though... flow will stay offshore into Monday with the low offshore and not moving inland to the north which is the track that causes the most problems here.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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This ridging could also be a head fake or get watered down. Still hope.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS still on board with a dry and sunny weekend next week for Halloween festivities.

I was hoping for wet candy! :P

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 10
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This ridging could also be a head fake or get watered down. Still hope.

Not sure why you would root against the ridge... early November 1949 was very warm and ridgy.     It was also near 70 here in early November 2010.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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