PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[Geos]

Sprinkling out there now and 57°.

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Its not an east wind caused by high pressure overhead which tends to be localized near the gaps.      Its a broad area of ESE wind ahead of an incoming trough and storm which is almost always more widespread.  

AKA - it will turn your snow into grupal. Seriously felt like it did last February 

[snow_wizard]

Really interesting looking at the analogs in recent days.  More than half have been from seasons that had great winters, but they run the gamut for ENSO, and other important factors.  Many of the La Nina ones are from 1955, 1964, 1970, 1995, and 2008.  Really hard to complain about that.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its not an east wind caused by high pressure overhead which tends to be localized near the gaps.      Its a broad area of ESE wind ahead of an incoming trough and storm which is almost always more widespread.  

Excellent points.

[snow_wizard]

13 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Still wet. The coast gets hammered. 

850s are colder this run, but nothing impressive yet.

 

Besides the 850s getting cold next week, the models show much less onshore flow which allows the surface to get considerably colder next week than previous runs suggested.  The GFS in particular has a very favorable surface pressure gradient for solidly below normal temps coming up.

[snow_wizard]

SEA has really been killing it for wind over the past couple of weeks.  The last three days had peak winds of 41, 31, and 39 respectively.  Pretty respectable.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Besides the 850s getting cold next week, the models show much less onshore flow which allows the surface to get considerably colder next week than previous runs suggested.  The GFS in particular has a very favorable surface pressure gradient for solidly below normal temps coming up.

00Z EPS is trending weaker with the blocking for the middle of next week... compare the 00Z run tonight (top) to the 00Z run from last night (bottom).    I think it might be too early as Matt has been saying.   Things are still too progressive.

 

[Phil]

Tropical forcing analogs still say mid-December is when things get interesting.

They’ve done pretty darn well thus far.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogs.html

[bainbridgekid]

54 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its 54 with a dewpoint of 29 at SEA now... probably take a little while for rain to reach the ground.

Had a decent shower about 45 minutes ago while I was in line at D*ck’s by UW.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, bainbridgekid said:

Had a decent shower about 45 minutes ago while I was in line at ****’s by UW.

Can't say the name of that restaurant on here.  

[TT-SEA]

SEA came in with a T on the midnight reading.    So it won't be a 0.00 day... but there was also no measurable rain. 

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

Tropical forcing analogs still say mid-December is when things get interesting.

They’ve done pretty darn well thus far.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogs.html

Yeah... its probably too early still.    The 00Z EPS was not too cold either.  

[Skagit Weather]

2 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Under the daily summary stats here: https://wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?ak2968

Awesome, thanks for that! Do you know why the data is so much "rougher" or more variable for the entire period of record versus the 30 year averages? Does it have something to do with smoothing in the 30 year data?

I made a graph of the data below and I'm just surprised there's so much "noise" in the average high and low temps over a 90 year period of record.

[Cloud]

51 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

SEA has really been killing it for wind over the past couple of weeks.  The last three days had peak winds of 41, 31, and 39 respectively.  Pretty respectable.

As posted earlier, the 39mph obs shown is under. SEA peaked at 45mph around 10-10:30. 
 

[Cloud]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA came in with a T on the midnight reading.    So it won't be a 0.00 day... but there was also no measurable rain. 

Yup. It was a near miss… rain showers are a lot heavier now just after midnight. 

[Cloud]

Wind is more sustained now as opposed to being quite gusty from earlier. No more howling. 

[Deweydog]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... its probably too early still.    The 00Z EPS was not too cold either.  

Any word on what month may come after the current one?

[Gradient Keeper]

17 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Any word on what month may come afte the current one?

I feel like this is a trick question. June?

6z GFS in 39 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty much no wind here. Some light rain tho. 

[Gradient Keeper]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Pretty much no wind here. Some light rain tho. 

Looking at MFR, EUG no pressure rises have pushed inland yet. Soon.

[Gradient Keeper]

HIGH WIND WARNING

San Juan County-Western Whatcom County-Western Skagit County-
Admiralty Inlet Area-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-
Including the cities of Friday Harbor, Bellingham, Mount Vernon,
Anacortes, Sedro-Woolley, Burlington, Port Townsend, and Sequim
150 AM PST Tue Nov 9 2021

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...San Juan County, Western Whatcom County, Western
  Skagit County, Admiralty Inlet Area and Eastern Strait of Juan
  de Fuca.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM PST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

--------------------------------------------
North Coast-Central Coast-
Including the cities of Beaver, Clearwater, Forks, La Push,
Neah Bay, Ozette, Queets, Aberdeen, and Hoquiam
150 AM PST Tue Nov 9 2021

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...North Coast and Central Coast.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM PST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

HIGH WIND WARNING

San Juan County-Western Whatcom County-Western Skagit County-
Admiralty Inlet Area-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-
Including the cities of Friday Harbor, Bellingham, Mount Vernon,
Anacortes, Sedro-Woolley, Burlington, Port Townsend, and Sequim
150 AM PST Tue Nov 9 2021

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...San Juan County, Western Whatcom County, Western
  Skagit County, Admiralty Inlet Area and Eastern Strait of Juan
  de Fuca.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM PST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

--------------------------------------------
North Coast-Central Coast-
Including the cities of Beaver, Clearwater, Forks, La Push,
Neah Bay, Ozette, Queets, Aberdeen, and Hoquiam
150 AM PST Tue Nov 9 2021

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph.

* WHERE...North Coast and Central Coast.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM PST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines.
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

Randy @MossMan and a few others up north is gonna feel this one. 

This is actually quite a development with the high wind warning. 

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Randy @MossMan and a few others up north is gonna feel this one. 

This is actually quite a development with the high wind warning. 

My thinking as well. Area of low pressure remained stronger or closed low more than expected. I dunno. Sleepy.

[Cloud]

Expanded version of the Watches and Warnings. 

The Seattle area is now under High Wind Advisory. 

https://a.atmos.washington.edu/data/warning_report.WWA.html

Quote

 

WAZ507-509-556-558-091800- /O.EXB.KSEW.WI.Y.0026.211109T1100Z-211110T0000Z/ Everett and Vicinity-Tacoma Area-Bellevue and Vicinity- Seattle and Vicinity- Including the cities of Everett, Edmonds, Lynnwood, Marysville, Tacoma, Redmond, Kirkland, Bothell, Kenmore, Newport Hills, Sahalee, Pine Lake, and Seattle 150 AM PST Tue Nov 9 2021

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph expected.

* WHERE...Everett and Vicinity, Tacoma Area, Bellevue and Vicinity and Seattle and Vicinity.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM PST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

 

 

[RentonHill]

Pass still rain.

[Cloud]

1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said:

My thinking as well. Area of low pressure remained stronger or closed low more than expected. I dunno. Sleepy.

This is crazy. Models were at a complete lost until the very last second? Crazy. it actually look like most of W.WA is under Wind Advisory and High Wind Warning. 

[Cloud]

Did the mesoscales did better in forecasting this overall? Looks like forecasting wind is quite hard. 

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Did the mesoscales did better in forecasting this overall? Looks like forecasting wind is quite hard. 

I would say previous runs of the NAM/MM5 and HRRR did the best job. The EURO did the worst.

[Cloud]

EPSL is short-lived and not as strong. Advisory only until 10AM this morning. 

Quote

 

WAZ555-091800- /O.EXT.KSEW.WI.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-211109T1800Z/ East Puget Sound Lowlands- Including the cities of Covington-Sawyer-w, Maple Valley, Monroe, Prairie Ridge, Enumclaw, Bonney Lake, and Woodinville 150 AM PST Tue Nov 9 2021

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM PST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

* WHERE...East Puget Sound Lowlands.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM PST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Good night all

12z GFS in 5 hours 17 minutes

12z ECMWF in 7 hours 27 minutes

[smerfylicious]

Snowing at Stevens. Should get ~1.5 feet out of this.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Unfortunately AL comes back in the long range. No action for this location as usual. Just some seasonably cool weather.

[Meatyorologist]

[Cloud]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

@GHweatherChrisapparently knows something we don’t  

[Meatyorologist]

[T-Town]

Just had a squall come through here. Big time wind gusts and rain. Didn’t look like much on radar but packed a serious punch. Big transformer flash to my south. 

[Blizzard777]

8 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Just had a squall come through here. Big time wind gusts and rain. Didn’t look like much on radar but packed a serious punch. Big transformer flash to my south. 

Just arrived here…snowing leaves! 30 mph gust

HRRR was correct on timing for this morning

[Blizzard777]

Those are leaves cruising north!