Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Just plain gorgeous analogs tonight. Both the 6-10, 8-14 day look EXCELLENT! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 Day 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 Day 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 Day 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 I think the ridge over us is trending weaker on the EURO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: I think the ridge over us is trending weaker on the EURO. Looks like it 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 Day 6 Euro is MUCH wetter than the GFS. I did not want to see that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 Day 6 (Past 2 00z runs) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 1 minute ago, van city said: Are they a good or bad sign? Can they extrapolate? 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 Day 7 Meh.... NOPE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 Just now, DJ Droppin said: Day 7 Meh.... NOPE Frosty nights at least 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 I can't see the AL behaving in that way after day 6, but stranger things have happened. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 Tryptophan-induced nugget of joy for the night: When hour 384 on tonight’s GFS verifies, winter will be 12.2% over. 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 Day 8 YUCK, but at least we manage strong east winds and inversions. Yay! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 1 minute ago, DJ Droppin said: Day 8 YUCK, but at least we manage strong east winds and inversions. Yay! Yep. It could be worse. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 6 minutes ago, Deweydog said: Tryptophan-induced nugget of joy for the night: At point hour 384 on tonight’s GFS verifies, winter will be 12.2% over. Might as well call this one a wrap and look forward to 22-23. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 Day 9'er 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 Winters have been back loaded significantly the last couple years. No reason this year won’t be the same 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 Day 10 looks a lot like the GFS with the ridge merger and potential for big time cold Day 11+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 The ECMWF ends on a promising note. Looks like we're on the upswing again. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 Current euro projection puts us at 12” of rain for this month…21.50” for this fall surpassing the previous record fall by over 2 inches of rainfall. Very wet. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 0.76” since midnight here…probably only going to get a few hundredths more before midnight but a solidly wet day still with probably over 3” of additional rain by Tuesday. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: The ECMWF ends on a promising note. Looks like we're on the upswing again. Agreed and perhaps a reason for a night shift. I dunno. I do get a sense that we may be seeing real good runs soon perhaps my prediction of Saturday 00z may ring true. C'MON!!!! 6z GFS in 2 hours 31 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said: Can you rate each one on scale of 1-10 For what eventually happened going forward from each analog... 1979 = 7 1972 = 8 1990 = 8 1970 = 6 (7 if you count late Feb/early Mar) 2008 = 8 1971 = 8 1984 = 8 1995 = 7 1956 = 9 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 11 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: It's just ridiculous how many of those had Arctic outbreaks within the next month or so. One of the two bad ones was a Nino. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: It's just ridiculous how many of those had Arctic outbreaks within the next month or so. One of the two bad ones was a Nino. I think we will see something decent this winter. Hopefully next month! 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 1.8" of rain so far today, 17.73" total MTD. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: 1.8" of rain so far today, 17.73" total MTD. Might get close to 2 feet of rain for the month. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Might get close to 2 feet of rain for the month. Nothing new, just November. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said: Nothing new, just November. Lol I’m sure that’s well above average but I know it takes a lot to impress you 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said: Lol I’m sure that’s well above average but I know it takes a lot to impress you After this past June, nothing is shocking anymore, well yet anyways..... in regards to our weather. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 30 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Winters have been back loaded significantly the last couple years. No reason this year won’t be the same OTOH, it could all just be random coincidence. Seattle didn’t miss having a snowy January by much in 2020 (Skagit County north had one, with full-on arctic blast conditions in Whatcom County and the BC Lower Mainland.) 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 The EPS looks like it's trying to force a Kona low by day 9 or so. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: The EPS looks like it's trying to force a Kona low by day 9 or so. That would be nice! $$$$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 13 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: I think we will see something decent this winter. Hopefully next month! November 1990 is a very good analogue for this month, and we all know (or rather, should know) what December 1990 was like (and the fun extended well into January 1991 in Whatcom and the BCLM). 2 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said: After this past June, nothing is shocking anymore, well yet anyways..... in regards to our weather. Has been some pretty interesting weather events this year…huge snowstorm in February, record breaking heatwave in June and some insane flooding and rainfall this fall. Hopefully something historically Arctic in December but we will see. If we get anything this winter I think it’s just going to be a few days in the low to mid 30s with a bit of snow that’s my prediction nothing crazy cold IMO. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 26, 2021 Report Share Posted November 26, 2021 The EPS control is showing a classic retrogression sequence for week two. 2 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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