PNW November 2021 Wx Obs/Discussion

[snow_wizard]

The 6z was certainly fun!  The 12z looks like it might get there too.

You can see in the early going how much further west the bulk of the positive height anoms are from the Western US / Pacific flat ridge.  That makes it so much more energy bleeds back into the block approaching from the west as it evolves.

[snow_wizard]

Interestingly the 6z EPS mean and control also show more energy bleeding back into the block as it approaches.

[snow_wizard]

There are good aspects to the 12z GFS in spite of it not looking as nice.  A lot of positive height energy building over the Pacific.

[van city]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

There are good aspects to the 12z GFS in spite of it not looking as nice.  A lot of positive height energy building over the Pacific.

Lol. You have been saying this for months. 

[MossMan]

This might come as a shock to many…But it’s raining!! 
.23” so far on the day, 13.31” for the month. 
Think SNOW and COLD!!!!! 

[Anti Marine Layer]

If low pressure brings rain and high pressure causes fog, then what brings sunshine?

[Christensen87]

Oh the joys of model riding and emotional whiplash. 

[snow_wizard]

Just based on the signs alone I think this has a shot at being the winter of the century so far.  That feeling is a bit dampened by negative QBO / cold ENSO aspect, but we have overcome that for cold / blocky winters before.  No doubt we have checked many of the boxes that lead up to some of the all time greats.  Can't wait to see what happens.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

Bastardi says no white Christmas for us...

 

I'm not a huge fan of 1967, but it did have some goodies in parts of Dec and Jan.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

If low pressure brings rain and high pressure causes fog, then what brings sunshine?

Northerly flow or strong offshore flow.

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Bastardi says no white Christmas for us...

 

 

We actually missed a white Christmas by only 3-4 days in 1967. That was a pretty nice pattern mid-month for the whole West.

[snow_wizard]

Looking at 1967 it was one of the drier Novembers on record and the autumn was completely wrong vs this year.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

We actually missed a white Christmas by only 3-4 days in 1967. That was a pretty nice pattern mid-month for the whole West.

Yeah....it wasn't too bad for the first half of the winter.

[snow_wizard]

The 12z isn't horrible over all.  Lots of blocking and it gets pretty nippy.

[ShawniganLake]

20 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

If low pressure brings rain and high pressure causes fog, then what brings sunshine?

Troughing and mixing

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The 12z isn't horrible over all.  Lots of blocking and it gets pretty nippy.

Yeah... it gets coolish towards the end. 

[ShawniganLake]

17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Just based on the signs alone I think this has a shot at being the winter of the century so far.  That feeling is a bit dampened by negative QBO / cold ENSO aspect, but we have overcome that for cold / blocky winters before.  No doubt we have checked many of the boxes that lead up to some of the all time greats.  Can't wait to see what happens.

You’re never one to set your expectations too low. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Salem had a pretty big snow event in January 1968, February was a pretty epic torch. 

[RentonHill]

GEM so far

[snow_wizard]

Several cold members on the GEFS around December 5 now.  That's new.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Salem had a pretty big snow event in January 1968, February was a pretty epic torch. 

Yeah....February was insanely warm.

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

You’re never one to set your expectations too low. 

All I said was based on the observed weather we have been seeing.  The technical side of things isn't as perfect.  That makes me more curious than normal to see how it's going to play out.

[snow_wizard]

A much blockier theme is certainly emerging on today's model runs.  With a significant Nina in progress I'll take my chances with a lot of blocking any day of the week.  One trend I really like is a lot more positive height anoms off the West Coast early in the game now.

[snow_wizard]

The GFS ensemble has some really cold members on this run.  A big cold snap is back on the table for early December it would appear.

[Skagit Weather]

Does anyone know the best site to download daily and/or monthly climatological data for a station? I've been wandering around the government websites for a while and I'm struggling to find daily downloadable data organized by month.

For example, if I wanted to look at daily highs/lows/precipitation for November of 1990 in Bellingham, what's the best website to find that data?

[Deweydog]

It’s coming.

But it’s not coming in early December.

Happy Black Friday!

[catnip]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS ensemble has some really cold members on this run.  A big cold snap is back on the table for early December it would appear.

Of course it is Mr. Snow_wizard. 

 

This is 2021, the #yearofextremes

 

Anything is possible. Even Feetz of snow for everyone.

 

Buckle up! It's going to be a wild winter!!!!

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Does anyone know the best site to download daily and/or monthly climatological data for a station? I've been wandering around the government websites for a while and I'm struggling to find daily downloadable data organized by month.

For example, if I wanted to look at daily highs/lows/precipitation for November of 1990 in Bellingham, what's the best website to find that data?

This one works pretty well…

https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

This one works pretty well…

https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

Not a shitepost and you’re not correcting someone else…must be feeling that Christmas spirit!

[Skagit Weather]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

This one works pretty well…

https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

Thanks, this is exactly what I've been looking for.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Not a shitepost and you’re not correcting someone else…must be feeling that Christmas spirit!

Thanks, Jesse!

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

This one works pretty well…

https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org/

Bookmarking that one.

[RentonHill]

9 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Thanks, Jesse!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Ah I knew the night shift run was too good to be true…

[TacomaWaWx]

Mild morning here…0.04” since midnight and 8.79” for the month. 

[van city]

2 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Ah I knew the night shift run was too good to be true…

At least gets nippy.

[TacomaWaWx]

Lol looks like I missed a lot last night and this morning. Anyways…looks like a pretty mild day and dry for the majority of it but the rain will be back. 

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Ah I knew the night shift run was too good to be true…

No love for the massive ensemble improvement??

[Phil]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Just based on the signs alone I think this has a shot at being the winter of the century so far.  That feeling is a bit dampened by negative QBO / cold ENSO aspect, but we have overcome that for cold / blocky winters before.  No doubt we have checked many of the boxes that lead up to some of the all time greats.  Can't wait to see what happens.

I don’t see how you can possibly say this.

Could certainly be a decent winter but there should be a concrete reason to call for a “winter of the century” on November 26th,

[Deweydog]

There’s a better than bad chance we’ve already had our “winter of the century.”

And barring a miracle of modern science, it’s the only fresh century any of us will see.