January 2022 Observations & Discussion

[Timmy Supercell]

The snow tonight stops literally just outside of town. Moved from one dome to another.

[Niko]

TWC:  for the month of January

[Mr Marine Layer]

Finally some snow in Omaha. 

[Mr Marine Layer]

26 minutes ago, Niko said:

TWC:  for the month of January

Texas toast

[Timmy Supercell]

3 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

Memphis under an advisory for 1-2" after tying the monthly record high of 79 yesterday lol

They also had near 80 on Christmas. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Definitely looks boring and warming up after this next week of alternating cold and warm days here.

 

[Andie]

7 hours ago, weatherfan2012 said:

Also this upcoming snow event here has literally just poped up in the last few days.so many worry about 7 day storm events but ofton times its the sort term ones that sneak up on many.Keep warm down in good ol Texas Andie.

We’ll hit a balmy 23 tonight according to Mets but I’m concerned it will go lower.   

My sprinkler system already is leaking today at a valve.  Service man can’t get here till Tuesday.  We tried to insulate more so it would not get worse.  Second year in a row to make us replace a valve system.   
I'm going to come up with a better system of insulation.  

This stinks and I think these deep winters are here for a good long while.  
Anyone have an opinion on the future of deep cold down here?  

[Andie]

4 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Texas toast

After this freeze, I’ll take take it baby!!!

[someweatherdude]

Falcon Lake, Texas hit 99°F today and if this temperature is verified it will be the hottest January temperature in US history.

[Andie]

Where’s that?  
Ft Worth hit 17* and had a wind chill of 5*!  
 

. Found it.   
It’s on the Rio across from Ciudad Nuevo Laredo, Mexico!!!!  

[IMoveALot_Weather]

2 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

Falcon Lake, Texas hit 99°F today and if this temperature is verified it will be the hottest January temperature in US history.

wut

That area had a cold front pass through at 5am this morning, and is currently under freeze watch. The high in the surrounding cities (Laredo and McAllen) were in the mid-70s.

Laredo did amazingly hit 94 yesterday. Maybe you meant yesterday.

[someweatherdude]

1 hour ago, FAR_Weather said:

wut

That area had a cold front pass through at 5am this morning, and is currently under freeze watch. The high in the surrounding cities (Laredo and McAllen) were in the mid-70s.

Laredo did amazingly hit 94 yesterday. Maybe you meant yesterday.

Yup.  Yesterday.  Just thought it was an interesting factoid to pass along.

[Tom]

I ventured out on my deck earlier for a couple minutes to "soak" in that cold air and it has quite the bite to it.  Currently +9F with clear skies and a nice snow cover.  Hopefully we can add a fresh coating over the next few days.  

After a volatile week of wx, it appears we will be heading towards a "pull back" of some sort next week across the western/central Sub.  We will be entering the period of the LRC (I know it hasn't been as good of a long lead indicator this year) where the NOV Ridge was in play.  Who remembers that Torch back in NOV?  Well, that Upper MW/Plains ridge is going to poke east for a period of time.  It looks like a good 5-day period of real warmth tries to make its way into the heartland.  I recall back on NOV 5th-9th there was a strong Upper Level ridge that migrated eastward and brought some real warm conditions over much of the Sub.  Sadly, this may eat away at our snow cover (except up north).  However, once we get towards the middle of the month, that ridge migrates west and pulls up the NW NAMER ridge (AKA NW FLOW) that will usher in the cold back into the pattern.  In fact, I'm seeing some pretty remarkable agreement in the LR among all the other models that the second half of JAN could be colder than what we are seeing now.  

 

[westMJim]

It is now official that going back to 1899 (when complete 12 month records are available) that 2021 with a mean of 50.8 at Grand Rapids was the 8th warmest on record. With a mean of 51.1 it was the 3rd warmest at Muskegon and it was the 4th warmest at Lansing. There is too much missing data to come up with the ranking at Kalamazoo.
It looks like the official overnight low at GRR was 13. Here at my house the overnight low was 16 that 16 is the current official reading at GRR here at my house with cloudy skies it is 18. There is 3.0" of snow on the ground here.

[Beltrami Island]

Looking at western Canada, these two graphics seem diametrically opposed.  Is it just to be concluded that the CFS is junk, or that the strength of the ridge in the west is being way overdone by the Euro?    

 

[Clinton]

Teleconnections have kinda taken a turn for the worse for the first half of the month.

MJO looks stuck in phase 7 for awhile

AO and NAO headed +

[Timmy Supercell]

Just as they said, no snow up at my place, but looked like a lot of people in southeastern KY got some.

[Niko]

Sunshine has finally creeped out. Not sure how long it has been since I saw it, but in any case, its 9F under partly to mostly sunny, under a nice snowcover.

Btw: My area Macomb county was the jackpot yesterday in snowfall totals. A few 5" totals were reported by me, not too far at all.

[Iowawx]

Are there any signs of a winter storm for Iowa anytime soon? Right now, the models don't have much of anything here for awhile. I sure hope that changes.

[Grizzcoat]

41 minutes ago, Iowawx said:

Are there any signs of a winter storm for Iowa anytime soon? Right now, the models don't have much of anything here for awhile. I sure hope that changes.

"Winter Storm"--- not happening in next 10-14 days. Maybe clipper like accumulations under 2" with a few CAA and WAA events but pretty much flipping back to the main pattern which is dry and seasonal (if not above once the snow is gone)

[Hawkeye]

Yep, there's nothing in sight for Iowa.  I'm glad we were able to cash in over the weekend because that's it for a while.

[Tom]

4 hours ago, Beltrami Island said:

Looking at western Canada, these two graphics seem diametrically opposed.  Is it just to be concluded that the CFS is junk, or that the strength of the ridge in the west is being way overdone by the Euro?    

 

Sometimes its right, but in this situation and time of year, I think its to strong with the +EPO influence.  It should be noted that the Euro has a bias with hanging troughs in the west to long.  Back in NOV, that trough never went away which was a dagger for bringing any cold into the lower 48.  The CFSv2 isn't backing down and going all-in with the cold coming back by the middle part of the month.  Interesting battle.  I'll post what the Euro Weeklies show later today.

[Niko]

Sure does feel like January out there.I was taking care of a few errands and decided to capture this photo. Temps started off in the S.D's this morning and staying in the 20s all day, along w a beautiful snowcover around. Feels awesome outside today, although, there is a biting wind at times. That crisp, cold air feels good!

 

[Hawkeye]

It's 50º on bare ground in Sioux City.

[Tom]

Today's Euro Weeklies removed the +EPO influence quicker, thus leading towards a shorter window of the "pull back" from previous runs.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Year in review from Omaha NWS

https://www.weather.gov/oax/2021TopEvents

[james1976]

Super boring here the next 10 days. No precip with up n down temps.

Also, Waterloo had their 8th warmest December on record at 31.4°

[Timmy Supercell]

36/29 in Ashland, coolest day in almost 1 month.

[Tom]

In regards to LR pattern, let's dissect the data a bit deeper between the CFSv2/Euro Weeklies.  The American model takes a trip through the very cold phases in the longer range and paints a great picture for Winter to return and lock in for the rest of this month.  Phase 8/1/2 are the holy grail for cold/snow....

 

Meanwhile, the Euro weeklies are slowly shifting more into Phase 8 but eventually into the "null phase".  While not an entirely bad situation, it does show members trying to keep it in the colder phases like the CFSv2.

 

What about storms???  Well, there is one part of this pattern that is perking my attn during the Week 2 period for our eastern Sub.  Specifically, the MW/GL's region is likely to benefit from this pattern post 13th/14th.  The GEFS/EPS are sniffing out a southern piece coming up thru the S MW into the Lower Lakes/OHV around this timeframe.  It appears to be a marginal set up but I think there will be enough residual cold air to produce some wintry precip.  Once this system departs, the pattern around the 15th and beyond looks to snap back into an overall colder one after a "pullback" of sorts.

The models all agree the EPO to turn back (-) and develop more high lat blocking (neutral AO/NAO)...the return of a N ATL blocking pattern is def showing signs of returning for mid and late JAN.  The last few frames of the animation below suggest this N ATL ridge to begin blossoming around the 16th and moving forward.

 

Low and behold, both the GEFS/EPS show this nicely in the Week 2 period....boy, look at the "look" off the GEFS and the strong STJ signal...southern stream track???

 

What is also interesting from these maps is we no longer have to deal with a stout -PNA signal in the LR due to the monster Aleutian trough that appears to be setting up.  Remember back in NOV/DEC that nasty Aleutian Ridge that seemingly never went away???  Well, here we are, the EPS is suggesting storm after storm to track south of the Aleutians (big southern stream signal) in the "not so distant future".

 

It's not surprising the LR GEFS and Euro Weeklies are quite wintry...they both suggest the north get it first, then it bleeds south post 18th...lot's of interesting maps to look at here that should keep things active after our quite period.

 

[Andie]

We’ll have a week of cold reprieve.   
Highs 50’s-60. Lows 20’s 30’s. 
Dry and some sun.  
 

Feeling for Virginians stuck 24 hrs on highway for 24 hrs plus. Cold, running out of fuel. After last yrs deep freeze in Texas I really know how these folks feel.  
Don’t forget to have an emergency survival kit in your cars.  
 

Edit:   Thurs/Fri deep cold returns. Low 20’s-teens.  Too dry for snow or ice.  We’re off to a very cold start.  Quite windy today as the early shift begins to appear.  

[Grizzcoat]

Some very cold places just set low temp records--- Grand Forks,ND and Hibbing,MN--- both near -40F which is about as cold as it gets- even later in winter when it's colder- hence the records.

 

 

 

[Mr Marine Layer]

On 1/3/2022 at 2:55 PM, OmahaSnowFan said:

Year in review from Omaha NWS

https://www.weather.gov/oax/2021TopEvents

Omaha got some nice weather events in 2021, but today Biden said there's hope for 2020.

Also, these are more fun.

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Down to 21 degrees already after a high of 43 and the airport just had a 58 mph wind gust. 
It’s going to be rough tomorrow at drop off and pick up for the kids at school.

[Timmy Supercell]

 

[Tom]

While the Arctic Front barrels its way through MBY (literally as I speak)...I'm always in the search for Winter Wx...

 

Gosh, am I grateful to have snow OTG and fortunate to witness a nice white landscape all the while this Arctic invasion hits for a few days.  It would have been an entirely different story if there was brown grass to deal with...anyway, on the topic of potential systems, the models are still trying to sniff out a system around the 13th-15th timeframe.  At this range, it looks like we will be tracking a northern piece coming S/SE of the Canadien prairies and potentially phasing with a southern piece somewhere over the eastern Sub.  This fits the LRC picture of a massive Veteran's Day GL's storm that walloped the GL's with high winds, heavy precip, etc.  It was one of the signature storms of the Autumn.  Let's see how this unfolds.

11/11/21 Surface Map...

 

 

[Niko]

The EC could be in for one heck of a Winterstorm w/ 1-2 Feet of snow.  Places from DC-BOS...lookout.

[Hawkeye]

36 minutes ago, Niko said:

The EC could be in for one heck of a Winterstorm w/ 1-2 Feet of snow.  Places from DC-BOS...lookout.

Models have trended much weaker and farther out to sea.  The latest GFS, Euro, and NAM show no more than 1-3" from Philly to Boston.

[gabel23]

7 hours ago, Tom said:

While the Arctic Front barrels its way through MBY (literally as I speak)...I'm always in the search for Winter Wx...

 

Gosh, am I grateful to have snow OTG and fortunate to witness a nice white landscape all the while this Arctic invasion hits for a few days.  It would have been an entirely different story if there was brown grass to deal with...anyway, on the topic of potential systems, the models are still trying to sniff out a system around the 13th-15th timeframe.  At this range, it looks like we will be tracking a northern piece coming S/SE of the Canadien prairies and potentially phasing with a southern piece somewhere over the eastern Sub.  This fits the LRC picture of a massive Veteran's Day GL's storm that walloped the GL's with high winds, heavy precip, etc.  It was one of the signature storms of the Autumn.  Let's see how this unfolds.

11/11/21 Surface Map...

 

 

 

Nothing worse than brown grass and wind chills of -20! That's what we have; just not a good year for my area! Hopefully things change moving forward! 

[snowstorm83]

56 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Nothing worse than brown grass and wind chills of -20! That's what we have; just not a good year for my area! Hopefully things change moving forward! 

Thru at least the next 10 days looks pretty bleak for eastern Nebraska. A more active late Jan thru Feb will be better late than never, hopefully not a "winter never shows up" like 2019-20. 

[Grizzcoat]

For much of ND/ N.MN this will be the coldest start for the first 10 days of JAN in recent memory. Looking up stats right now and nothing in the last 25 years will come close for first 1/3rd of month. -- that includes Jan 1994 and 1996 / 2014- all 3 brutal. 96 waned until the end of the month with all time cold- 94' peaked mid month. 14' was consistent.  Will be fun following an almost sure Top 10 cold JAN for the areas above.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Might as well be warm if it isn’t going to snow.

[Grizzcoat]

Much of NEB seems to be screwed this year. Secondly is much of IA- at least for snow, its still darn right cold even for IA standards - and will likely be top 12 cold by the 10th. No one seems to focusing on the cold in ND in N.MN-- it's beginning to take on a historic pattern. But no dice of TWC covering it like they do stranded idiots on a freeway out east. I get it. But cmon on man- learn something about the past. Not your first rodeo.

[snowstorm83]

21 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Much of NEB seems to be screwed this year. Secondly is much of IA- at least for snow, its still darn right cold even for IA standards - and will likely be top 12 cold by the 10th. No one seems to focusing on the cold in ND in N.MN-- it's beginning to take on a historic pattern. But no dice of TWC covering it like they do stranded idiots on a freeway out east. I get it. But cmon on man- learn something about the past. Not your first rodeo.

I-95 has always been prone to random dumps of snow yet it's the end of the world every time it happens. Not to mention when DC and NYC dip below 20 everybody freaks out and it's considered an arctic blast LOL 

[Hawkeye]

With the farther-ene location and solid snow cover, it should be much colder here than in Omaha over the next ten days.

[Niko]

4 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Models have trended much weaker and farther out to sea.  The latest GFS, Euro, and NAM show no more than 1-3" from Philly to Boston.

Yes, substantially weaker...2-4" at the most (leading w/2-3"). Up by Portland, ME, 6-12" is a good bet as the storm intensifies.

[Andie]

Hit 60 and sunny today.   
Tomorrow cloudy 40 with a low of 24 Wind gusty at 20 +/-.

 We’re back on the roller coaster.  

[Timmy Supercell]

Here comes the first real snowfall. The 0.1" a month ago would be considered a dusting/trace by most people.

[Thunder98]

 

The Texas Panhandle is seeing very bipolar weather this week. Tomorrow Pampa, TX has a forecast high of only 27F Thursday with a lows in the single digits. 2 days later the high is near 70F! On Sunday temperatures drop back down to the 40's.

[Timmy Supercell]

[Mr Marine Layer]

5 hours ago, Thunder98 said:

 

The Texas Panhandle is seeing very bipolar weather this week. Tomorrow Pampa, TX has a forecast high of only 27F Thursday with a lows in the single digits. 2 days later the high is near 70F! On Sunday temperatures drop back down to the 40's.