MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 I hate to say it but this so far isn't looking good south of Everett. Some of the temps I watch in the Olympics are above freezing already. Hopefully the offshore ramps up more and we might be ok. Going to be close. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, hawkstwelve said: 18z 3km NAM coming in with even less than it's already-meager 12z amounts, except for Whatcom. This really feels like a situation where Whatcom scores a really nice event while almost everyone else transitions to rain fairly quickly. We have a slight east wind here but it's not doing much to drive the temp or DPs down. The SEA-EAT just dropped to a negative mb - now sitting at -0.7mb. Once WAA starts in earnest it should quickly overcome that very weak outflow and kill the hopes of Puget Sounders pretty quickly. I agree. Just not any offshore flow yet to matter. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusky Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 24 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: I didn't add this info but mine isn't stock. Has a tune and pulley swap. Makes about 800 hp. I'll trade you for a 2008 Honda Pilot with whiny fans and permanent check engine lights 1 Quote My Weather Station: https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5. My Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I should have read this before I posted what I just posted... lol Don't stop now, it worked for us in December. Exactly one month ago to the day! 5 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: I hate to say it but this so far isn't looking good south of Everett. Some of the temps I watch in the Olympics are above freezing already. Hopefully the offshore ramps up more and we might be ok. Going to be close. I just cleared an inch or two of complete slop from the driveway that fell yesterday. It was so thick it was clogging the snowblower and coming out like toothpaste from a tube. Its very mushy and damp out here. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 The east wind here is definitely impeding the heavier precip as it gets closer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, Kayla said: Don't stop now, it worked for us in December. Exactly one month ago to the day! It’s not coming. Good news is, this is NOT a disastrous outcome considering it already came. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: On a semi-related note, the GFS snow maps and cold air predictions have just become laughable. I don't trust jack crap that the GFS spits out now for snow. Plus, I hate how it builds out the snow accumulation from the mountains with almost straight lines. It just screams "don't trust me" as the N/S lines expand westward with seemingly no thought of terrain influences. Bugs the crap outta me. Weren’t we just last night singing the GFS’s praises because of surface temps in the Fraser outflow? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: It’s not coming. Good news is, this is NOT a disastrous outcome considering it already came. The odds are really against us after what just happened, and that sux for you guy's down south. I can't consider it a good winter for the area if Portland doesn't score. I really doubt we see anything but a backdoor blast maybe or some really cold onshore. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 37 now. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: The odds are really against us after what just happened, and that sux for you guy's down south. I can't consider it a good winter for the area if Portland doesn't score. I really doubt we see anything but a backdoor blast maybe or some really cold onshore. Last week was pretty solid down here considering how unfavorable true north/south blasts can play out south of about Chehalis or so. Especially even further down the valley as they maxed out their potential during the onshore flow segment. In the big picture, it’s easy to look at last week as a multi-decadal event given the outcome in the Fraser and Okanogan valleys. 4 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 Shelton 36 36 rain. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 35 and light drizzle and snizzle continuing. I think my best shot (small chance) of anything significant will be between 3 and 7 and then a torch fest all night. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: Last week was pretty solid down here considering how unfavorable true north/south blasts can play out south of about Chehalis or so. Especially even further down the valley as they maxed out their potential during the onshore flow segment. In the big picture, it’s easy to look at last week as a multi-decadal event given the outcome in the Fraser and Okanogan valleys. The Omak observed Weather for a couple day's was remarkable. About the coldest outflow you could ever expect there. 1 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 18 minutes ago, Deweydog said: It’s not coming. Good news is, this is NOT a disastrous outcome considering it already came. Not even some backdoor cold on ~20th? Bold prediction... I'm feeling a 2014 type event for PDX by late Jan/early Feb. 3 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, Kayla said: Not even some back door cold on ~20th? Bold prediction... I'm feeling a 2014 type event for PDX by late Jan/early Feb. I think we’re going to see atleast one more interesting event this winter. Maybe not to the extent of the December event but fun still. 2 1 2 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 Went outside and all the raindrops are positive splats. Rain looks like it’s “falling a bit slower” to me. I definitely think there will be atleast some snow in the air today but I’m more doubtful about accumulating snow than I was yesterday. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post MossMan Posted January 5, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 Lovely morning in Skykomish. Was 32 and snowing when I was there between 10:30 and 11am. 8 2 1 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 22 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said: It happened to model that slightly better than the Euro. Doesn't mean it hasn't been otherwise atrocious at bringing in cold air too quickly/strongly. Just look at last Sunday for an example. I'm having a very hard time trusting anything that model shows right now. It's in the doghouse as far as I'm concerned. It’s proven this time and time again, yet we repeatedly drink from its trough. The issues have been amplified since the switch to the “new and improved” version back in 2019. It’s kind of disappointing that we can’t look at the legacy version anymore for a direct comparison, but after its performance in January 2020, it was crystal clear that its terrain issues were for whatever reason amplified significantly. That said, the problem we will always run into with any model is that the situations where we’re the most desperate for model accuracy are the ones where they will inherently struggle. Predicting maple syrup’s penetration southward/westward through all of our cracks is not an easy task, especially in our age of perennial lacking when it comes to 500mb support. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 Photo by Steve Pierce (maybe he lurks here?). Big piles in Zigzag. 5 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 This Thunder98 guy must really be upset, going through and giving everyone a weenie tag lol 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 2 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said: Photo by Steve Pierce (maybe he lurks here?). Big piles in Zigzag. Love Steve, his energy is infectious... big piles of powder. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 6 minutes ago, Kayla said: Not even some backdoor cold on ~20th? Bold prediction... I'm feeling a 2014 type event for PDX by late Jan/early Feb. 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 So no snow today now except for extreme northern Whatcom Co. Too bad. I still think my house will get 2-4” before the stupid southerlies kick in. 2 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 16 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: The Omak observed Weather for a couple day's was remarkable. About the coldest outflow you could ever expect there. I haven’t done any research because I’m a lazy f*ck but that max of 2 on the 27th has to be at least close to a record. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 It wouldn’t surprise me if the pattern we are exiting was our one big opportunity. We’ve scored so often in February that it’s possible, but the chances we see a regional blast are already starting to fade. I agree with Dewey. Western Oregon got really lucky, this could have turned out to be much more frustrating for us. 1 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T-Town Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 9 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said: Went outside and all the raindrops are positive splats. Rain looks like it’s “falling a bit slower” to me. I definitely think there will be atleast some snow in the air today but I’m more doubtful about accumulating snow than I was yesterday. Definitely has that look. Drops are hitting my east windows, which is a good sign for at least some flakes in the air. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 Seeing snow in February is possible. Just don't expect another Feb 2019. Maybe something closer to 2018. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, T-Town said: Definitely has that look. Drops are hitting my east windows, which is a good sign for at least some flakes in the air. There’s some very light offshore flow here. Needs to pick up some if we are going to get anything. Even if we don’t score anything today it’s been a pretty remarkable stretch of snow and cold here as it is. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: It wouldn’t surprise me if the pattern we are exiting was our one big opportunity. We’ve scored so often in February that it’s possible, but the chances we see a regional blast are already starting to fade. I agree with Dewey. Western Oregon got really lucky, this could have turned out to be much more frustrating for us. It just would be really tough to get another blast like we just had imo. When you have something like we just did you start feeling greedy expecting anymore. Hopefully I'm wrong especially for you guys down there. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 16 minutes ago, MossMan said: Lovely morning in Skykomish. Was 32 and snowing when I was there between 10:30 and 11am. I was waiting for this! Wish I had any reason to go out there. 1 Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 22 minutes ago, Kayla said: Not even some backdoor cold on ~20th? Bold prediction... I'm feeling a 2014 type event for PDX by late Jan/early Feb. 2014 type events are pretty rare.... I think a backdoor brush-by is the most likely scenario. Perhaps something like late January 2009. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 That Skykomish VirtualRail webcam is down. Comments speculating that power was knocked out. Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 Hey, here’s how you can help and participate. It’s going to be quite crucial during the winter months. Get the mPING reports going. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 Personally I am much more invested in a cool wet spring. 2 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 Just now, jakerepp said: I was waiting for this! Wish I had any reason to go out there. Wasn’t a lot of parking due to the snow so my usual parking spot by the picnic table was not accessible and between my work van and the person I was meeting, his van we were partially blocking other cars so we had to make it quick so that was the reason for the crummy pics…However it was heaven on earth!! Was a fair amount of snow from Sultan and points east but it wad 33-34 degrees and was falling off the trees and even drizzling…But you get one mile from Skykomish and it’s a different world. 32 and snowing, no melting, Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 PM 925s Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, jakerepp said: That Skykomish VirtualRail webcam is down. Comments speculating that power was knocked out. There was a big presence of power crews about 2-3 miles west of Skykomish, they were offloading a snowcat off a trailer and was looking to head down a unplowed road. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 1 minute ago, BLI snowman said: 2014 type events are pretty rare.... I think a backdoor brush-by is the most likely scenario. Perhaps something like late January 2009. That I could definitely see. I was thinking there are some similarities to 2008 into 2009 in that we had the big event, then a little remnant fun followed by the big PNA ridging in January. Ultimately we saw a somewhat ragged period of retrogression… Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 5, 2022 Report Share Posted January 5, 2022 10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: It wouldn’t surprise me if the pattern we are exiting was our one big opportunity. We’ve scored so often in February that it’s possible, but the chances we see a regional blast are already starting to fade. I agree with Dewey. Western Oregon got really lucky, this could have turned out to be much more frustrating for us. Sometimes worth remembering that we’re simply farther south and have a warmer climate than say, NW WA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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