November 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

Been saying it and seeing this possible evolution coming for a long time. Yes, the coldest maps you will see at the fantasy ranges are most likely overdone (so are the warmest) but I still hold position that a torch December is looking less and less likely every day. So once again, follow the progression.

If we do get arctic shots this season, I think it has to happen when the EPO tanks and I can see that happening occasionally this season as the warm waters will be present in the NE PAC and we have seen it the past 2 winter seasons.  I just want to see the blocking hook over the top and see both the AO/NAO go negative so we can slow down the pattern and blow up monster storm systems.  

[Geos]

I'll probably start a storm thread in the morning. I'm almost convinced that this storm will happen somewhere across the corn belt and southern GL's.

 

GFS Wxbell map. Snagged it from Amwx - don't have any others further west.

 

[james1976]

You guys are in the bullseye! This run gives me 6+ too.

[Money]

Just need a 30 mile shift north lol

[Money]

Gem looks like gfs

[james1976]

Gem looks like gfs

I heard 12z GEM wasn't showing much. What is 00z run showing?

[bud2380]

Canadian looking similar to gfs

[Tom]

I've seen these type of Pacific systems fade before, but this one seems to be increasing in intensity.  Don't want to get ahead of myself, but once this storm gets sampled this can become one exciting hybrid esp if it can dig!

[Money]

Has a max of about 15 mm near Chicago at hr 120 which is about 0.6 qpf with more that fell before that

[bud2380]

[james1976]

image.jpg

Very nice. Quite the change from 12z run!

[Tom]

Nice to see this Forum light up as we have our first legit chance of tracking a decent snowstorm....

[OKwx2k4]

If we do get arctic shots this season, I think it has to happen when the EPO tanks and I can see that happening occasionally this season as the warm waters will be present in the NE PAC and we have seen it the past 2 winter seasons. I just want to see the blocking hook over the top and see both the AO/NAO go negative so we can slow down the pattern and blow up monster storm systems.

I still think that the AO/NAO will be negative sooner rather than later as well. It's another necessary part of the pattern evolution in my opinion. If I'm wrong then I'm perfectly ok with admitting I am.

[Andrew NE]

Lots of precipitation on the GFS just not much cool air to work with in the long range.

[Tom]

I still think that the AO/NAO will be negative sooner rather than later as well. It's another necessary part of the pattern evolution in my opinion. If I'm wrong then I'm perfectly ok with admitting I am.

Ditto, I value those who actually put the time and effort into researching and analyzing the pattern.  Nobody is perfect, but its fun trying to use different theories/pattern recognition techniques to forecast both short/long term weather patterns.

[james1976]

Anyone buying the warm look the GFS has for late Nov? That would be a huge waste of that Thanksgiving storm.

[Geos]

If we do get arctic shots this season, I think it has to happen when the EPO tanks and I can see that happening occasionally this season as the warm waters will be present in the NE PAC and we have seen it the past 2 winter seasons.  I just want to see the blocking hook over the top and see both the AO/NAO go negative so we can slow down the pattern and blow up monster storm systems.  

 

One thing we need is the hook over the top or at least the Alaskan ridge to build over the state. Need to dislodge/split up that polar vortex in the stratosphere in the next couple weeks. 

[Tom]

Lots of precipitation on the GFS just not much cool air to work with in the long range.

Agree, but I think it's missing the AO.  GFS/EURO night and day post Day 5....

[Tom]

Anyone buying the warm look the GFS has for late Nov? That would be a huge waste of that Thanksgiving storm.

None, EPO will be in the tank and both AO/NAO won't be sky high.  I am a bit concerned around here but farther west like your region and the Plains have a shot at a good system.

[Andrew NE]

I don't think anyone wants to buy into it. Haha. But it has done a decent job picking out temp departures both above and below normal this fall. Hoping we can get some push of cold air to round out Nov.

[Tom]

One thing we need is the hook over the top or at least the Alaskan ridge to build over the state. Need to dislodge/split up that polar vortex in the stratosphere in the next couple weeks. 

Unlike last year and the year before, we haven't really seen too much warming in the stratosphere this season...I don't see too many Polar Vortex intrusions, but moreso, very strong Arctic HP's instead...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp30anim.gif

[Tom]

Another look on the 00z GGEM...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2015111700/gem_asnow_ncus_21.png

[Money]

Ukie looks really good as well. 1001 L in W michigan at hr 120

[Jaycee]

**sees storm track, desperately tries not to complain about dry slot like typical nebraskan**

[GDR]

Looks like EPO is heading pack into a positive phase next week.

[james1976]

6z GFS still on board for Friday. How was Euro?

[OKwx2k4]

One thing we need is the hook over the top or at least the Alaskan ridge to build over the state. Need to dislodge/split up that polar vortex in the stratosphere in the next couple weeks.

According to the newest installment of the JMA, this may be what it is showing. Has a NW to SE tilt to the Aleutian low which would most likely pull the ridge back over the top.

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/zpcmap.php

[educatorjen]

**sees storm track, desperately tries not to complain about dry slot like typical nebraskan**

Right?

[Tom]

The GFS is good at picking up large-scale pattern changes in the long range, so I wouldn't immediately discount it.

Yup, 06z GFS onto something...EPO off the charts that run!  

[gosaints]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015111700/ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_11.png

[gosaints]

That has bomb potential

[OKwx2k4]

Wow. Yeah, that could be ridiculous.

[Tom]

Neat Tweet from the astronaut Scott Kelly...can you spot the Great Lakes???

 

 

 

00z Euro Ensembles for the system around Thanksgiving Day showing more snowy runs from the Plains/Midwest/Lakes.  Week 2 starting to show more troughing in the southern Plains.

 

@ OKwx2k4, there are signs your Winter season may be starting very late this month.

[OKwx2k4]

Yes! Tom I just saw the new epo charts. Holy moly! They need to extend the chart on the bottom end. Lol. The November 29-December 2 time frame has a whole lot of interest for my area. I'm glad a lot of you are going to get to see some good white stuff here before long.

[Tom]

12z GFS tugging down more cold air for next Wed...looking more organized this run...just getting started...

 

12z GFS...vs 06z GFS....

 

[Tom]

12z GFS long range....Brutal!  

 

If that is what ends up happening, Euro Ensembles and East Asian Theory will have worked out like a charm.  Let's see. 

 

Edit: Another off the charts -EPO run.

[Geos]

12z GFS long range....Brutal!  

 

If that is what ends up happening, Euro Ensembles and East Asian Theory will have worked out like a charm.  Let's see. 

 

Edit: Another off the charts -EPO run.

 

Where are you finding the charts at? I know they are on Weatherbell... but any free sites?

[Tom]

Where are you finding the charts at? I know they are on Weatherbell... but any free sites?

I've only found them on WxBell...

[gosaints]

Where are you finding the charts at? I know they are on Weatherbell... but any free sites?

best I can find

 

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png

[Tom]

best I can find

 

ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png

Wierd, those EPO indices are much higher compared to the 06z/12z GFS run....WxBell has them as low as -5 (the max the chart shows) it even goes below that mark.