February 2022 Observations and Discussions

[Tom]

3 hours ago, Andie said:

After last winter most Texans have armed up for light and warmth.  I have solar camping lights and charger for the phone. Have an in-line gas grill so we’ll eat but my better half must go to work as he’s part of emergency response for the Fleet.  He keeps the City Fleet on the road and fueled. Generators fueled for police and fire.  
 

I’m lucky. I have emergency response “training” from one of the best.  
However,  cold is cold and I don’t want a repeat.  
The drought has only complicated things with dry kill.  Tough on wildlife too.  
 

That said I think this may be the beginning of a lengthy pattern.  
What say you to that?

@TomNever liked Feb much. We get our ugliest weather then. Usually ice.  Deadly down here.  Not big on astrology.

Andie, mid-month is my prediction to look for a major Arctic push down south...could last several days if it lines up which could rival last year.  I'll keep ya posted as we get closer towards the 13th-15th period.

[OmahaSnowFan]

8 hours ago, GDR said:

Nice big dry blob in the heart of the country

I guess he missed that part.

[OmahaSnowFan]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

Andie, mid-month is my prediction to look for a major Arctic push down south...could last several days if it lines up which could rival last year.  I'll keep ya posted as we get closer towards the 13th-15th period.

I would get on the horn with the local government if it's going to rival last years. You remember how bad it was, correct? Or is this just more hyperbole?

https://www.weather.gov/hgx/2021ValentineStorm

[OmahaSnowFan]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_2021_North_American_cold_wave

With the record cold advancing so far south, effects were crippling and widespread. Many regions within the Southern Plains such as Oklahoma, Arkansas and Texas broke or nearly reached record-low temperatures not seen in decades or even a century. In the latter state of Texas, the record cold caused enormous strain on the power grid and froze pipelines, leading millions to lose power and many pipes to burst. At least 278 people were killed directly or indirectly by severe cold,^{[4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11]} and the damages are estimated to exceed $198.575 billion (2021 USD), including at least $197.075 billion in the United States and $1.5 billion in Mexico.^[1][2][3]

[Tom]

6 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I would get on the horn with the local government if it's going to rival last years. You remember how bad it was, correct? Or is this just more hyperbole?

https://www.weather.gov/hgx/2021ValentineStorm

Rival the weather impacts, not the devastation.  Nobody said this…only you are implying that I’m suggesting it could rival the devastation.  That is completely wrong.  Your being the hype here.

[Timmy Supercell]

First day to hit 60 in 2022 and mosquitos are out. 

Well, one anyway.

[jcwxguy]

6 hours ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

First day to hit 60 in 2022 and mosquitos are out. 

Well, one anyway.

i saw a wasp on monday, here in nebraska 

[gabel23]

1 hour ago, jcwxguy said:

i saw a wasp on monday, here in nebraska 

I heard from a guy that goes to our church he saw some trees budding. Pretty bizarre winter; by far the warmest and driest in recent memory. Only other ones that come to mind is the winters of 2011-12 and 2012-13. We had a major blizzard in the December of 2012 winter at least. The 11-12 year we went into a major drought that summer. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

8 hours ago, Tom said:

Rival the weather impacts, not the devastation.  Nobody said this…only you are implying that I’m suggesting it could rival the devastation.  That is completely wrong.  Your being the hype here.

I'm the hype? Coming from the king of hype on here?!

You specifically mentioned last year and are saying 2 weeks away you think it could rival last year. What would make it different then? The Texas power grid isn't any better and even Andie has said that.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I'm the hype? Coming from the king of hype on here?!

You specifically mentioned last year and are saying 2 weeks away you think it could rival last year. What would make it different then? The Texas power grid isn't any better and even Andie has said that.

My posts are not intended to hype anything.  It's rather amusing to me how my beliefs and predictions have such an impact to reel you in every single time.  Its amazing actually.

I guess it won't ever stop.  Oh well, that good ol' "ignore" button would be ideal right now...carry on! 

[Tom]

Where do we go from here???  Is Round 2 in the works after a Lull??  Well, the exception will be the N GL's region where a clipper train is poised to set up but then around the 10th-12th the pattern turns ripe for a series of systems to train over the Upper MW/MW/GL's region.  The return of the Hudson Bay Vortex alongside a strong N Stream Jet will pave the way for PAC systems to ride underneath the "belly of the beast" up north.

 

Tonight's 0z GEFS illustrating the potential...the 0z EPS is nearly identical for the post 11th period...unfortunately, those out west it's not looking to good just yet.  I'm hopeful that towards the later half of FEB it'll pick up into the central Plains states.  In the meantime, the focus will remain where the pattern is ongoing as we speak.

 

0z EPS 5-day 500mb mean pattern looks like it wants to unleash the "Nanook from the North"...0z GEFS agree...

[Andie]

18 hours ago, Tom said:

Andie, mid-month is my prediction to look for a major Arctic push down south...could last several days if it lines up which could rival last year.  I'll keep ya posted as we get closer towards the 13th-15th period.

Thank you Tom!  I’ve forwarded this to my husband. He’s the City Fleet Manager that keeps responders on the road.  Keep me abreast of any developments, please.  
I’ve kept him informed through you guys and the NWS and the City was prepped very early as a result.  
 

Rain will turn over to ice around 3-4 pm today. Early going home traffic.  All City generators are kept topped off after last years Blast.  
Im ready here at home. If the power co is fool enough to go black, I’m ready.
 

Can’t believe we could have 2 of these this year but Mini Ice Age is introducing itself I suppose.  New normal?  

[westMJim]

I recorded 0.16" of rain yesterday and last night. The high here was 47. The snow depth is now down to around 1.5" and there are now some bare spots showing in places. At this time there is light snow falling with a current temperature of 27.  and there is around 0.2" of new snow on the ground. I have a feeling that here in the NW side of GR that there may not be more than a inch or so of new snow fall today. For those that like the snow and live to the south or southeast of GR I hope you enjoy your snow fall. If you live north or NW of Grand Rapids and like snow well better luck next time. For what it is worth it looks like Punxsutawney Phil seen his shallow even thru the clouds and there could be at least 6 more weeks of winter (maybe)

[Timmy Supercell]

10 hours ago, Tom said:

My posts are not intended to hype anything.  It's rather amusing to me how my beliefs and predictions have such an impact to reel you in every single time.  Its amazing actually.

I guess it won't ever stop.  Oh well, that good ol' "ignore" button would be ideal right now...carry on! 

Since I haven't experimented with that feature yet, what exactly does it do? 

That would suck if it actually hides your posts from said user.

[OmahaSnowFan]

4 hours ago, Andie said:

Thank you Tom!  I’ve forwarded this to my husband. He’s the City Fleet Manager that keeps responders on the road.  Keep me abreast of any developments, please.  
I’ve kept him informed through you guys and the NWS and the City was prepped very early as a result.  
 

Rain will turn over to ice around 3-4 pm today. Early going home traffic.  All City generators are kept topped off after last years Blast.  
Im ready here at home. If the power co is fool enough to go black, I’m ready.
 

Can’t believe we could have 2 of these this year but Mini Ice Age is introducing itself I suppose.  New normal?  

It would seem to be pretty hard to get a mini ice age, when the US just had it's warmest December ever, we had 120 tornadoes in December from freaking Nebraska to Wisconsin, and last I heard the GL's were still unfrozen.

[OmahaSnowFan]

8 hours ago, Tom said:

Where do we go from here???  Is Round 2 in the works after a Lull??  Well, the exception will be the N GL's region where a clipper train is poised to set up but then around the 10th-12th the pattern turns ripe for a series of systems to train over the Upper MW/MW/GL's region.  The return of the Hudson Bay Vortex alongside a strong N Stream Jet will pave the way for PAC systems to ride underneath the "belly of the beast" up north.

 

Tonight's 0z GEFS illustrating the potential...the 0z EPS is nearly identical for the post 11th period...unfortunately, those out west it's not looking to good just yet.  I'm hopeful that towards the later half of FEB it'll pick up into the central Plains states.  In the meantime, the focus will remain where the pattern is ongoing as we speak.

 

0z EPS 5-day 500mb mean pattern looks like it wants to unleash the "Nanook from the North"...0z GEFS agree...

Are the next 2-4 weeks going to rival what we saw last year?  Or the year prior to that where we saw multiple visits from the Polar Vortex???  We may be on the verge of something really special.  I'm prob going to get some heat from a few of you on here, but that's ok, bc I'm going all-in that this winter will be saved for many on here.  The backloaded winter of '21-'22 is set to begin.

 

So one big storm that hits southeast of KC to southern Michigan and a couple of stretches of clippers for the GL's is all we're going to get from this 2-4 weeks of "something really special"?

[Tom]

9 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Are the next 2-4 weeks going to rival what we saw last year?  Or the year prior to that where we saw multiple visits from the Polar Vortex???  We may be on the verge of something really special.  I'm prob going to get some heat from a few of you on here, but that's ok, bc I'm going all-in that this winter will be saved for many on here.  The backloaded winter of '21-'22 is set to begin.

 

So one big storm that hits southeast of KC to southern Michigan and a couple of stretches of clippers for the GL's is all we're going to get from this 2-4 weeks of "something really special"?

That timeline is still in play OmahaSnowFan, after this storm departs the pattern is set to reload right around the 10th-12th.  Those dates are still in play...your jumping the gun...many on the eastern side of this Sub will benefit some more.  After this storm, ORD is set to be above normal in the snow dept and that is a remarkable turnaround from the 6" we started off with to open JAN I believe it was.  My call is that ORD hits near between 25-30" by end of FEB.  That is about double from the current 16.2" season tally (not including this storms snowfall).  Gutsy call?  You can say so, but the pattern is ripe around here....not so much by you.

[IMoveALot_Weather]

59 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Since I haven't experimented with that feature yet, what exactly does it do? 

That would suck if it actually hides your posts from said user.

It came in good use during the Great War of 2017-2018 between Wisconsin and Nebraska posters on here. If you block someone, it just hides the posts from that someone.

Pretty sure one or two users still have me ignored from that winter on here...

[Andie]

2 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

It would seem to be pretty hard to get a mini ice age, when the US just had it's warmest December ever, we had 120 tornadoes in December from freaking Nebraska to Wisconsin, and last I heard the GL's were still unfrozen.

I’m just echoing what I’ve read from climatologists when they speak over the trend for next 50 yrs. 
All we can do is wait and observe.

One things for sure we’re going to get this deep ice visit and I’m reading of a 2nd around the 15th.  
Very unusual for us.   

[james1976]

59 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

This looks almost exactly like the last couple of days.  Will KC be too far NW again?  This February is looking like a repeat of a year ago with KC just missing the heavy stuff to the south. 

Feel ya. Bad thing about these big cold pushes.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Looking nice around here with the brown ground!

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 1. Wind chill values as low as -14. North northeast wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Thursday

Sunny, with a high near 18. Wind chill values as low as -16. North northeast wind 6 to 11 mph becoming light northeast in the afternoon.

Thursday Night

Clear, with a low around 6. Light and variable wind becoming south southwest 5 to 8 mph in the evening.

Friday

Sunny, with a high near 34. South southwest wind 7 to 10 mph becoming north northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.

Friday Night

Clear, with a low around 16. North wind 6 to 13 mph becoming south after midnight.

Saturday

Sunny, with a high near 47.

Saturday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 23.

Sunday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 34.

Sunday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 16.

Monday

Sunny, with a high near 48.

Monday Night

Clear, with a low around 28.

Tuesday

Sunny, with a high near 56.

Tuesday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 30.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 51.

[OmahaSnowFan]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

That timeline is still in play OmahaSnowFan, after this storm departs the pattern is set to reload right around the 10th-12th.  Those dates are still in play...your jumping the gun...many on the eastern side of this Sub will benefit some more.  After this storm, ORD is set to be above normal in the snow dept and that is a remarkable turnaround from the 6" we started off with to open JAN I believe it was.  My call is that ORD hits near between 25-30" by end of FEB.  That is about double from the current 16.2" season tally (not including this storms snowfall).  Gutsy call?  You can say so, but the pattern is ripe around here....not so much by you.

Classic spin on your part. Something special is some clippers and one big storm in 4 weeks? Huh. You also seem to be ignoring the rest of the posters that are asking where's winter as well......

[Tom]

5 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Classic spin on your part. Something special is some clippers and one big storm in 4 weeks? Huh. You also seem to be ignoring the rest of the posters that are asking where's winter as well......

I’ve stated over and over that the eastern sub would be benefiting more than the western parts.  I’ve also said that towards the later part of Feb there would be more opportunities out west.  
 

IMO, “something special” is when we are tracking systems and not staying underneath a Resilient Ridge or AN temp regime in Winter.  When you have cold temps and a snow pack that sticks around for days/weeks and doesn’t melt, that is real winter for me.  Feb is going to turn out to be one of the better months of Met winter in terms of cold and storms.  You’ll see.  Again, more so out here than the western Sub until possibly later in Feb.  You’ll prob be sitting on the sidelines it appears for a little while.

[Tom]

Just now, someweatherdude said:

I'm in the western sub too.  I don't want to sit on the sidelines.  I want to be in the game. 

I would consider KC as being more central than western.  There will be more chances coming up between 10th-15th down there.  That -EPO looks strong in the Week 2 period and -PNA pattern bode well to fire up a storm track similar to this current storm.

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Also. 

Agree.  

[Tom]

5 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

I'll admit that I sometimes find myself needing to blame someone when it doesn't happen for me.  Forecasters are an easy target.  I wanted to tell Gary yesterday to jump in a lake.  There's no one to take the frustration out on when the universe conspires to deprive you of one of the few things that brings you child-like joy.  Sucks. 

Your in an odd predicament living in KC due to family reasons and being a snow enthusiast.  I completely can see your frustration.  The gym is a great place to release your frustrations! 

[mlgamer]

3 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

This looks almost exactly like the last couple of days.  Will KC be too far NW again?  This February is looking like a repeat of a year ago with KC just missing the heavy stuff to the south. 

Wow...I Just created this same gif and was coming over here to post it and see you already did. Struck me the same...looks like the very same thing we just did. How strange.

[OmahaSnowFan]

43 minutes ago, Tom said:

I’ve stated over and over that the eastern sub would be benefiting more than the western parts.  I’ve also said that towards the later part of Feb there would be more opportunities out west.  
 

IMO, “something special” is when we are tracking systems and not staying underneath a Resilient Ridge or AN temp regime in Winter.  When you have cold temps and a snow pack that sticks around for days/weeks and doesn’t melt, that is real winter for me.  Feb is going to turn out to be one of the better months of Met winter in terms of cold and storms.  You’ll see.  Again, more so out here than the western Sub until possibly later in Feb.  You’ll prob be sitting on the sidelines it appears for a little while.

My reference was your post made in the middle of January calling the next 2-4 weeks something special. Now you’re saying through the end of February…. That’s not 4 weeks.

“Something special” normally means something memorable or different to most people. I didn’t realize you were simply talking about getting some snow and cold temps in the winter.

You also told the KC folks to expect at least 2 storms by the end of January. They got nothing.

I’m not sure how KC is central but Omaha is west either.

At any rate, keep forecasting and I’ll be here to keep asking where’s the snow since we can’t get any here.

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

[mlgamer]

8 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

I guess this time we hope the models one week out have the snow up in northern Minnesota and then watch the suppression push it down to us.

lol...we can only hope, but that's my complaint. 72 hours out or less the models never shift towards us, only away from us. Never fails. And if I sound paranoid it's because I am...

[Tom]

9 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

My reference was your post made in the middle of January calling the next 2-4 weeks something special. Now you’re saying through the end of February…. That’s not 4 weeks.

“Something special” normally means something memorable or different to most people. I didn’t realize you were simply talking about getting some snow and cold temps in the winter.

You also told the KC folks to expect at least 2 storms by the end of January. They got nothing.

I’m not sure how KC is central but Omaha is west either.

At any rate, keep forecasting and I’ll be here to keep asking where’s the snow since we can’t get any here.

 

I did predict 1 or 2 and was wrong but not really that far off.  GHD storm formed a day into Feb.  As I said before, the FEB 10th-15th is a period of action that would fit within the 2-4 week window back when my call was made in mid JAN.  Look, it’s not like most of the Sub is torching (except for your regions AN pattern) the past couple weeks.  The next 2 weeks will feature more interesting weather for most of us on here who like colder and snowier weather.

[GDR]

[mlgamer]

There's a TOP/KC winter in one image...lol

[OKwx2k4]

This is pretty dang sweet. Lets get some!

[Andie]

It’s no fun when you have family working out there as I do.  
My husband is Emergency Management and Fleet Ops.  
This puts him in the middle of it along with his dept.  
So not happy.  

[OKwx2k4]

11 minutes ago, Andie said:

It’s no fun when you have family working out there as I do.  
My husband is Emergency Management and Fleet Ops.  
This puts him in the middle of it along with his dept.  
So not happy.  

I'm praying for their protection and that they were able to process and prepare adequately. It's "Go time" now regardless.

[OKwx2k4]

4 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

I'll admit that I sometimes find myself needing to blame someone when it doesn't happen for me.  Forecasters are an easy target.  I wanted to tell Gary yesterday to jump in a lake.  There's no one to take the frustration out on when the universe conspires to deprive you of one of the few things that brings you child-like joy.  Sucks. 

I understand how you feel. I'm being blessed tonight for the first time in 6 years with what i love. I didn't even want to talk about the weather anymore this season, but here we are.

Hsng in there buddy. I get it. I get sad without snow. It reminds me of all the "good stuff".

[Andie]

1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I'm praying for their protection and that they were able to process and prepare adequately. It's "Go time" now regardless.

Thank you. 
They’re a dedicated bunch. They literally saved the city emergency services when all power went out. 
it ultimately fell to 3 men. My husband and 2 very skilled tanker drivers.  
They got commendations.  
I was just glad they were safe.  
 

We have a similar situation. 
We’re being alerted to power failures from .25”-.75” of ice build up on power lines.  
I’m all charged up with back up batteries, solar camping lights, and a way to cook and gas fireplace. .  Maybe we’ll dodge the bullet. 

[Tom]

The LR machine learning model that Dr. Cohen uses is not looking warm for the eastern CONUS.  Pretty much lining up with the same temp pattern that has been ongoing since JAN.  Cold is going to be locked.  Good read for those interested.

Quote

In addition to the behavior of the PV, I do think that persistence is becoming more important as we transition into February providing momentum to the dominating temperature and probably precipitation anomalies of recent weeks.  That would include cold and snowy weather east of the Rockies in North America and parts of East Asia including China and Japan, mild and/or snowless in the Western US, for much of Europe with some exceptions including Scandinavia and the Eastern Mediterranean and much of Asia but especially Northern Asia including Siberia.  The places that have been cold and snowy this month, eastern North America and parts of Central and East Asia are regions that our research has identified as relatively cold during and following stretched PV events.

The PV intrusions will be making a visit and I gotta funny feeling some of the coldest air of the season is heading our way for those who missed out on the earlier arctic outbreaks back in JAN when there was no snow OTG across the MW/Lower Lakes.

 

 

[Tom]

JMA weeklies for Week 2-4 are pretty much in agreement with the GEFS and GEFS extended....

Week 2....

Central CONUS trough/cold...looks rather moist...

 

Week 2-4...this is prob a clue that the western parts of our Sub turn colder/wintrier...

You can barely see there is a ribbon of BN anomalies right over the MW/Lower Lakes...a clue that the model is likely seeing a lot of snowfall. 

 

This model has been handling the MJO hands down the best over the past couple weeks.  Every model corrected towards the JMA and heading into Phase 3.  Bundle up.

 

[Tom]

@Stacsh @westMJim poised to get another round of snow from a neat little clipper Fri-Sat am...

[Grizzcoat]

This is pretty impressive - even for the dead of winter. One thing I don't get is no Wind Chill Advisory for DSM etc.-- though OMA has one -- and not even close in current wind chils- DSM near -20F -- OMA -15F and it's been constant 5F off all night. Maybe the OMA NWS has a different spectrum of Advisory wind chills deal?? Who knows- they have had a crappy winter and probably felt like issuing "something" - enough- But I do find it odd no Wind chill advisory for C.IA  (DSM) when it's much closer to the threshold of -20F for an advisory than OMA.  Maybe the climate is changing in OMA and not DSM??   :O) Just a rambling /..

[Grizzcoat]

To my point above- no WC advisory for DSM but for OMA?? It should be the other way around. Splitting brass tacks some might say?? While-- many schools and busniess base their deals (limited) on what the NWS says. It still feels the same- but for many that just go on graphics alone- a disservice done -- unless OMX and DMX have different levels of wind chill advisory criteria which I doubt HIGHLY. --- but maybe I'am bored and need to find another hobby :O)

[Grizzcoat]

And just to be clear-- I understand forecasters make errors-- like we all do in life. But why not do an updated WC advisory for the morning communte in the DMX area?>  Until 9AM or so??  Conditions have been meant since the updated AM  AFD-- but I guess- since I failed DIFF CALC- my thoughts dont matter.

[Grizzcoat]

Pushing -40 at the "ICE BOX" of the lower 48- KINL's record is -40 in 1982 for this date.

[Grizzcoat]

temp at mby has dropped to -6F-- wind chill -25F. This after the NWS "updated" the grids to a low of -1F at 3am. "and we look at models for snow at 72 hours ( even closer)  like "certain"--- not happening. Mother nature dictates. Computer models - not try and die.

[westMJim]

What a sharp cut off of yesterdays snow fall. The official reading at GRR was 5.1" I live about 15 miles NW of the airport and I recorded just 3.1" I am about 22 miles SE of the Muskegon airport and they only reported 0.4" of snow fall. This morning there is now 5" of snow on the ground here at my house and I now have a temperature of 17 with cloudy skies.

[Andie]

Well, 21* at 7am. Not as bad as first feared. 
2” of ice and sleet. A little snow. We have another hr of sleet/snow and it will pass. 

It’s a first responder kinda day. No one else on the road this morning.  
Only 22,000 without power statewide. Better than expected.  Ercot knew it better not fail.

[CentralNebWeather]

Local meteorologist says the dry pattern to continue for several more weeks.  He is even shaking his head and frustrated as he knows the significant agricultural importance around here.  This isn't just me wanting some of the white stuff.  Farmers that I talk to, one is my assistant 7th grade basketball coach, are really concerned that if this pattern doesn't flip, they will have significant expenses on trying to get a crop to come up.  (possibly having to turn on center pivot irrigation)

[Madtown]

-23 this am...please send snow