February 2022 Observations and Discussions

[OmahaSnowFan]

Your weekly Omaha weather forecast. You might have seen this before...

Normal low/high in Omaha is 17/36.

Today

Cloudy early, then gradual clearing, with a high near 55. South wind 6 to 13 mph becoming west northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph.

Tonight

Mostly clear, with a low around 30. Southwest wind 5 to 7 mph.

Tuesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 58. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 7 to 12 mph becoming northwest 16 to 21 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 29 mph.

Tuesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 30. West northwest wind 7 to 13 mph.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 48. Breezy, with a northwest wind 9 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 21.

Thursday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 49.

Thursday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37.

Friday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 52. Breezy.

Friday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 15.

Saturday

Sunny, with a high near 37.

Saturday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 18.

Sunday

Sunny, with a high near 49.

[Anti Marine Layer]

8 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Your weekly Omaha weather forecast. You might have seen this before...

Normal low/high in Omaha is 17/36.

Today

Cloudy early, then gradual clearing, with a high near 55. South wind 6 to 13 mph becoming west northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph.

Tonight

Mostly clear, with a low around 30. Southwest wind 5 to 7 mph.

Tuesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 58. Breezy, with a west southwest wind 7 to 12 mph becoming northwest 16 to 21 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 29 mph.

Tuesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 30. West northwest wind 7 to 13 mph.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 48. Breezy, with a northwest wind 9 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.

Wednesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 21.

Thursday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 49.

Thursday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37.

Friday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 52. Breezy.

Friday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 15.

Saturday

Sunny, with a high near 37.

Saturday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 18.

Sunday

Sunny, with a high near 49.

[MIKEKC]

Let's put the LRC to test. 

Based off a 61-66 day cycle, we can expect the storm parade to start around Feb. 15th to 20th. and continue through March 10th-15th.  Now, snow or rain here in KC? All depends on the teleconnections. The 0Z and 06Z GFS reloaded the pattern with cold right around the storm parade. WE SHALL SEE! 

Anyhow, cycle one was very wet here in KC and we took direct hits from each storm through the first 30 days of the new LRC. 

First hit was October6th, where KCI recorded .15 inches of rain but at my house east of the reporting station I received .57 inches of rain. 

Oct 10th through the 11th, big storm in the Plains, 2-3 inches here in KC.

Oct. 12th 13th, Large ULL tracks NW of KC, snowstorm in the western Dakotas, KC was dry on this storm. 

Oct. 14th-15th, cold front with thunderstorms, .50-1inch in KC.

Oct. 22nd 24th, Big 3 day storm system, heavy rain in the Plains. Severe weather broke out in the Plains on the 24th with tornadoes in MO.....SE of KC. 

Oct. 27th-30th, large storm system in the Plains, 2-3 inches here in KC. 

Nov. 1st, small disturbance in NW flow hit KC and the first snowflake of the season fell that day. The disturbance actually maxed out here and we received much more than forecasted as far as total moisture goes. 

Nov. 9th-10th, another 1-2 inches of rain fell here in KC.

The above was the first 30-35 days of cycle one. This part of the pattern is due to to cycle around Feb. 15th-20th 

So, the first storm per the LRC should cycle around Feb. 15th to 20th, following that, should see plenty of action all the way up to march 10th-15th. Should we see the pattern block up, we could possibly see one hell of a stretch of winter storms post Feb.15th. 

Let's see how it all plays out.

 

 

 

[Tom]

Been getting mood flakes all morning long…23F with overcast skies…snow pack took a little hit yesterday and I’m prob down to 3” snow depth.  Clipper train looks to track north of here as it stands now.  Would love to score a couple inches but we’ll see.

[OmahaSnowFan]

[OmahaSnowFan]

Still blows my mind…

[BrianJK]

31 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Almost seems to contradict some of the messaging on here during that same time frame  

[Tom]

3 minutes ago, BrianJK said:

Almost seems to contradict some of the messaging on here during that same time frame  

Nope, if you consider a 61-66 day cycle (63 days being the mean)...the Feb 15th-18th storm is showing up on the operational model runs and ensembles quite well.  Today's 12z GFS/GGEM both show it...obviously at this range your going to have a wide variety of dates/solutions/etc.

[Tom]

Hats off to the JMA who has not backed off a Phase 2/3 forecast for over a week now.  All the models except for the Australian had no clue.  With that in mind, the JMA doesn't sway away from these phases while the rest of the models try to exit the "colder" phases by end of Week 2.

 

[Clinton]

13 minutes ago, Tom said:

Nope, if you consider a 61-66 day cycle (63 days being the mean)...the Feb 15th-18th storm is showing up on the operational model runs and ensembles quite well.  Today's 12z GFS/GGEM both show it...obviously at this range your going to have a wide variety of dates/solutions/etc.

The same system produced a nasty tornado outbreak from Ark to Ky.  I would expect something similar this time in the region a little further SE based on the amount of cold air the GFS is showing from time to time.

[Jayhawker85]

11 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The same system produced a nasty tornado outbreak from Ark to Ky.  I would expect something similar this time in the region a little further SE based on the amount of cold air the GFS is showing from time to time.

from Gary blog this morning:

The LRC look into the rest of this month: A stormy stretch with a chance of a winter storm or two will increase between Feb. 15 and 20, with a series of storm systems likely in the second half of this month. This is one of the signature parts of the pattern that has produced strong storm systems in the previous two cycles. The Mayfield, Kentucky tornado disaster happened in the December version of this year's cycling pattern. That part of the pattern will cycle back through in around 10 days. In the February and March versions of the LRC, there is often cold air still available and these later storm systems will likely have a strong winter and possibly the spring severe weather effects on the pattern. I am expecting a major winter storm with tornado potential in the warmer air farther south and east.

[james1976]

GFS trying to still go bigly from 18th-19th and beyond. Time will tell. Until then my grids are mainly 30s/40s and dry. Snowpack will likely be gone or close to it.

[OmahaSnowFan]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Nope, if you consider a 61-66 day cycle (63 days being the mean)...the Feb 15th-18th storm is showing up on the operational model runs and ensembles quite well.  Today's 12z GFS/GGEM both show it...obviously at this range your going to have a wide variety of dates/solutions/etc.

Given he was referring to the seasonal snowfall map I posted and the multiple calls on this forum for Fall to start in August and Winter to start in late Sept/October, the fact that so much of this forum is still BELOW NORMAL in snowfall nearing the middle of February is a YUGE bust for those seasonal predictions, regardless if we get a nice storm or two yet this season. Pretty sure if you'd poll people in this forum, they'd prefer to have a nice long winter, not just a backloaded few weeks.

[Tom]

3 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Given he was referring to the seasonal snowfall map I posted and the multiple calls on this forum for Fall to start in August and Winter to start in late Sept/October, the fact that so much of this forum is still BELOW NORMAL in snowfall nearing the middle of February is a YUGE bust for those seasonal predictions, regardless if we get a nice storm or two yet this season. Pretty sure if you'd poll people in this forum, they'd prefer to have a nice long winter, not just a backloaded few weeks.

Your crazy man, who was saying this?  I sure as hell wasn’t predicting any of this that early.  At that time, I usually only pay attn to “what” the new LRC could start looking like.  To be fair, we did get hints of fall in late Aug around here and esp in Sept.  Winter didn’t tease any of the Sub outside of the Upper MW and MI peeps in Nov.  Of course, you didn’t see any winter at all, albeit a clipper or a minimal snowfall.

[inferno]

LRC.... Of virtually no use to anyone.....

[Beltrami Island]

7 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

You mean these temps?? ( below)  Or the warmer temps for around the  14th??   Long range Guidance is going to do nothing until it figures out the MJO.  Trust me. This Thursday for example was supposed to be in the 50's per the EURO over a week out for DSM-- now maybe 30F at Noon . GFS nailed it. Why? MJO phase. Someone mentioned earlier with actual science that GFS is out doing the Euro in the long range. I would agree.

I am glad its not just me noticing this.  The GFS has always been bonkers past day 7, but even past day 4-5 the Euro seems to be worthless this winter.  

[MIKEKC]

4 minutes ago, inferno said:

LRC.... Of virtually no use to anyone.....

Well, I lined out what the LRC has lined up starting around mid-month. Even showed what happened in cycle one. I encourage you to dig deep into this theory, you will be quite surprised on how storms actually do cycle. 

The LRC is flawless IMO, the problem, is the forecaster using the LRC. It can be quite challenging. Seasonal changes, teleconnections, etc. 

The signature storm in this year's LRC was the OCT. 10th/11th storm.(there are other signature storms also) Here in KC we received 2-3 inches of rain over a 48 hour period, then the final piece came out (2) days later giving us more moisture. We had a positive AO at the time and it was a very warm pattern. This same storm cycled Dec. 8th-14th, huge storm across the Plains/Tennesse Valley...remember, the tornado outbreak? Positive AO  in cycle (2)...very warm storm for most. Here in KC, we had a few showers as we were in the wrong spot in cycle 2, but, the massive storm was still there. Now, that same storm is due to return in cycle (3), likely somewhere around Feb.15th to Feb. 20th. 

There are many other ways to forecast future weather events, I feel this might be the best tool. Seriously, look into it. You really have to understand the variables before you buy into the cycling pattern. Its there, it's quite amazing at times. Like anything, there are flaws but I don't think they are LRC flaws, I think it's the human interaction that is the flaw. Its really hard to use this forecasting tool to a "T" 

As it stands now, the LRC has a large impacting system to show up between Feb. 15th and 20th in the country's midsection.(per his forecast he issued to my company, KC will see a storm Feb. 15th to the 20th. They issued this forecast back in late Dec.) What will the AO/NAO/MJO be?? This will determine if this is a big winter storm for many or a big storm with more rain than snow.  But, there will be a storm there and it was predicted 6 weeks in advance. What other forecasting tool can do that? 

 

I'm friends with the founder of the LRC. (GARY LEZAK) Text each other on storms, talk by phone and have drinks together from time to time. We have been in verbal fights over this LRC, I've known him for 15 years.  Believe me, (Clinton and Tom can likely back me up on this) I called BS on this theory for years, even as late as  last year. I did some research, spent some time looking over it, its there!!! Now, again, it certainly has its problems, and we are learning more each and every day. 

If you have time, go look at his hurricane forecast from last spring.....some big hits on there! Forecast was about 70 percent right. I believe the LRC predicted 8 out of the 12 major storms and landed them right on the dates they occurred.  

Right now, we have a forecast out there using the LRC. That forecast is an uptick in winter storms starting just a bit after mid month. It should be quite active through the middle of March. Severe weather, ice, and snow will likely be some headlines you will see quite often. Until then, a quiet pattern with up and down temps. 

The storm we saw last week, MASSIVE, I think we will see that 2-3 more times prior to March 15th. We need the pattern to block up for them to be more wintry than wet.

Here in KC, we are at around 8 inches for the winter season, average is 18.9 or so, if the pattern blocks up, KC will finish with above average snowfall with the stormy part of cycle 3 coming soon. 

Stay tuned!  

 

[snowstorm83]

Going to be tacking on several 50+ days this week. The "colder days" are getting fewer and farther between. That's fine with me, we've had our fair share of zero air temps with a bare ground. Those mornings get old very quickly. 

[inferno]

flawless is the new useless i guess

[MIKEKC]

CMC/EURO (Feb 16thish) and the GFS a few days later have the cycling storm showing up right on time per the LRC cycle 3. 

 

It will be a big storm, cover a lot of states with severe weather, heavy rains and a snowy side. BIG WINTERSTORM in 10 days!!!

Which side are you going to be on??? Teleconnections, how are you going to act? I need and arctic high to show its face to keep this storm to track south of my area, if not, I could be on the rainy side. 

[CentralNebWeather]

11 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Going to be tacking on several 50+ days this week. The "colder days" are getting fewer and farther between. That's fine with me, we've had our fair share of zero air temps with a bare ground. Those mornings get old very quickly. 

We've had some really cold days this winter that if we had a snowpack, would have been brutal.  

[Hawkeye]

The last month of weather in one image.

Southeastern Nebraska has experienced many 50s over the last month.  Meanwhile, here in east-central Iowa, the snow from the December 28th storm is still on the ground.

[Clinton]

The Euro ensembles seem to be sniffing it out.

 

[MIKEKC]

12 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The Euro ensembles seem to be sniffing it out.

 

Clinton, right on schedule. Who will score with this one?? 9-10 days to figure that out. 

[Clinton]

14 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

Clinton, right on schedule. Who will score with this one?? 9-10 days to figure that out. 

We have to get the AO and NAO down or it won't be us.

[Timmy Supercell]

Quick glance at the 10-day shows perhaps the bulk of winter might be over, but of course one or two more snows can happen into early March. 

[Minny_Weather]

Name changed! Maybe I'll get to work on the signature at some point.

[Andie]

Anyone wondering if it got cold in Texas this last go round of ice and snow need only take a look here.  
That is one cold longhorn.  
 

[gimmesnow]

2 hours ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Quick glance at the 10-day shows perhaps the bulk of winter might be over, but of course one or two more snows can happen into early March. 

forecasts are kind of useless, I think. someone correct me if I'm wrong but they're just looking at the same models and making the information easier for the average person to understand. So if the models are going haywire, and don't know what's going to happen, then the forecasts are based off of that and they're probably not very accurate. Isn't that how it works?

I mean GFS long range is even more messed up than normal. It went from giving me rain on the 19th to the 20th to giving me nothing and having the rain/snow line go through northern Kentucky.

Others far more knowledgable than me said it could be due to the MJO https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-mjo-and-why-do-we-care

I suggest reading about it. But models are going crazy, I think every run is changing a lot. Even 7 days out is changing. GFS says Thursday is going to be really cold here, forecast says 32.

[Thunder98]

It was 62F at Rapid City AP today!

[OmahaSnowFan]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

Your crazy man, who was saying this?  I sure as hell wasn’t predicting any of this that early.  At that time, I usually only pay attn to “what” the new LRC could start looking like.  To be fair, we did get hints of fall in late Aug around here and esp in Sept.  Winter didn’t tease any of the Sub outside of the Upper MW and MI peeps in Nov.  Of course, you didn’t see any winter at all, albeit a clipper or a minimal snowfall.

You want the receipts?

7/13/21- OKWX

The PAC temp profile sitting as it is, is the textbook for how to load a massive shift down the road. All the players on that side locked in, now it's the Atlantic's turn. Stage and setup the blocking over the NE and presto. Should also see the gulf sst profile spike in the coming weeks. 

This is truly one of the most beautiful hemispheric climate patterns I've seen in my life in terms of loving autumn and winter.

Too much good here. Hard to hold my composure but I'd get ready for winter. Summers over for the eastern and Southern parts of the sub and will be for the northern part in 3 weeks.

• Tom and Andie
•  2

 

 

8/15/21- Tom

Care for another sneak preview into late Autumn and early Winter???  This signal has been showing up for several runs in a row and to see the multi-model mean showing this agreement provides considerable clues for the upcoming cold season.  Early Strat warming???  Greenland Block in December?  

 

8/16/21- Tom

The JMA seasonal came in the other day and I'll put together a post later today when I have more time....let me tell you, the 2021-2022 LRC is undoubtedly going to feature an impressive Greenland Block and -EPO.  The model is also suggesting a fired up W PAC Typhoon season.  My goodness, this Autumn could really get nasty...that's all for now.

 

8/18/21- Tom

Temp...similar signal as the month of Sept but I do NOT believe it is cold enough...this will prob trend colder during next months run.

Finally, the month of November just gave me the chills...a continuation of rising motion over the W PAC, W NAMER Ridge (-EPO), slightly -NAO all support a strong signal Winter will come on early for the eastern CONUS.

8/19/21- Tom

 

and finally, by Nov 1st....while this is just 1 run, it does certainly follow a trend I've been seeing the model suggest that the Northern Hemisphere is likely to come out of the gates quite Fast and Furious right into Winter.  Just like the S.H. has experienced, it will be "our" turn for the N. H.  I dunno about you, but I'm already starting to feel like this may be one of those seasons our continent is heading for a deep cold winter.  I'm not in any way suggesting our Sub is going to directly be in the heart of it all, however, but I am suggesting North America is going to get the brunt of the cold and the good ol' Polar Vortex will be spinning up north in Canada and making multiple visits.  This, I will say with confidence, we will experience over the eastern CONUS.  The real question is, how severe could this Winter get???

8/21/21-Tom

With my mind pondering about Autumn and thinking about the LR pattern, could there be an abrupt shift towards Autumn brewing???  Over the past week, I've seen the models flipping back and forth but just recently I've noticed the CFSv2 and Euro Weeklies agreeing on the pattern towards Labor Day weekend.  In fact, they are both more or less in agreement for the entire month of Sept which indicates to me the models may be locking on to some data.  What is it they are seeing???

 the LRC is predicting a cool/cold mid and late Sept...I think it may be a bit to slow with this cooler pattern but I could be wrong.  Using the LRC at this time of year is tricky because I feel that the old pattern fades as the year progresses and the "new" pattern is about to set up across the Arctic north which can set up blocking patterns that the old pattern did not have before.  For instance, the Greenland Block (-NAO) and -EPO/-WPO are ALL progged to take over the driving forces during the entire month based on the model data that is showing up.  Last year's pattern, iirc, we did NOT have a -WPO and the pattern setting up across the PAC "pond" in the W PAC will have an impact to our N.A wx pattern.

9/6/21- OKWX

 

I don't forsee this being a "build gently into winter" type year. I think its going to be a crash and blitz to the end. That's my opinion. I think we should enjoy the peace of September so far. 

I think this one will put the "fall" back in Autumn.

9/15/21- Tom

Like I've said before, I got a great feeling that due to what has transpired here in the SW during this years Monsoon season, I strongly believe Nature will be delivering many storms out this way in the Fall/Winter.  These maps are mirroring what I think will transpire.  Overall, there will be some warmer periods in Oct/Nov but the general them is for a very active storm track and then possibly a big flip into Winter sometime in Nov or early Dec.  I'm really getting excited and antsy to start seeing storms track into the west, esp if the high lat blocking takes over and also the big ticket item...what happens in the Strat?  Early disruption like the models have been suggesting over the past couple months? 

[Tom]

9 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

You want the receipts?

7/13/21- OKWX

The PAC temp profile sitting as it is, is the textbook for how to load a massive shift down the road. All the players on that side locked in, now it's the Atlantic's turn. Stage and setup the blocking over the NE and presto. Should also see the gulf sst profile spike in the coming weeks. 

This is truly one of the most beautiful hemispheric climate patterns I've seen in my life in terms of loving autumn and winter.

Too much good here. Hard to hold my composure but I'd get ready for winter. Summers over for the eastern and Southern parts of the sub and will be for the northern part in 3 weeks.

• Tom and Andie
•  2

 

 

8/15/21- Tom

Care for another sneak preview into late Autumn and early Winter???  This signal has been showing up for several runs in a row and to see the multi-model mean showing this agreement provides considerable clues for the upcoming cold season.  Early Strat warming???  Greenland Block in December?  

 

8/16/21- Tom

The JMA seasonal came in the other day and I'll put together a post later today when I have more time....let me tell you, the 2021-2022 LRC is undoubtedly going to feature an impressive Greenland Block and -EPO.  The model is also suggesting a fired up W PAC Typhoon season.  My goodness, this Autumn could really get nasty...that's all for now.

 

8/18/21- Tom

Temp...similar signal as the month of Sept but I do NOT believe it is cold enough...this will prob trend colder during next months run.

Finally, the month of November just gave me the chills...a continuation of rising motion over the W PAC, W NAMER Ridge (-EPO), slightly -NAO all support a strong signal Winter will come on early for the eastern CONUS.

8/19/21- Tom

 

and finally, by Nov 1st....while this is just 1 run, it does certainly follow a trend I've been seeing the model suggest that the Northern Hemisphere is likely to come out of the gates quite Fast and Furious right into Winter.  Just like the S.H. has experienced, it will be "our" turn for the N. H.  I dunno about you, but I'm already starting to feel like this may be one of those seasons our continent is heading for a deep cold winter.  I'm not in any way suggesting our Sub is going to directly be in the heart of it all, however, but I am suggesting North America is going to get the brunt of the cold and the good ol' Polar Vortex will be spinning up north in Canada and making multiple visits.  This, I will say with confidence, we will experience over the eastern CONUS.  The real question is, how severe could this Winter get???

8/21/21-Tom

With my mind pondering about Autumn and thinking about the LR pattern, could there be an abrupt shift towards Autumn brewing???  Over the past week, I've seen the models flipping back and forth but just recently I've noticed the CFSv2 and Euro Weeklies agreeing on the pattern towards Labor Day weekend.  In fact, they are both more or less in agreement for the entire month of Sept which indicates to me the models may be locking on to some data.  What is it they are seeing???

 the LRC is predicting a cool/cold mid and late Sept...I think it may be a bit to slow with this cooler pattern but I could be wrong.  Using the LRC at this time of year is tricky because I feel that the old pattern fades as the year progresses and the "new" pattern is about to set up across the Arctic north which can set up blocking patterns that the old pattern did not have before.  For instance, the Greenland Block (-NAO) and -EPO/-WPO are ALL progged to take over the driving forces during the entire month based on the model data that is showing up.  Last year's pattern, iirc, we did NOT have a -WPO and the pattern setting up across the PAC "pond" in the W PAC will have an impact to our N.A wx pattern.

9/6/21- OKWX

 

I don't forsee this being a "build gently into winter" type year. I think its going to be a crash and blitz to the end. That's my opinion. I think we should enjoy the peace of September so far. 

I think this one will put the "fall" back in Autumn.

9/15/21- Tom

Like I've said before, I got a great feeling that due to what has transpired here in the SW during this years Monsoon season, I strongly believe Nature will be delivering many storms out this way in the Fall/Winter.  These maps are mirroring what I think will transpire.  Overall, there will be some warmer periods in Oct/Nov but the general them is for a very active storm track and then possibly a big flip into Winter sometime in Nov or early Dec.  I'm really getting excited and antsy to start seeing storms track into the west, esp if the high lat blocking takes over and also the big ticket item...what happens in the Strat?  Early disruption like the models have been suggesting over the past couple months? 

Keeping notes?  My goodness…these are just remarks on what the models are showing.  What’s wrong with that?

[Tom]

Nowhere was I personally predicting or making any predictions of a so-called “epic” “historic” winter as you’ve stated over and over again.  I think you got a problem of bashing people on here…just ignore the posts from now on.  I don’t think that most of the other members on here care to see the negativity.  

[OmahaSnowFan]

Almost another 1% February day with nearly a 40 degree rise in temps.

Low this morning was 23.5. High this afternoon was 59.2!!

Normals are 17/36.

Nearly clear skies and pretty light winds as well. Gonna make another run at 60 degrees tomorrow too.

[OmahaSnowFan]

6 minutes ago, Tom said:

Nowhere was I personally predicting or making any predictions of a so-called “epic” “historic” winter as you’ve stated over and over again.  I think you got a problem of bashing people on here…just ignore the posts from now on.  I don’t think that most of the other members on here care to see the negativity.  

I'm sorry, I have a bad habit of calling out the BS. Especially when you have no problem reminding everyone of what you predicted before when you're right.

[OmahaSnowFan]

14 minutes ago, Tom said:

Keeping notes?  My goodness…these are just remarks on what the models are showing.  What’s wrong with that?

No notes. Just a good memory. And all those posts are easily found at the beginning of the Autumn/Winter thread for this winter.

[Minny_Weather]

I am Spartacus.

[Stacsh]

1 hour ago, gimmesnow said:

forecasts are kind of useless, I think. someone correct me if I'm wrong but they're just looking at the same models and making the information easier for the average person to understand. So if the models are going haywire, and don't know what's going to happen, then the forecasts are based off of that and they're probably not very accurate. Isn't that how it works?

I mean GFS long range is even more messed up than normal. It went from giving me rain on the 19th to the 20th to giving me nothing and having the rain/snow line go through northern Kentucky.

Others far more knowledgable than me said it could be due to the MJO https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-mjo-and-why-do-we-care

I suggest reading about it. But models are going crazy, I think every run is changing a lot. Even 7 days out is changing. GFS says Thursday is going to be really cold here, forecast says 32.

Coming out of winter.  That will do it to the models.  A few more weeks and we will be talking warmth and storms.   2 weeks of winter left.  Then up and down til may.  Hallelujah.  

[OKwx2k4]

The sudden passing of longtime Oklahoma and Arkansas meteorologist Clint Boone is a devastating shock to the meteorologists here. His friend, meteorologist Mike Collier and many others in the state media could use prayers as they were dear friends. Heartbreaking. Sounds like he was a great man.

[BrianJK]

3 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

You want the receipts?

7/13/21- OKWX

The PAC temp profile sitting as it is, is the textbook for how to load a massive shift down the road. All the players on that side locked in, now it's the Atlantic's turn. Stage and setup the blocking over the NE and presto. Should also see the gulf sst profile spike in the coming weeks. 

This is truly one of the most beautiful hemispheric climate patterns I've seen in my life in terms of loving autumn and winter.

Too much good here. Hard to hold my composure but I'd get ready for winter. Summers over for the eastern and Southern parts of the sub and will be for the northern part in 3 weeks.

• Tom and Andie
•  2

 

 

8/15/21- Tom

Care for another sneak preview into late Autumn and early Winter???  This signal has been showing up for several runs in a row and to see the multi-model mean showing this agreement provides considerable clues for the upcoming cold season.  Early Strat warming???  Greenland Block in December?  

 

8/16/21- Tom

The JMA seasonal came in the other day and I'll put together a post later today when I have more time....let me tell you, the 2021-2022 LRC is undoubtedly going to feature an impressive Greenland Block and -EPO.  The model is also suggesting a fired up W PAC Typhoon season.  My goodness, this Autumn could really get nasty...that's all for now.

 

8/18/21- Tom

Temp...similar signal as the month of Sept but I do NOT believe it is cold enough...this will prob trend colder during next months run.

Finally, the month of November just gave me the chills...a continuation of rising motion over the W PAC, W NAMER Ridge (-EPO), slightly -NAO all support a strong signal Winter will come on early for the eastern CONUS.

8/19/21- Tom

 

and finally, by Nov 1st....while this is just 1 run, it does certainly follow a trend I've been seeing the model suggest that the Northern Hemisphere is likely to come out of the gates quite Fast and Furious right into Winter.  Just like the S.H. has experienced, it will be "our" turn for the N. H.  I dunno about you, but I'm already starting to feel like this may be one of those seasons our continent is heading for a deep cold winter.  I'm not in any way suggesting our Sub is going to directly be in the heart of it all, however, but I am suggesting North America is going to get the brunt of the cold and the good ol' Polar Vortex will be spinning up north in Canada and making multiple visits.  This, I will say with confidence, we will experience over the eastern CONUS.  The real question is, how severe could this Winter get???

8/21/21-Tom

With my mind pondering about Autumn and thinking about the LR pattern, could there be an abrupt shift towards Autumn brewing???  Over the past week, I've seen the models flipping back and forth but just recently I've noticed the CFSv2 and Euro Weeklies agreeing on the pattern towards Labor Day weekend.  In fact, they are both more or less in agreement for the entire month of Sept which indicates to me the models may be locking on to some data.  What is it they are seeing???

 the LRC is predicting a cool/cold mid and late Sept...I think it may be a bit to slow with this cooler pattern but I could be wrong.  Using the LRC at this time of year is tricky because I feel that the old pattern fades as the year progresses and the "new" pattern is about to set up across the Arctic north which can set up blocking patterns that the old pattern did not have before.  For instance, the Greenland Block (-NAO) and -EPO/-WPO are ALL progged to take over the driving forces during the entire month based on the model data that is showing up.  Last year's pattern, iirc, we did NOT have a -WPO and the pattern setting up across the PAC "pond" in the W PAC will have an impact to our N.A wx pattern.

9/6/21- OKWX

 

I don't forsee this being a "build gently into winter" type year. I think its going to be a crash and blitz to the end. That's my opinion. I think we should enjoy the peace of September so far. 

I think this one will put the "fall" back in Autumn.

9/15/21- Tom

Like I've said before, I got a great feeling that due to what has transpired here in the SW during this years Monsoon season, I strongly believe Nature will be delivering many storms out this way in the Fall/Winter.  These maps are mirroring what I think will transpire.  Overall, there will be some warmer periods in Oct/Nov but the general them is for a very active storm track and then possibly a big flip into Winter sometime in Nov or early Dec.  I'm really getting excited and antsy to start seeing storms track into the west, esp if the high lat blocking takes over and also the big ticket item...what happens in the Strat?  Early disruption like the models have been suggesting over the past couple months? 

 

2 hours ago, Tom said:

Keeping notes?  My goodness…these are just remarks on what the models are showing.  What’s wrong with that?

 

Yikes, can’t really dispute any of that.   And it seems this has been a repetitive narrative over the last 3-5+ years.  To the contrary, many places experienced record warmth and/or have come close or actually did indeed break snow futility / latest measurable snow / etc records.