February 2022 Observations and Discussions

[Andie]

1 hour ago, MSP_Weather said:

Being in a pileup like that is a huge fear of mine. I can't even begin to imagine the feeling of helplessness as a bunch of uncontrollable cars are speeding towards you after you just crashed yourself.

I don’t want to freak you out but there’s news video of it and traffic cam video that just leaves me weak on YouTube. 
You’re right to be concerned. This thing left the entire State speechless and unnerved for some time.  
 

133 vehicles were involved.  Emergency responders were given counseling on this one.  My husbands team was among the responders.  He won’t talk about it to this day.  

[Tom]

Yesterday was a bi-polar day of wx that started off with strong southerly winds and snow falling that accumulated about 1/2 of snow, then it melted throughout the day and most of our snow pack, then the arctic front came through midday and temps dropped quickly amidst strong W/NW winds, then it started to snow again and a fresh coating fell overnight.  ORD officially picked up 0.5" (6.6" this month) of snow.  The day before ORD recorded a Trace of snow.  The days of measurable snowfall are adding up but that doesn't pain the picture of a real wintry "feel".  These warm ups are a killer to that effect.

[Tom]

Hmmmm, I'm starting to ponder on the idea if the modeling hinting at the idea of Spring to be a "head fake" or not later this month.  Tonight's 0z EPS is starting to show some real interesting members for the next big storm on the calendar between the 23rd-25th.  At this range all I'm seeing is a very wet and potentially wintry set up that may turn into a prolonged event.  Given the teleconnections at this time period I'd suspect to see a set a pattern where the SER is present and a frontal boundary draped across the central SUB.  What has perked my interest are the trends off the EPS that show a large portion of the central SUB with more members showing the snow potential.  The pattern will shift towards a more traditional SW Flow aloft for the remainder of the month post 23rd and line up with the idea of a wetter...(snowier ?????)....pattern for the central plains members.

 

Let's take a look at the East Asian Theory and how this may be a better tool right now to predict where this next system may track.  There is a potent trough that is forecast to slowly track through central Japan (perfect track for the central Sub)....strong blocking to the north which suggests a Canadian HP should be present...but how strong will it be is the question???  

 

The EPS has been slowly backing off the +EPO in the extended (bias noticeable)...

 

SER pattern is almost a certainty....this would add more validity to the LRC's active pattern during its wetter cycle.

 

 

 

So, as we track our storm system for mid next week, there appears to be a lot of model contradiction in the extended.  None more so than the battle with the MJO signal during the Week 2 period and beyond.  The JMA is now suggesting a stalling in Phase 3...I'm waiting for the new run of the CFSv2 to come in and if it shows any signs of the Phase 3 idea, then I believe we still have a lot of Winter left on the table.  Who does that include is up in the air ATM but rest assure, it'll get more active across the board.  I always felt that it was going to be the eastern SUB to benefit during the 1st half of the month, then eventually the western Sub would start to cash in.  Let's see how this evolves.

 

 

Just saying, but the CFSv2 is showing some wild individual op runs for MAR...Phase 3 temp anomalies for MAR below...if the JMA wins again in the LR then buckle up bc MAR can produce some wild weather in an environment where the clash of Winter & Spring could dial up some Blizzards.  Gosh, could we just track a couple true Wound up Big Dogs before winters over???

 

[bud2380]

The clipper coming through tonight has a chance to surprise. DVN mentioning the possibility of anomalous SLR of 30:1 as a possibility in a small band. 

[westMJim]

With the snow that fell yesterday Grand Rapids is now at 11.2" for February and for the season GRR is now at 56.8" that is still -1.5" for where GR should be by this time of the winter season. Muskegon is now at 40.9" and that is still a whopping -25.8" below where they should be for this date. At Lansing they are now at 39.3" for the season but they are now at +4.4" for the season. There was just0.2" of new snow here overnight but with the snow melt and the slush from yesterday there is a lot of ice on the road and driveway. The overnight low here was 18 and that is the current temperature.

[Andie]

Mother Nature is a tease.  
42*. Drizzle.  (How dare they call it rain)

Feels colder.  Rain in forecast for Wed/Thurs.  We’ll see how that shakes out.  
The drought is winding up for the pitch.  

[gimmesnow]

8 hours ago, Tom said:

Just saying, but the CFSv2 is showing some wild individual op runs for MAR...Phase 3 temp anomalies for MAR below...if the JMA wins again in the LR then buckle up bc MAR can produce some wild weather in an environment where the clash of Winter & Spring could dial up some Blizzards.  Gosh, could we just track a couple true Wound up Big Dogs before winters over???

I really hope so, I'm so demoralized by this winter I'm starting to feel like we're not even going to get our pitty snowstorm here in SE Wisconsin that pads the stats

[CentralNebWeather]

Have used the snow blower once this season on December 10th for 2.5” snow, largest one we’ve had. Still sitting at 6.5” for the season, unbelievable. Will I use it one more time?  Might as well go for futility records at this point and look to get the mower ready. 

[snowstorm83]

CentralNeb posted some pics yesterday, but yeah it was a different world last Feb. This time last year Lincoln was in the midst of a 10 day stretch where the highest temp was 13, nine of those days were in the single digits or lower. Snow wasn't crazy deep, but at least around a foot coupled with those temps turned Lincoln into northern Minnesota for some time. Of course my friends/roommates/coworkers all think I'm crazy for reminiscing about this time  

These pics are from the afternoon of Feb 15th, temps were about -6 at the time (Also snapchat pics look way worse after pasting them somewhere else, I need to stop using it but I always lose stuff in my iCloud lol)

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

5 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

CentralNeb posted some pics yesterday, but yeah it was a different world last Feb. This time last year Lincoln was in the midst of a 10 day stretch where the highest temp was 13, nine of those days were in the single digits or lower. Snow wasn't crazy deep, but at least around a foot coupled with those temps turned Lincoln into northern Minnesota for some time. Of course my friends/roommates/coworkers all think I'm crazy for reminiscing about this time  

These pics are from the afternoon of Feb 15th, temps were about -6 at the time (Also snapchat pics look way worse after pasting them somewhere else, I need to stop using it but I always lose stuff in my iCloud lol)

 

 

Nice pictures. What a difference. 

[Bellona]

Oh no GFS, you aren't gonna rick roll me again.

Edited February 12, 2022 by Bellona
Misspelled

[OmahaSnowFan]

Yes please.

[Niko]

Looks like a couple of inches tomorrow in S MI from LES moving on through the area by midday. Should be a very powdery type snow w temps in the teens.

[Tom]

The corrections in the EPS continue across NW NAMER and the North Pole...the models are beginning to advertise more ridging/blocking in the high lats for Week 2....I can already see the "head fake" of False Spring and face palms...I still stand on the idea of winter returning for the central Plains towards the final stretch of FEB.

[westMJim]

At this time very light snow is falling here. 0.1" of new snow fell overnight there is still 5.0" of snow on the ground here at my house and officially at GRR there is also 5" on the ground. There now has been 49 days in a row of 1" or more of snow on the ground at GRR. At this time with that very light snow falling it is 13 here.

[Madtown]

-24 this am.

[Niko]

Sweet!

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
321 AM EST Sun Feb 13 2022

MIZ068>070-075-076-131630-
/O.NEW.KDTX.WW.Y.0006.220213T1500Z-220214T0100Z/
Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-
Including the cities of Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor,
and Detroit
321 AM EST Sun Feb 13 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
8 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4
  inches.

* WHERE...Livingston, Oakland, Macomb, Washtenaw and Wayne
  Counties.

* WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Plan on poor visibilities and slippery road
  conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Some of the heavier intervals of snow will
  produce rates over an inch per hour. There will be wide
  fluctuations in both coverage and intensity of the snow showers
  across the advisory area. This will also cause rapid
  fluctuations in visibility and road conditions across relatively
  short distances.

[Stacsh]

GFS looks mighty torchy in the Great Lakes for the last 10 days of February.   

[Hawkeye]

I picked up 0.4" of snow overnight.

[OmahaSnowFan]

[OmahaSnowFan]

Can’t believe Pierre SD has only had 1” of snow. Of course Lincoln and Sioux City have only had 3”…

[CentralNebWeather]

2 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Can’t believe Pierre SD has only had 1” of snow. Of course Lincoln and Sioux City have only had 3”…

This is a large amount land with virtually nothing. You would think we’d luck into something. This isn’t just a 30 mile wide area that is being missed. 

[jaster220]

On 2/11/2022 at 9:08 PM, OmahaSnowFan said:

Like this one? Watching it gives me chills!

 

One of the most notorious x-way pile-ups and to have most of it captured on film is crazy. It's stomach turning stuff, especially when that semi that's still going full tilt piles into the 2 vehicles that JUST hit there moments before.

While this was happening (learned later ofc) I was going the opposite direction (thankfully) or west-bound on 94. This took place in the hilly stretch on the Calhoun/Kalamazoo county line. As I approached the west side of Battle Creek I saw the snow squall intensity was ramping up into the dangerously low visibility stuff so I took the last exit before the 5 mile stretch where this was in progress. Had I not, I may well have had a front row seat like this person filming. I learned early on from all my commuting on 94, squally wx is deadly with all the big rigs on that highway. Especially the steel haulers that are allowed to carry tonnage not allowed on any other route. You'll be pancaked in a heartbeat if hit by one of those rigs. Thanks for the memory, tho it's not a pleasant one to watch.

[westMJim]

Getting light snow falling here with a current temperature of 18.

[OmahaSnowFan]

46 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

One of the most notorious x-way pile-ups and to have most of it captured on film is crazy. It's stomach turning stuff, especially when that semi that's still going full tilt piles into the 2 vehicles that JUST hit there moments before.

While this was happening (learned later ofc) I was going the opposite direction (thankfully) or west-bound on 94. This took place in the hilly stretch on the Calhoun/Kalamazoo county line. As I approached the west side of Battle Creek I saw the snow squall intensity was ramping up into the dangerously low visibility stuff so I took the last exit before the 5 mile stretch where this was in progress. Had I not, I may well have had a front row seat like this person filming. I learned early on from all my commuting on 94, squally wx is deadly with all the big rigs on that highway. Especially the steel haulers that are allowed to carry tonnage not allowed on any other route. You'll be pancaked in a heartbeat if hit by one of those rigs. Thanks for the memory, tho it's not a pleasant one to watch.

Those sounds of the crunching when the vehicles crash are so stomach churning but especially when that semi barrels in.

I remember a big one caught on a DOT cam on I35 north of Des Moines a couple years ago too. Couldn’t hear the sound though.

[snowstorm83]

2 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Can’t believe Pierre SD has only had 1” of snow. Of course Lincoln and Sioux City have only had 3”…

Wow, Pierre with 1.4" wins the prize as the most shocking and sad. Their seasonal avg is 37.2", much of that is in March and early April but still wow. 

[Clinton]

18z GFS

[Stacsh]

8 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z GFS

Only model showing the second wave that strong and north.  Would be surprised if this scenario plays out.  Also would be near blizzard conditions here.  

[Clinton]

7 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Only model showing the second wave that strong and north.  Would be surprised if this scenario plays out.  Also would be near blizzard conditions here.  

I may end up disappointed but I feel like the GFS is doing better with this storm.  It did better with the last one aswell.

[jaster220]

LOL. If any of you were jealous of my headline, don't be. I didn't get 3 or 4 tenths here, let alone 3 or 4 inches. 

 

[snowstorm83]

43 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

LOL. If any of you were jealous of my headline, don't be. I didn't get 3 or 4 tenths here, let alone 3 or 4 inches. 

 

If I ever live in a lake effect snow area I would never be able to move to a non lake effect area 

[jaster220]

5 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

If I ever live in a lake effect snow area I would never be able to move to a non lake effect area 

So, to be fair. There was a "death band" that moved through my county this evening but in classic fashion since moving here, it just grazed me with a couple tenths. Meanwhile, just to my E/NE it was such a whiteout that there was a pile-up on the freeway. Other than the Nov clippers, it's just been a case of getting missed in every direction by the good stuff. It's a different form of last winter's torture. 

[Niko]

50 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

LOL. If any of you were jealous of my headline, don't be. I didn't get 3 or 4 tenths here, let alone 3 or 4 inches. 

 

Major accidents on i-696 as very hvy snow blanketed the area. Detroit received 1.6." Nothing here in Macomb. My area got spared as most of the hvy stuff was to my south.

[Minny_Weather]

Got about an inch from the blob that passed through earlier. 5*F.

[Niko]

Take a look at Detroit earlier today as heavy LES hit the area:

[Bellona]

Well James...this is depressing lol

[Tom]

Going to keep this short and sweet....Winter is returning to the central Plains....models are latching onto the long standing idea of a major pattern change for the western members.  A couple of the past Euro Control runs show a major shot of cold knifing down the leeward side of the Rockies...aka "Blue Norther".  Let's see how this all shakes out.

 

 

The next storm(s) are lining up on the calendar (21st-23rd, 27th-3/1) and I believe this time the Euro OP/EPS have the right idea going forward.  Big flip in the EPO going (-) which will be the driving force.  SER develops and a quintessential SW Flow aloft ignites an active STJ.  Going to be busy tracking systems as we close out FEB and open MAR.  

 

 

[Tom]

Just brutal cold up in the Northwoods this past Sun morning...

[westMJim]

The overnight low here was +4 before it started the slow trend upwards. At this time it is cloudy and +12 here. There was 0.6" of snow fall here yesterday and there was a brief period of heavy snow fall when most of that fell. To the east Lansing recorded 2.6" of snow yesterday. 

[CentralNebWeather]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

Going to keep this short and sweet....Winter is returning to the central Plains....models are latching onto the long standing idea of a major pattern change for the western members.  A couple of the past Euro Control runs show a major shot of cold knifing down the leeward side of the Rockies...aka "Blue Norther".  Let's see how this all shakes out.

 

 

The next storm(s) are lining up on the calendar (21st-23rd, 27th-3/1) and I believe this time the Euro OP/EPS have the right idea going forward.  Big flip in the EPO going (-) which will be the driving force.  SER develops and a quintessential SW Flow aloft ignites an active STJ.  Going to be busy tracking systems as we close out FEB and open MAR.  

 

 

I sure hope so @Tom