February 2022 Observations and Discussions

[Clinton]

Hope this region doesn't get hit like it did in December, lots of instability and shear this time.

[tStacsh]

Gone is the extreme cold in the long range.  Remember, don't buy what the GFS is showing.  It's almost March.  Winter is almost over.  

[bud2380]

Euro Control

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

2 hours ago, gimmesnow said:

Why do you even want snow in Omaha? There was one ski/snowboard resort in the whole state and it was sold off to be homes. All you have is snowmobiling in a few select state parks. What do you do with it besides take pictures and shovel? And every time a storm tracks through by you it misses me. Just shut up and talk about the weather, no one cares and no one likes it when you get snow.

Huh?

[OmahaSnowFan]

3 hours ago, Madtown said:

...pretty sure its been nothing but b!tchin and complaining for roughly 6 years on how it never snows in Omaha and if it does its never enough. Recently turned into attacking one of the main contributors to the board. Make some predictions yourself sometime. Have a great day and smile a bit more.

It’s cute you think I’m not smiling (laughing) a lot on here already.

[Madtown]

32 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

It’s cute you think I’m not smiling (laughing) a lot on here already.

smile away Karen smile away.

 

Anyways weather-Looks like 2" or so tomorrow followed by maybe 6+ Monday into Tues. Make for a great last few weeks of sleddin!

[snowstorm83]

3 hours ago, gimmesnow said:

Why do you even want snow in Omaha? There was one ski/snowboard resort in the whole state and it was sold off to be homes. All you have is snowmobiling in a few select state parks. What do you do with it besides take pictures and shovel? And every time a storm tracks through by you it misses me. Just shut up and talk about the weather, no one cares and no one likes it when you get snow.

The change in scenery is nice. The bright sky in the middle of night when there’s fresh snow on the ground and still falling. It’s hard to explain, but I enjoy snow and I’ve never skied or snowboarded in my life. Also we’re in a drought and most of the moisture in winter falls as snow, not that we’re getting any rain either though lol.

[OKwx2k4]

7 hours ago, Tom said:

I have confidence in what I believe in…do not construe it as arrogance…  
 

For the record, I do appreciate constructive criticism but not the flat out disrespectful ways you criticize posts…and yes, when I bust I make it public.  

In defense of most, the expected end date for La Niña vs it's continued strength to present has had a lot to do with our "late" winter. The Niña base state is only just now showing weakening. This translates to our ridge problem. The cold pdo ring is breaking down as well. I expected that a while ago, too or for undercutting to begin.

It failed. Simple.

[OKwx2k4]

20 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Serious question.  Why does the snow shield in the first picture extend 100s of miles up into the high pressure north of it, way north of the 540 line,  and the snow shield in the second picture gets shunted so that it barely goes north of the 540 line?

You're seeing a very rapid gradient lightening there and not a lot of give out of the HP parked there so eventually overrunning will cease. You lose moisture.

My unprofessional opinion/explanation/experience.

The 540 line can be sketchy sometimes as well. Has been for years. Its a guide, not a rule. If that makes sense.

Stuff like that is what make guys like me study winter so much. Its hard. I always have dynamics and 4 precip types to worry about. That 540 line will tick you off when people are asking you questions. Lol.

[OmahaSnowFan]

At least Pierre, SD and it’s 1” of seasonal snowfall so far has a good chance to add to that.

[East Dubzz]

Unless next week’s system is going to drop 8+”, no thanks at this point. Especially after that nice weather we’re going to get on Sunday.

[Minny_Weather]

Ha, GFS gives me 18" over a 48 hour period next week.

[Niko]

Next week looks mighty interesting here in S MI as more storms are eyeing the area. O boy! look out!!!! Also, the snow dept will be adding up significantly in the coming days.

[GDR]

[CentralNebWeather]

2 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

Serious question.  Why does the snow shield in the first picture extend 100s of miles up into the high pressure north of it, way north of the 540 line,  and the snow shield in the second picture gets shunted so that it barely goes north of the 540 line?

I’ve had the exact same question. 

[OttumwaSnomow]

2 hours ago, MSP_Weather said:

Ha, GFS gives me 18" over a 48 hour period next week. I got zero.

Dont buy that for one minute! Had  me 10 to 20 inches 3 days. I got zero.

 

Edited February 18, 2022 by OttumwaSnomow
Missed a thought

[OmahaSnowFan]

Lolz.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Our temps have leveled off for the night, the winds have turned SE and are increasing a bit already as we head for 56 degrees tomorrow afternoon.

[Tom]

Just a teaser here....models are locking in on a #SnowBlitz for our Sub....giddy up and buckle up...

 

[Tom]

Fired up a storm thread for the President's Day storm....

 

[Tom]

Back-To-Back Storms are the Theme for next week...nature dialing up a great pattern for more snows into the same areas that just got hit and I got a feeling this is going to be quite an interesting ride into early MAR.

0z EPS looking much better...get ready KC peeps and @Clintonas this one IMO will produce a much healthier snow shield.  This system has a true southern stream cutter look that drops a lot of snowfall for the MW/Lakes region....

 

0z EPS suggests the cold is here to stay....in fact, I was surprised to see how much colder the Euro Weeklies from last night got for the entire Sub into Mid March.

 

You can thank the tanking -EPO to open MAR....March will be Roaring in Like a Lion this year...

 

 

 

[Tom]

Just another day in Paradise up north...what a winter they've been experiencing...You can add another Blitz Warning to the list!  60 mph wind gusts....Mercy!

Quote

Blizzard Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
846 PM CST Thu Feb 17 2022

MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-022-027-029-030-NDZ008-016-027>030-038-
039-049-052-053-190000-
/O.CON.KFGF.BZ.W.0007.220218T1200Z-220219T0000Z/
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-West Marshall-East Marshall-
Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk-Mahnomen-West Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-Pembina-Eastern Walsh-Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-
Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Ada,
Twin Valley, Halstad, Moorhead, Hallock, Karlstad, Lancaster,
Roseau, Warroad, Greenbush, Warren, Stephen, Argyle, Newfolden,
Middle River, Grygla, Thief River Falls, Red Lake Falls, Fosston,
Fertile, McIntosh, Erskine, Mahnomen, Naytahwaush, Waubun,
Detroit Lakes, Breckenridge, Fergus Falls, Cavalier, Walhalla,
Drayton, Pembina, Neche, St. Thomas, Grafton, Park River,
Grand Forks, Cooperstown, Finley, Hope, Mayville, Hillsboro,
Hatton, Portland, Valley City, Fargo, Lisbon, Enderlin, Gwinner,
Milnor, Forman, Rutland, and Wahpeton
846 PM CST Thu Feb 17 2022

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations
  of up to two inches. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Minnesota and
  northeast and southeast North Dakota.

* WHEN...From 6 AM to 6 PM CST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Widespread blowing
  snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Strong
  winds could cause tree damage. The cold wind chills as low as
  30 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as
  little as 30 minutes.

 

[Tom]

I took a gander with a bit more in depth analysis into the LR pattern and I'm really flabbergasted at the resemblance between the LR GEFS/EPS Weeklies for the opening 10-15 days of MAR.  It appears the back loaded Winter of 2021-22 is just getting started.  Holy smokes, but this is a solid signal, one that I have not seen all season long that quite possibly will include a majority of our western/central members to cash in for some late season white gold.  This could get very interesting and could set the stage for a spectacular finish to Winter.

 

 

 

[Clinton]

I had a low temperature of 5 this morning, winds have switched to the south and have temps are on the rise.  Should be a sunny windy day with temps in the low 30s.

[westMJim]

Well it once again looks like winter outside. While most of the snow that fell yesterday was south and east of here I did pick up 1.6" of new snow here. Officially GRR reported 2.3" of snow fall yesterday. At Grand Rapids the total for February is now at 14.8" and for the season 60.4" At Lansing they reported 4.3" of new snow fall and are now at 22.6" for February and 46.3 for the season. Muskegon is still way below average as they only pick up .9" of new snow and for February they are only at 8.6" and just 44.5" for the season that is a whopping -22.5" from where they should be at this time.  At this time it is cloudy and 16 here at my house.

[Niko]

A very potent CF coming tanite w more snows and actually, the main story will be the very strong winds that could gust to near or better than 50mph here. Snowfallwise, maybe an inch or 2, or slightly more, if Lake Huron helps w that north wind.

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[Madtown]

-22 on the morning low today

[james1976]

WWA for snow showers with 50mph wing gust later today. Should be interesting. Luckily I don't have to drive anywhere. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

[Niko]

I am keeping my eyes on late next week for S MI.

[CentralNebWeather]

12 Noon, 52 degrees. The Southern Plains winter continues in the Central Plains. 

[Clinton]

On 2/7/2022 at 9:58 AM, MIKEKC said:

Let's put the LRC to test. 

Based off a 61-66 day cycle, we can expect the storm parade to start around Feb. 15th to 20th. and continue through March 10th-15th.  Now, snow or rain here in KC? All depends on the teleconnections. The 0Z and 06Z GFS reloaded the pattern with cold right around the storm parade. WE SHALL SEE! 

Anyhow, cycle one was very wet here in KC and we took direct hits from each storm through the first 30 days of the new LRC. 

First hit was October6th, where KCI recorded .15 inches of rain but at my house east of the reporting station I received .57 inches of rain. 

Oct 10th through the 11th, big storm in the Plains, 2-3 inches here in KC.

Oct. 12th 13th, Large ULL tracks NW of KC, snowstorm in the western Dakotas, KC was dry on this storm. 

Oct. 14th-15th, cold front with thunderstorms, .50-1inch in KC.

Oct. 22nd 24th, Big 3 day storm system, heavy rain in the Plains. Severe weather broke out in the Plains on the 24th with tornadoes in MO.....SE of KC. 

Oct. 27th-30th, large storm system in the Plains, 2-3 inches here in KC. 

Nov. 1st, small disturbance in NW flow hit KC and the first snowflake of the season fell that day. The disturbance actually maxed out here and we received much more than forecasted as far as total moisture goes. 

Nov. 9th-10th, another 1-2 inches of rain fell here in KC.

The above was the first 30-35 days of cycle one. This part of the pattern is due to to cycle around Feb. 15th-20th 

So, the first storm per the LRC should cycle around Feb. 15th to 20th, following that, should see plenty of action all the way up to march 10th-15th. Should we see the pattern block up, we could possibly see one hell of a stretch of winter storms post Feb.15th. 

Let's see how it all plays out.

 

 

 

22 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Gary is having a hey day today with his predictions for yesterday's storm based on the LRC.  He's using the LRC to say there's a 70% chance of snow this coming Thursday in or around KC.  

Looks like @MIKEKCbreakdown was pure gold!

[Tom]

40 minutes ago, Clinton said:

 

Looks like @MIKEKCbreakdown was pure gold!

I'm not the only weather nut who is seeing this pattern deliver a lot of opportunities for our Sub!

[Tony]

Looks like some snow squalls will be coming through later today with the cold front. Could make for a wintry ride home later.

[Tom]

3 minutes ago, Tony said:

Looks like some snow squalls will be coming through later today with the cold front. Could make for a wintry ride home later.

I'm actually hoping we can score some of those as they are always fun to see....the snow today is sorta getting nuked by dark surfaces bc its so dang fluffy.

[snowstorm83]

3 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

I feel for you guys up there.  Lincoln too.  Last year, I was so jealous because you were getting nailed while we missed most of the snow.  Things often seem to find a way to balance out.  What gets me is how much difference a couple hundred miles can make over the course of a winter.  For one storm, it's not surprising. But you'd think over a four month stretch, a couple hundred miles wouldn't make a huge difference. 

I've thought it's been super weird how the same areas get hit several times and same areas get missed several times. 2016-17 and 2017-18, Siouxland area was often getting nailed. Last year was the I-80 train, and this year is the southern KS area though Central MO up to the Hanniball, MO area. 2018-19 was actually a nice spread the wealth year. 

[tStacsh]

Long range getting ever so slightly modified.  Looks for the bigger storms to cut more north.   

[Madtown]

Just dumping....snow squall warning

[bud2380]

Euro late next week.