February 2022 Observations and Discussions

[Tom]

6 hours ago, Beltrami Island said:

I don't know if this is pouring salt in the wounds for Iowa and Nebraska folks or not but couldn't resist sharing these from today.

Looks like you have experienced a #realwiinter of the Northwoods up there this season.  I remember you were sorta nervous in the beginning of the season that a 2011-12 redux was brewing given the N PAC pattern and lack of blocking in the NE PAC (+EPO in DEC).  Glad to see that a few of you up north are enjoying what has been a non-stop cold pattern up there that has kept a solid base since late NOV.  What is your snow depth?

[Beltrami Island]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Looks like you have experienced a #realwiinter of the Northwoods up there this season.  I remember you were sorta nervous in the beginning of the season that a 2011-12 redux was brewing given the N PAC pattern and lack of blocking in the NE PAC (+EPO in DEC).  Glad to see that a few of you up north are enjoying what has been a non-stop cold pattern up there that has kept a solid base since late NOV.  What is your snow depth?

I was concerned going into last winter based on developing drought conditions going through fall and the fact that my back yard was coming off of two well above average snow years... We were due for a down year and got just that, not as bad as 11-12, but not much better.

I don't think I posted much thoughts going into this winter. If I had, I would have said the slight improvement in drought over late summer and fall here along with weak to moderate strength la Nina conditions were promising...but anything is possible and really didn't have a strong feeling in any direction.

Do you wish for ten 2" snowfalls or one 20" snowfall? This winter has definitely been the ten 2" snowfall type winter here. 

Since the mid December thaw it has been consistently cold with light snowfalls every 5-7 days. 

If this winter can have legs deep into March without any thaws it may out due 18-19 in my mind. That year had an incredible 8 weeks of snow and cold but lost it's oomph the second week of March.

[GDR]

Gfs is showing some grilling days coming up in March… I can’t wait!!

[Tom]

2 hours ago, Beltrami Island said:

I was concerned going into last winter based on developing drought conditions going through fall and the fact that my back yard was coming off of two well above average snow years... We were due for a down year and got just that, not as bad as 11-12, but not much better.

I don't think I posted much thoughts going into this winter. If I had, I would have said the slight improvement in drought over late summer and fall here along with weak to moderate strength la Nina conditions were promising...but anything is possible and really didn't have a strong feeling in any direction.

Do you wish for ten 2" snowfalls or one 20" snowfall? This winter has definitely been the ten 2" snowfall type winter here. 

Since the mid December thaw it has been consistently cold with light snowfalls every 5-7 days. 

If this winter can have legs deep into March without any thaws it may out due 18-19 in my mind. That year had an incredible 8 weeks of snow and cold but lost it's oomph the second week of March.

The LR weeklies do look very optimistic to last well into MAR up your way.  When does the sun angle start to really take a beating?  Down here it starts to make an impact the last couple weeks of FEB.  I’ve always wondered how it is up there and when that “solar radiation “ period begins showing up.

[Andie]

A bit schizo this week.  
High of 78 today.  Then Wed/Thurs we’ll see cold rain and freezing rain. Low of 26!   
We have these swings but they can be rough.  

In the Panhandle they’re facing wind and wildfire alerts.  
Something for everyone!!
 

[tStacsh]

2 hours ago, GDR said:

Gfs is showing some grilling days coming up in March… I can’t wait!!

It's funny how cold the GFS was to open March, but that's gone for now.  Euro says it's going to warm up as well, at least to near to slightly above average.  So close to being done with this winter here.  Rain tomorrow, maybe some light snow Friday and then a few day cold shot, then we turn the corner.  

[tStacsh]

47 minutes ago, Tom said:

The LR weeklies do look very optimistic to last well into MAR up your way.  When does the sun angle start to really take a beating?  Down here it starts to make an impact the last couple weeks of FEB.  I’ve always wondered how it is up there and when that “solar radiation “ period begins showing up.

Can confirm.  Mid-40's here yesterday with full sun.  Eviscerated our snow pack.   Warmer day last week with clouds.  Did nothing.  

[westMJim]

Sunshine, winds and warm temperatures melted most of the snow yesterday. So now there are just traces of snow on the ground here along with the old snow piles. The high yesterday was a wind blown 48 and the overnight low was 28 before rising to the present 32. It now looks like it will be just a cold rain here for this event. We are now less than 3 weeks away from when in most years the snow will be mostly gone except for the occasional snow events we still can get for all of March and early April when there can be snow but it will be gone in a day or two.

[tStacsh]

It's been a really boring winter here in West Michigan.  You'd think with the cold there would have been more snow.  I wonder when the last time Muskegon has been this cold, but barely received any real lake effect all winter.  

[Tom]

1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

Can confirm.  Mid-40's here yesterday with full sun.  Eviscerated our snow pack.   Warmer day last week with clouds.  Did nothing.  

Yes, same thing here with full Sun and temps in mid 20’s you can see snow melt around the darker surfaces.  I’m curious to hear when that corner turns up a little higher in the mid latitudes.

[Madtown]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

The LR weeklies do look very optimistic to last well into MAR up your way.  When does the sun angle start to really take a beating?  Down here it starts to make an impact the last couple weeks of FEB.  I’ve always wondered how it is up there and when that “solar radiation “ period begins showing up.

About the same...even when 15 degrees last week the roads start to melt in the full sun. First pavement since Dec

[gimmesnow]

The snow turned into wintry mix and is now thunderstorms in the forecast for tomorrow. Fun fact looking at the climatology office, southern Wisconsin is on route for the worst snowfall since the winter of 1966-1967 if we don't get any more significant snows.

 

I can definitely feel it, this is easily one of the worst snowboard seasons ever at my home hill. Thank goodness I got a pass as cascade and it's far enough north to be the difference between snow and wintry mix in Portage and thunderstorms in walworth. It's still a short and crappy season, which really stings after spending over $800 in season passes. Cascade didn't even fully open all their runs until after Near Years because December was so poor weather-wise, and now it seems we will be cut short a week or two from normal (usually make it to St Patrick's day). I'm past the point of being salty about this, I'm more impressed, almost like I'm being punished for something, haha.

[WinterSquall23]

I have only been in Detroit Metro a few years. Have we had a normal winter . Living im the Northwest, I remember turning on the weather channel in the late 80s and seeing that snow line nail Michigan. Wisconsin, Minnesota etc all the time.  It seemed to me we had a year or two where it didnt snow at all.  Coming from a town that averages 6 inches a year, I thought we were doing good when it snowed even 3 inches.  It seems over there it snowed a lot harder over there.  I havent seen that kind of snow intensity here yet.  Snowstorms were a mess, started out freezing rain, sleet than wet snow follwed by an artic blast then a long overunning event.  For reference we did have a 2 foot snow in 80 or 81 in my hometown.  A low pressure system came in and stalled in the Columbia River Gorge spinning mousture over us for two days. Friends of mine were snowed in at 6 feet with only 1000 ft elevation.  Here is what it looked like at sea level at our house during the storm.  My Dad called it the big snow.  

 

For reference , there is a 1000 foot ridge behind us. 

[james1976]

After yesterday's mid 50s its hard to not look forward to spring

[Beltrami Island]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

The LR weeklies do look very optimistic to last well into MAR up your way.  When does the sun angle start to really take a beating?  Down here it starts to make an impact the last couple weeks of FEB.  I’ve always wondered how it is up there and when that “solar radiation “ period begins showing up.

I guess I don't fully understand what your asking. If your asking when sun starts affecting the snow surface despite below freezing temps? March 10-15 I'd say. When it affects roadways and rooftops despite below freezing temps? I'd say around now.

[Timmy Supercell]

Lows still get chilly but we warm up quick, went from 28 to low 60's here and wall to wall sun in Ashland. 

Another chance of t'storms both today and tomorrow. I just want some thunder and lightning, it doesn't have to be trees coming down and power outages. It's like western KY hopes the next tornado isn't going to be like the last; and I'm waiting for this town's first thunder since last summer.

[Clinton]

GEFS and EPS tank the EPO.  We may have a brief warm up to start March but only brief imo.

 

[james1976]

GFS looks pretty wild first week of March. That's long range though.

[Hawkeye]

It appears we will come up well short of our expected highs today.  The wind is from the east, not southeast like few models suggested, and the east wind has also brought low clouds into the area.  The temp rose to 42º and hit a wall.  We've actually fallen back a degree or two.

[Madtown]

3 hours ago, Beltrami Island said:

I guess I don't fully understand what your asking. If your asking when sun starts affecting the snow surface despite below freezing temps? March 10-15 I'd say. When it affects roadways and rooftops despite below freezing temps? I'd say around now.

x2!

[OmahaSnowFan]

5 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Can confirm.  Mid-40's here yesterday with full sun.  Eviscerated our snow pack.   Warmer day last week with clouds.  Did nothing.  

The UV index on my weather station now shows most days with a 5 or 6. Low point in December/early January is 2 most days. Sun is definitely a lot stronger

[OmahaSnowFan]

14 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

It appears we will come up well short of our expected highs today.  The wind is from the east, not southeast like few models suggested, and the east wind has also brought low clouds into the area.  The temp rose to 42º and hit a wall.  We've actually fallen back a degree or two.

We overachieved (again). Morning low was 28.9 about 730a and it shot all the way up to 50.0 at just after 10a. Temps have leveled out now though and the north winds have just started picking up. Still 48.7 IMBY though, but that will probably start falling here shortly.

[CentralNebWeather]

We were at 46 early this morning until the front came through about 6:30 AM.  We have now dropped to 20 with a wind chill below 0 with winds gusting 35-40 MPH with low clouds.  Miserable day with brown ground.  We'd really see brutal conditions if we had the snow cover we had last February with those record cold temps we set. 

[jcwxguy]

Currently 66 here in Auburn, Ne with calm wind. 

[snowstorm83]

10 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

We overachieved (again). Morning low was 28.9 about 730a and it shot all the way up to 50.0 at just after 10a. Temps have leveled out now though and the north winds have just started picking up. Still 48.7 IMBY though, but that will probably start falling here shortly.

Lincoln hit 46 earlier, now front passed through a temp dropping. We're ready for more below zero temps and dry ground, so yay. It's been a very mild year (especially with high temps) but no shortage of brief cold snaps despite the lack of snow. 

[OmahaSnowFan]

52 minutes ago, snowstorm83 said:

Lincoln hit 46 earlier, now front passed through a temp dropping. We're ready for more below zero temps and dry ground, so yay. It's been a very mild year (especially with high temps) but no shortage of brief cold snaps despite the lack of snow. 

It has been a winter of pretty big swings in temps, sometimes even in the same day. I shared a stat earlier this month about a 40 degree swing in temps and how it's only happened like on 1% of all February days. I've had 2 of those this month and another 2 with a 39 degree temp difference between lows and highs.

[jcwxguy]

1 hour ago, jcwxguy said:

Currently 66 here in Auburn, Ne with calm wind. 

Cold front has hit and has dropped 5-8 degrees the last 20/30 minutes

[gabel23]

It's becoming comical. Everything all around Nebraska experiencing winter weather. Then throw in a winter storm watch down to our southeast why don't ya. I would be shocked if we receive any snow the rest of the winter we are jinxed this year for sure. 

[OttumwaSnomow]

3 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

It appears we will come up well short of our expected highs today.  The wind is from the east, not southeast like few models suggested, and the east wind has also brought low clouds into the area.  The temp rose to 42º and hit a wall.  We've actually fallen back a degree or two.

It made 62 today. Same yesterday.  57 now.

[mlgamer]

Enjoying the last few minutes of spring with a temp of 71.1F in MBY. Not expected to get above freezing again until Saturday. I'm not expecting any major precip during this time even with the upcoming Thursday system.

ETA: looking at radar, the arctic front is about 10 miles NW of me and heading this way!

[james1976]

 Local met has 40 and sunny all next week 

[Tom]

2 hours ago, gabel23 said:

It's becoming comical. Everything all around Nebraska experiencing winter weather. Then throw in a winter storm watch down to our southeast why don't ya. I would be shocked if we receive any snow the rest of the winter we are jinxed this year for sure. 

Not to mention, but you can add yet another Blizzard Warning for Fargo!  How many is that…10, 11 for the season?

[gabel23]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Not to mention, but you can add yet another Blizzard Warning for Fargo!  How many is that…10, 11 for the season?

It's insane up there! I have been looking at their news and they had a major pile up on I-94 today. Fargo has experienced blizzard warning criteria for 12+ hours. Heavy snow and temps below zero to boot! This is number 9 according to one source I have seen. I would love to see what it looks like with drifts around shelter belts; if they have them up there I'm not sure?! If they do they have to be approaching 30-40 feet with all the snow and blowing snow so far this year. They had their first blizzard back in November and it hasn't let up. 

[Minny_Weather]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Not to mention, but you can add yet another Blizzard Warning for Fargo!  How many is that…10, 11 for the season?

I believe this is the 8th or 9th.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Oma-Dome!!

[Minny_Weather]

20 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Oma-Dome!!

Money has been off this whole winter. You think he'd be having a field day with this.

[CentralNebWeather]

1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Oma-Dome!!

Nothing surprises me with this winter. Just abysmal. 

[Bryan1117]

31 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Nothing surprises me with this winter. Just abysmal. 

It's getting beyond comical now... at this point let's make a run for the record books for snowfall futility and stick a fork in this lame and boring Winter... to add salt in the wound was looking back at pictures of my kids building tunnels through the snow drifts and piles in our front yard exactly one year ago. This year it seems like we can't even get a dusting.

Hopefully we will see a pattern shift next month to rain and lots of thunderstorms to beat back the developing drought. 

[Bellona]

What are the odds this breaks in the spring and we go from nothing to flood in 2 weeks? Usually seems to be what happens after a long period of little to no precip. Doesn't seem to be much of a balance anymore like when I was a kid. It's either freezing, blazing, dry as the desert, or historic flooding. 

[snowstorm83]

Yeah it’s not funny, but at the same time it’s also hilarious. It’s definitely about the worst case scenario possible, one of those winters you’ve heard about but don’t actually think will happen to you