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February 2022 Observations and Discussions


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7 hours ago, Niko said:

I guess its never too late to think about "Spring" when February is here, considering March is next month, so here is a little peak of it.....

https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Screen-Shot-2022-02-03-at-11.30.38-AM.png?w=632

Man o man. That drought is a growing bummer.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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In the last hour the temperature has dropped from +2 to 0° there remains 5″ of snow on the ground. Officially at the airport there is 6.0″ reported on the ground. For February since 1894 the average snow depth at Grand Rapids is 4.9″ In that time there have been only 8 years with no snow on the ground the last time was in 2020. The most on the ground on February 4th is 20″ and that was in 1959. There was 18″ on the ground on this date in 2014 and 2011 and 1904. Last year there was 2″

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

@Niko looks like Greece has seen some unusual winter wx...ice forming in parts of the Mediterranean Sea?  Wild Stuff.

https://electroverse.net/sea-freezes-in-greece-arctic-blast-sends-u-s-nat-gas-futures-to-record-highs-covid-narrative-crumbling/

 

 

There is a first time for everything I guess....😅

Crazy weather going on there.

Look at this unreal: Athens, Greece

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FJ5d1UxXoAg5U7k?format=jpg&name=900x900

 

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Final Snowfall as of today July 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area.

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

I'd like to show you how much bias the EPS Weeklies have over the W NAMER region when looking at LR data (esp during the heart of winter).  It's not just this model but the CFSv2 monthlies and other global models have done the same thing this cold season.  For some reason, whether it is the La Nina ongoing in the central PAC, the models were predicting a strong trough in this region throughout the heart of winter.  I do understand why in DEC this was a feature that stood out and was well advertised but I began to become suspicious as we head into JAN and esp now into FEB.  Look at the sequence of EPS weeklies from 4 runs ago, 3 runs and now the latest run.

1.png

2.png

 

Major reversal in the NE PAC/W NAMER region...until I see something different in the Upper Strat region at 10mb, I really think this pattern has legs into early MAR.  If you are following the CFSv2 monthlies, yup, the same correction is taking place which is lining up with my LR call for a bold/cold open to MAR and yes, I'm predicting the Plains states to get in on the action.  Whether you want to see more winter conditions this month or not, I see a FEB '15 flavor for the 1st 2 weeks of this month across the eastern SUB, then a more general widespread colder pattern across the board later in FEB.

 

3.png

 

"Something Special"...the pattern in and around the GL's region is going to benefit from a NW Flow Clipper Train next week which leads us to an interesting period around the 10th/11th (reloading cold).  The GEFS are, and have been, sniffing out a lead clipper to dive S/SE into the Upper MW/GL's region.  I'd like to see a few more runs but there are some nice looking ensemble members thrown in the mix later next week.  There is a system which is forecast to track up along the EC into NewFoundland, Canada mid next week that will pump a ridge in the N ATL.  This feature will ultimately produce and blocking pattern that will unleash a shot of arctic air next weekend for the MW/GL's region.  PV Intrusion??  Are there more on the table?  Indeed, there is a likelihood of more rounds of cold for this region...

image.png

 

0z EPS trends for the aforementioned period mid next week across across the N ATL...blossoming ridge...unleashes the "Fridge"...not to mention, that nearly every single global model is now locked onto the NE PAC ridge that I alluded to would develop for the majority of this month based on LR tools using the Strat.

 

1.gif

 

This is showing signs to have legs....

temp10anim.gif

 

 

LR GEFS....here's the current forecast during the opening days of MAR...let's see how this pattern develops over the next couple weeks.

4.png

 

If you want to believe the Euro Weeklies, they are in the same camp as the LR GEFS, that late FEB into MAR the pattern should shift more wintry for the Plains states that are on the sidelines currently.  Some may be making up in the snow dept out that way.  I'm both hopeful and encouraged at the data that is suggesting a more active pattern out that way.

7.png

 

Alrighty Mother Nature, you started off FEB with a large impacting Ground Hog Day winter storm, what do you have in store for the remainder of this month??  Opening up the month with a Bang....finishing the month off with a Bang??  #BangBang'22

Praying this verifies.  Looks more and more like we have been missed with moistue about as much as any place in the nation since the Fall.  

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1 minute ago, mlgamer said:

So here's the scorecard for how much snow we've had this winter season. Not for the faint-hearted if you live in the central part of the country.

Screenshot 2022-02-04 at 08-48-50 National Snowfall Analysis - NOHRSC - The ultimate source for snow information.png

Just had a tear come to my eye.  Abysmal.  Not good when Oklahoma, Texas, Tennessee, and others have had more snow than Central Nebraska.

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I take it others have it worse than I do. My first impression from Ashland KY is that we've seen bigger events.

About 1/4" of white and hardly any ice. That rain was so heavy it took forever to switch. 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 24
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Nice storm for a lot of people.  Not much here, but whatevs.  Looks blah for the next 10 days for most everyone here.   Cold with no bigger storms on the horizon.  This winter can end soon for all I care.  

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7 hours ago, Tom said:

I'd like to show you how much bias the EPS Weeklies have over the W NAMER region when looking at LR data (esp during the heart of winter).  It's not just this model but the CFSv2 monthlies and other global models have done the same thing this cold season.  For some reason, whether it is the La Nina ongoing in the central PAC, the models were predicting a strong trough in this region throughout the heart of winter.  I do understand why in DEC this was a feature that stood out and was well advertised but I began to become suspicious as we head into JAN and esp now into FEB.  Look at the sequence of EPS weeklies from 4 runs ago, 3 runs and now the latest run.

1.png

2.png

 

Major reversal in the NE PAC/W NAMER region...until I see something different in the Upper Strat region at 10mb, I really think this pattern has legs into early MAR.  If you are following the CFSv2 monthlies, yup, the same correction is taking place which is lining up with my LR call for a bold/cold open to MAR and yes, I'm predicting the Plains states to get in on the action.  Whether you want to see more winter conditions this month or not, I see a FEB '15 flavor for the 1st 2 weeks of this month across the eastern SUB, then a more general widespread colder pattern across the board later in FEB.

 

3.png

 

"Something Special"...the pattern in and around the GL's region is going to benefit from a NW Flow Clipper Train next week which leads us to an interesting period around the 10th/11th (reloading cold).  The GEFS are, and have been, sniffing out a lead clipper to dive S/SE into the Upper MW/GL's region.  I'd like to see a few more runs but there are some nice looking ensemble members thrown in the mix later next week.  There is a system which is forecast to track up along the EC into NewFoundland, Canada mid next week that will pump a ridge in the N ATL.  This feature will ultimately produce and blocking pattern that will unleash a shot of arctic air next weekend for the MW/GL's region.  PV Intrusion??  Are there more on the table?  Indeed, there is a likelihood of more rounds of cold for this region...

image.png

 

0z EPS trends for the aforementioned period mid next week across across the N ATL...blossoming ridge...unleashes the "Fridge"...not to mention, that nearly every single global model is now locked onto the NE PAC ridge that I alluded to would develop for the majority of this month based on LR tools using the Strat.

 

1.gif

 

This is showing signs to have legs....

temp10anim.gif

 

 

LR GEFS....here's the current forecast during the opening days of MAR...let's see how this pattern develops over the next couple weeks.

4.png

 

If you want to believe the Euro Weeklies, they are in the same camp as the LR GEFS, that late FEB into MAR the pattern should shift more wintry for the Plains states that are on the sidelines currently.  Some may be making up in the snow dept out that way.  I'm both hopeful and encouraged at the data that is suggesting a more active pattern out that way.

7.png

 

Alrighty Mother Nature, you started off FEB with a large impacting Ground Hog Day winter storm, what do you have in store for the remainder of this month??  Opening up the month with a Bang....finishing the month off with a Bang??  #BangBang'22

Hi Tom, thanks for the long range update

Here in KC, the last 32 days, it's actually been below average on temps and above average on snow. Here in my part of KC, I have had 7.8 inches of snow since Jan. 1st in (3) separate storms. 

After a 10 day lull, the real active part of the LRC is coming, we must score with that.  Let's hope for 2-3 more storms just like the one we had this week. That storm was massive!!! Beautiful winter scene here in KC. Snow piles, snow packed roads, and 2 degrees this morning. True winter conditions. Love it!!

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My 7th grade boys assistant basketball coach is a farmer.  We had a road trip yesterday about 45 minutes away, so on the bus we were talking about the weather and the horribly dry fall and winter so far.  He said that a family friend of his on Wednesday night had some cattle get out and a couple were hit on Highway 183 north of Holdrege.  He went to check the electric fence, but it was working fine.  After more checking, he said that the cows touched the electric fence, but since there is no moisture in the ground, they were not grounded.  Some of the cows just walked right through the electric fence.  This farmer said in all of his years he had never seen anything like this, and it is as dry as he can ever remember.  This farmer is in his 70's.  

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Gary’s blog had a great write up about the cycle and when the next big storm will arrive.

•cycle length is 61-66 days for a average of 63.5 days

•every other cycle mirrors each other so this will be the wetter cycle 

• this week storm is related to the pattern on 10/2

• the next major storm to watch is 2/17 which is 64 days from the 10/2 storm 

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17 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Gary’s blog had a great write up about the cycle and when the next big storm will arrive.

•cycle length is 61-66 days for a average of 63.5 days

•every other cycle mirrors each other so this will be the wetter cycle 

• this week storm is related to the pattern on 10/2

• the next major storm to watch is 2/17 which is 64 days from the 10/2 storm 

so now it's every other cycle of a 63.5 day cycle that mirrors each other? Huh?

Then wouldn't that actually make it a 127 day cycle, especially since we're referencing a storm from 10/2 (which wasn't 64 days ago)?

 

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3 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

so now it's every other cycle of a 63.5 day cycle that mirrors each other? Huh?

Then wouldn't that actually make it a 127 day cycle, especially since we're referencing a storm from 10/2 (which wasn't 64 days ago)?

 

The key is any time you see the word cycle or LRC referenced, you just ignore it.  You will be much happier. 

Please LRC followers/believers can we have just one concrete example from past weather that a LRC forecast has verified?   

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13 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

so now it's every other cycle of a 63.5 day cycle that mirrors each other? Huh?

Then wouldn't that actually make it a 127 day cycle, especially since we're referencing a storm from 10/2 (which wasn't 64 days ago)?

 

Basically throw darts at a board and move the goal posts depending on what's happening.   There is no cycle, outside of Winter, spring, summer and fall.  100's of different influences on our weather pattern, all changing everyday.  I don't buy it, just because a storm showed up somewhere 60 days later.  There is always a storm somewhere.   Correlation is not causation.  

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1 hour ago, james1976 said:

Currently 5° with mood flakes. Another frigid morning with -6° on my way into work. 

Looks like I ended with about a quarter inch of fluff. Now a special weather statement popped up on my phone for blowing snow with 20-35mph wind coming in. Could be an interesting drive up 35 to the TC later.

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56 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Basically throw darts at a board and move the goal posts depending on what's happening.   There is no cycle, outside of Winter, spring, summer and fall.  100's of different influences on our weather pattern, all changing everyday.  I don't buy it, just because a storm showed up somewhere 60 days later.  There is always a storm somewhere.   Correlation is not causation.  

You're semi-correct. Thats all.

There's a "something" to it, but its far from perfect. It requires a lot of work and a heck of a human memory.

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A nice burst of snow is moving through Cedar Rapids.  It's the first snow I've seen since mid January.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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One of the only positives of this almost completely snowless winter, is we have not had to worry about road conditions.  My son plays on the 10 grade and JV basketball teams which is a total of 37 games.  Along with my coaching, we will have 47 basketball games.  With only 2 weeks left in the season, no games have been postponed or cancelled and no travel issues coming or going to games.  I promise this has never happened before in all the years I've gone to games as a fan or coach in the winter. 

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31 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Yes. Beautiful scene in the south edge of Cedar Rapids. The snow is light but coming down decent. Won’t amount to much but it’s fun to look at. 

At the peak the flakes were a good size and the rate was moderate.  I picked up a quarter inch.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The latest Euro is showing nothing but 30s and 40s here once today and tomorrow are past, and it shows another big surge of mild air moving in by day ten.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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So, finally went out to take a measurement (was waiting for the snow to stop completely, which it did late last night)....anyways, could have been a lot more, but I will take whatever Ma Nature provides.....9" Total!

 

Snowfall Tally.jpg

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Final Snowfall as of today July 2022 is: 47.1" Detroit Metro Area.

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Looks like KDWU totaled over 2.2" precipitation in 24 hours. That was our wettest event up to this point since meteorological winter started. Not to say there haven't been others this wet, Jan 1st was a great soaker too.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Thunders: 24
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 3 / 2
Frequent Lightning: 2 (5/20), (6/13)
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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It was snowing pretty good here at times this afternoon. I'd say we got about half an inch. First measurable snow since January 15! 

I sure hope we can get at least 1 or 2 more good snowstorms around here, but the models don't look good. If it's not going to snow, let's just move on to spring and get some heavy rain and thunderstorms around here.

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3 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Basically throw darts at a board and move the goal posts depending on what's happening.   There is no cycle, outside of Winter, spring, summer and fall.  100's of different influences on our weather pattern, all changing everyday.  I don't buy it, just because a storm showed up somewhere 60 days later.  There is always a storm somewhere.   Correlation is not causation.  

Here’s what I propose.  To all the “LRC” believers, please start a separate LRC thread next fall/winter season (which i hear will start in August this year 😉) when you think you got the cycle figured out (will it be 45, 50, 60, 1,293 days???) and update it throughout the winter to keep track of things.  Think that’s the best way to show us all just how accurate and effective it is.  Thoughts?

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6 hours ago, Beltrami Island said:

The key is any time you see the word cycle or LRC referenced, you just ignore it.  You will be much happier. 

Please LRC followers/believers can we have just one concrete example from past weather that a LRC forecast has verified?   

 

6 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Basically throw darts at a board and move the goal posts depending on what's happening.   There is no cycle, outside of Winter, spring, summer and fall.  100's of different influences on our weather pattern, all changing everyday.  I don't buy it, just because a storm showed up somewhere 60 days later.  There is always a storm somewhere.   Correlation is not causation.  

Yeah I’ve been here long enough AND follow weather closely enough that I’ve NEVER heard anyone talk of “alternating” cycles or whatever Lezak is claiming now. Not even the people who use the LRC here.

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4 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

 

Yeah I’ve been here long enough AND follow weather closely enough that I’ve NEVER heard anyone talk of “alternating” cycles or whatever Lezak is claiming now. Not even the people who use the LRC here.

I don't have any strong feelings about this subject either way, but Lezak has talked about alternating cycles in past years. I almost mentioned it when we were having our warm, dry December. Doesn't Jim Flowers talk of a 30-day cycle? Maybe folks should just ignore posts they have no interest in.

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  • 21-22 Total Snowfall: 21.1" (123% of seasonal normal 17.1" )
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2 hours ago, mlgamer said:

Yeah, I personally won't believe there is anything to this so-called LRC until I see it on CNN, MSNBC or another trusted news source.

They were just talking about the LRC On fox and friends this morning so it’s got to be true. That’s about as trusted as you can get.

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Oh my god corny lame boo, tomato tomato tomato, I’m throwing tomatoes 

From OAX: 

The City of Lincoln's 3.7" of snow is the least amount for a fall/winter season to date on record. 

Our records go back 75 years.

430EF9DE-0EA9-4F7A-9CE4-BDE454BECF1F.jpeg.78f90c25b50d3ed15b16c9e20a476a63.jpeg

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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3 hours ago, mlgamer said:

I don't have any strong feelings about this subject either way, but Lezak has talked about alternating cycles in past years. I almost mentioned it when we were having our warm, dry December. Doesn't Jim Flowers talk of a 30-day cycle? Maybe folks should just ignore posts they have no interest in.

Jim talks about 30 day cycles. Now he even talks about 15 day cycles.  Lezak talks about 42, 48, 55, and this year 61-66 day cycles. And now cycles that are the same yet different bc one is wet and one is dry.

Moving the goal posts as they say.

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The models did a good job with the clipper that just moved through last evening.  Had a few good bursts of heavier snow showers that rolled on through laying down another measurable snowfall (0.4").  Temps are dropping quickly behind this system.  Nice lil refresher.  The top layer has a "bumpy" look to it from the larger flakes that fell from the last wave.  @Tony @FV-MikeDid you guys get about the same?

1.gif

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I recorded just under a half inch of new snow fall here at my house and there is still 5" on the ground. Last nights snow makes it look very much like winter this morning.  The overnight low here was +2 and it looks like the official overnight low at GRR was +5. At this time with cloudy skies it is +6 here at my house.

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21 hours ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Gary’s blog had a great write up about the cycle and when the next big storm will arrive.

•cycle length is 61-66 days for a average of 63.5 days

•every other cycle mirrors each other so this will be the wetter cycle 

• this week storm is related to the pattern on 10/2

• the next major storm to watch is 2/17 which is 64 days from the 10/2 storm 

Don't worry about pissing some people off, there are a few that just want to be miserable.    Anyway it's usually a good sign there will be a storm when the EC and GFS show a storm in the same general area at the same time.  Hopefully we will get some blocking and some cold air into the middle part of the country so some on here can get a nice snow.  The MJO looks good but the AO and NAO look terrible atm.

EC is the warmer solution atm

1645056000-YCwGT0ws5Xg.png

GFS is colder and resembles the Oct 10th/11th.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_52.png

Either way I'm sure this will stay south and east of Omaha where surely no snow will ever fall again.

EPS is warmer GEFS is more bullish

1645272000-A30pbkK6kgU.png

 

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25 minutes ago, Clinton said:

GFS and Australian MJO.  I wish the AO and NAO looked this good.

0d40d5_c889e30b2e7049c6bb7597ff046b9d27~mv2.webp

Timing, timing, timing…the AO/NAO sure picked an ideal time to spike!  Craptastic…either way, there will likely be a storm to track after this lull in the pattern for your area.  Thankfully, the EPO will be playing ball.

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Don't worry about pissing some people off, there are a few that just want to be miserable.    Anyway it's usually a good sign there will be a storm when the EC and GFS show a storm in the same general area at the same time.  Hopefully we will get some blocking and some cold air into the middle part of the country so some on here can get a nice snow.  The MJO looks good but the AO and NAO look terrible atm.

EC is the warmer solution atm

1645056000-YCwGT0ws5Xg.png

GFS is colder and resembles the Oct 10th/11th.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_52.png

Either way I'm sure this will stay south and east of Omaha where surely no snow will ever fall again.

EPS is warmer GEFS is more bullish

1645272000-A30pbkK6kgU.png

 

Don’t forget the rest of us Nebraska posters that haven’t seen anything either! Even that map screws over everyone west of Omaha and Lincoln 

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