PNW February 2022 - Winters Last Stand

[ShawniganLake]

29 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

If we don't get a Miracle March or April, this summer fire season in California will dwarf all of the other historic fire seasons we just had. A 3rd of the country will probably be under smoke for most of the summer. Come on wet spring!

At some point the burn scars will start to inhibit the scope of these fires I would think.  Some of last summers fires in BC were slowed substantially when they moved into previously burnt areas from 2017 and 2018. 

[SnowWillarrive]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Silly comment.    And not representative of Snoqualmie Summit in any way... which you would know if you have ever been there.  

Lol exactly.

Literally half the people up at Snoqualmie are not white. These days I mostly see East Asians and Indian people skiing.
 

I guess these days though that counts as white. 

[Omegaraptor]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'll believe it when I see it. It defies belief we won't pay the piper in terms of wet weather down the road during a La Nina spring, but we'll see.

12z GEFS long range is a downgrade on precip from 00z and 06z. Probably a decent indication of how this will end up going.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I think there is reason to be concerned about the summer.  Yes, the WA Cascades are pretty normal now, but if the dry weather continues all Spring, even Washington could have more bad fires, let along Oregon and California. 

I had not realized that both the Wellington disaster and the Great Fire of 1910 were the same year.  The Wellington disaster was caused by a 9 day blizzard. Snow fell at times at one foot per hour, and one day saw 11 feet of snow.   I can't even imagine that.  Don't know about precip for the rest of Eastern WA. Idaho. BC, or Oregon, but they must have had some heavy precipitation with that and during the early winter and Fall.

Yet the Great Fire of 1910 still happened as it was apparently bone dry after that. The big fire was 3 million acres in 2 days, and there were many more large fires as well.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I think there is reason to be concerned about the summer.  Yes, the WA Cascades are pretty normal now, but if the dry weather continues all Spring, even Washington could have more bad fires, let along Oregon and California. 

I had not realized that both the Wellington disaster and the Great Fire of 1910 were the same year.  The Wellington disaster was caused by a 9 day blizzard. Snow fell at times at one foot per hour, and one day saw 11 feet of snow.   I can't even imagine that.  Don't know about precip for the rest of Eastern WA. Idaho. BC, or Oregon, but they must have had some heavy precipitation with that and during the early winter and Fall.

Yet the Great Fire of 1910 still happened as it was apparently bone dry after that. The big fire was 3 million acres in 2 days, and there were many more large fires as well.

Yeah... it can rain and snow all winter but if spring and summer is hot and dry then there will inevitably be problems.   And vice versa too.   

[Phishy Wx]

10 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I think there is reason to be concerned about the summer.  Yes, the WA Cascades are pretty normal now, but if the dry weather continues all Spring, even Washington could have more bad fires, let along Oregon and California. 

I had not realized that both the Wellington disaster and the Great Fire of 1910 were the same year.  The Wellington disaster was caused by a 9 day blizzard. Snow fell at times at one foot per hour, and one day saw 11 feet of snow.   I can't even imagine that.  Don't know about precip for the rest of Eastern WA. Idaho. BC, or Oregon, but they must have had some heavy precipitation with that and during the early winter and Fall.

Yet the Great Fire of 1910 still happened as it was apparently bone dry after that. The big fire was 3 million acres in 2 days, and there were many more large fires as well.

Spokane had 25" of snow in winter 1909-10. so that must've been a localized event.  kinda weird and maybe similar to your huge snow in Dec when most of E WA is well below normal snowfall wise for this winter

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... it can rain and snow all winter but if spring and summer is hot and dry then there will inevitably be problems.   And vice versa too.   

Yes, there are definitely a lot of factors. We could have a wet spring and early summer, or an early system in August could end fire season early. 2017 turned into a terrible fire season after a cold/wet winter. 

[Phishy Wx]

Heating up over in Phil ville

 

 

[MossMan]

That was such a fun/dynamic day. From full sun and deep blue skies to heavy snow in a span of about 3 hours or so. 

[Wheezer]

9 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Heating up over in Phil ville

 

 

Funny how they compare it to 1942 as if that one year was the norm

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, Wheezer said:

Funny how they compare it to 1942 as if that one year was the norm

ummm, that's the period of record for Reagan Airport

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

At some point the burn scars will start to inhibit the scope of these fires I would think.  Some of last summers fires in BC were slowed substantially when they moved into previously burnt areas from 2017 and 2018. 

Well, that's a positive takeaway. Soon, there will be no more fires because every last tree will have already burned to the ground. 

[Omegaraptor]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

At some point the burn scars will start to inhibit the scope of these fires I would think.  Some of last summers fires in BC were slowed substantially when they moved into previously burnt areas from 2017 and 2018. 

Read at one point that in 10-15 years at this rate fires in the Sierra will decrease in intensity because there won’t be as many trees left to burn.

[Phishy Wx]

Speaking of heat

 

 

[Phishy Wx]

 

[AlTahoe]

25 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Makes Portland’s two (so far) seem not so bad 

We might reach 60F today at 6200'!

NWS has a forecast of 59F. It is currently 51F 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

19 minutes ago, MossMan said:

That was such a fun/dynamic day. From full sun and deep blue skies to heavy snow in a span of about 3 hours or so. 

That was our coldest day of that month. Was snowing by evening. Then it switched back and forth for a few days while you guys got nailed up there, then after valentines it was pretty much 2-6” of snow every day the rest of the month. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

Spokane had 25" of snow in winter 1909-10. so that must've been a localized event.  kinda weird and maybe similar to your huge snow in Dec when most of E WA is well below normal snowfall wise for this winter

I wondered about that too.  So bizarre to have a 9 day blizzard.

[BLI snowman]

9 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

I wondered about that too.  So bizarre to have a 9 day blizzard.

There was a significant regional arctic airmass in late February 1910 on the 21st-22nd that then transitioned into a more zonal pattern with heavy coolish rain in the lowlands and heavy snow in the mountains. The avalanche took place on March 1 by which point a ton of snow had fallen up there.

1909-10 was also a really chilly La Nina winter with a ton of precip. Not many Cascade records that far back but I'd have to imagine that it would be up there with more recent banner Nina snowpack years like 1955-56, 1971-72, 1973-74, and 1998-99.

[SouthHillFrosty]

 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Still foggy here in Salem. 

[Phishy Wx]

Etna at it in Sicily

 

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

41 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

There was a significant regional arctic airmass in late February 1910 on the 21st-22nd that then transitioned into a more zonal pattern with heavy coolish rain in the lowlands and heavy snow in the mountains. The avalanche took place on March 1 by which point a ton of snow had fallen up there.

1909-10 was also a really chilly La Nina winter with a ton of precip. Not many Cascade records that far back but I'd have to imagine that it would be up there with more recent banner Nina snowpack years like 1955-56, 1971-72, 1973-74, and 1998-99.

Great info, thanks!

[Phil]

The subtropical lower stratosphere is unusually warm right now, which is contributing to the powerful PV via the thermal wind.

Could be this is what is ultimately responsible for this pattern maintaining such a firm grip.

[Phil]

Basically a volcanic stratosphere right now (this precedes Tonga, and is more likely a combo of Australian fires in 19/20 and Taal eruptions in 20/21).

Closest match at this point in QBO cycle is 1992, though that was a potent El Niño. So the pattern this spring likely won’t evolve the same way following the disintegration of the PV.

[Omegaraptor]

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sto&sid=KVCB&num=72&raw=0

94°F in Vacaville, CA. What the actual phuck? Death Valley record in Feb is 97 for comparison. Northern CA having their own 12/1/21 in eastern WA?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Gfs is stuck. Weather cancel. 

[Omegaraptor]

84 in Brookings. This is a new record for the state of Oregon in February if I’m not mistaken. Pretty insane that it happened on the 10th.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Basically a volcanic stratosphere right now (this precedes Tonga, and is more likely a combo of Australian fires in 19/20 and Taal eruptions in 20/21).

Closest match at this point in QBO cycle is 1992, though that was a potent El Niño. So the pattern this spring likely won’t evolve the same way following the disintegration of the PV.

92-93 winter analog would be just fine with me.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

15 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

84 in Brookings. This is a new record for the state of Oregon in February if I’m not mistaken. Pretty insane that it happened on the 10th.

Torching begets torching.

[Phishy Wx]

I'm expecting some 90s by March, maybe some triple digits by April.  Let's GO TEAM!!!

[Meatyorologist]

28 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Torching begets torching.

Who needs balance when you can watch the region warm at an accelerating rate

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Who needs balance when you can watch the region warm at an accelerating rate

In real time!!!

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sto&sid=KVCB&num=72&raw=0

94°F in Vacaville, CA. What the actual phuck? Death Valley record in Feb is 97 for comparison. Northern CA having their own 12/1/21 in eastern WA?

I'd say they need to invest in a new thermometer. It was 72 in Napa and 73 in Sacramento today. Looks like a lot of personal stations in the Vacaville area were in the 75-77 range.

[TT-SEA]

It was only 85 even here in Palm Springs.   Just a spectacular day.

[Meatyorologist]

Honestly thought it was southern Chile

[NWbyNW]

Probably old news to everyone here.

Washington : 120F

[MWG]

[Phil]

What an absolute monster.

Dominance.