Nice you have a "pattern" optimism. That's not really my strong suit beyond knowing when one is obviously NOT good for us, lol. And you're correct, seen some systems kind of sneak up out of nowhere and deliver. Here's to hoping. At least the LES has saved us from just staring at bare ground. Scant covering I have is at least winter white if not deep.

Here's the member view of the 18z GEFS. The dawgs it does have get a bit colder than the best dawgs on the 12z, but there's also more complete flops. Most important 00z runs in the history of the human race tonight.

I love summer... just not humidity. 5 years in Tokyo really traumatized me. PNW summer is incredible, though.

Pretty sure that WAS an analog season fwiw. That one personally donut-holed mby except for the first half of February.

We could even get a surprise mini system or two that’s not modeled well at long range in the next week or two in this pattern so not all this cold is wasted hopefully.