March 2017 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[stuffradio]

Not sure how anyone could get tired of snow in the PNW. 

You would be surprised how many move to this area from the east because of the lack of snow.

[epiceast]

There are many reasons to live here... late season snow is one of the negatives.     Even my kids are saying the same thing and all of our neighbors that I have talked to as well.  

 

But ultimately we likely see more snow and just have to deal with it!  

Gated neighborhood lol

[epiceast]

You would be surprised how many move to this area from the east because of the lack of snow.

(in the mountains)

[TT-SEA]

Gated neighborhood lol

 

I am using the term neighbors loosely... I really mean people in the area.   Including the endless parade of kids that are over here with my kids and their parents who we talk to all the time.    Last Friday when were still in Florida... my son showed me about 15 posts on Instragram from their friends bemoaning the snow that here that day.  

 

I remember most of them being very excited about snow in December.   Human nature.   

[Bryant]

You would be surprised how many move to this area from the east because of the lack of snow.

I get it if you move here from a snowy climate. But anyone born and raised here who has a love for snow should never get sick of it. We aren't spoiled enough to become sick of it

[Bryant]

18z snowfall maps

 

gfs_asnow_nwus_21.png

What do I have to do to make this verify? Someone please tell me

[TT-SEA]

I get it if you move here from a snowy climate. But anyone born and raised here who has a love for snow should never get sick of it. We aren't spoiled enough to become sick of it

 

I believe timing is important for most people.     

[Tenochtitlan]

I've definitely had my snow appetite sated by this winter. It would be cool if it snowed again, but I'd rather it snow a lot or not at all, I'm not excited by one or two inches at this point. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

What do I have to do to make this verify? Someone please tell me

Run through downtown Ballard completely naked with a sign on your back that says, "I LOVE SNOW".... It works every time - Guaranteed!

[luvssnow_spokane]

I've definitely had my snow appetite sated by this winter. It would be cool if it snowed again, but I'd rather it snow a lot or not at all, I'm not excited by one or two inches at this point. 

1 or 2 inches of slush is just not the same a cold frozen winter wonderland. So I agree.

[Guest Dome Buster]

Has the 18z ever been right?

[Timmy]

Has the 18z ever been right?

its just like the 12z in the short term...  and the answer is "yes".  

[Timmy Supercell]

Precipitation from October 1, 2016 - February 28, 2017 total 35.17.

 

Average precipitation a year 37.19. 

 

And that average is for a water year, not a calendar year? Just want to make sure, there are averages for both.

[FroYoBro]

PDX is going to get that .3 for the win still.

[Bryant]

I believe timing is important for most people.

Don't plan things in March that are impacted by snow then. Especially during a Ninã

[Jesse]

Don't plan things in March that are impacted by snow then. Especially during a Ninã

But I'm a yuppie and used to getting everything else I want!

[TT-SEA]

But I'm a yuppie and used to getting everything else I want!

 

Shut up.    Rude comment.

 

Why would you bring up economics in a discussion about preferring nicer weather now?   That has nothing do with your economic situation.

[TT-SEA]

Don't plan things in March that are impacted by snow then. Especially during a Ninã

 

No kidding.   Good rule it to never plan anything in March regardless.   Does not change the desire for nicer weather at this point.   

 

And side note... we are not really in the middle a Nina right now.    Not that it matters. 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png

[bainbridgekid]

No kidding.   Good rule it to never plan anything in March regardless.   Does not change the desire for nicer weather at this point.   

 

And side note... we are not really in the middle a Nina right now.    Not that it matters. 

 

 

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png

Pretty crazy to see it rise from -0.6 to +0.8 in literally 5 days.

[Jesse]

No kidding. Good rule it to never plan anything in March regardless. Does not change the desire for nicer weather at this point.

 

And side note... we are not really in the middle a Nina right now. Not that it matters.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png

The atmosphere is in its most Niña like state yet, FWIW. Check out the ENSO thread.

[TT-SEA]

The atmosphere is in its most Niña like state yet, FWIW. Check out the ENSO thread.

 

Exactly why I said it does not matter.    The SSTA's map show we do not have Nina right now.    But the atmosphere obviously can vary from the actual ENSO state.

 

Although some people said the atmosphere was in a Nina state throughout the entire 2015-16 Nino (not Phil).  

[Deweydog]

Has the 18z ever been right?

No.

[Jesse]

Exactly why I said it does not matter. The SSTA's map show we do not have Nina right now. But the atmosphere obviously can vary from the actual ENSO state.

 

Although some people said the atmosphere was in a Nina state throughout the entire 2015-16 Nino (not Phil).

This isn't just Jim trying to fit a square peg into a round hole.

[TT-SEA]

This isn't just Jim trying to fit a square peg into a round hole.

 

Not this time... but there does seem to be a tendency on here by some to say the atmosphere is always in a Nina even during a Nino.    

[Guest Dome Buster]

Last weekend I went up to Welches and it snowed pretty good but it was real wet.  Leaving tomorrow after work for Government Camp for the weekend.  Forecast looks good for some good mid 20's snow.

[Brennan]

There are many reasons to live here... late season snow is one of the negatives. Even my kids are saying the same thing and all of our neighbors that I have talked to as well.

 

But ultimately we likely see more snow and just have to deal with it!

Your kids will be put in it when it snows. Snow lovers can say they arent excited for more snow, but it all comes out when the flakes begin to fall... maybe just my opinion.

[Jesse]

No.

What about that one time?

[Timmy]

Last weekend I went up to Welches and it snowed pretty good but it was real wet. Leaving tomorrow after work for Government Camp for the weekend. Forecast looks good for some good mid 20's snow.

not if the 18z is wrong

[Guest Dome Buster]

not if the 18z is wrong

You know I'm speaking of low elevation snow forecasts per any of the GFS models.  It's all garbage most of the time.  Even the Euro has had a poor track record outside of 72 hours this year. 

 

Pfft, it is raining right now and short term models had precipitation holding off here until after midnight.

[Trainwreck]

You know I'm speaking of low elevation snow forecasts per any of the GFS models. It's all garbage most of the time. Even the Euro has had a poor track record outside of 72 hours this year.

 

Pfft, it is raining right now and short term models had precipitation holding off here until after midnight.

Must bet he density of the euro then. Gfs has less density.

[snow_wizard]

The NWS seems pretty convinced about lowland snow. They are going for surface to 200 foot snow levels Sunday / Monday.

[Guest Dome Buster]

The NWS seems pretty convinced about lowland snow. They are going for surface to 200 foot snow levels Sunday / Monday.

Fox12 down here bit on low snow levels overnight Sunday, IE; early Monday, and again overnight Monday, IE; early Tuesday.  Calling for at least a dusting anywhere.  We will see.

[Deweydog]

What about that one time?

Good point.

 

Yes.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Portland NWS said this was a typical pattern for this time of year in their AFD

[epiceast]

00z NAM showing a heavy snowfall performance in Missoula.

[snow_wizard]

Portland NWS said this was a typical pattern for this time of year in their AFD

What we're in right now...yes. What we will be in a couple days from now...no.

[Jesse]

I noticed there was a shift to even more cold members on the 18z ensembles.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What we're in right now...yes. What we will be in a couple days from now...no.

 

They really did...

 

Common early spring pattern for the weekend, as cool upper low will

sit offshore. This low will send occasional disturbances in the flow

into the Pac NW. Net effect will be to enhance shower activity, and

even bring a slight chance of afternoon/early evening thunderstorms

to the coastal areas. With snow levels sitting between 1000 and 1500

feet, would expect see small hail with the heavier showers, and brief

accumulations of snow to the higher hills. Rockey. 

[Jesse]

They really did...

 

Common early spring pattern for the weekend, as cool upper low will

sit offshore. This low will send occasional disturbances in the flow

into the Pac NW. Net effect will be to enhance shower activity, and

even bring a slight chance of afternoon/early evening thunderstorms

to the coastal areas. With snow levels sitting between 1000 and 1500

feet, would expect see small hail with the heavier showers, and brief

accumulations of snow to the higher hills. Rockey. 

 

What idiots.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What idiots.

 

True, the airmass we will see Saturday-Monday is really about a once every 5 year or so March airmass. The 18z had thickness bottoming out at 518 at Salem.