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August 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

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#1151
Jesse

Posted 18 August 2017 - 04:00 PM

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The WPAC warm pool is really cooking now. Once the MJO reaches the Pacific during the first week of September..😳


We just had one of our longest stretches of heat on record earlier this month, and this could very well end up our warmest month on record. 😳

Can't go up much from there. Especially with the days starting to shorten.

#1152
TT-SEA

Posted 18 August 2017 - 04:06 PM

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SEA managed to get up to 71 today.   

 

There has not been a high temperature at SEA below 70 since June 28th.   

 

Except for the week of smoke and heat... this has been just about as perfect as it gets in the summer here.  



#1153
Deweydog

Posted 18 August 2017 - 04:09 PM

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It's been a delightful week.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1154
Phil

Posted 18 August 2017 - 04:13 PM

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We just had one of our longest stretches of heat on record earlier this month, and this could very well end up our warmest month on record. 😳

Can't go up much from there. Especially with the days starting to shorten.


Warmest second week of September on record? IMO it's hard to envision a scenario without another heatwave for the PNW, given the massive burst of off-equator WPAC convection upcoming. Those waters are on absolute fire..up to 95*F over a large swath of the northern IPWP domain.

The heat is done once the MJO leaves the WPAC in late September, though. From there, the departure of the MJO will only assist in collapsing the EHEM monsoonal engine and develop the Siberian High.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#1155
wx_statman

Posted 18 August 2017 - 04:21 PM

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Warmest second week of September on record? IMO it's hard to envision a scenario without another heatwave for the PNW, given the massive burst of off-equator WPAC convection upcoming. Those waters are on absolute fire..up to 95*F over a large swath of the northern IPWP domain.

The heat is done once the MJO leaves the WPAC in late September, though. From there, the departure of the MJO will only assist in collapsing the EHEM monsoonal engine and develop the Siberian High.

 

I wonder what sort of forcing birthed the September 1988 heat wave? +28C at 850 and 105 at the surface in September...


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#1156
Phil

Posted 18 August 2017 - 04:24 PM

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I wonder what sort of forcing birthed the September 1988 heat wave? +28C at 850 and 105 at the surface in September...


Good question. My hunch is that it was a WPAC MJO over an enhanced warm pool and strong EASM, but I'll have to check just to be sure.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#1157
wx_statman

Posted 18 August 2017 - 04:29 PM

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Good question. My hunch is that it was a WPAC MJO over an enhanced warm pool and strong EASM, but I'll have to check just to be sure.

 

We were in moderate Nina territory (MEI around -1.5) so it would make sense that warmer waters were present in the WPAC. That's about all I can say.  :lol:



#1158
Phil

Posted 18 August 2017 - 04:31 PM

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We were in moderate Nina territory (MEI around -1.5) so it would make sense that warmer waters were present in the WPAC. That's about all I can say. :lol:


What dates was the heatwave centered? I'm going to check the VP200 anomalies to check if an MJO was the cause.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#1159
wx_statman

Posted 18 August 2017 - 04:32 PM

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Regarding the WPAC warm pool - PNW heat wave connection, it's interesting to note that two of the greatest September heat waves on record along the West coast occurred during significant -ENSO events (1955 and 1988), when warmer than average waters were present in the western Pacific. 



#1160
wx_statman

Posted 18 August 2017 - 04:34 PM

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What dates was the heatwave centered? I'm going to check the VP200 anomalies to check if an MJO was the cause.

 

September 1-3rd, peak on the 2nd. 



#1161
Phil

Posted 18 August 2017 - 04:35 PM

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Regarding the WPAC warm pool - PNW heat wave connection, it's interesting to note that two of the greatest September heat waves on record along the West coast occurred during significant -ENSO events (1955 and 1988), when warmer than average waters were present in the western Pacific.


Indeed, especially by the standards of that cooler climate era. there was a very enhanced/poleward-shifted WPAC warm pool during September 1988.

F56C2D6C-10CC-4165-96CB-7472FF916754_zps
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#1162
Phil

Posted 18 August 2017 - 04:39 PM

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September 1-3rd, peak on the 2nd.


Hmm, interesting. In that case it wasn't a warm pool MJO since the convection was centered over the IO at the time and was in wavenumber one mode. I'll check the predecessor streamfunction anomalies (proxy for Hadley Cell) and Eurasian AAM/UWD anomalies, and then hopefully will have a better answer.

Could also be diabatic forcing instigating a retrograding cyclonic RWB cycle which fed back onto the tropical statics and ignited the western ridge and MJO later in the month.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#1163
Jesse

Posted 18 August 2017 - 05:24 PM

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Warmest second week of September on record? IMO it's hard to envision a scenario without another heatwave for the PNW, given the massive burst of off-equator WPAC convection upcoming. Those waters are on absolute fire..up to 95*F over a large swath of the northern IPWP domain.

The heat is done once the MJO leaves the WPAC in late September, though. From there, the departure of the MJO will only assist in collapsing the EHEM monsoonal engine and develop the Siberian High.


This is starting to feel like one of those things you overhype for weeks that ultimately ends up flopping (frigid June 2017!!!). At least that's what I'm hoping. :P
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#1164
Timmy_Supercell

Posted 18 August 2017 - 05:40 PM

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The sun is red this evening in Klamath Falls.


Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

------------------------------------------------------------

(Personal Winter Totals since 2010)

'10-'11 = 58.20" (161% of normal)

'11-'12 = 49.00" (136% of normal)

'12-'13 = 16.70" (46% of normal)

'13-'14 = 9.05" (25% of normal)

'14-'15 = 2.85" (8% of normal)

'15-'16 = 54.45" (151% of normal)

'16-'17 = 63.00" (175% of normal)

 

Nov '16: 1.20" (30% of normal)

Dec '16: 11.10" (123% of normal)

Jan '17: 29.50" (246% of normal)

Feb '17: 12.90" (161% of normal)

Mar '17: 5.60" (224% of normal)

Apr '17: 2.70"

 

Nov '15: 4.00" (100% of normal) (Avg: 4.00")

Dec '15: 33.10" (367% of normal) (Avg: 9.00")

Jan '16: 10.75" (90% of normal) (Avg: 12.00")

Feb '16: 3.50" (43% of normal) (Avg: 8.00")

Mar '16: 3.10" (124% of normal) (Avg: 2.50")

Apr '16: T

 

OTHER WEATHER DATA

-------------------------------------------------------------

*Max 1 Day Snowfall: 12.40" (01/03/2017)*

*Max Snow Depth: 21.00" (01/07/2017)*, 18.00" (12/24/2015)

Max High (F): 101 (07/02/2013), 99 (07/02/2015)

Min High (F): 6 (12/08/2013), 7 (01/06/2017), 8 (01/05/2017)

Max Low (F): 63 (07/04/2015)

Min Low (F): -20 (12/08/2013), -19 (01/06/2017), -17 (01/05/2017)

Max Wind Gusts:

58-60 (10/15/2016), 60-65 (10/26/2016) ( 55+ MPH (09/12/2016), 67 MPH (01/19/2016), 65 MPH (02/06/2015), 63 MPH (02/05/2015), 62 MPH (02/17/2016),

56 MPH (02/08/2015), 55 MPH (12/03/2015), 58 MPH (10/25/2014), 55 MPH (12/30/2011), 58 MPH (09/04/2011), 54 MPH (03/13/2011), 58 MPH (02/15/2011), 60+ (02/14/2011)

T'storm Days: 8 (2017), 12 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) - 1980-2015 Avg = 12 Days

Severe T'storms: 4 (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012)

Vicinity Severe T'storms: 9 (dates below)

09/04/2011, 09/12/2011, 08/12/2013, 08/22/2013, 08/04/2014, 08/05/2014, 06/09/2015, 07/05/2015, 07/09/2015

Earliest Warm-Core T'storm: (04/03/2016)

Latest Cold-Core T'storm (06/17/2016)

Latest <32 low (06/18/2014)

Latest "20's" low (06/11/2016) (28 degrees)


#1165
Kayla

Posted 18 August 2017 - 05:45 PM

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Seems like as of late there have been quite a few signs that this winter could be another cold/snowy one for the PACNW. Warm fall would also point to that IMO.



#1166
Jesse

Posted 18 August 2017 - 05:49 PM

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Seems like as of late there have been quite a few signs that this winter could be another cold/snowy one for the PACNW. Warm fall would also point to that IMO.


Not at all. Many of our best winters have had chilly falls. Octobers especially.

#1167
Kayla

Posted 18 August 2017 - 08:16 PM

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Not at all. Many of our best winters have had chilly falls. Octobers especially.

 

This is true but there have also been a lot of great winters following warm falls as well, specifically warm Novembers.


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#1168
Deweydog

Posted 18 August 2017 - 08:28 PM

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One, two, three, four I declare a fall war!
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#1169
Jesse

Posted 18 August 2017 - 09:07 PM

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This is true but there have also been a lot of great winters following warm falls as well, specifically warm Novembers.


The November thing has many examples, so I can definitely see that one. As for autumns that are warm overall (every month), they don't have the best track record.

#1170
BLI snowman

Posted 18 August 2017 - 09:29 PM

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The November thing has many examples, so I can definitely see that one. As for autumns that are warm overall (every month), they don't have the best track record.

 

Cool October and mild November is a decent combo, historically.


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#1171
wx_statman

Posted 19 August 2017 - 12:45 AM

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The November thing has many examples, so I can definitely see that one. As for autumns that are warm overall (every month), they don't have the best track record.

 

There's always a hail mary like 1988-89, but yeah most of our wall-to-wall warm falls have led to crap winters. That list is dominated by the likes of 1974-75, 1980-81, 1991-92, 1999-00, 2012-13 and 2014-15. 


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#1172
TT-SEA

Posted 19 August 2017 - 05:30 AM

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00Z ECMWF shows PDX pushing 100 next Sunday (8/27) and 101 on Monday (8/28) at the end of the run.



#1173
WeatherArchive

Posted 19 August 2017 - 06:39 AM

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One, two, three, four I declare a fall war!

Five,six,seven,eight,who do we really love yet hate?



#1174
WeatherArchive

Posted 19 August 2017 - 06:39 AM

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00Z ECMWF shows PDX pushing 100 next Sunday (8/27) and 101 on Monday (8/28) at the end of the run.

It needs to quit pushing.



#1175
Kayla

Posted 19 August 2017 - 07:58 AM

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The November thing has many examples, so I can definitely see that one. As for autumns that are warm overall (every month), they don't have the best track record.

 

Yeah I agree. But I'm talking about if you specifically average out the 3 months of fall and if that average ends up above average than it can be a good sign. Just last year or 2008 for example – Slightly warm Sept, slightly cool Oct, very warm Nov add the departures together together you still get a 3 month warm average.

 

As others have mentioned, the clearest signal of all is a cool October and warm November but many of those years had a warm 3 month average. 



#1176
stuffradio

Posted 19 August 2017 - 08:46 AM

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Yeah I agree. But I'm talking about if you specially average out the 3 months of fall and if that average ends up above average than it can be a good sign. Just last year or 2008 for example – Slightly warm Sept, slightly cool Oct, very warm Nov add the departures together together you still get a 3 month warm average.

 

As others have mentioned, the clearest signal of all is a cool October and warm November but many of those years had a warm 3 month average. 

2008 was quite warm until mid-December for me. I remember thinking "Am I ever going to get snow this year?" while running comfortably around the block in the beginning of December.

 

On another note, the temps have been normal or below normal today and yesterday. I also got heavy showers yesterday, it was almost pouring for a few minutes.



#1177
Jesse

Posted 19 August 2017 - 09:10 AM

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2008 was quite warm until mid-December for me. I remember thinking "Am I ever going to get snow this year?" while running comfortably around the block in the beginning of December.

On another note, the temps have been normal or below normal today and yesterday. I also got heavy showers yesterday, it was almost pouring for a few minutes.


October was well below average that year.

#1178
Phil

Posted 19 August 2017 - 09:18 AM

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Despite a (likely) warm September this year, I see a pretty notable pattern change to troughiness/-PNA during the final week of the month.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#1179
Jesse

Posted 19 August 2017 - 09:28 AM

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Yeah I agree. But I'm talking about if you specifically average out the 3 months of fall and if that average ends up above average than it can be a good sign. Just last year or 2008 for example – Slightly warm Sept, slightly cool Oct, very warm Nov add the departures together together you still get a 3 month warm average.

As others have mentioned, the clearest signal of all is a cool October and warm November but many of those years had a warm 3 month average.


Not sure if there is much of a signal either way there. But falls where all three months run warm aren't generally followed by great winters.

Last year September was cool and October was slightly mild, for the record.

#1180
stuffradio

Posted 19 August 2017 - 11:11 AM

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October was well below average that year.

Not here in Abbotsford, the average high was about 58 and the average low was about 41. The average high was higher than the actual average high, but the average low was slightly colder than normal.



#1181
ShawniganLake

Posted 19 August 2017 - 11:28 AM

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Not here in Abbotsford, the average high was about 58 and the average low was about 41. The average high was higher than the actual average high, but the average low was slightly colder than normal.

You sure? Which station are you looking at. October 2008 at YXX, looks like -1.1F on both the high and the low.

#1182
stuffradio

Posted 19 August 2017 - 11:36 AM

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You sure? Which station are you looking at. October 2008 at YXX, looks like -1.1F on both the high and the low.

http://climate.weath...ame=2&Year=2008

 

 

http://climate.weath...=702&dispBack=1

 

The daily average temperature for October is 10.5C but the average high was 14.4C and the average low was 5.3C. I was also using some data for Abbotsford from TWN, so that might be where the problem lies.



#1183
ShawniganLake

Posted 19 August 2017 - 11:46 AM

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http://climate.weath...ame=2&Year=2008


http://climate.weath...=702&dispBack=1

The daily average temperature for October is 10.5C but the average high was 14.4C and the average low was 5.3C. I was also using some data for Abbotsford from TWN, so that might be where the problem lies.

Oh. Maybe TWN is different. Because the EC data shows an average October temp of 15.0/ 5.9C. Daily mean of 10.5C. So 2008 was -0.6C across the board.

#1184
stuffradio

Posted 19 August 2017 - 01:22 PM

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It's been a pretty average day today, not hot not cold with partly cloudy skies.



#1185
Phil

Posted 19 August 2017 - 04:00 PM

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Some (very) preliminary cold season analogs I'm looking at.

Biased -ENSO/-QBO. Haven't factored in solar et al. The years in question are 1951/52, 1956/57, 1967/68, 1981/82, 1989/90, 1993/94, 2000/01, 2003/04, 2005/06, and 2012/13.

2BA6D3E5-ACEB-4924-A2B8-E5988849393E_zps

748F41CE-4757-4574-B6E3-AA31F1182812_zps

F156246D-F9D7-4388-AB22-EA52EA2AD5AF_zps

A3EDA95B-5655-4A63-A3DB-DD778883F5F0_zps

38215076-C7C0-4B4B-A3C2-E7D5C34B1D17_zps

19516978-3FE6-4839-9E76-CD8DD5B36ACF_zps

BEF8D914-AA52-4E44-B985-316F4B86FACF_zps
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#1186
Phil

Posted 19 August 2017 - 04:02 PM

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Will definitely refine this with time, but I'm getting mostly warm returns for autumn (October looks transitional) and a cooler than average D/J/F.

The January blocking sticks out like a sore thumb, as well.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#1187
Kayla

Posted 19 August 2017 - 04:37 PM

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Not sure if there is much of a signal either way there. But falls where all three months run warm aren't generally followed by great winters.

Last year September was cool and October was slightly mild, for the record.

 

Agreed. However, 1990, 1998, 2008, 2016 all had a 3 month warm fall average so it's definitely a noteworthy signal in recent times which is all I was noting several posts ago. 



#1188
wx_statman

Posted 19 August 2017 - 05:31 PM

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Ironically, 2016 is probably the best match to this year in terms of MEI progression from April to July, at least back to 1950. Don't have to look very far.


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#1189
Phil

Posted 19 August 2017 - 06:44 PM

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Ironically, 2016 is probably the best match to this year in terms of MEI progression from April to July, at least back to 1950. Don't have to look very far.


I think that's where the similarities end, though. We have a weaker sun, opposite QBO, and opposite IOD this year, so IMO the DJF pattern will almost certainly behave differently relative to 2016/17 across the high latitudes and NPAC.

What I'm not sure about is whether we go the route of 2007/08, 2011/12, etc, or the route of 1981/82, 1960/61, etc.
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#1190
Phil

Posted 19 August 2017 - 06:51 PM

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The WPAC is on πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯

cdas-sflux_sst_global_1.png
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#1191
wx_statman

Posted 19 August 2017 - 09:17 PM

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I think that's where the similarities end, though. We have a weaker sun, opposite QBO, and opposite IOD this year, so IMO the DJF pattern will almost certainly behave differently relative to 2016/17 across the high latitudes and NPAC.

What I'm not sure about is whether we go the route of 2007/08, 2011/12, etc, or the route of 1981/82, 1960/61, etc.

 

PDO is significantly lower as well, compared to last year at this time. 


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#1192
wx_statman

Posted 19 August 2017 - 10:09 PM

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I've been looking some more at last winter...turns out 2016-17 had a historically significant (at least with regards to modern observations) disconnect between the ENSO state and the PDO phase. Completely out of sync. The DJF ONI was -0.4, qualifying as cold neutral bordering on a weak Nina. However, the DJF averaged monthly PDO was a whopping +0.88, which is something you might expect in a weak/moderate Nino event. 

 

The last time we saw such a degree of +PDO in conjunction with an ONI as low as -0.4 during DJF was during the 1980s. We had a run of three straight winters from 1983-86 that saw the following ONI/PDO values:

 

1983-84: ONI -0.5; PDO +1.47

1984-85: ONI -0.9; PDO +1.01

1985-86: ONI -0.4; PDO +1.04

 

That streak came at the tail end of a remarkable 8 year run of +ENSO domination that had prevailed since 1976. I've heard the PDO described before as nothing more than a decadal expression of the background ENSO state, since the two coupled oceanic/atmospheric indices are teleconnected. The fact that we were able to maintain such a remarkably positive +PDO despite transitioning to -ENSO conditions in the mid-1980s perhaps lends credence to that idea. 

 

Either way, it's interesting that we had gone more than 30 years without seeing a similar disconnect between ENSO conditions and PDO during boreal winter.


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#1193
BLI snowman

Posted 19 August 2017 - 10:19 PM

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I've been looking some more at last winter...turns out 2016-17 had a historically significant (at least with regards to modern observations) disconnect between the ENSO state and the PDO phase. Completely out of sync. The DJF ONI was -0.4, qualifying as cold neutral bordering on a weak Nina. However, the DJF averaged monthly PDO was a whopping +0.88, which is something you might expect in a weak/moderate Nino event.

The last time we saw such a degree of +PDO in conjunction with an ONI as low as -0.4 during DJF was during the 1980s. We had a run of three straight winters from 1983-86 that saw the following ONI/PDO values:

1983-84: ONI -0.5; PDO +1.47
1984-85: ONI -0.9; PDO +1.01
1985-86: ONI -0.4; PDO +1.04

That streak came at the tail end of a remarkable 8 year run of +ENSO domination that had prevailed since 1976. I've heard the PDO described before as nothing more than a decadal expression of the background ENSO state, since the two coupled oceanic/atmospheric indices are teleconnected. The fact that we were able to maintain such a remarkably positive +PDO despite transitioning to -ENSO conditions in the mid-1980s perhaps lends credence to that idea.

Either way, it's interesting that we had gone more than 30 years without seeing a similar disconnect between ENSO conditions and PDO during boreal winter.


All 4 were pretty decent winters. Might be a good thing.

#1194
wx_statman

Posted 19 August 2017 - 10:56 PM

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All 4 were pretty decent winters. Might be a good thing.

 

That crossed my mind too. 



#1195
TT-SEA

Posted 20 August 2017 - 07:37 AM

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00Z ECMWF operational and control runs watered down the heat for next weekend and beyond.   Looks like the EPS is quite a bit warmer and more ridgy in that time frame.  



#1196
BLI snowman

Posted 20 August 2017 - 08:58 AM

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Pretty much end to end torching on the 12z.


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#1197
Phil

Posted 20 August 2017 - 09:35 AM

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I've been looking some more at last winter...turns out 2016-17 had a historically significant (at least with regards to modern observations) disconnect between the ENSO state and the PDO phase. Completely out of sync. The DJF ONI was -0.4, qualifying as cold neutral bordering on a weak Nina. However, the DJF averaged monthly PDO was a whopping +0.88, which is something you might expect in a weak/moderate Nino event.

The last time we saw such a degree of +PDO in conjunction with an ONI as low as -0.4 during DJF was during the 1980s. We had a run of three straight winters from 1983-86 that saw the following ONI/PDO values:

1983-84: ONI -0.5; PDO +1.47
1984-85: ONI -0.9; PDO +1.01
1985-86: ONI -0.4; PDO +1.04

That streak came at the tail end of a remarkable 8 year run of +ENSO domination that had prevailed since 1976. I've heard the PDO described before as nothing more than a decadal expression of the background ENSO state, since the two coupled oceanic/atmospheric indices are teleconnected. The fact that we were able to maintain such a remarkably positive +PDO despite transitioning to -ENSO conditions in the mid-1980s perhaps lends credence to that idea.

Either way, it's interesting that we had gone more than 30 years without seeing a similar disconnect between ENSO conditions and PDO during boreal winter.


Yeah, ENSO/PDO/PNA are a part the same mechanical "equilibration" system, which includes the NAM/SAM. From a multidecadal perspective, the boreal winter -NAM/-SAM circulation(s) constructively teleconnect to -ENSO/-PDO, and visa versa. The opposite holds true on millennial timescales but that's another topic altogether.

It's no coincidence that -PDO/-PNA/-NAM winters cluster in multiyear stretches with -PDO/-PNA dominance. It's also no coincidence that the flip to +NAM (starting in boreal winter 2011/12) was followed by the flip to +PDO/+PNA one year later, and it's no coividehcd that the last several years have featured huge +NAM/+NAO circulations during DJF.

- The 1950s to 1970s were predominantly -NAM/-PNA/-PDO
- The 1980s & 1990s were predominantly +NAM/+PNA/+PDO
- The late 2000s & early 2010s were mostly -NAM/-PNA/-PDO
- The 2013-present period is mostly +NAM/+PNA/+PDO

The leading variable is in fact the boreal winter NAO, which is a solid long term statistical predictor of the PDO and global temperature tendency years in the future.

- The abrupt flip to +NAO in the 1910s was followed by an transition to +PDO a few years later. The +NAO continued through the 1920s/1930s and began to decline in the 1940s.

- The steady decline in the NAO during the 1940s was followed by a flip to -PDO. The NAO continued to decline into the late 1960s and remained in its multidecadal negative state until the middle 1970s, during that multi-year super niΓ±a.

- The flip to +NAO in the mid/late 1970s corresponds to the "great Pacific climate shift" to +PDO thereafter. The +NAO continued until the early 2000s, peaking from the late 1980s to middle 1990s, in the heart of the +PDO era.

- The decline in the NAO during the early/mid 2000s was followed by a flip to -PDO during the mid/late 2000s. The late 2000s and early 2010s were largely -PDO/-NAO.

- The most recent example being the flip to +NAO, starting in winter 2011/12 (to present), was followed by the flip to +PDO a year later. Winter 2014/15 had one of the most prolific +NAOs ever recorded for DJF.
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Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#1198
Jesse

Posted 20 August 2017 - 09:35 AM

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Pretty much end to end torching on the 12z.


Figured we'd pay for July being merely slightly above average.

#1199
Phil

Posted 20 August 2017 - 09:44 AM

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See how the cold season NAO trend/tendency appears to lead the PDO tendency by 2-5 years, for the most part. Amplitude is another story, though.

naots2_1.gif?itok=akuJE6iD
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#1200
Jesse

Posted 20 August 2017 - 04:57 PM

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Nice day! (in Madras)