November 2017 Observations and Discussion

[Andrew NE]

It's hard to say right now, but I'm leaning towards a 48-51 day cycle.  I need to see how the pattern evolves right around the 24th/25th and see if it resembles the Oct 6th/7th pattern.

 

Fair enough, thanks.  This LRC stuff takes a lot of patience. haha. It is so nice once the first cycle is set going forward as you know!

[Tom]

Fair enough, thanks.  This LRC stuff takes a lot of patience. haha. It is so nice once the first cycle is set going forward as you know!

Indeed, but that early December storm really looks very similar to the Oct 9th-11th set up.  FWIW, 00z EPS has some nice wintry hits for the Plains.  You guys are probably sick of hearing it, but we just need patience in this pattern.  I know its been boring out that way but this year's pattern is much much different and holds some very encouraging signs to have CO Low's this season and we are on the verge of seeing that before the end of the month.  I mean, you guys just experienced one yesterday!

[NEJeremy]

GFS was closer last night with the thermal profiles as it got nowhere near the 32 degrees the NAM was showing. Just had rain here. Haven’t checked my rain gauge yet for total. A cooler windy day today with normal highs and then the next week looks above normal for the most part and dry again. Wonder how much further things will keep getting pushed back before the amazing switch happens that the models keep showing always in week 2 or 3? Short, active 45 day cycle? Pffft, looks to be closer to 60 at this point!

[Andrew NE]

Indeed, but that early December storm really looks very similar to the Oct 9th-11th set up.  FWIW, 00z EPS has some nice wintry hits for the Plains.  You guys are probably sick of hearing it, but we just need patience in this pattern.  I know its been boring out that way but this year's pattern is much much different and holds some very encouraging signs to have CO Low's this season and we are on the verge of seeing that before the end of the month.  I mean, you guys just experienced one yesterday!

Yea I have been seeing signs of it, honestly what I have mapped out so far of the LRC we have a chance at 5-6 shots of events per cycle, now obviously they wont all be monsters, but with a potential shorter cycle length they could be more frequent.  

[Tom]

Yea I have been seeing signs of it, honestly what I have mapped out so far of the LRC we have a chance at 5-6 shots of events per cycle, now obviously they wont all be monsters, but with a potential shorter cycle length they could be more frequent.  

Yup, and the blocking is suggested to be bountiful this season which all the more argues for phased storms as they eject out of the Rockies.  It's been a fun pattern out here all Autumn long and we have been lucky with numerous storms.  Could this be the "share the wealth" year???  Hope so!

[St Paul Storm]

Nice day here. Decided to fire up the lawn mover one last time to mulch leaves. Sunny and low 30s today.

[Tom]

Nice day here. Decided to fire up the lawn mover one last time to mulch leaves. Sunny and low 30s today.

It’s about as opposite as it can get over here today. Nastiest day of the Autumn I’d say. I’m thinking of doing the same on Sunday. Sunny skies and highs in the mid 30’s. Leaf pick up is on Mon so it makes sense.

[Hawkeye]

I'll be mowing for the last time either Monday or Friday.  Monday should be in the low to mid 50s, while last night's euro has us reaching 63 on Friday.  I think 53 has been our high this month.

 

The oak trees around here still don't want to drop their leaves.  I think I'd typically be done filling all the bags I need by now, but this year I haven't even started, yet.  At least it appears I won't have to worry about any snow events ruining my leaf collection/plant-covering through the rest of the month.

[Tom]

12z GEFS trending towards a big storm potential to close out the month..."Here...Cutter, Cutter, Cutter"

 

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

There's one tree just outside my window which is refusing to drop its leaves. They're an ugly orange-brown, as they have been for a month, but it's just being stubborn. Maybe the wind today will help it out a bit. 

 

47.7* on my balcony and windy right now.

[Money]

Nice cutter developing on the 12z euro at the end of the run

[St Paul Storm]

12z GEFS trending towards a big storm potential to close out the month..."Here...Cutter, Cutter, Cutter"

 

 

 

Operational run has been showing this as well the last few runs, but timing is a few days later.

[OKwx2k4]

Whenever today's weather cycles back around it will be amazing here. Great 30mph gusting winds blasting drizzle all day and temps are going to crash under a clearing sky here in little awhile. Should make for a memorable January day down the road for sure.

[Thunder98]

It's amazing how much cold and cloudier it is in these Midwest cities compared to 1st half of November 2016.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Niko]

D**n ..that's a major flood for this page...

[Niko]

Currently raining and temp holding @ 41F. Been raining all day. Did not check amounts, but definitely more than an 1" has fallen.

[Niko]

Currently rain/snow mix going to all snow very soon. An inch expected. Winds will also pick-up. Temps are rapidly dropping. Holding at 35F right now and dropping steadily.

[Niko]

All snow now..temp @ 34F.

[Tom]

12z Euro Control anyone???  Enjoy any warmth you are lucky to get over the next 7-10 days bc Winter is hear to stay once this month is Finito.

 

 

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

12z Euro Control anyone???  Enjoy any warmth you are lucky to get over the next 7-10 days bc Winter is hear to stay once this month is Finito.

EPS and GEFS are still pretty slap happy at the idea of a storm system as we change months. Naturally, that's the one time I DON'T want it to happen as I will be driving out to Cedar Rapids and Dubuque around that timeframe.

[Money]

Good signs on the 0z gfs for wintry weather closing out the month

[OKwx2k4]

Good Euro run there. Trends all say colder and colder. Neg EPO looks like it's not going to let up anytime soon. Been short of high temp forecasts more over the last 3 months than I've ever seen. That's a win right there. I love this pattern and yesterday evening into today really felt like Autumn ended for good. My trees were all either 80% Brown or completely leafless already before this morning and I'd say that number is now a lot closer to 90% leafless with spots of yellow here and there. I guess every season I have a certain day I keep in mind to say the season really changed. I guess today was it. I'm ready for winter now.

[Craig-OmahaWX]

12z Euro Control anyone???  Enjoy any warmth you are lucky to get over the next 7-10 days bc Winter is hear to stay once this month is Finito.

What the hell! Thats insane lol. Good chance it won't go that far south this early so it would mean that it would be further north over us at first. The CMC and GFS is really hinting hard at a colorado low storm at the end of the period, not to mention the euro at 12z today.

[jaster220]

EPS and GEFS are still pretty slap happy at the idea of a storm system as we change months. Naturally, that's the one time I DON'T want it to happen as I will be driving out to Cedar Rapids and Dubuque around that timeframe.

Get with the program..you can't order up your snow on demand. Lol. You either deal with it, or you gotta change your plans. You're comical in more ways than one!

[jaster220]

What the hell! Thats insane lol. Good chance it won't go that far south this early so it would mean that it would be further north over us at first. The CMC and GFS is really hinting hard at a colorado low storm at the end of the period, not to mention the euro at 12z today.

Actually, as we just witnessed again yesterday, south and/or weaker is a safer bet in this regime. This looks to be a Panhandle system, not the W-E slider, so the swath shown seems a tad north to me.

[jaster220]

12z Euro Control anyone???  Enjoy any warmth you are lucky to get over the next 7-10 days bc Winter is hear to stay once this month is Finito.

I've been waiting for models to show an actual swath of snow instead of those other maps you post that go out a month but look more like climo averaged snow maps, never showing swathes of snow SW of the GL's or anywhere really. Those others are just same gradient you see every year it seems.

[Tom]

I've been waiting for models to show an actual swath of snow instead of those other maps you post that go out a month but look more like climo averaged snow maps, never showing swathes of snow SW of the GL's or anywhere really. Those others are just same gradient you see every year it seems.

Those ensemble maps just give a broad based idea of what the model is suggesting and if they are painting a lot of snow coverage it generally means its going to get cold.  If I think what's going to happen, we should see a couple of cutters in the Week 2 period.

[jaster220]

Talk about winter at Thanksgiving! I noticed Traverse's record when looking over APX's links.

 

Greatest Snow Depth: 19 inches (1903)

 

Now that's a mid-winter feel right there. I'd estimate that we weren't far behind that number in '95

[Tom]

OMG, 1F low in Rhinelander, WI this morning...Novem-brrrr!!!!

[Niko]

Clouds breaking up...sun peaking through..temps @ 36F.

[westMJim]

Getting light snow here now. Have a covering on the roofs and car tops. The temperature here is now at 32°

[westMJim]

Talk about winter at Thanksgiving! I noticed Traverse's record when looking over APX's links.

 

Greatest Snow Depth: 19 inches (1903)

 

Now that's a mid-winter feel right there. I'd estimate that we weren't far behind that number in '95

In going back to 2000. At Grand Rapids the most snow on the ground at Grand Rapids for Thanksgiving morning was 8" in 2004. Thanksgiving was on the 25th that year. In 2000 when Thanksgiving was on the 23rd Grand Rapids had 6" on the ground and the high low that year was 29/18° Not sue what TC had on the ground in 1995 but Alpena had 4" and the Sault had 6" and here in Grand Rapids there was no snow on the ground in 1995.

[Minny_Weather]

The SW ridge can die in a hole.

 

27.1* and very frosty outside at 8am. Almost looked like the cars and roofs were snow covered!

 

GEFS and EPS still rather interesting. Potential storm system around the 30th/1st timeframe is something to watch.

[westMJim]

I will toss this site up from time to time over the winter months but here is a site that has the web cams from MDOT

 

https://mdotnetpublic.state.mi.us/drive/

[Thunder98]

I will toss this site up from time to time over the winter months but here is a site that has the web cams from MDOT

 

https://mdotnetpublic.state.mi.us/drive/

Also traffic cameras from the rest of the Midwest/Plains States.

 

https://travelmidwest.com/lmiga/cameraReport.jsp?location=GATEWAY

[jaster220]

In going back to 2000. At Grand Rapids the most snow on the ground at Grand Rapids for Thanksgiving morning was 8" in 2004. Thanksgiving was on the 25th that year. In 2000 when Thanksgiving was on the 23rd Grand Rapids had 6" on the ground and the high low that year was 29/18° Not sue what TC had on the ground in 1995 but Alpena had 4" and the Sault had 6" and here in Grand Rapids there was no snow on the ground in 1995.

TC's official site back in '95 was Cherry Capital airport down in the valley close to the water. In '95 they only had 4" depth there. My place was on the high ground in the forest SE. Kalkaska, down wind a bit from mby would give a better indication and there the depth was up to 16", so my memory was not too far off.

[Minny_Weather]

Also traffic cameras from the rest of the Midwest/Plains States.

 

https://travelmidwest.com/lmiga/cameraReport.jsp?location=GATEWAY

http://lincolnne.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapTour/index.html?appid=69dc0494e13a49e99946bb0d21893afa

 

Here's all the Lincoln cameras if you enjoy seeing brown grass.

[jaster220]

On and off mood flakes have left a dusting on my deck. Some looks more like graupel pellets tbh.

[Niko]

On and off snowshowers. Temps @ 34F. Light dusting.

[Niko]

Quiet week shaping up w milder weather briefly, then, turning colder by midweek.