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November 2017 PNW Discussion Thread

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#1
stuffradio

Posted 31 October 2017 - 07:06 AM

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Will this be a month of carrots and warning shots, or will we start to see the real deal? Time will tell!



#2
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 31 October 2017 - 11:27 AM

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I'm thinking major snowstorm for all of us on Black Friday or so.  Huge deformation bands from Brookings to BC, 971 MB low sits of the coast of Crescent City/Eureka associated with an AR.


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#3
Brian_in_Leavenworth

Posted 31 October 2017 - 01:25 PM

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Got this from a tweet by a met named Michael Clark, from BAMWX.com  This was from the Euro weeklies run a couple of days ago for November.

 

Attached File  DNemEweX4AI83zo.jpg   135.86KB   4 downloads

 



#4
snow_wizard

Posted 31 October 2017 - 06:52 PM

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I'm going to guess there will be a major trough late in the month which will really start to make things interesting.  I'm just going by the timing we are currently seeing...late Sept, mid Oct, early Nov, ...

 

The early month trough should bring some noticeably chilly weather and a little bit of lowland snow in some places.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 2

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 3

 

 


#5
snow_wizard

Posted 31 October 2017 - 09:05 PM

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The WRF is considerably more agressive at bringing in cold air Thurday night and Friday than the 12z.  925s drop to -4 at BLI and -2 for SEA.  Some lowland snow being shown in places.  It is showing some really chilly low temps coming up.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 2

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 3

 

 


#6
VancouverIslandSouth

Posted 31 October 2017 - 09:20 PM

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Faster timing, less moisture, and further south was a big theme of the models last winter for these sort of setups. Seems like the biases are playing out again. Temperatures will be plenty cold for snow, but now moisture that was initially predicted to hang around into Friday afternoon is finished early Thursday night.


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#7
stuffradio

Posted 31 October 2017 - 09:39 PM

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00Z operational appears to be an outlier warm, at least for some of the times in the future.



#8
DJ Droppin

Posted 31 October 2017 - 09:43 PM

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1f47b.png 1f480.png 1f9df_200d_2640.png‍♀ 1f9db_200d_2642.png‍♂ 1f383.png 1f47b.png
Happy Halloween

 

10/31/17 10:43 PM 00z WRF

 

7:00 AM Sunday is looking chilly. Pretty good easterly flow and the low is quite a bit further south now down near Yachats. If only it were 2-3 weeks from now. This is a great pattern for a snow storm for PDX metro.

 

slp.111.0000.gif


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#9
Deweydog

Posted 31 October 2017 - 09:49 PM

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1f47b.png1f480.png1f9df_200d_2640.png‍♀ 1f9db_200d_2642.png‍♂ 1f383.png1f47b.png
Happy Halloween

10/31/17 10:43 PM 00z WRF


7:00 AM Sunday is looking chilly. Pretty good easterly flow and the low is quite a bit further south now down near Yachats. If only it were 2-3 weeks from now. This is a great pattern for a snow storm for PDX metro.

slp.111.0000.gif


Looks familiar.

#lastwinter
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#10
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 31 October 2017 - 09:54 PM

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1f47b.png1f480.png1f9df_200d_2640.png‍♀ 1f9db_200d_2642.png‍♂ 1f383.png1f47b.png
Happy Halloween

 

10/31/17 10:43 PM 00z WRF

 

7:00 AM Sunday is looking chilly. Pretty good easterly flow and the low is quite a bit further south now down near Yachats. If only it were 2-3 weeks from now. This is a great pattern for a snow storm for PDX metro.

 

slp.111.0000.gif

 

 

Let's have one sit off the coast like that and undergo bomb cyclogenesis. Put us in a nice and deep deformation band.



#11
DJ Droppin

Posted 31 October 2017 - 09:56 PM

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Looks familiar.

#lastwinter

Yeah it sure does. Lows trending further south. Hmmm, 12km Sounding over PDX for Sunday morning shows gusty east winds and temps near freezing. Even colder Monday morning. Overdoing CAA?

 

kpdx.111.0000.snd.gif

 

 

kpdx.135.0000.snd.gif


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#12
DJ Droppin

Posted 31 October 2017 - 09:57 PM

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Let's have one sit off the coast like that and undergo bomb cyclogenesis. Put us in a nice and deep deformation band.

Explosive snowfall rates 2-4" per hour!



#13
TT-SEA

Posted 31 October 2017 - 09:58 PM

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Faster timing, less moisture, and further south was a big theme of the models last winter for these sort of setups. Seems like the biases are playing out again. Temperatures will be plenty cold for snow, but now moisture that was initially predicted to hang around into Friday afternoon is finished early Thursday night.

 

I was thinking about that as well... last winter everything seemed to trend south and I was wondering if that theme was going to show up again this weekend.



#14
DJ Droppin

Posted 31 October 2017 - 10:04 PM

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This certainly helps matter! -PNA, -EPO absolutely tanking now into early November

 

4indices.png



#15
Phil

Posted 31 October 2017 - 10:07 PM

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Strongest +IOD/+SIOD I've ever seen. Check out those SH SSTAs as well..weakened U-winds for sure.

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#16
DJ Droppin

Posted 31 October 2017 - 10:22 PM

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Strongest +IOD/+SIOD I've ever seen. Check out those SH SSTAs as well..weakened U-winds for sure.

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

What does this mean or favor to occur?



#17
snow_wizard

Posted 31 October 2017 - 10:24 PM

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Strongest +IOD/+SIOD I've ever seen. Check out those SH SSTAs as well..weakened U-winds for sure.

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

Could that be the culprit for this acting like a +QBO?


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 2

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 3

 

 


#18
snow_wizard

Posted 31 October 2017 - 10:27 PM

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This certainly helps matter! -PNA, -EPO absolutely tanking now into early November

 

4indices.png

 

No doubt that equates to cold.  A minus PNA in combination with any of the following indices being minus is cold for us...AO, NAO, EPO.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 2

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 3

 

 


#19
DJ Droppin

Posted 31 October 2017 - 10:27 PM

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00z ECMWF brings the low Sunday into around Astoria, Seaside. Too warm for snow in PDX metro, but might be cold enough central Gorge, more likely eastern Gorge. It's okay, it will trend further south with tomorrow's runs. 1f913.png



#20
TT-SEA

Posted 31 October 2017 - 10:31 PM

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00z ECMWF brings the low Sunday into around Astoria, Seaside. Too warm for snow in PDX metro, but might be cold enough central Gorge, more likely eastern Gorge. It's okay, it will trend further south with tomorrow's runs. 1f913.png

 

I would almost bet on it. 



#21
Phil

Posted 31 October 2017 - 10:51 PM

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Could that be the culprit for this acting like a +QBO?


Could very well be, at least relative to early-season wavetrain climatology. If this holds into midwinter, though..who knows what will happen. The IO/ENSO background states are completely misaligned right now. Haven't seen this conjunction at all since that stretch in the early 1950s..only now we have an expanded warm pool in the WPAC playing on the Hadley Cell there. #HardestForecastEver
Personal Weather Station, Live Stream on Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...BETHE62#history

Cold season 2017/18:
Snowfall: 0"
Largest snowfall: 0"
Number of winter events: 0
Coldest High 67*F
Coldest low: 44*F
Highest sustained wind: 17mph
Highest wind gust: 26mph

#22
DJ Droppin

Posted 31 October 2017 - 10:55 PM

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If the WRF/GFS, CMC don't back off and the ECMWF joins in, by Friday Night/Saturday morning we'll have to begin tracking the progress of cold air pushing south through British Columbia by monitoring the northerly gradients YKA-OMK southward down the Okanagan Valley and OMK-PDT through the Columbia Basin. Nah, I'm not giddy in the slightest.



#23
snow_wizard

Posted 31 October 2017 - 11:34 PM

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SEA actually has a shot at their earliest low below 28 ever recorded if Sunday night pans out as cold as the WRF is showing.  Could be close.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2017-18 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Coldest Low = 32

Lows 32 or below = 2

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows Below 20 = 0

Highs 40 or below = 3

 

 


#24
DJ Droppin

Posted 01 November 2017 - 12:32 AM

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00z EPS has persistent high pressure/blocking over the North Pacific around the Aleutians, Western Alaska. It wouldn't take much to see a cold pattern setup.



#25
G-Sax

Posted 01 November 2017 - 12:37 AM

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Latest Cliff Mass update has a pretty deceiving headline... http://cliffmass.blo..._medium=twitter



#26
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 November 2017 - 02:58 AM

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SEA actually has a shot at their earliest low below 28 ever recorded if Sunday night pans out as cold as the WRF is showing.  Could be close.

 

I would be stunned,.


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#27
AlpineExperience

Posted 01 November 2017 - 04:57 AM

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High resolution WRF shows snow over east king county.

Attached Files


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#28
WSmet

Posted 01 November 2017 - 06:06 AM

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High resolution WRF shows snow over east king county.

Hmm, that'd be something, stark change from the ECMWF that was showing snow over N. Interior and Hood Canal 



#29
El nina

Posted 01 November 2017 - 06:22 AM

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00z ECMWF brings the low Sunday into around Astoria, Seaside. Too warm for snow in PDX metro, but might be cold enough central Gorge, more likely eastern Gorge. It's okay, it will trend further south with tomorrow's runs. 1f913.png


Don't forget about the last minute jog north.

#30
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 November 2017 - 06:23 AM

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Had a low of 37 this morning. Up to 45 now with clouds. 


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#31
Timmy

Posted 01 November 2017 - 06:38 AM

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06z brings 2-6” of snow here. Pretty bullish although I think we see a little. And that is based off the low res tropical tidbits map. It shows much more than previous runs.

#32
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 November 2017 - 07:29 AM

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06z brings 2-6” of snow here. Pretty bullish although I think we see a little. And that is based off the low res tropical tidbits map. It shows much more than previous runs.

 

That would seem to be a bit overdone. I could see you getting some flakes and maybe a dusting Sunday morning. If you can take advantage of that offshore flow and cold air damming. Down here I think snow stays above 2000', just a little early in the year. 


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#33
Timmy

Posted 01 November 2017 - 07:33 AM

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That would seem to be a bit overdone. I could see you getting some flakes and maybe a dusting Sunday morning. If you can take advantage of that offshore flow and cold air damming. Down here I think snow stays above 2000', just a little early in the year.

I’m directly West of the gorge And we usually do good in offshore flow set up’s. But I do think 2 to 6 inches is probably over done.

#34
crf450ish

Posted 01 November 2017 - 07:36 AM

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There’s an area just north of my house that cuts directly through the Huckleberry mountain range. A road called Cedonia-Addy RD. I’m willing to bet that area sees significant snowfall. #Upslope




Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
424 AM PDT Wed Nov 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Clear skies tonight will allow temperatures to fall into the 20s
early Tuesday morning. A much cooler, wet and unsettled weather
pattern will develop Wednesday night and will continue through
the weekend bringing heavy snow to the mountains and the northern
valleys Wednesday night through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today: A strong west-northwest flow is currently arching over the
region. The Columbia Basin will remain fairly dry for the day. A
cold front traveling the flow through Western MT will press
moisture into the ID Panhandle and Northeastern WA. This is
expected to bring some snow showers up to an inch to this area.
THese areas include Sandpoint and north of the city. Main impacts
will be in the Central Idaho Mountains above 4000ft. Moisture
overshooting the Cascades is expected to bring light snow showers
to that region. Throughout the day, the ridge will slowly flatten
and begin to bring in cooler air.

...WINTER STORM WITH HEAVY SNOW TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tonight through Thursday: As the flow shifts to more westerly,
snow levels will drop overnight as colder air is pumped into the
region and high impact snow event is expected for northeast WA
and into the central to northern Idaho Panhandle. A low will also
be pushing South along the Washington coast creating some
instability and increasing the moisture in the region. The region
will see precip begin Wednesday night under westerly flow. Models
have backed off on how far south the cold air push will be. This
has kept the snow to mainly the Northern portions of Washington.
The Idaho Panhandle and Cascades can continue to see snow during
this period.

* Timing: Snow is expected to begin in the valleys of the Methow
Valley, Okanogan Highlands, Northeast Mtns and Northern
Panhandle by late Wednesday or Thursday morning. Mountain passes
will also see snow beginning at this time. We should then see
rain changing over to snow for the Okanogan Valley, Waterville
Plateau, northern basin and Spokane/Coeur d`Alene corridor as
early as Friday morning (at least for the higher benches above
2,000 feet). These areas further south along the Highway 2
corridor will likely have a harder time accumulating due to
warmer road temperatures.

* Snow Amounts: Highest snow accumulations are expected across the
northern mountains and valleys to the Idaho Panhandle. The
mountains will see the potential for a foot to near 2 feet
possible in the Northern Panhandle. Highest accumulations in the
valleys will be in the Okanogan Highlands to the Northern
Panhandle with 6-12 inches possible above 2,500 feet and 2-6
inches at lower elevations of the Northeast Mountains.

* Impacts: Confidence is high enough for heavy snow from the
Okanogan Highlands to the Northern Panhandle for a Winter Storm
Watch. We will cover the period when the heaviest snow is
expected, which will be from early Thursday morning through
Friday morning. Expect roads to become snow covered with
treacherous travel likely during this period. Winter highlights
may also be needed in the east slopes of the northern Cascades,
Central Panhandle Mountains and lower elevations surrounding
these mountain zones as the event nears. /JDC

Friday through Tuesday...Models have trended much drier for the
Friday and Saturday period. The upper trough axis moves inland
with the mid level frontal boundary moving south and east of the
area. There will still be instability showers to deal with
especially in the mountains, but additional accumulations should
be light. A cooler air mass will be brought into the area courtesy
of the north-northeast winds. Lows will drop into the 20s...with
teens possible in the northern valleys with expected fresh snow
cover. Another wave moves in out of the north Saturday night into
Sunday. The best lift will pass south and west of the area as the
mid level wave tracks from off the WA/OR coast southeast into
Oregon. Still...light precipitation...mainly as snow...is possible
especially along the East Slopes of the Cascades and near the
Oregon border. Monday looks like a dry day as a short wave ridge
moves over the area except for possibly a few lingering snow
showers over the Blue Mountains, Camas Prairie, and Central
Panhandle Mountains. On Tuesday the next upper low drops down out
of the north but takes a more westward route...well off the coast
near 140W. This results in the flow becoming southwesterly over
the area bringing a warming trend towards normal temperatures for
the middle of next week. The best chances for precipitation with
this system should hold off until Wednesday. JW
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#35
MR.SNOWMIZER

Posted 01 November 2017 - 07:37 AM

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This storm is going to pack a punch at some places for sure. 8-12 inches forecasted near republic and that is alot at one time for there even in the dead of winter. Headed to my property tomorrow to ride it out.


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#36
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 November 2017 - 07:39 AM

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This storm is going to pack a punch at some places for sure. 8-12 inches forecasted near republic and that is alot at one time for there even in the dead of winter. Headed to my property tomorrow to ride it out.

 

That's awesome! Have fun and stay safe!


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#37
crf450ish

Posted 01 November 2017 - 07:39 AM

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This storm is going to pack a punch at some places for sure. 8-12 inches forecasted near republic and that is alot at one time for there even in the dead of winter. Headed to my property tomorrow to ride it out.


Hell yeah! Take lots of pics and brag it up on here!

#38
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 November 2017 - 07:39 AM

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Faster timing, less moisture, and further south was a big theme of the models last winter for these sort of setups. Seems like the biases are playing out again. Temperatures will be plenty cold for snow, but now moisture that was initially predicted to hang around into Friday afternoon is finished early Thursday night.

Yea the 6z shows less than 0.1” of rain for Victoria in the next week. Models have gutted the first system and the weekend system is continuing to drift south

#39
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 November 2017 - 07:55 AM

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12z GFS shows varying amounts of snow from Everett to Olympia and up in Whatcom. Still not buying it for the greater Puget Sound I-5 corridor.

 

gfs_asnow_nwus_17.png


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#40
Chris

Posted 01 November 2017 - 07:55 AM

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06z brings 2-6” of snow here. Pretty bullish although I think we see a little. And that is based off the low res tropical tidbits map. It shows much more than previous runs.

 

My personal opinion is that the NAM 3km did best with snowfall totals at my location last winter.  I didn't have access to the Euro numbers.



#41
TT-SEA

Posted 01 November 2017 - 08:02 AM

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12z GFS shows varying amounts of snow from Everett to Olympia and up in Whatcom. Still not buying it for the greater Puget Sound I-5 corridor.

 

 

 

12Z GFS did trend north with the system on Saturday night and Sunday.



#42
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 November 2017 - 08:08 AM

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12z throws an interesting wrinkle for Sunday night. The airmass behind the departing low would be cold enough for snow here...Would just become a matter of available moisture at that point...


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#43
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 November 2017 - 08:19 AM

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12Z GFS did trend north with the system on Saturday night and Sunday.

 

Yeah I noticed that too. If there was going to be any time the lowlands see snow this weekend it would be with that system but I just don't see the 850s and surface temps being cold enough to support it.

 

Surface temps Saturday night/Sunday morning are in the mid-30s most places and 850s look to be around -3 to -6c during that time.

 

Unless Fraser outflow over-performs in pulling cold air into Western WA I have a feeling it will be nothing but cold, chunky rain most places outside of Whatcom and higher elevations (like you).



#44
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 November 2017 - 09:27 AM

hawkstwelve

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12z WRF does show snow in the SW interior, mainly with the Saturday night system.

 

ww_snow72.108.0000.gif



#45
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 November 2017 - 09:38 AM

hawkstwelve

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12z WRF also shows Fraser outflow cranking Thursday night through roughly Saturday morning.

 

If we can get enough of that filtered down through Western WA, and in turn lower the dewpoints, there may be a better chance for snow if precip is heavy enough Saturday night/Sunday morning.

 

ww_wgsfc.51.0000.gif


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#46
AlpineExperience

Posted 01 November 2017 - 09:39 AM

AlpineExperience

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12z WRF does show snow in the SW interior, mainly with the Saturday night system.

ww_snow72.108.0000.gif


Definitely overdone for SW interior. Nice to see though

#47
Jesse

Posted 01 November 2017 - 09:50 AM

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Haven’t been tracking things the last couple days. The upcoming trough sure has been watered down.

#48
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 November 2017 - 09:55 AM

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Haven’t been tracking things the last couple days. The upcoming trough sure has been watered down.

 

22894387_632903445624_601272870269088554


Snowfall

2016-17: 47.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

 

 


#49
Jesse

Posted 01 November 2017 - 09:58 AM

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22894387_632903445624_601272870269088554


Artic blast!

#50
BLI snowman

Posted 01 November 2017 - 09:59 AM

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Haven’t been tracking things the last couple days. The upcoming trough sure has been watered down.

 

Not really. And our temps look like they will be more impressive here thanks to the surface lows.