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May 2018 Observations and Discussion

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#51
CentralNebWeather

Posted 01 May 2018 - 04:54 AM

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I have to give props to my local ABC Meteorologist, not that I am happy about it.   He called it on severe weather missing our area to the west and north last night and to the southeast today.  Well this crapped out from 80-100% chances just a few days ago.  Now it is 50 degrees with low clouds and a cool north wind.  Boring.  Didn't even get a drop of rain.  



#52
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 May 2018 - 05:39 AM

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It's actually encouraging that the sun is out right now, even if there's thin clouds too. That may give us enough heating to have development over here.

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#53
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 May 2018 - 05:57 AM

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So models are pretty consistent with a linear storm mode thru here tonight. Linear systems are fun. Not as fun as supercells, but still fun. And discrete supercells can't be ruled out. SRH values of ~250 m2 s-2 at 0-1km would suggest embedded rotation within said line as well. 41kt shear isn't too shabby either.

 

Shame it's at night. Bet this thing will have a killer shelf cloud.

 

If we go by HRRR's word, though, we'll be looking at a hail only threat here. BOOOOOOOOOOO. Let's go WRF models.


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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#54
Niko

Posted 01 May 2018 - 06:46 AM

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Another crazy temp difference from my high and low yesterday (79/29).

 

Currently, sunny and warm w temp @ 70. Making a run for 80F or betta. :D



#55
westMJim

Posted 01 May 2018 - 08:17 AM

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Today will be the first 80° of 2018 here in Grand Rapids. The last time it was 80 or better was back on October 9th 2017.  Over the years the mean first 80° at Grand Rapids is April 30th so it is just about the average time of the first 80° day.


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#56
CentralNebWeather

Posted 01 May 2018 - 08:26 AM

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I think North Central/Northeast Kansas, Southeast Nebraska are prime areas for severe weather.  My area is north of the front so my chances appear to be 0%.  This is a fairly typical setup, it seems fronts usually make it just past the Tri-Cities of Central Nebraska and then tend to stall out.  Seen this many times over the years.



#57
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 May 2018 - 08:32 AM

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I'm sketched out by the thick clouds we have now. South wind may help us rise a couple degrees but I'm worried about us being able to break the cap.

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#58
Niko

Posted 01 May 2018 - 08:48 AM

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Gorgeous, sunny warm day w temps in the 70s. :)



#59
Tom

Posted 01 May 2018 - 09:04 AM

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Already hit 80F and making a run into the mid 80’s. The air has that dry AZ heat feel to it which is making my skin  darn dry. Everything is pretty dusty outside. Can’t wait for the rain tomorrow to wash this out.


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#60
St Paul Storm

Posted 01 May 2018 - 09:33 AM

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70F here under hazy skies. But it’s only 40 at Int’l Falls. Trees are in full bloom. They all popped within the last day or two. It’s no coincidence that I’ve sneezed a few times the last few days.

#61
Tom

Posted 01 May 2018 - 10:14 AM

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Tornado Watches likely to be hoisted for our E NE members and down into the N/C KS region...

 

DcIXECLU0AARxOT.jpg



#62
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 May 2018 - 10:17 AM

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Not sure what the motivation behind a MDT risk for N/C KS was. If they wanted to add a 15% tornado risk there then it'd be understandable, but I don't get the 45% hail risk. If anything hail risk there would be less than here cuz it's gonna be more isolated down there.

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#63
jaster220

Posted 01 May 2018 - 11:10 AM

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Hit 81F in Marshall but fell back now. Not sure GRR's 85F in my grid is gonna happen. Which, btw is fine by me. Don't need to go extreme torch on d1 of the month following historic chill


Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 24.2 Jan: 14.5 Feb: 19.7 Mar: 4.7 Apr: 5.2 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-what a stretch it's been!!

 

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#64
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 May 2018 - 11:28 AM

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Ahhhh yes this sunlight is just what the doctor ordered. Temps rising quickly. May actually see development closer to here as the cap should erode soon. 81.3*F. Dew point 62*F.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#65
FarmerRick

Posted 01 May 2018 - 11:36 AM

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Still very overcast in Omaha.

 

Looks a bit dicey for the St. Joe area tomorrow.

day2otlk_1730.gif?1525203576717



#66
gabel23

Posted 01 May 2018 - 11:52 AM

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Tornado watched just got put out. Also, a storm in Kansas just popped out of no where and became severe rather quickly. Let the night begin. 



#67
FarmerRick

Posted 01 May 2018 - 12:03 PM

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Some just popped up from seward to columbus too.



#68
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 May 2018 - 12:19 PM

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Should be a fun night. HRRR looks rather juicy for some discrete supercell action. That was also a rather strongly worded tornado watch from an SPC that has been rather nonchalant in its outlooks. Let's do this.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#69
CentralNebWeather

Posted 01 May 2018 - 12:31 PM

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Just as I predicted, Tornado Watch one county to my east.  Not that I want tornadoes for anyone, but now will get to watch the thunderheads billow up just to my east and southeast.  Has happened before.



#70
Illinois_WX

Posted 01 May 2018 - 01:40 PM

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Gabel23 be careful out there man, that is some strong rotation right by your place.
  • gabel23 and LNK_Weather like this

LINCOLN NEBRASKA SNOW TOTALS:

 

 

13-14 : 0"

14-15: 0"

15-16" : 0"

16-17 : 0"

17-18 : Probably 10", so in other words, 0" ​ 5.5"

 

 

# of times it was too warm and ended up being 33 and rain during these years : 20

# of times the storm essentially turned into dust: 25

# of times the storm looked at Nebraska and was like "yeah, good joke" , then ran to Chicago: 50


#71
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 May 2018 - 01:40 PM

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Every form of interesting weather goes around Lincoln part 245864235987432 is about to go into effect.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#72
gabel23

Posted 01 May 2018 - 01:55 PM

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Gabel23 be careful out there man, that is some strong rotation right by your place.


Waiting patiently to see my next move, might not need to move much to see some action. Earlier had quarter sized hail and got .90 of rain in like 15 minutes! Came down like crazy.

#73
CentralNebWeather

Posted 01 May 2018 - 02:01 PM

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I am looking east from my house and can see the massive thunderheads 45 miles away as I have a clear sky.

#74
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 May 2018 - 02:12 PM

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Doesn't look good for here. Same story as always, seems like everything will pass North or South of Lancaster county. The one cell that MIGHT skirt the Northern edge of the county is weakening. My god this always happens.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#75
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 May 2018 - 02:16 PM

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What a nasty hook echo in Northern Saunders County. That may produce a decent tornado.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#76
Tom

Posted 01 May 2018 - 02:58 PM

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Wow, ORD made it to 86F...these storms out in the Plains are getting me a bit excited for some boomers tomorrow...ideal pattern setting up for heavy rain and thunder...

 

nam3km_apcpn_ncus_20.png



#77
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 May 2018 - 03:19 PM

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That's it. I'm done. I quit weather. This always happens. Right in between everything. Radar looked promising but it broke apart just in time. Hate to sound like the severe weather version of Snowlover but this happens to us for any given weather event.

Attached Files


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#78
CentralNebWeather

Posted 01 May 2018 - 03:20 PM

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Doesn't look good for here. Same story as always, seems like everything will pass North or South of Lancaster county. The one cell that MIGHT skirt the Northern edge of the county is weakening. My god this always happens.


Looks like you may be missed to the southeast and northwest. I feel for you. Same thing here the last 2 days. Hoping for better luck next time.
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#79
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 May 2018 - 03:32 PM

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Looks like you may be missed to the southeast and northwest. I feel for you. Same thing here the last 2 days. Hoping for better luck next time.

Problem is the cold front set up a county North of where it was originally supposed to. Hoping that gets made up for tomorrow and the severe wx ends up being North again.


2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#80
Bryan1117

Posted 01 May 2018 - 04:18 PM

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Problem is the cold front set up a county North of where it was originally supposed to. Hoping that gets made up for tomorrow and the severe wx ends up being North again.

 

Don't worry, all of us here in Omaha feel your pain with the weather once again! Heck here on the southwest side of the city, it rained for a whole three minutes... oh well, maybe something can still form this evening or overnight around here, and then onto tomorrow.  


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#81
gabel23

Posted 01 May 2018 - 07:17 PM

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This sums it up guys, that darn platte river played its hand again as the storms stayed just to the south. Was good for me as I'm located just to the south; glad I missed out on the baseball sized hail that fell in Butler County. Received 1.6" of rain. 

Attached Files


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#82
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 May 2018 - 07:36 PM

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This sums it up guys, that darn platte river played its hand again as the storms stayed just to the south. Was good for me as I'm located just to the south; glad I missed out on the baseball sized hail that fell in Butler County. Received 1.6" of rain. 

It's always hilarious how the Platte acts as a forcefield for weather. Nothing is ever able to cross the Platte, heaviest rain/snow must stay North or South.


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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#83
Hawkeye

Posted 01 May 2018 - 08:33 PM

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While I did get a bit of thunder and a few seconds of pea size hail this morning, it was a tiny, very brief cell that only dropped a few hundredths of an inch of rain.  Everything else has gone around me today... mostly north.


season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#84
Money

Posted 01 May 2018 - 09:05 PM

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More whining smh
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#85
NEJeremy

Posted 01 May 2018 - 09:09 PM

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What a day in Kansas! Somewhat disappointing in the end, but plenty of action. First came upon a previously tornado warned storm from the north and had to let the hail core go by us. When we came around the back side of the storm we had very rapidly rotating wall cloud and 2.5"-3.5" hail stones all over the place. The wall cloud fell apart, and we continued on with the storm. We eventually got out ahead of it on I-70 and were filling up with gas with about 40 other chasers north of Ellsworth, when suddenly another large funnel formed to the southwest. This one came 2/3 of the way to the ground before falling apart as well. We continued on with this storm having to go a way ahead of it on I-70 before the next exit that would allow us to go north. We went north maybe a mile or 2 off the interstate with the main action still to our north a bit. However, we suddenly had an area of rotating rain curtains come at us from the southwest, so we jumped north a bit.

Got out of the car, and was basically right under this rapidly rotating area just to our south by about 1/4 mile with the rotating rain curtains. I kept watching for something to come down but didn't see anything. Soon we got blasted by RFD though and I knew this thing was close to producing as it moved to our east.

We started east down some gravel roads to try and keep up with it and could start to see the bowl of the tornado start to form but it wasn't fully condensed. Soon we either hit a T in the road or the roads turned really shitty(can't remember which) and we rapidly started to lose the storm. We could see what looked like a rather large tornado off in the distance to our east but it was hopeless to try and catch the storm with the roads. We have a 4Runner with huge mud tires and 4 wheel drive but still...

This tornado was the wedge of the day as it passed near several small towns in north central KS. We finally got back to a highway and blasted east as a new area of circulation formed and the original tornado occluded. We were able to see the white tornado as it roped out about 10 miles to our north but we flew east towards Bennington KS where the new circulation was going just to the north of town. Here again we had to take gravel roads which were ok. It was almost dark now though and we were able to see one more back lit by lightning funnel before we ran into a dead end road.

At this point we started back west where we ran into pure slop and was sure we'd end up in the ditch. Saw about 3 other chasers that did end up in the ditch after sliding off the road.

Eventually made it back to pavement and now am in Wichita for tomorrow's chase!

Will post some pics, etc later!


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#86
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 May 2018 - 09:41 PM

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More whining smh

Snowlover's gone. You can quit the troll spiel.
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2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#87
Tom

Posted 02 May 2018 - 03:02 AM

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It's a balmy 71F with a noticeable increase in DP's this morning (51F).  You could have fooled me that we time warped into late July/early Aug.  Feels great actually and quite excited to see some storms tonight into tomorrow.



#88
Tom

Posted 02 May 2018 - 03:04 AM

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Wow, what a huge wedge tornado in Culver, KS...

 

https://twitter.com/...493231828447237

 

 


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#89
Tom

Posted 02 May 2018 - 03:22 AM

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00z WRF, which nailed yesterday's event, is showing a nasty bow echo forming out of KS and tracking close to LNK around dinner time today and into the KC region.

 

wrf-arw_ref_frzn_ncus_24.png



#90
Tom

Posted 02 May 2018 - 03:54 AM

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In other news, for those who follow the suns solar activity and the impending solar minimum, today's write up on Spaceweather.com was one of the more interesting ones I've read this year.  It appears the sun is falling asleep much quicker than NASA's models and forecasts.  Is it a surprise NASA is sending a mission to our biggest star this summer??  You can find the link here for this mission to the sun.  The fact that our gov't is taking a big step into studying our sun is of great importance for humanity.  Something is brewing and we will all be effected by the suns activity.


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#91
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 May 2018 - 04:10 AM

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Picked up about 0.2” of rain overnight with the storms. Had a few close lightning strikes but was otherwise just a garden variety storm. The rains really greened up the grass. I don’t use fertilizer because of the lake so I’ll take all the natural green I can get.
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#92
Tom

Posted 02 May 2018 - 04:20 AM

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Looks like the latest HRRR is picking up on a cluster of storms for Chitown between 7:00-8:00 pm...training storms overnight looking likely...

 

hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_14.png



#93
Tom

Posted 02 May 2018 - 04:38 AM

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I'm sure this is a well deserved break from the heat in AZ.  May snow showers in the mountains of N AZ where I love to hike:

 

 

 

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS
MORNING ABOVE 6500 FEET...

* WHAT...Snow occurring. Plan on slippery road conditions.
Additional snow accumulations of up to an inch are expected.

* WHERE...Western Mogollon Rim, Eastern Mogollon Rim and Oak
Creek and Sycamore Canyons.

* WHEN...Until 11 AM today.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Look for reduced visibilities at times.

Additional snow forecast from 3 AM Today to 11 AM Today:

Doney Park 0 to 1 INCHES Flagstaff 0 to 1 INCHES
Forest Lakes 0 to 1 INCHES Heber-Overgaard 0 to 1 INCHES
Williams 1 to 2 INCHES

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#94
LNK_Weather

Posted 02 May 2018 - 05:14 AM

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Oh NOW the cold front moves way South. If it had done that yesterday we'd have had severe weather.

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#95
LNK_Weather

Posted 02 May 2018 - 05:15 AM

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00z WRF, which nailed yesterday's event, is showing a nasty bow echo forming out of KS and tracking close to LNK around dinner time today and into the KC region.

wrf-arw_ref_frzn_ncus_24.png


That thing looks nasty as it develops more and more.

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4 (Last: 6/30/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 7 (Last: 7/25/2018)

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6), 1/22 (1.8), 2/5 (1.6), 2/6 (2.0), 2/9-2/10 (2.8), 2/21-2/22 (1.9), 4/14-4/15 (2.0)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 21.4"               Coldest Low: -19*F (1/1/2018)

 

First flake of the season: 10/31/2017 @ 1:17 PM        Last flake of the season: 4/15/2018 @ 9:22 AM


#96
Niko

Posted 02 May 2018 - 05:59 AM

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Some thunderstorms over the next couple of days here IMBY. Turning cooler by the weekend w plentiful sunshine.



#97
gabel23

Posted 02 May 2018 - 06:11 AM

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It's always hilarious how the Platte acts as a forcefield for weather. Nothing is ever able to cross the Platte, heaviest rain/snow must stay North or South.

Never was a believer but seeing this play out more and more is turning me into one! 



#98
Hawkeye

Posted 02 May 2018 - 06:19 AM

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I'm not liking the way this is going.  First, we basically get nothing yesterday overnight through this morning, so round one was a dud.  That's not a huge deal, though, because tonight was supposed to be the big night.  However, now the models are trying to shift everything south.  The 12z 3k nam has tonight's big storms and heavy rain down in Missouri, for crying out loud.  It had looked good for widespread 2-4 inches of rain around here.  Now, I'm concerned we may not even get 1 inch before the system leaves late Thursday.  The 3k nam has no rain here through midday Thursday.  ZERO!!!!  As dry as it has been, that would be a kick to the nuts.


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season snowfall: 39.5"

 

'16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#99
westMJim

Posted 02 May 2018 - 06:46 AM

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If it does not get below 61 before midnight today. Grand Rapids will set a new warmest minimum temperature for May 5th of course the current warmest minimum of 60° for today is the coldest warmest minimum between April 12th and October 25th



#100
bud2380

Posted 02 May 2018 - 07:20 AM

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Hmmm, where do you suppose the front is located?

 

 

midwest_tmpf.png