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October 2018 Observations and Discussion

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#751
jaster220

Posted 21 October 2018 - 05:36 PM

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The 1st "B" word issued from LOT...

 

Dp-b5nbXgAAez2q.jpg

 

Had to be record early use by LOT, no?? :o


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#752
jaster220

Posted 21 October 2018 - 06:02 PM

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Did you end up seeing and flurries? I saw very few for a few seconds and that was it.

 

If some fell overnight, they were met by the sounds of me snoring. The flakes I saw clearly were mixed in with the heavy squalls yesterday afternoon. 


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#753
OKwx2k4

Posted 21 October 2018 - 09:08 PM

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When yesterday's arctic front came through, the clouds were so low they seemed to be just above the tree line. I mentioned how intense the front was in my later summary post. Well, I just stumbled on this little snippit I had saved regarding that infamous arctic front of Jan '77 and if you look closely, there's some cryptic weather coding that's rarely seen and the author of the article goes on to explain it.

NOAA Map for 28Jan77.jpg

Before I moved north to Traverse region, I lived in Genesee Cnty and in Jan '90 we had a 2-part storm with the coma head a day later than over-running snows. I worked with an older gent in Flint at the time and he said it was the worst whiteout since the Jan '77 arctic front. It hit on a Sat afternoon and I happened to be downtown and you could barely make out the building across the street. As much snow as we've scored around SMI in the last 15 yrs I've no right to complain but I sure miss the intensity of those storms of yesteryear. Maybe this will be the "retro flash back season"?

There was some banter on that other board about which Nino or Nina's are good vs bad. Apparently 1st year Nino's have a better track record for the EC and subsequent can be duds, however it was pointed out that 77-78 was actually a 2nd year Nino. 76-77 was a dry version of 77-78. They both featured a GL's bomb that went north and spun there piling up the LES. Ofc the major difference for non-LES areas was that 78's brought GOMEX moisture up from the deep south and merged it with the bitter system dropping in from MN.


Awesome post buddy. Stuff to think about this year.
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#754
Tom

Posted 22 October 2018 - 02:39 AM

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Happy Monday!  Back on the grind today and the wx to start off the work week will be delightful!  Plenty of sunshine and warmer temps are on the agenda today.  Even though we will make to about average today which is around 60F, I'm sure it will feel like a heat wave after this weekends cold weather.  However, another chilly and tranquil week is on tap until we reach the weekend as the models are beginning to hone in a slow moving system sliding SSE out of Canada into the MW/GL's.

 

DqGbAskWoAAFrmI.jpg

 

 

The storm system that has been on my calendar (26th-28th) is a complex one as there are 2 pieces of energy that will likely produce the majority of the action along the east coast, however, still provide some appreciable moisture around these parts.  Remnants of major Cat 4 Hurricane Willa (might reach Cat 5), will influence the pattern along the southern tier of the U.S and along the E.C.  How many times have we seen tropical systems influence our wx pattern this month??

 

 

 

 


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#755
westMJim

Posted 22 October 2018 - 03:54 AM

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Clear skies here with a temp of 28° here at my house with a lot of frost and ice in the bird bath. At GRR they are reporting a temp of 35 and partly cloudy. 


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#756
gabel23

Posted 22 October 2018 - 04:51 AM

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Just curious. Are both of your avatar pic's from the 09-10 season? Both look like some super deep snow!

Yep, my picture is at my parents house on x-mas day. We had some of the deepest, biggest drifts after the x-mas blizzard that year that I have ever seen in my lifetime! 


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#757
Niko

Posted 22 October 2018 - 05:51 AM

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Currently at 39F w beautiful, sunny skies. After today's 50s, readings remain in the 40s for highs all week and lows in the upper 20s and low 30s.



#758
Niko

Posted 22 October 2018 - 05:52 AM

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If some fell overnight, they were met by the sounds of me snoring. The flakes I saw clearly were mixed in with the heavy squalls yesterday afternoon. 

:lol:



#759
Niko

Posted 22 October 2018 - 06:05 AM

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Nice to have cold air around now, but, lets save this cold for D,J,F pls. MA Nature likes to balance things around. ;)



#760
CentralNebWeather

Posted 22 October 2018 - 01:53 PM

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Leaves falling like crazy here even though the wind is maybe only 20 mph. I would say 1/2 the trees in town are now bare and most of the rest will be gone in the next few days. My trees should be bare by tomorrow. Over 3 weeks earlier than last. Does this mean anything, I don’t know.
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#761
Tom

Posted 22 October 2018 - 02:06 PM

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Leaves falling like crazy here even though the wind is maybe only 20 mph. I would say 1/2 the trees in town are now bare and most of the rest will be gone in the next few days. My trees should be bare by tomorrow. Over 3 weeks earlier than last. Does this mean anything, I don’t know.

After this weekends cold snap, the leaves here are expeditiously changing color and will prob fall off quickly.  Today's high was a delightful 64F with Full sun.  I actually went out on my patio about an hour ago and soaked up some of that sunshine for a little while.  It felt nice to feel the warmth of the sun.


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#762
Tom

Posted 22 October 2018 - 02:14 PM

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A nice test case coming up in the Week 2 range.  GEFS have recently trended warmer in recent runs and suggest a -PNA signal which I thought may happen, however, is it to strong???  Western Canada is likely to get much colder as we head into the opening days of November and a build up of snow is on the way up there.  There are some important clues showing up in the Day 10-15 10mb forecasts off the GEFS and they are supporting a Cross Polar flow pattern.  Nonetheless, a more active SW Flow pattern is prob going to set up early next month so that is a good sign.

 

snow_2018102200_days_11_15.png

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_11.png


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#763
CentralNebWeather

Posted 22 October 2018 - 03:15 PM

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After this weekends cold snap, the leaves here are expeditiously changing color and will prob fall off quickly. Today's high was a delightful 64F with Full sun. I actually went out on my patio about an hour ago and soaked up some of that sunshine for a little while. It felt nice to feel the warmth of the sun.


I actually did the same. Grilled some burgers on the deck, mid 60’s with sunshine, and watched the remaining leaves fall off our backyard tree.
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#764
FAR_Weather

Posted 22 October 2018 - 03:16 PM

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After a ton of waiting, the trees right outside my window, typically one of the first to change, have FINALLY turned yellow. They are among the last to change this year. 65.3*F and very dry out there.


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>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#765
CentralNebWeather

Posted 22 October 2018 - 03:28 PM

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After a ton of waiting, the trees right outside my window, typically one of the first to change, have FINALLY turned yellow. They are among the last to change this year. 65.3*F and very dry out there.


Amazing and strange fall. 2 weeks ago I couldn’t believe nothing had changed color. The cold really sped up the process and shriveled leaves. They will mow up much better imo.
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#766
Tom

Posted 22 October 2018 - 03:31 PM

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After a ton of waiting, the trees right outside my window, typically one of the first to change, have FINALLY turned yellow. They are among the last to change this year. 65.3*F and very dry out there.

How did the Euro Weeklies look today?  Are they out yet or no?  Much appreciated if you can comment on them when they load.



#767
FAR_Weather

Posted 22 October 2018 - 03:46 PM

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How did the Euro Weeklies look today?  Are they out yet or no?  Much appreciated if you can comment on them when they load.

They are out! Very cold as we open up November, precip-wise it isn't great for here but looks pretty good East of here out towards you.


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>1" Snowfalls for Toledo Express Airport in 2019-2020: 11/11 (4.0"), 12/31 (1.0"), 1/17-18 (5.5"), 2/5-6 (3.2"), 2/9 (1.3"), 2/12-13 (1.2"), 2/25-26 (4.1"), 3/22 (1.6"), 4/17 (2.0")

 

Total Snowfall for 2019-2020 @ KTOL: 25.6"            Coldest Low: 8*F (11/13)

 

 

First flake of the season: 11/7/2019 @ 10:06 AM EST

 


#768
jaster220

Posted 22 October 2018 - 04:13 PM

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The storm system that has been on my calendar (26th-28th) is a complex one as there are 2 pieces of energy that will likely produce the majority of the action along the east coast, however, still provide some appreciable moisture around these parts.  Remnants of major Cat 4 Hurricane Willa (might reach Cat 5), will influence the pattern along the southern tier of the U.S and along the E.C.  How many times have we seen tropical systems influence our wx pattern this month??

 

..and right on cue, the AO/NAO combo takes a rare dip negative. I could see this being the hint at how the LRC will progress from The Plains to the coastal systems.

 

Attached File  20181022 nao graph.gif   24.56KB   3 downloads


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#769
Tom

Posted 22 October 2018 - 04:18 PM

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They are out! Very cold as we open up November, precip-wise it isn't great for here but looks pretty good East of here out towards you.

Ya, I think the trough stays anchored across our sub and then we'll see the ridge build more in the east later in November.

 

DqJpDv8X4AA8yfu.jpg



#770
Niko

Posted 22 October 2018 - 05:49 PM

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Clear evening and gorgeous. I was having cocktails at a outside bar/restaurant. Its very mild, but not for long.

 

BTW: Nor'Easter for the EC.



#771
Niko

Posted 22 October 2018 - 06:38 PM

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GOES-East satellite captured this infrared view of what looks like a frozen blanket over the eastern two-thirds of the U.S.

 

(Winter 2013-14)

 

us-icebox-goes-large_0.jpg


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#772
OKwx2k4

Posted 22 October 2018 - 09:02 PM

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..and right on cue, the AO/NAO combo takes a rare dip negative. I could see this being the hint at how the LRC will progress from The Plains to the coastal systems.

20181022 nao graph.gif


Its almost FINALLY a sure thing. Goodness. It's been a long wait. -NAO, you're a sight for sure eyes.
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#773
OKwx2k4

Posted 22 October 2018 - 09:03 PM

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Ya, I think the trough stays anchored across our sub and then we'll see the ridge build more in the east later in November.

DqJpDv8X4AA8yfu.jpg



That is a beautiful temp map. Nice!!
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#774
Tom

Posted 23 October 2018 - 03:21 AM

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Its almost FINALLY a sure thing. Goodness. It's been a long wait. -NAO, you're a sight for sure eyes.

I think this -NAO block has legs into November from what I've been analyzing.  



#775
Thunder98

Posted 23 October 2018 - 05:14 AM

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Cold Snowy Winter for the Eastern half of the US due to El Nino and Solar Minimum?

https://wattsupwitht...alf-of-the-usa/
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#776
Andie

Posted 23 October 2018 - 05:21 AM

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More rain on the way. Thanks Hurricane Willa. :(

45" rain so far and 20" over normal. We have 2 months of potential rain running up to the deep freeze months.

Could we see snow this year ?

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*


#777
Niko

Posted 23 October 2018 - 05:33 AM

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Currently sunny and crisp w temps near 40F. Nice, dry week coming up. Temps below normal w readings holding in the 40s and lows in the 20s.

 

EC could be impacted by a coastal storm w snows inland. Tbh, Oct snows have usually been followed by lame winters, so I prefer I see snow IMBY in late Nov. ;)



#778
Hawkeye

Posted 23 October 2018 - 09:28 AM

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If anyone was considering subscribing to a models site for the winter, weathermodels.com, Ryan Maue's company, is about to go up in price again.  It is currently $10 per month, but is rising to $13 on October 30th.  However, if you subscribe by the 29th you can remain at $10 per month.


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season snowfall: 36.2"

 

'18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#779
jaster220

Posted 23 October 2018 - 04:09 PM

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GOES-East satellite captured this infrared view of what looks like a frozen blanket over the eastern two-thirds of the U.S.

 

(Winter 2013-14)

 

us-icebox-goes-large_0.jpg

 

You can see the relentless WSW flow of bitter air across S Lk Michigan that brought constant LES. Felt just like my 7 yrs living in the Northlands of The Mitt  :D



#780
jaster220

Posted 23 October 2018 - 04:12 PM

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GFS does not look white for SMI, but it does look active thru it's range, including this interesting clipper-like system that curves right around The Mitt. Only 120 hrs out, so this may be somewhat realistic

 

Attached File  20181023 18zGfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh120-150.gif   1.22MB   1 downloads


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#781
jaster220

Posted 23 October 2018 - 04:45 PM

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Wow. New England getting slammed this pm by their own sneak attack storm. Complete with twisters and water spouts. This is a good sign for dynamic systems going forward.

 

https://twitter.com/...7402932225?s=21

 

 


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#782
Niko

Posted 23 October 2018 - 05:56 PM

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You can see the relentless WSW flow of bitter air across S Lk Michigan that brought constant LES. Felt just like my 7 yrs living in the Northlands of The Mitt  :D

Hopefully, we can see that again this upcoming Winter.


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#783
Niko

Posted 23 October 2018 - 05:58 PM

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GFS does not look white for SMI, but it does look active thru it's range, including this interesting clipper-like system that curves right around The Mitt. Only 120 hrs out, so this may be somewhat realistic

 

attachicon.gif20181023 18zGfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh120-150.gif

That is such a great track for us, had it been deeper in the Autumn season, some nice snow accumulations would have fallen. A sign of a pattern developing?!


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#784
Niko

Posted 23 October 2018 - 06:00 PM

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Currently, partly cloudy and dipping into the upper 20s tanite to near 30F. Colder tomorrow nite w readings falling in the mid 20s.



#785
OKwx2k4

Posted 23 October 2018 - 09:03 PM

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We have a fair bit riding on what happens here and after. Here is hoping for a second positive pattern realignment. Would like to see the low over the conus migrate back to the Arklatex area or see a handoff back to the southern branch, as in past parts of this pattern. Still a lot to watch.

Attached File  gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_35.png   297.26KB   0 downloads
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#786
westMJim

Posted 24 October 2018 - 04:01 AM

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With clear skies here the current temperature in MBY is 26.2° with a moderate amount of frost. As is the case many times with clear skies and calm winds the temperature here at my house is several degrees cooler then at the airport.  Here in my yard the low so far it the current temperature and at the airport the low so far is 29 and the current reading there is 30°. One item of note is that while this is the 3rd hard freeze here in the last 6 days there are still a ton of leaves on the trees here.  Some with moderate color and still many that are still green. And there are still many rose bushes that are having their last rose of summer is full bloom, 



#787
Niko

Posted 24 October 2018 - 05:33 AM

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Sunny, crisp and rather cold w temps at 36F. Lows last night dipped down to a frosty 28F. Highs not budging outta the mid 40s today and lows in the 20s.



#788
Niko

Posted 24 October 2018 - 05:43 AM

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Color status for MBY is at near peak. Its looking marvelous w all these colors going on. One windstorm and they are all gone. :lol:


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#789
Andie

Posted 24 October 2018 - 04:26 PM

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Hurricane Willa remnants have dropped 2 more inches of rain on my home today over about 11 hrs.

Ground totally saturated. Lake having to release some of its over flow. Two months and a week to go to the Yr. end rain total. Wow!
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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*


#790
jaster220

Posted 24 October 2018 - 05:59 PM

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Color status for MBY is at near peak. Its looking marvelous w all these colors going on. One windstorm and they are all gone. :lol:

 

Some trees are colorful over here, but others are either dropping leafs that are green/brown, or (in the country mostly) they've just gone brown without any real color. Noticing even more bare trees too, but like WestMJim said, there's still some stubborn ones clinging to green.  :rolleyes:  I've had frost on my car windshield at least the past 3 or 4 mornings. 


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#791
jaster220

Posted 24 October 2018 - 06:01 PM

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Hurricane Willa remnants have dropped 2 more inches of rain on my home today over about 11 hrs.

Ground totally saturated. Lake having to release some of its over flow. Two months and a week to go to the Yr. end rain total. Wow!

 

You've gotten crazy wet down there. Like extremes! Hopefully you have a cold version in a couple months.



#792
CentralNebWeather

Posted 24 October 2018 - 06:06 PM

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Moderate rain falling for the last hour with a temp of 47. Latest forecast has upped amounts here to around 1”. It is knocking the rest of the leaves off the trees.
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#793
Tom

Posted 25 October 2018 - 02:51 AM

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The JMA weeklies came in and they have considerably flipped warmer as we head into November.  So, we have the CFSv2 weeklies trend warmer across the Eastern CONUS for Week 2 and the Euro weeklies which hang on to the colder look from Monday's run.  Now, if for some reason the Euro weeklies trend warmer in today's run, then I think we will have to look for a pull back out of this colder pattern which fits some of the analogs for November.  

 

JMA Week 2 temps...very wet signal across the majority of our sub forum...

 

Y201810.D2412_gl2.png

 

Y201810.D2412_gl0.png

 

Week 3-4...ol' fashioned Indian Summer???

 

Y201810.D2412_gl2.png

 

 

Y201810.D2412_gl0.png

 

 

In my personal opinion, I think the model is a bit to strong with the EC ridge for Week 2.  While I do believe there will be one present, I don't see it infiltrate the MW/GL's as it shows above.  If major Typhoon Yutu does NOT re-curve, then yes, a stronger ridge will blossom in the East Week 2 that may create a very amplified pattern like we saw to open October.

 

However, based on what I'm seeing of the GEFS 10mb forecasts, they argue cold pushing south across the central CONUS Week 2.  Some subtle signs the PV may be getting perturbed Week 2 are encouraging as we get closer to Winter.

 

 

gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_30.png

 

 

 


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#794
Tom

Posted 25 October 2018 - 03:01 AM

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By the end of the month, what has been a long term long wave trough anchored near the Hudson Bay region since about the 12th, it will be replaced by a Hudson Bay ridge which fits where the 30mb warming has occurred across eastern Canada in late Sept/early Oct.  I think this signal is important for several reasons and that will encourage a lot of blocking across Canada.  If the EC ridge is present, along with blocking continuing across NE Canada while having the NE PAC present, then this will likely park a trough across the central CONUS to open November.

 

 

temp30anim.gif

 

 

 

 

 

Last night's 00z EPS showing this potential quite well...I got my eye on a big storm to open up November somewhere from the deep south and track up towards the GL's.

 

ecmwf-ens_z500aMean_namer_6.png

 

 

@ Okwx, this may be a Arklatex track you have been looking for...

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_namer_9.png

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_namer_10.png


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#795
westMJim

Posted 25 October 2018 - 03:43 AM

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If we warm up in November think of it as "Indian Summer" This AM here I have had a low of 27.1° so far with clear skies and a calm wind. This is the 4th time it has gotten below 30 here in the last week.  But there are still a lot of leaves left on the trees for some reason the leaves are hanging on this fall. Should also note that while there is some color it is not the best.


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#796
OKwx2k4

Posted 25 October 2018 - 04:50 AM

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By the end of the month, what has been a long term long wave trough anchored near the Hudson Bay region since about the 12th, it will be replaced by a Hudson Bay ridge which fits where the 30mb warming has occurred across eastern Canada in late Sept/early Oct. I think this signal is important for several reasons and that will encourage a lot of blocking across Canada. If the EC ridge is present, along with blocking continuing across NE Canada while having the NE PAC present, then this will likely park a trough across the central CONUS to open November.


temp30anim.gif





Last night's 00z EPS showing this potential quite well...I got my eye on a big storm to open up November somewhere from the deep south and track up towards the GL's.

ecmwf-ens_z500aMean_namer_6.png


@ Okwx, this may be a Arklatex track you have been looking for...

https://www.tropical...paNorm_namer_9. png

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_namer_10.png


Man, If I could just call out snow and see it happen like that. We'd be all set. Hard to give a model credit for that one when they seem to be running 100 percent at odds with each other about every other day. I'd have to lean to transient warm up down here, followed by returning cold blast, ec ridge. Nice pattern progression.
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#797
Andrew NE

Posted 25 October 2018 - 05:03 AM

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Does anyone if you have to get a subscription to weather2020 now, nothing shows up on the comment discussions anymore this past week?



#798
Clinton

Posted 25 October 2018 - 05:17 AM

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Does anyone if you have to get a subscription to weather2020 now, nothing shows up on the comment discussions anymore this past week?

 

No it's free


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#799
Niko

Posted 25 October 2018 - 06:00 AM

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Some trees are colorful over here, but others are either dropping leafs that are green/brown, or (in the country mostly) they've just gone brown without any real color. Noticing even more bare trees too, but like WestMJim said, there's still some stubborn ones clinging to green.  :rolleyes:  I've had frost on my car windshield at least the past 3 or 4 mornings. 

Yup, I still see also very few trees here that still wanna hang on to some green. So annoying. :wacko:



#800
Niko

Posted 25 October 2018 - 06:04 AM

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It got mighty cold last night as temps fell to a BRRRRRR 25F. Coldest so far this season.


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