November 2018 Observations and Discussion

[Niko]

TWC has me for 1-2inches of snow. Not bad for Nov.12th.

[jaster220]

TWC has me for 1-2inches of snow. Not bad for Nov.12th.

 

sounds 'bout right. Did you get much Friday night/Sat morning?

[shakjen]

Light snow here. Enough to put a dusting back on the grass.

[jaster220]

As usual

 

At least lately. Not sure how if it's because these are more S Stream vs N Stream waves or what exactly, but NAM's been money even at it's even way out at h84 which wasn't traditionally the case. If this continues, it will be hard to ignore with future systems. 

[jaster220]

I will add that the V3 has been closer to the NAM fwiw

[jaster220]

TWC has me for 1-2inches of snow. Not bad for Nov.12th.

 

Over night timing looks ideal for this as well considering the marginal temps issue. Whenever we dip to 32F it's going to stay below freezing for a day or two according to my grid. Even the Mitt is getting the Big Chill

[bud2380]

a weak clipper looks to come through the region Friday perhaps into Saturday, outside of that not much for Iowa in the next 7 days.  

[jaster220]

Snow began to fall as I arrived in town this evening. Still above freezing so no coating yet. It sure was festive tho

[jaster220]

Snow on snow! Nov 12th?? Coming down at a good clip now. Whitening my deck

 

KRMY reporting 1.5 mi vis in snow at 8:15

[jaster220]

Per AFD

 

 

The next storm system that may lead to impacts is show to move in

on Saturday with snow. There is some lift and deeper moisture

shown with this weak storm that tracks eastward through the state.

Thus an increased risk for impacts exists. Temperatures will fall

steadily behind this departing system for Saturday night into

Sunday. Based on the forecasted winds behind this system the lake

effect impacts could be aimed toward the southern end of Lake MI

Saturday night into Sunday. We will need to monitor this closely

in the coming days.

[Tom]

While I was in Chicago this evening, near downtown, there was light fluffy snow falling.  It was a nice surprise to see even though I wasn't expecting to see any snow today.  This has been one of the more exciting Autumn patterns I've been fortunate to track and study.  The latest Euro Weeklies have come in and they still show the relaxation of the pattern Thanksgiving week, but then it turns stormy and colder to close out the month.  December is gonna rock...hands down...knowing what the JMA seasonal showed today, the Euro weeklies are heading that way as well.  Very fun and exciting pattern ahead. 

[Niko]

sounds 'bout right. Did you get much Friday night/Sat morning?

2.0"

[Niko]

Snowing now and everything is beginning to whiten up. Temp at 33F.

[Niko]

The late system towards the end of the week is beginning to look somewhat interesting. My temps are getting colder and colder. Something to watch and pay close attention to.

[gabel23]

Call me crazy but it appears the gfs is shifting towards a more southerly and blocky appearance in the long range. Might be a response to the AO and NAO crash now showing up or the beginning of a new cycle. We are due back for the storm around our area in the early part of October that gave me 3” of precipitation. I’m thinking the weekend after Thanksgiving will be an interesting time period to watch.

[Minny_Weather]

Call me crazy but it appears the gfs is shifting towards a more southerly and blocky appearance in the long range. Might be a response to the AO and NAO crash now showing up or the beginning of a new cycle. We are due back for the storm around our area in the early part of October that gave me 3” of precipitation. I’m thinking the weekend after Thanksgiving will be an interesting time period to watch.

It's funny you say that because I'm watching a storm system moving onto the coast of California around the Thanksgiving timeframe. I've been watching that for a while now cuz it could affect my family plans, as I'll be out there for Thanksgiving, but it never occurred to me that I should try and think how that will affect here down the road.

 

Will it be cold enough for snow to be the dominant ptype? I don't think so atm, but it's 2 weeks out.

[Minny_Weather]

It's funny. There's literally no wind outside, yet there's no radiational cooling. Temps were supposed to fall like a rock tonight, yet it quit falling at around 10:00. 14.5°F.

[Bryan1117]

It's funny. There's literally no wind outside, yet there's no radiational cooling. Temps were supposed to fall like a rock tonight, yet it quit falling at around 10:00. 14.5°F.

Yeah I noticed that temps only fell into the mid teens around here last night (forecast low was 10). The lack of any real snow cover around here (most of what was left here melted on Sunday) seemed to have kept the low temperatures in check.

 

Looks like a more seasonal and boring pattern is taking shape to end the work week, with another mostly dry cold shot over the weekend.

[Tom]

Well, there goes that chance of any "warm up" around these parts during Thanksgiving week.  Unless your in the central/southern Plains or the high Plains of the Dakotas, the high lat blocking setting up is the real deal.  I'm impressed how this pattern is evolving and the transitional week next week is gearing up to be just that, a major transition towards high lat blocking, a highly amplified and blocked up pattern which will create an ideal storm track from coast-to-coast.  Not only that, but we are heading back into a colder pattern post Thanksgiving. 

 

 

00z EPS trended much colder across the Plains later next weekend into the last week of November which shifts east as well.  All indication from the modeling is for the STJ to churn up right around 11/22.  FWIW, the 00z snow signal has some encouraging signs that the snow chances are on the rise post Thanksgiving for nearly everyone on here...believe it or not.  Just in time to put up the Christmas decorations and have nature put on the final touches.

 

I'm monitoring 2 storm systems: 1) Black Friday period  2) 11/25-11/28 (this one has an intriguing look for a biggie)

 

Are we on the verge of a SSW event around the 11/22 timeframe???  Boy, the Euro, along with other modeling is showing a blossoming warming event across Russia/Siberia around Day 8-10.  This, will be a big deal as we head into December.

 

 

 

 

[St Paul Storm]

Currently a frosty 6F with a wind chill of -6F. The lake I live on is 57ft deep near the center and there is a thin layer of ice this morning across the entire lake. That’s the earliest I’ve seen that happen. Usually the center doesn’t freeze until the first week of Dec.

[Tom]

Currently a frosty 6F with a wind chill of -6F. The lake I live on is 57ft deep near the center and there is a thin layer of ice this morning across the entire lake. That’s the earliest I’ve seen that happen. Usually the center doesn’t freeze until the first week of Dec.

Man, only 6F???  Dang man, it's 19F here and I'm about to take a walk outside and embrace it.  Can't imagine being in the single digits and subzero WC's.  This winter is gonna brutal.  I'm sure your stocked and ready.

[james1976]

Impressive cold for Nov 13th and no snowcover. I had 9F on my way to work this morning.

[St Paul Storm]

Man, only 6F??? Dang man, it's 19F here and I'm about to take a walk outside and embrace it. Can't imagine being in the single digits and subzero WC's. This winter is gonna brutal. I'm sure your stocked and ready.

It’s a little crazy even by MN standards. It looks and feels like the dead of winter. I’m stocked and loaded for what this winter brings, although I’m a little cautious about snowfall up this way. Ice box winters don’t really bring the goods in terms of snowfall. 2013-2014 is a recent exception however. We had a pretty good winter last year with the snow, so I can’t complain if the storm track is stuck south of here which I think may happen.

[westMJim]

At this time there is light snow falling and a trace of snow on the grass and road. The current temperature here at my house is now at 28.9° and that is the low since midnight. So far this November has a mean temperature of 39.5° at Grand Rapids the average mean for the time of November is 43.7° so that is a departure of -4.2° The average high so for is 44.0° this is well below the normal average high of 51.6° the average low so far has been 34.9° the normal average low is 35.8° so far 5..3" of snow has fallen at the airport. Here at my house I have only recorded 3.9" of snow fall so far this month. 

[Tom]

00z GEFS are also seeing the snowier look Week 2 from the inter-mountain west towards the GL's....

 

[Andie]

Early for a low of 27* this a.m.

We're forecast for 26* tomorrow morning.

 

No rain, etc, just deep Canadian cold. We normally don't see this until Thanksgiving or later.

[Niko]

Call me crazy but it appears the gfs is shifting towards a more southerly and blocky appearance in the long range. Might be a response to the AO and NAO crash now showing up or the beginning of a new cycle. We are due back for the storm around our area in the early part of October that gave me 3” of precipitation. I’m thinking the weekend after Thanksgiving will be an interesting time period to watch.

Indeed. TWC has snowshowers for my area on that weekend w cold temps. Also, I've noticed that couple of days ago, my extended showed 40s for highs. Now, they have disappeared and are replaced by 30s.

[Niko]

Well, another snowfall came down last night and dumped nearly 2.3" IMBY. Very impressive look to it. So far, I have picked up 4.1" of snowfall for the month of November. Dang! Not bad at all.

 

Sun is out, but nothing melting as temps remain below freezing. Currently at 30F.

[Niko]

Late week system looks to eye my locale w a mess. A combo of everything b4 the arctic express arrives. Coldest night expected here Sunday morning as temps bottom out in the mid teens. WCF'S probably near the S.D's.

[Clinton]

Great write up by the NWS in KC.  "If the snow seemed like it came early this year, you are right.  Not only did we have the first measurable snowfall on record for KC on Oct 14th, but there has only been 3 years in KC's 131 year history that we have had 3 measurable snowfall events by 11/12... 1898, 1992, and now 2018!  How much snow did those years bring?

 

The cold season of 1898-1899 had 38.6" (The 6th snowiest on record)

 

The cold season of 1992-1993 had 34.3" (11th snowiest on record)

 

Normal for KC is 18.8"

[bud2380]

GFS with some snow showing up on Saturday.  The clipper is looking a little more potent on this run.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018111312/114/sn10_024h.us_mw.png

[bud2380]

Canadian showing what looks like 2 waves coming in back to back with a long continuous light snow event that piles up pretty decent over the weekend.

 

 

http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2018111312/144/snku_acc.us_mw.png

[bud2380]

UK has the same clipper, but further north that the Canadian, fairly similar to the GFS.  maybe a bit more north. Also a bit quicker, looks like it comes through Friday night into early Saturday AM.  Something to keep an eye on the next couple days. 

[james1976]

Could be a surprise event??

[jaster220]

Great write up by the NWS in KC.  "If the snow seemed like it came early this year, you are right.  Not only did we have the first measurable snowfall on record for KC on Oct 14th, but there has only been 3 years in KC's 131 year history that we have had 3 measurable snowfall events by 11/12... 1898, 1992, and now 2018!  How much snow did those years bring?

 

The cold season of 1898-1899 had 38.6" (The 6th snowiest on record)

 

The cold season of 1992-1993 had 34.3" (11th snowiest on record)

 

Normal for KC is 18.8"

 

Congrats! These are good omens for your winter. 

[jaster220]

Very picturesque snow fall overnight. Car was a glued-on pile of ice, but otherwise it was Courier & Ives scenic on my way to work this morning. Nicely, with the moderate rates and low-moisture content flakes mostly melted on the concrete so no real issues on the drive. 

[Niko]

Great write up by the NWS in KC.  "If the snow seemed like it came early this year, you are right.  Not only did we have the first measurable snowfall on record for KC on Oct 14th, but there has only been 3 years in KC's 131 year history that we have had 3 measurable snowfall events by 11/12... 1898, 1992, and now 2018!  How much snow did those years bring?

 

The cold season of 1898-1899 had 38.6" (The 6th snowiest on record)

 

The cold season of 1992-1993 had 34.3" (11th snowiest on record)

 

Normal for KC is 18.8"

Wow!

[Niko]

Currently at 33F w scattered flurries flying around. Looks like December out there.

[WBadgersW]

GFS with some snow showing up on Saturday. The clipper is looking a little more potent on this run.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2018111312/114/sn10_024h.us_mw.png

That would make for an exciting NCAA cross country national championship in Madison.

[Minny_Weather]

Houston received its earliest snow on record today, smashing the previous record by about 10 days.