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January 2019 Observations and Discussion

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#101
GDR

Posted 01 January 2019 - 02:14 PM

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Attached File  F453D2B3-0E8F-4CA3-9B7E-E1FEBC915333.png   774.23KB   0 downloads

#102
LNK_Weather

Posted 01 January 2019 - 03:09 PM

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^ This has not been Southern Alberta's winter.

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 3/9/2019 @ 12:51 PM CST

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#103
jaster220

Posted 01 January 2019 - 03:17 PM

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Looks like maybe by the 18th it cools off, but who knows...been waiting for a pattern change since Dec 13th so not holding my breath this one shows up.

 

Here's your culprit imho. The SSWE shoved what I call the "back-drop" cold anomalies everywhere but NAMER

 

Attached File  Screenshot_2019-01-01 WeatherBELL Analytics.png   507.06KB   7 downloads


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.3"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.3 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#104
jaster220

Posted 01 January 2019 - 03:29 PM

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That very we could happen. . In looking at Grand Rapids history I did find a winter season that “could” be a path to a average to just above average snow fall season. The winter??? 1971/72 At Grand Rapids November 1971 had 14.9” of snow fall (November 2018 had 14.4”) December of 1971 had just 3.7” and was the 7th least snowy December of record here. (December 2018 is in 6th place with 3.2”) January 1972 started out warm and most of the first 13 days were warmer than average. But there was 12.2” of snow in the 13 days. Starting on the 14th of January it became much colder and the rest of the month was colder then average but only 10.6” of snow fell that 2nd half (a total of 22.6”) February was cold (-4.9°) and there was 16.9” of snow. March was cold -6.0° with 14.2” of snow and April was cold 5.7 be low average and seen 5.7” of snow. Spring did come later in May of 1972

BTW that winter was one of only 2 that had very low December snow fall totals at Grand Rapids that came in with at or above average seasonal snow fall one of the other was the winter of 2014/15 but that winter had 31.0" in November and then had 23.2 in January and 19.6 in February. 

 

Interestingly, 2014-15 would be the favored analog turn-about here in Marshall for two reasons. First, the Nov LES outbreak of '14 clobbered GR while mostly just grazing Marshall thus we actually got most of our snow after it turned colder in January. 2nd, when the tide finally turned it was the 94 corridor south of GR that took a direct hit with the Feb 2nd Big Dog snowstorm. Mby snowfall by month for that season: Nov 6.7" Dec 1.2" Jan 18.5" Feb 26.9" Mar 2". I finished with 11% above normal snowfall and spring was not delayed. Much prefer that path to a snowy total if I had a choice.


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.3"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.3 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#105
Niko

Posted 01 January 2019 - 06:10 PM

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Cloudy w temps in the 20s. Geez when I walked outside later this evening after that huge NYD party, if felt balmy. What a weird Winter.



#106
jaster220

Posted 01 January 2019 - 06:13 PM

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Cloudy w temps in the 20s. Geez when I walked outside later this evening after that huge NYD party, if felt balmy. What a weird Winter.

 

Meanwhile, with fresh snow cover NMI will go below zero. Currently down to 4F at Gaylord.


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.3"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.3 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#107
Andie

Posted 01 January 2019 - 06:24 PM

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Well, the ice pellets in the morning chickened out. They're saying now we will see rain and snow showers Thursday afternoon. I'm sure it will melt, but maybe it'll be pretty. Temps will be on the 32-34* line.

Thought it was a little too early for ice and snow, although it has happened. When it did it was with a strong system barreling out of the Rockies. Oh well, OKwx and I can soothe our woes with a New Years toast!
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2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*

#108
Hawkeye

Posted 01 January 2019 - 06:33 PM

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Even the current brief cold blast pooped out compared to what it originally was supposed to be.  Instead of highs in the teens, we're getting lows in the teens.


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season snowfall: 49.9"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#109
Niko

Posted 01 January 2019 - 08:13 PM

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Currently clear skies and a temp of 22F.



#110
Niko

Posted 01 January 2019 - 08:14 PM

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Meanwhile, with fresh snow cover NMI will go below zero. Currently down to 4F at Gaylord.

That snowcover definitely lowers those temps.



#111
Niko

Posted 01 January 2019 - 08:21 PM

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That early week system next week looks to be rain and not snow. Perhaps some flurries at the tail end of it. Temps look very marginal for any wintry precipitation. Believe it or not couple of days ago, models were showing a 3-5inch snowevent for my area and now it has gone to a rainevent. Wow, just wow. :rolleyes:


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#112
Niko

Posted 01 January 2019 - 08:23 PM

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This is my only day at or below freezing forecasted for next 8 days. If winter comes, it’s going to be short lived.

Pathetic Winter so far. :rolleyes:



#113
Tom

Posted 02 January 2019 - 04:21 AM

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After analyzing the overnight 00z EPS/GEFS, its interesting to see that both of them are seeing more blocking early next week developing across SE Canada which may aid in a more wintry storm system (7th-9th) in and around the GL's.  The 00z Euro spun up a pretty healthy looking snow storm for MI which also has some good ensemble support.  The amount of blocking evolving into the pattern would support such a system so something to track possibly for the GL's region???

 

Looking out ahead, there still is quite the differences between the EPS/GEFS on how the pattern develops later next week.  This week will lead us into a very busy and active period (11th-12), (15th-18th) as we head into one of the more active periods of the LRC.  More notably, the Blizzard that hit in late November which will cycle through about the middle of the month, but before then, there are more possible opportunities.

 

Let's dive in...IMO, I believe the GEFS are handling the blocking much better than the EPS.  It seems to me the EPS is having a difficult time with the EPO and Greenland Block.  Here is a reason why I believe there will be blocking and why the GEFS are handling the pattern a lot better  Week 1-2.  Taking a look at the 30mb warming which has occurred between Dec 13-30th, we saw it blossom near Greenland and if you fast forward 2-3 weeks, it would suggest a -NAO to blossom a few days before Jan 1st (which has happened) and continue for at least 2 weeks.  BTW, we may loose the strength of the -NAO (more neutral?) towards the middle of the month so something to watch.

 

 

temp30anim.gif''

 

 

When will we see a return of the Hudson Bay Polar Vortex???  It's coming and it will cycle back between the 14th-16th and with more high lat blocking in place...look for the cold to really start bleeding south.  One of the main reasons I look at the GEFS 10mb height maps is it provides a great tool where to expect troughs/ridges in the extended.  Check out the animation below and one will quickly notice that following the PV split, a main vortex takes over into North America.  I haven't seen this type of set up all season long which bodes well for extreme cold to build and part of the reason why severe winter may be setting up mid/late January.  I'll comment more on storm threats in my next post.


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#114
Tom

Posted 02 January 2019 - 04:45 AM

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"The storms are a comin'..."...this past weekend, we saw the models flash the Jan 7th-9th storm system, then loose it, now some models are trying to bring it back.  Let's see where the models trend but this one may end up being a N GL's sytems, unless the blocking is stronger across SE Canada.  Following this system, I'm looking for another one to develop a 2-3 days later between the 11th-12th.  Last nights 00z/06z GEFS are trending a bit more wintry across the Plains into the GL's.  We need to see what happens with the EPO as it will be critical and allow the cold to "push" south during this period.   Could this system be the one the "breaks the camels back"???  With the high lat blocking fully entrenched and a favorable MJO, IMO, odds are in favor of this to happen, all awhile, the active period of the LRC cycles back during some of the more powerful storm systems and main Exhibit. 

 

With that in mind, according to the BSR and LRC, the periods from Jan 15th-18th & Jan 21st-24th, look for a couple powerful storms to track out of the SW and cut NE.  The Euro weeklies have been holding onto the idea of a relaxed PNA during this period and last nights EPS jet stream forecast heading into Week 2 is forecasting a deep SW Flow pattern and fits the long standing idea of a SER during the middle/end of January.  I know there has been a lot of angst among some folks on here, but as I said before, give this season a chance bc there is a lot on the table.  I'll be the first to say that I busted Bigly on the lack of cold to close out the month of Dec and open Jan.  Needless to say, it's a learning experience and a humbling one.  However, I will say, that I do a darn good job predicting storm systems sometimes weeks out into the future.  So, I'll finish with this, as the SSW begins to subside and the slow propagation of the effects following a Major Mid-Warming event, this winter will have legs and I believe it begins later next week.


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#115
Stacsh

Posted 02 January 2019 - 05:29 AM

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Surprise WWA today for 1-2" of snow.  Lake Enhanced.  GRR said its been so long since last snow they issued the advisory to remind people lol.


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#116
Clinton

Posted 02 January 2019 - 05:35 AM

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Tom, great write up and analysis.  You have a great understanding of the LRC and seem to be spot on in your assessment of the upcoming pattern.  Gary Lezak has written a blog today that supports everything Tom stated above and should improve a lot of feeling about what the rest of this winter has in store.  He goes into detail about what caused the blizzard to happen in the first cycle and his opinions on the upcoming cycle.

 

https://weather2020....ns-in-november/


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#117
Tom

Posted 02 January 2019 - 06:34 AM

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Tom, great write up and analysis.  You have a great understanding of the LRC and seem to be spot on in your assessment of the upcoming pattern.  Gary Lezak has written a blog today that supports everything Tom stated above and should improve a lot of feeling about what the rest of this winter has in store.  He goes into detail about what caused the blizzard to happen in the first cycle and his opinions on the upcoming cycle.

 

https://weather2020....ns-in-november/

Thanks Clinton!  I appreciate that...the reality is, I put the time and work into studying the wx pattern.  In the end, I hope there is value at the end of the day.  With that being said, the target period around the 10th or so of the month, the pattern becomes more favorable for systems across the Plains and the models seem to be pointing that way.  Good luck to you down there!  


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#118
Andie

Posted 02 January 2019 - 07:05 AM

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Woke to ice/rain mix this morning. Seems the freezing rain changed its mind.
Dallas in the clear, but Ft. Worth dealing with slick bridges and overpasses as we are higher in elevation. Not uncommon in No Tx.

Two days of rain ahead with highs and lows in the mid 30's.
Currently 31*, mixed precipitation.
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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*

#119
Niko

Posted 02 January 2019 - 08:19 AM

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Cloudy w a few snowshowers flying around. A dusting is around. Temps at 25F.



#120
LNK_Weather

Posted 02 January 2019 - 08:48 AM

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I'm going to back up what Tom is saying about a storm in the 15-18th timeframe. The Western trough that has been plaguing us forever looks to move into the area per EPS, and I do think we will see a storm from that. 

Attached File  EPS 1.png   561.74KB   1 downloads

 

Attached File  EPS 2.png   489.43KB   1 downloads

 

One thing I am concerned about in this case, however, are thermals. 850 temps look to be at normal or above normal, with 2M temps similar, if not warmer. There is not much cold air to work with as this will be a Pacific flow. For people up North, that may not be a big deal. In places like Iowa and Nebraska, however, above normal is above freezing. I would not be surprised to see this turn into a rain or even ice event for some. Butttt it's two weeks out so we will see.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 3/9/2019 @ 12:51 PM CST

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#121
Sparky

Posted 02 January 2019 - 09:04 AM

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Here's your culprit imho. The SSWE shoved what I call the "back-drop" cold anomalies everywhere but NAMER

attachicon.gifScreenshot_2019-01-01 WeatherBELL Analytics.png

Wow....that’s amazing! Sorry, but I’m enjoying it though. Once I change occupations (I’m thinking about it or retiring 😉) then I can enjoy snow to the fullest again though I always will hate bitter cold!!
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(‘18 - ‘19 season snowfall total: 52”. )
‘18 - ‘19 season snowfall by month = Nov: 14.2, Dec: .30”, Jan: 21.2”, Feb: 13.8”,
Mar: 2.5”
Greatest season snowfall = 60.5” in 2007 - ‘08

#122
Niko

Posted 02 January 2019 - 09:09 AM

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Some very light snowshowers are still around creating a light glaze on the surface. Some slick spots are possible w temps in the 20s.



#123
Sparky

Posted 02 January 2019 - 09:22 AM

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Wow....that’s amazing! Sorry, but I’m enjoying it though. Once I change occupations (I’m thinking about it or retiring ) then I can enjoy snow to the fullest again though I always will hate bitter cold!!

Don’t get me wrong.... I still enjoy big snowstorms like the one on November 25! I ‘ll remember that one for a long time since it was one of the largest on my records, & it occurred in November!!!
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(‘18 - ‘19 season snowfall total: 52”. )
‘18 - ‘19 season snowfall by month = Nov: 14.2, Dec: .30”, Jan: 21.2”, Feb: 13.8”,
Mar: 2.5”
Greatest season snowfall = 60.5” in 2007 - ‘08

#124
LNK_Weather

Posted 02 January 2019 - 09:54 AM

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Now the GEFS is concerning. Kills the idea of a 15-18th storm. However, I am not willing to put much weight on it just yet simply because it has a ridge overpowering the Southern stream and basically "pushing" the trough back out deep into the Pacific. It then proceeds to revive the trough in the Southeastern part of the country. I think that's wacky & at the moment unbelievable. We'll see in about a week or so.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 3/9/2019 @ 12:51 PM CST

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#125
Niko

Posted 02 January 2019 - 10:15 AM

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The futurecast has a couple of systems down the road, but not even looking at them attm. Way to soon. Its good though that models are seeing LP's. Just hope they don't fade out as the event nears.



#126
Money

Posted 02 January 2019 - 10:37 AM

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The storm next week is starting to get interesting

Def trend south and colder

#127
someweatherdude

Posted 02 January 2019 - 10:52 AM

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FV3 looking much more wintry starting next weekend.  We'll see ...


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#128
Clinton

Posted 02 January 2019 - 11:19 AM

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FV3 looking much more wintry starting next weekend. 

Could make for an interesting Chiefs game.



#129
LNK_Weather

Posted 02 January 2019 - 11:28 AM

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One facet where FV3 deserves credit is the fact that it's been good at sniffing out storms this Winter. It has not been good at all with amounts or strength, but it's been good at just showing storms that end up playing out.


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>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 3/9/2019 @ 12:51 PM CST

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#130
someweatherdude

Posted 02 January 2019 - 11:36 AM

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One facet where FV3 deserves credit is the fact that it's been good at sniffing out storms this Winter. It has not been good at all with amounts or strength, but it's been good at just showing storms that end up playing out.

In addition to that storm (which is a pipe dream), the FV3 also just looks colder and snowier in general -- particularly colder. 

 

gTSbcQc.png



#131
someweatherdude

Posted 02 January 2019 - 11:37 AM

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Could make for an interesting Chiefs game.

Indeed.  



#132
Niko

Posted 02 January 2019 - 12:25 PM

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WWA for my area as freezing drizzle and light snow could cause travel issues. Temsp are below freezing w freezing drizzle currently.



#133
LNK_Weather

Posted 02 January 2019 - 01:23 PM

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In addition to that storm (which is a pipe dream), the FV3 also just looks colder and snowier in general -- particularly colder. 

 

gTSbcQc.png

I'll be in Fargo then so bring on the -42 air temps!  :lol:


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 3/9/2019 @ 12:51 PM CST

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#134
Stacsh

Posted 02 January 2019 - 01:38 PM

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The futurecast has a couple of systems down the road, but not even looking at them attm. Way to soon. Its good though that models are seeing LP's. Just hope they don't fade out as the event nears.

 

GRR mentions widespread 40's maybe even 50 this weekend. ugh  Currently 1" of new snow today, maybe 1" more to go.  It will be short lived and melt quickly.  



#135
gimmesnow

Posted 02 January 2019 - 02:02 PM

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 Three horrible winters in a row have me scared, specially since solar activity is so low now and has been for a while. Another month of the pattern changing next week until mid Feb when winter is cancelled.



#136
Niko

Posted 02 January 2019 - 02:08 PM

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GRR mentions widespread 40's maybe even 50 this weekend. ugh  Currently 1" of new snow today, maybe 1" more to go.  It will be short lived and melt quickly.  

Try into the 50s. I can see records being broken.

 

Jaster might go for tanning on the lake :lol:


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#137
Niko

Posted 02 January 2019 - 02:12 PM

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For the Jan 7th -8th system, my forecast is calling RAIN. Temps in the upper 30s to near 40. Colder and dryer for Wednesday. El Nino in full force. This is Winter 2015-16 repeat or 2011-12.



#138
Niko

Posted 02 January 2019 - 02:16 PM

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 Three horrible winters in a row have me scared, specially since solar activity is so low now and has been for a while. Another month of the pattern changing next week until mid Feb when winter is cancelled.

Dont hold your breathe. The Pacific Jet is in full force. Its hard to break that mild, pacific air flow. If I dont see a pattern change by the mid January as projected, I am rooting for February, after that, I am rooting for Spring. :D


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#139
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 January 2019 - 03:12 PM

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No highs below 32F for at least the next 7 days starting tomorrow. Possible record highs on Friday and Saturday, with 50F possible. I say bring it. If it ain’t gonna snow in mid winter, let’s roll with the warmth. Can’t do anything about. Might as well enjoy it.
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#140
jaster220

Posted 02 January 2019 - 03:40 PM

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@Tom

 

Great analysis in your morning posts. I've been on the road all day and was too busy to check on anything wx-wise but was hoping to find out that increased blocking may bring the 7-8th system back on the table for MI. Thx for confirming models are seeing the potential. Whether it can follow thru or not remains to be seen, but it's a nice possibility at least. Otherwise, I hope the LRC tracking pays dividends and the rest of what you're laying out comes to fruition for everyone's sake.


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.3"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.3 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#141
jaster220

Posted 02 January 2019 - 04:45 PM

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Upper Peninsula got chilly last night. Saw a -20F and numerous teens below zero. At least it's winter somewhere..


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.3"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.3 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#142
Niko

Posted 02 January 2019 - 06:02 PM

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Currently 29F w freezing drizzle.



#143
Tom

Posted 03 January 2019 - 03:50 AM

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One of the more important mistakes and learning experiences this winter has been the anticipated NE PAC ridge which has failed to materialize in Dec and thus far into January. In the months of Oct/Nov, we did see the NE PAC ridge flex its muscles but has since been non existent and the jet has been slamming into the west coast. In seasons past, with such warm water tucked into the NE PAC, that ridge had no problem blossoming. This season, I think the jet has just been to strong it seems. Everything else seems to be going as planned with the SSW event already taken place, -AO/-NAO, but the EPO has not been cooperating.

Today's JMA weeklies literally blow torch the entire nation and even Canada over the next 2 weeks and have flipped with no arctic blocking and NW NAMER ridge. Here are the Week 1 temps...

Y201901.D0212_gl2.png

Week 2...

Y201901.D0212_gl2.png


Maybe, just maybe the pattern decides to flip into Week 3-4 but I'm beginning to wonder...

Y201901.D0212_gl2.png


The SOI has begun to crash and is steadily negative which usually is a cattle prod to atmospheric changes over N. A. in the Week 1-2 period.

Average SOI for last 30 days 7.42 Average SOI for last 90 days 4.31 Daily contribution to SOI calculation -13.00

Monthly average SOI values Oct 2.61 Nov 0.56






As JB pointed out yesterday, this year there is just to much warm water in the PAC oceans and not enough cold pockets to create that contrast which results in deeper troughs where the "cool" pockets of water are located. One thing is for certain, the waters in the NE PAC have cooled off dramatically since the early Autumn and could be a culprit to less extensive ridging in this region. Check out the current SST's compared to just 1 month ago.

Current....

Y201901.D0212_gls.png

Dec 4th...


Y201812.D0512_gls.png


As we continue to progress through the month, I'm really curious is this ridge pops or not. Time will tell.

In other news, China's rover lands on the far side of the moon...the space race continues...wonder if they will ever show any evidence of bases on the "dark side"...

https://www.nytimes....nge-4-moon.html
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#144
Tom

Posted 03 January 2019 - 04:19 AM

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Last night's 00z EPS agrees with the JMA, cold Arctic/+EPO/+AO into Week 2 = Blow Torch nation....unbelievable...I don't think I've ever seen such a thing post SSW.  Meanwhile, GEFS still suggesting a -AO pattern but is starting to lean more neutral in the EPO in the 6-10 day range, flipping from the -EPO it was showing for a number of days during this period.

 

In the meantime, there will be storms to track but trying to pin down who gets what is going to be a difficult task at this range.  Nonetheless, models are pointing towards a decent opportunity during the 11th-12th period that the northern half of the sub to be in the game.  The 00z Euro is showing widespread 2-5" totals from SD into N IA/MN/ N IL/WI/MI.  The GFS is a bit more aggressive and lays down a significant swath of snow in this general region.  I'm having flashbacks of last year's Nina pattern with this particular set up.

 

gfs_asnow_ncus_41.png

 

 

gfs_asnow_ncus_40.png


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#145
Clinton

Posted 03 January 2019 - 05:04 AM

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Tom your coming down with a case of the modelties!  Don't loose faith in what you know about the LRC!



#146
East Dubzz

Posted 03 January 2019 - 05:22 AM

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Just a bunch of rain on the GFS here. Gross!

#147
Grizzcoat

Posted 03 January 2019 - 05:40 AM

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I even think - he would never show it openly - JB knows he busted. On Dec 31st- even he sounded down about the EURO not agreeing with him. For an example - DSM for the month of DEC was +4.9F compared to the 30 yr avg's. IF the cold comes- it certainly is not coming TO STAY any earlier than the 15th of this month. So let's say the first 15 days of JAN avg +10F (which it easily could)-- that would mean that the first half of winter has avg  +6.3F for DSM, Weatherbell forecast is for D-J-F to be -3F. So that means that rest of the winter through FEB 28th would have to avg  -9.57F to meet that winter forecast of -3F. Sorry- that is not happening.  sorry for the negativity - but it's is what is.


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2018-19 Snowfall- 47.0" - JAN 19'   18.7" (7th all time snowiest) Feb 19' 25.7" (All Time Snowiest FEB)  JAN and FEB 19' first back to back double digit snow months since J/F of 2011


#148
james1976

Posted 03 January 2019 - 05:40 AM

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Just a bunch of rain on the GFS here. Gross!

Been a lot of that this winter
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#149
james1976

Posted 03 January 2019 - 05:43 AM

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I'm gonna enjoy the 50F weather this weekend. Definitely gonna turn on the grill.

#150
james1976

Posted 03 January 2019 - 06:09 AM

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7th-8th looks like another rainer. However that tight baroclinic zone setting up late next week looks interesting. Will it hold?