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August 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

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#101
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2019 - 01:10 PM

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The jinx of the #iceboxsnark is playing out nicely so far...


Maybe the poor persecuted heat lovers will catch another break. Tim will tell!

#102
Front Ranger

Posted 01 August 2019 - 01:14 PM

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Numerous people around King County reported the same thing on here.   Even people who liked the clouds said that it was quite unusual and persistent.

 

You are re-writing history now and saying it was just me.   It was not.    Stop rehashing old crap.

 

Not re-writing anything. I provided actual stats, rather than anecdotes and feelings.


Low. Solar.


#103
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 August 2019 - 01:16 PM

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Off-topic, I've been also thinking of applying at University of Montana. I've always wanted to live there, and I think I meet all of their requirements. That is, of course, if I get outright rejected by Wazzu or OSU.


I wanted to go to one of the bigger schools but decided on Mt. Hood CC then PSU at the last moment. Got a great process engineer job now. So even if you have to settle for University of Montana, you can still have a bright future. Just study hard.

Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#104
Front Ranger

Posted 01 August 2019 - 01:16 PM

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You are both be correct, it's all framing. July was abnormally cloudy in King County and March to July was warmer and sunnier than normal in King County. You're arguing about preferences, not actual data. This forum seems to talk less about "___er than average" and more about "___er than I'd prefer". 

 

Yes, due to the first couple weeks mainly. Never disputed that.

 

What I was disputing was Tim's claims that it was a solid month of cloudiness/rain for all of King County. The stats for places like SEA argue otherwise. His backyard? Sure, I believe it.


Low. Solar.


#105
Front Ranger

Posted 01 August 2019 - 01:21 PM

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Here’s the newest article from Cliff “Why isn’t Seattle literally Fresno” Mass, regarding rain. What a surprise.

https://cliffmass.bl...in-and.html?m=0

 

I mean, he did say it's been the nicest summer in years...  :o

 

Kinda silly to post those long range precip maps and act like they're meaningful, though. 


Low. Solar.


#106
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2019 - 01:29 PM

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EPS shows the ULL just a hair closer to us early next week, compared to the operational. Also in good agreement on the late week trough.

#107
GHweatherChris

Posted 01 August 2019 - 01:31 PM

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Everyones opinions are wrong.

#108
Deweydog

Posted 01 August 2019 - 01:31 PM

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Maybe the poor persecuted heat lovers will catch another break. Tim will tell!


Or maybe the weather is gonna do whatever the hell it wants.

Your confrontational scenario is far more likely and enjoyable though...
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#109
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 August 2019 - 01:34 PM

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I don't think paying out of state tuition is ever worth it. 

 

I am a college grad, but admittedly the cost of college rises every year, while the value of a degree continues to decline. If you do not have a chosen career you are passionate about, then spend as little money as possible. These days you can end up getting a better job/making more money, by going to a trade school and spending a fraction of what college costs. 


  • Chewbacca Defense likes this

Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#110
Timmy_Supercell

Posted 01 August 2019 - 01:37 PM

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August looking potentially just as mild as July was here in the long run. Even if there is 1 moderate heatwave in the mix, this shouldn't be a hot month.


Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

 

2010-2011 - 58.20" (161%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 16.70" (46%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
 
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019-2020 - 10.50"
 
Nov '19 - 06.50" (163%)
Dec '19 - 04.00"
Jan '20 -
Feb '20 -
Mar '20 -
Apr '20 -
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 14
04/02, 04/19, 05/28, 05/31, 06/01
06/12, 06/28, 07/14, 08/09, 08/10
08/28, 09/05, 09/15, 09/16
Hailstorms: 05/28 (1/4")
Severe Wind: 0
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 11 (2017), 12 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12 T'storm Days
Severe T'storms: 5 (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 


#111
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2019 - 01:38 PM

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Or maybe the weather is gonna do whatever the hell it wants.
Your confrontational scenario is far more likely and enjoyable though...


Oooh, you got a like! Keep up the good work.
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#112
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2019 - 01:43 PM

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Yes, due to the first couple weeks mainly. Never disputed that.

 

What I was disputing was Tim's claims that it was a solid month of cloudiness/rain for all of King County. The stats for places like SEA argue otherwise. His backyard? Sure, I believe it.

 

 

It was not a solid month of cloudiness/rain here either.     But close to it.    A week or two straight of crap is par for the course here in the summer.   Not a month.  It was quite unusual even for this area.   

 

You do realize that even the highest peaks of the Cascades get a decent amount of sun in the summer.   Even Mount Rainier is visible and in the sun frequently in the summer.    You guys act like I live at 12,000 feet in northern Alaska or in Siberia somewhere.   :rolleyes:



#113
Deweydog

Posted 01 August 2019 - 01:47 PM

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Oooh, you got a like! Keep up the good work.


I brought you back a box of chocolate covered macadamia nuts!

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#114
Omegaraptor

Posted 01 August 2019 - 01:48 PM

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~2 months until active weather season starts, ~3.5 until rainy season starts.
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No rain here until Hour 258.

#115
Omegaraptor

Posted 01 August 2019 - 01:50 PM

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It was not a solid month of cloudiness/rain here either. But close to it. A week or two straight of crap is par for the course here in the summer. Not a month. It was quite unusual even for this area.

You do realize that even the highest peaks of the Cascades get a decent amount of sun in the summer. Even Mount Rainier is visible and in the sun frequently in the summer. You guys act like I live at 12,000 feet in northern Alaska or in Siberia somewhere. :rolleyes:


It’s been mostly sunny since mid-July. You dug up the dead horse’s rotting corpse and are continuing to beat it. If you’ve been longing for sun, just enjoy it now.
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No rain here until Hour 258.

#116
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2019 - 01:51 PM

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I brought you back a box of chocolate covered macadamia nuts!


F*ck you, person I’m trying to frame as a victim because your preferences fit mine!

(I like macadamias too, I got your back)

#117
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 August 2019 - 01:55 PM

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18z looks pretty similar with precip tomorrow morning. Maybe slightly less but not by much. Currently 78 here.

#118
Deweydog

Posted 01 August 2019 - 01:59 PM

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F*ck you, person I’m trying to frame as a victim because your preferences fit mine!

(I like macadamias too, I got your back)


https://m.youtube.co...h?v=bF9KY3AfuaE

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#119
Front Ranger

Posted 01 August 2019 - 01:59 PM

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I don't think paying out of state tuition is ever worth it. 

 

I am a college grad, but admittedly the cost of college rises every year, while the value of a degree continues to decline. If you do not have a chosen career you are passionate about, then spend as little money as possible. These days you can end up getting a better job/making more money, by going to a trade school and spending a fraction of what college costs. 

 

I mostly agree. A lot of it comes down to what career you choose to pursue. A degree definitely is still needed for some, and others it can make it much easier to get your foot in the door.

 

But there are many ways to have a good career without a degree, as you said.


Low. Solar.


#120
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2019 - 02:01 PM

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It’s been mostly sunny since mid-July. You dug up the dead horse’s rotting corpse and are continuing to beat it.

 

I did not even think about it today... until Andrew decided to be a flamethrowing d*ck when he woke up.   Cursing out normal summer weather and anyone who wants to ever see the sun.   :lol:

 

th.jpg



#121
Omegaraptor

Posted 01 August 2019 - 02:02 PM

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I did not even think about it today... Andrew decided to be a flamethrowing d*ck today.   Cursing out normal summer weather and anyone who wants to ever see the sun.   :lol:
 
th.jpg


It’s just his opinion. Who cares?
No rain here until Hour 258.

#122
Front Ranger

Posted 01 August 2019 - 02:03 PM

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It was not a solid month of cloudiness/rain here either.     But close to it.    A week or two straight of crap is par for the course here in the summer.   Not a month.  It was quite unusual even for this area.   

 

You do realize that even the highest peaks of the Cascades get a decent amount of sun in the summer.   Even Mount Rainier is visible and in the sun frequently in the summer.    You guys act like I live at 12,000 feet in northern Alaska or in Siberia somewhere.   :rolleyes:

 

Sure. And you'd think it would be pretty easy for you to acknowledge your microclimate will often be cloudier/wetter than other places in King County, sometimes for extended periods.

 

That was clearly the case from mid June to mid July. Even though, YES, it was definitely an unusually cloudy first couple weeks of July for the whole area.


Low. Solar.


#123
Omegaraptor

Posted 01 August 2019 - 02:06 PM

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Sure. And you'd think it would be pretty easy for you to acknowledge your microclimate will often be cloudier/wetter than other places in King County, sometimes for extended periods.
 
That was clearly the case from mid June to mid July. Even though, YES, it was definitely an unusually cloudy first couple weeks of July for the whole area.


Dreariness index.

North Bend is in the foothills. Not the same as the lowlands.
No rain here until Hour 258.

#124
Deweydog

Posted 01 August 2019 - 02:06 PM

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It’s been a really nice summer.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#125
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2019 - 02:06 PM

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Sure. And you'd think it would be pretty easy for you to acknowledge your microclimate will often be cloudier/wetter than other places in King County, sometimes for extended periods.

 

That was clearly the case from mid June to mid July. Even though, YES, it was definitely an unusually cloudy first couple weeks of July for the whole area.

 

 

I acknowledge that ALL the time.     

 

And it was bad EVEN FOR MY AREA.    How many times do we have to discuss this?    :rolleyes:



#126
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 August 2019 - 02:07 PM

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Already close to 2” of rain out on the west coast of the island today.
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#127
Omegaraptor

Posted 01 August 2019 - 02:09 PM

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I acknowledge that ALL the time.     
 
And it was bad EVEN FOR MY AREA.    How many times do we have to discuss this?    :rolleyes:


Sometimes it’s going to be cloudier than normal. For example, late June and early July.

Sometimes, it’s also going to be sunnier than normal. For example, January, March, second half of April, May, and most of June.
No rain here until Hour 258.

#128
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2019 - 02:10 PM

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Dreariness index.

North Bend is in the foothills. Not the same as the lowlands.

 

No sh*t.



#129
1000'NorthBend

Posted 01 August 2019 - 02:12 PM

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Hope this isn't too in the weeds. Does anyone have a resource they can point me towards that lays out the typically used definitions of "normal" by the NWS? For instance, I've noticed that for snowpack they typically use the previous 30 years to define "normal" (aka last year's snowpack was __% of normal) (see attached). Although sometimes I feel like I've seen 20 years? Then for precip and temp, I'm not really clear if normal is defined as the furthest back that data goes (e.g. 19XX - Present) or if it's a set span of time for all regions like snowpack. 

 

If anyone knows of any papers that cover a discussion of what is the appropriate use of "normal" for certain data (precip, temp, snowpack, etc.), I'd be interested. For instance, if you defined "normal" as a 30-year average for snowpack, than a few years of very below average snowpack would drastically reduce "normal" where the "normal" from four years ago would be much higher than the new "normal". The purpose of all these questions is whether NWS' evaluation of increased temps or decreased snowpack is dampened by the changing definition of "normal".  :blink: Re-reading this I might seem a little unclear, but it's the best I've got. 

 

 

Attached Files



#130
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2019 - 02:14 PM

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Sometimes it’s going to be cloudier than normal. For example, late June and early July.

Sometimes, it’s also going to be sunnier than normal. For example, January, March, second half of April, May, and most of June.

 

 

No sh*t.

 

And I said the timing sucked.     People complain here.   You are already an expert!  



#131
Timmy_Supercell

Posted 01 August 2019 - 02:15 PM

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Doesn't sound entirely convincing yet, but this is the first time in 2019 I've seen any Medford AFD mention a t'storm outbreak.

It's not all that rare in August for these to materialize, something to watch I guess.

 

qMBz1wd.png


Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

 

2010-2011 - 58.20" (161%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 16.70" (46%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
 
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019-2020 - 10.50"
 
Nov '19 - 06.50" (163%)
Dec '19 - 04.00"
Jan '20 -
Feb '20 -
Mar '20 -
Apr '20 -
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 14
04/02, 04/19, 05/28, 05/31, 06/01
06/12, 06/28, 07/14, 08/09, 08/10
08/28, 09/05, 09/15, 09/16
Hailstorms: 05/28 (1/4")
Severe Wind: 0
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 11 (2017), 12 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12 T'storm Days
Severe T'storms: 5 (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 


#132
GHweatherChris

Posted 01 August 2019 - 02:19 PM

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It was not a solid month of cloudiness/rain here either. But close to it. A week or two straight of crap is par for the course here in the summer. Not a month. It was quite unusual even for this area.

You do realize that even the highest peaks of the Cascades get a decent amount of sun in the summer. Even Mount Rainier is visible and in the sun frequently in the summer. You guys act like I live at 12,000 feet in northern Alaska or in Siberia somewhere. :rolleyes:


So now it wasnt a whole month as you have repeated over and over? I am so tired of the lies, it was either a whole month or it wasn't, get with it Tim
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#133
MossMan

Posted 01 August 2019 - 02:22 PM

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Been chilly in Wenatchee!

Attached Files



#134
Omegaraptor

Posted 01 August 2019 - 02:24 PM

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Been chilly in Wenatchee!

 

Pretty impressive considering that 88 is their average July high.


No rain here until Hour 258.

#135
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2019 - 02:31 PM

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It’s been a really nice summer.


Agreed!
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#136
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2019 - 02:32 PM

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Looks like 90 is a lock for PDX today.

#137
CulverJosh

Posted 01 August 2019 - 02:33 PM

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I don't think paying out of state tuition is ever worth it.

I am a college grad, but admittedly the cost of college rises every year, while the value of a degree continues to decline. If you do not have a chosen career you are passionate about, then spend as little money as possible. These days you can end up getting a better job/making more money, by going to a trade school and spending a fraction of what college costs.

Exactly!! College, especially universities, are nothing but snobby indoctrination societies.

Give me a bucket of beer, a fishing pole, and a swiss army knife......I will figure it out!!!


#138
Deweydog

Posted 01 August 2019 - 02:37 PM

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Agreed!


F*ck you, f*ck wad.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#139
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2019 - 02:41 PM

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F*ck you, f*ck wad.


I need a Gollum meme too.
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#140
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 August 2019 - 02:42 PM

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18z only shows warm days tomorrow and Monday/Tuesday. Rain on and off in the Wednesday-Saturday time frame with cooler temps. We will see how much the models flip back in forth about the rain chances for next week.

#141
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2019 - 02:42 PM

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The last 2 weeks have been close to summer perfection here.


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#142
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 August 2019 - 02:48 PM

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Already close to 2” of rain out on the west coast of the island today.

pretty decent totals for early August. Should be some good totals out on the Olympic Peninsula tomorrow morning too.

#143
Omegaraptor

Posted 01 August 2019 - 02:52 PM

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88 at both PDX and HIO.


No rain here until Hour 258.

#144
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 August 2019 - 02:56 PM

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81 here in Tacoma at 4pm. 10th 80+ day of the year and the 8th of the summer.

#145
Front Ranger

Posted 01 August 2019 - 03:05 PM

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I acknowledge that ALL the time.     

 

And it was bad EVEN FOR MY AREA.    How many times do we have to discuss this?    :rolleyes:

 

You characterized it as a month straight of extreme cloudiness for the whole area. It was not.


Low. Solar.


#146
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2019 - 03:07 PM

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85 and sunny here.

 

The sun never shines here... so this is a pleasant surprise.    It normally is cloudy and raining on 100% of the days.    Even when its 95 degrees in Seattle... its usually in the 40s and raining here.   Crazy microclimate.



#147
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2019 - 03:08 PM

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You characterized it as a month straight of extreme cloudiness for the whole area. It was not.

 

 

Oddly enough... I also praised a couple nice weekends in that period.   And said on 7/11 that it was just about the most perfect summer day possible.

 

It was an unusually cloudy month overall.    That is all.   IT WAS.

 

Lets keep discussing it though.   I am sure it will change!



#148
Front Ranger

Posted 01 August 2019 - 03:11 PM

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81 here in Tacoma at 4pm. 10th 80+ day of the year and the 8th of the summer.

 

Probably just slightly below long term averages.

 

Long way to go before we can call this an "average" summer, though...


Low. Solar.


#149
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 August 2019 - 03:13 PM

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PDX heading for 90.


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#150
Front Ranger

Posted 01 August 2019 - 03:14 PM

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Oddly enough... I also praised a couple nice weekends in that period.   And said on 7/11 that it was just about the most perfect summer day possible.

 

It was an unusually cloudy month overall.    That is all.   IT WAS.

 

There you go. FOR YOU. That's not all you said before. I simply set the record straight - SEA's stats did not reflect a month straight of mainly cloudy weather. 

 

That is all.  :)


Low. Solar.