June (July) 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Jesse]

That’s crazy how different our locations are. Ive had some years where we only got to 80 like 10 times. Only hit 80 9 times in the whole summer of 2011. Most I’ve ever had was 40 in 2015. Average is around 15-20 it seems...last year had 14.

Yeah, pretty sure I live in a small, unusually hot microclimate. Most of the NW averages 2-3 80 degree days a summer to this point.

[TT-SEA]

The Snoqualmie Falls station has had 12 days at or above 80 so far this year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don’t really pay much attention to 80+ days in the Willamette Valley. Salem s average high peaks at 85 so a high of 80 at the end of July is well below average. Our average high peaks at 78, in an average year we probably see around 30-40 80+ days in an average year and about 5 90+ days. I believe Silver Falls has hit 100 a total of 7 times since 1938 with 102 in August 1972 being the all time high.

[TacomaWaWx]

Yeah, pretty sure I live in a small, unusually hot microclimate. Most of the NW averages 2-3 80 degree days a summer to this point.

It gets pretty hot down at TWLs house in Eugene pretty often it seems...could be worse!

[Winterdog]

57F with drizzle here. I’ve had 9 80+ days this year. Warmup coming soon. Drizzle to sizzle!

[Jesse]

It gets pretty hot down at TWLs house in Eugene pretty often it seems...could be worse!

Well yeah, he lives in/on Silent Hill.

[Phil]

Word on the street is the 12z GFS is showing wall to wall heat.

That’s what I expected based on Tim’s commentary but it’s actually a troughier run vs 06z.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just looking through some of the summer stats at Silver Falls for the last few summers. Looks like the warmest observed temps in the 2010s were 96's in August 2017 and July 2015. 

 

5 90+ days in July 2015 and August 2017. 

 

10 90+ days in 2017

7   90+ days in 2015

 

Only 2 90+ days in 2018.

 

Going back to the first decade of the 21st Century, we pulled off a 99 in July 2009, and a 95/67 day on 7/22/2006. I have not done a ton of digging, but I would think that is probably the warmest daily mean temp ever recorded up here. 

 

It appears that low of 67 on 7/22/06 is the warmest low on record at Silver Falls, there were a couple warmer lows recorded in 1982, but a lot of the stats from that year are wonky and do not appear legit. 

[TT-SEA]

That’s what I expected based on Tim’s commentary but it’s actually a troughier run vs 06z.

 

 

Really?   That is what you thought?   

 

Everything I said was exactly correct.   It delays the trough compared to the 00Z run... shows some rain on Thursday... and another beautiful weekend after that.   I never even said the word "heat".   And it was only out through day 9 when I posted... which is all that really matters at this point.  

 

Troll boy.  

[Jesse]

Just looking through some of the summer stats at Silver Falls for the last few summers. Looks like the warmest observed temps in the 2010s were 96's in August 2017 and July 2015.

 

5 90+ days in July 2015 and August 2017.

 

10 90+ days in 2017

7 90+ days in 2015

 

Only 2 90+ days in 2018.

 

Going back to the first decade of the 21st Century, we pulled off a 99 in July 2009, and a 95/67 day on 7/22/2006. I have not done a ton of digging, but I would think that is probably the warmest daily mean temp ever recorded up here.

 

It appears that low of 67 on 7/22/06 is the warmest low on record at Silver Falls, there were a couple warmer lows recorded in 1982, but a lot of the stats from that year are wonky and do not appear legit.

Maybe trickle down gummed up the sensor.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty interesting to see actual rain in the models for later next week. Can't think of the last time we had rain the last week of July. This looks cool too. 

 

[Jesse]

Pretty interesting to see actual rain in the models for later next week. Can't think of the last time we had rain the last week of July. This looks cool too.

 

Would really love to see this verify, Andrew.

[Blizzard777]

Pretty interesting to see actual rain in the models for later next week. Can't think of the last time we had rain the last week of July. This looks cool too. 

 

It will fizzle away 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

It gets pretty hot down at TWLs house in Eugene pretty often it seems...could be worse!

7 so far. There have been way worse years.

[Blizzard777]

Ran into these yesterday when I was working on a project. 

Pretty sure I posted these before but what the heck....their dramatic enough to show again! 
Feb 1996 just prior to the Floods! Columbia Gorge 

It was a brutal day to be out taking photos but so worth it!  Winds were howling !!!

Picture with the railroad bridge is on the Sandy River by I-84

The neat ice formation is a road that was 20 feet away from the Columbia ( spray from the wind and waves accumulating). 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

This is a fire danger pattern for eastern WA at this time of year...

 

Red flag warning out there today.

 

[Omegaraptor]

Ran into these yesterday when I was working on a project. 

Pretty sure I posted these before but what the heck....their dramatic enough to show again! 

Feb 1996 just prior to the Floods! Columbia Gorge 

It was a brutal day to be out taking photos but so worth it!  Winds were howling !!!

Picture with the railroad bridge is on the Sandy River by I-84

The neat ice formation is a road that was 20 feet away from the Columbia ( spray from the wind and waves accumulating).

 

Great pictures. And 1995-96 is actually a decent analog for the upcoming winter from an ENSO/QBO/solar perspective...

[Blizzard777]

Great pictures. And 1995-96 is actually a decent analog for the upcoming winter from an ENSO/QBO/solar perspective...

it’s a sign! 

[Jesse]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Great pictures. And 1995-96 is actually a decent analog for the upcoming winter from an ENSO/QBO/solar perspective...

 

Overall that was not really a cold winter, but it was an incredibly active winter. I can see something similar verifying. 

[Jesse]

12z GFS ensembles. Not a fan of those few members that bump us back up to +20c later next week. Definitely feels like a situation where the heat could last longer than predicted as the trough stalls offshore, though. Especially given that we are now in just about the warmest time of year climo wise.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

View along our street this morning. The grass is still green and I have not even watered it. Wish it would stop raining every gosh darn day!

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z GFS ensembles. Not a fan of those few members that bump us back up to +20c later next week. Definitely feels like a situation where the heat could last longer than predicted as the trough stalls offshore, though. Especially given that we are now in just about the warmest time of year climo wise.

 

AAA8266A-D18D-4B54-AEF6-382AA77E70C1.png

 

You can be so negative. 

[Jesse]

You can be so negative.

Winter cancel?

[Jesse]

12z GFS ensembles. Not a fan of those few members that bump us back up to +20c later next week. Definitely feels like a situation where the heat could last longer than predicted as the trough stalls offshore, though. Especially given that we are now in just about the warmest time of year climo wise.

AAA8266A-D18D-4B54-AEF6-382AA77E70C1.png

That said, there is a growing agreement on a troughy, potentially wet? period to end the month. That would be so nice.

[Jesse]

Here is your positive spin for the day Andrew. 12Z Euro looks quicker with the cool down on Tuesday compared to previous runs.

[TT-SEA]

You can be so negative.

Ironic coming from you.

[Omegaraptor]

Ironic coming from you.

We are reporting and talking about the weather. Why try to start a preference war?

[GobBluth]

Euro is setting next week up as a close facsimile to this week.

[Jesse]

Euro is setting next week up as a close facsimile to this week.

 

Timing wise, indeed. But hotter on the hot days....and hopefully wetter on the cool days.

[TT-SEA]

We are reporting and talking about the weather. Why try to start a preference war?

 

 

Preference war?    That post has nothing to do with preferences.

 

Andrew was calling out Jesse for being negative regarding a factual post about the 12Z GEFS... when Andrew has been called out many times by Jesse for being overly-negative.    Ironic.

[Jesse]

We are reporting and talking about the weather. Why try to start a preference war?

 

Some are happiest spending most of their time here talking about other people (and their preferences) as opposed to talking about the weather.

[Kayla]

11 80+ days out here so far this year and we should add quite a few more next week. Still no 90+ days though.

 

Only a few more weeks before it starts to get pretty tough to achieve 80+ out here.

[Deweydog]

[MossMan]

Pretty interesting to see actual rain in the models for later next week. Can't think of the last time we had rain the last week of July. This looks cool too.

 

Contrary to what some think...I would be fine with a good soaker after the mini warm spell coming up.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Five months until CHRISTMAS EVE!!!

 

Hallmark Channel can't wait!

[TT-SEA]

I have not said anything about anyone's preferences.    And don't care.  

[Deweydog]

[TT-SEA]

Contrary to what some think...I would be fine with a good soaker after the mini warm spell coming up.

 

I agree... some rain at least once a week is much preferred.  

[TT-SEA]

Congrats!!

 

 

Not sure how my comment about downer Andrew calling out Jesse for being a downer has anything to do with preferences.