June (July) 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[GobBluth]

I’m still taking the under.

Under on Monday, over Tuesday thru Thursday

[Deweydog]

I was over under and under was over done.

[Jesse]

Under on Monday, over Tuesday thru Thursday

Euro says nah. More onshore flow later next week.

[Deweydog]

Probably the hotttest Euro run I’ve ever seen.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I’m still taking the under.

Will be close. If PDX doesn't get there, maybe another location around the area. Just for fun I'll go with 101/100 for PDX, it'll be hot regardless. I'll be out on the Coast tomorrow so I'll miss one of the days.

[Blizzard777]

Your front loaded summer’s load shifted during flight to a fake vacation.

 

I too doubt we touch 100 either day but it’s a toss up.

Daughter and grandson going to attempt cooking a cookie in whatever heat you do get down south 

i will report how it goes and taste....I’m assuming gooey and moist 

[Blizzard777]

Some theorize they will grow into giant beanstalks with giants living at the top.

we shall send Dead animal Dave to investigate!!! 

[GobBluth]

It's still weird how progressive the ridge looks, as hot as it gets. There's literally no amplification.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Phil have you locked in on any analogs for the coming fall/winter?

 

49-50, 68-69, 08-09 (150 miles south), 13-14

[Phil]

It's still weird how progressive the ridge looks, as hot as it gets. There's literally no amplification.

The momentum budget doesn’t favor the type of amplification you’re thinking of (N/NE Pacific trough closing off with ridging building over the West). I get that’s a typical mid/late summer progression, especially recently, but usually the in-situ boundary conditions are what allow it to occur that way.

 

Sort of fluky that ridge is even there to begin with. If hurricane Douglas hadn’t developed it might not be present in any substantial fashion.

[Timmy Supercell]

Cicadas buzzing again today, with a light WNW breeze.

 

There hasn't been one day this entire summer that had completely calm, still conditions.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I'll "Price is Right" it and go with Sun 98F and Mon 97F here.

[Phil]

Phil have you locked in on any analogs for the coming fall/winter?

Not yet. Won’t have much idea until late September at earliest. Uncertainty rises upon the termination of ASM season, given the large quantity of heat present in the IPWP that could change the low pass structure significantly.

 

Also the QBO is a disorganized mess..looks like we’re entering the downwelling westerly shear phase early, with few if any easterly anomalies remaining at/below 50mb come DJF.

 

Also need to see how geomagnetic activity evolves from mid-September to mid-November..though it’s probably going to be quieter this year assuming a typical solar minimum transit re: charged particle fluxes.

 

Analog pools for ENSO/Smin/QBO extrapolation are still mostly useless because the SSTA/OHC structure and atmospheric circulation aren’t spatially synchronized right now.

[FroYoBro]

It’s not cold out anymore.

[Timmy Supercell]

It’s not cold out anymore.

 

If it's not

[Winterdog]

Seems to get a lot colder over there at night; there hasn't been a sub-50F low here since June 14th and even then just barely at 49F.

Our property is in a small valley with very little wind so we do well with overnight lows.

[Phil]

That’s a monstrous NE-Canada ridge on the LR euro. Sort of reminiscent of the 2010/11 period (as is the IO standing wave). Who knows, maybe that’ll be a winter analog.

 

Of course the euro also yanks the rug on any real cooldown out here. Can’t get invested..this hobby is brutal.

[El_Nina]

Had a low of 46 here this morning. Already up to 74 so 80 should be achieved very easily. I really hate this season anymore and hope fall can start in August this year with some legitimate rains. But in reality it'll probably be hotter than this month and actually continue the string of ridiculously warm and dry summers. 

[TT-SEA]

Had a low of 46 here this morning. Already up to 74 so 80 should be achieved very easily. I really hate this season anymore and hope fall can start in August this year with some legitimate rains. But in reality it'll probably be hotter than this month and actually continue the string of ridiculously warm and dry summers. 

 

 

Thought you moving to Florida where you don't have to worry about our annoying pleasant summers?  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Had a low of 46 here this morning. Already up to 74 so 80 should be achieved very easily. I really hate this season anymore and hope fall can start in August this year with some legitimate rains. But in reality it'll probably be hotter than this month and actually continue the string of ridiculously warm and dry summers.

Yeah summer used to be my favorite season, but has regressed to #3. Some may be surprised to know my least favorite season is winter.

[Deweydog]

Yeah summer used to be my favorite season, but has regressed to #3. Some may be surprised to know my least favorite season is winter.

1. Fall

2. Winter

3. Summer

4. Spring

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That’s a monstrous NE-Canada ridge on the LR euro. Sort of reminiscent of the 2010/11 period (as is the IO standing wave). Who knows, maybe that’ll be a winter analog.

 

Of course the euro also yanks the rug on any real cooldown out here. Can’t get invested..this hobby is brutal.

That was a really solid winter above 1000’ down here. Not amazing for PDX and the valley. I hear it was really good for Seattle though.

[Phil]

1. Fall

2. Winter

3. Summer

4. Spring

1. Winter

2. Spring

3. Fall

.

.

784. Covid-19

.

.

♾: Summer

[El_Nina]

Thought you moving to Florida where you don't have to worry about our annoying pleasant summers?

The weather is always exciting there no matter what time of year. And for some reason the humidity doesn't bother me at all, I actually kind of like having some texture in the air.

[Omegaraptor]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

49-50, 68-69, 08-09 (150 miles south), 13-14

Little Ice Age.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Little Ice Age.

Ironically 13-14 kind of sucked at the higher elevations.

[Jbolin]

I was over under and under was over done.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IC7pZSd8iRg

[Omegaraptor]

Time to get into cross country skiing.

I’ll probably figure out some way to make it work. I do ski racing for school and the future of that is uncertain but I’ll have to find a way to go skiing at least a few times. If not that, then probably snowshoeing.

[BLI snowman]

I’ll probably figure out some way to make it work. I do ski racing for school and the future of that is uncertain but I’ll have to find a way to go skiing at least a few times. If not that, then probably snowshoeing.

 

I'd be surprised if the resorts close off this winter, especially with our looming 1000" base at Meadows. Skiing is a pretty socially distanced activity.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I'd be surprised if the resorts close off this winter, especially with our looming 1000" base at Meadows. Skiing is a pretty socially distanced activity.

 

Not to mention masks are common.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Ironically 13-14 kind of sucked at the higher elevations.

 

Yeah it was great for the lowlands tho, and I think several CCG events, including the early Feb, 2014 event.

[TT-SEA]

1. Winter

2. Spring

3. Fall

.

.

784. Covid-19

.

.

♾: Summer

[Omegaraptor]

Hanna has intensified into a Cat 1 hurricane and has officially made landfall on the south Texas coast.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Hanna has intensified into a Cat 1 hurricane and has officially made landfall on the south Texas coast.

Almost made it up to category 2. I'm impressed how fast it strengthened.

 

"Hurricane #Hanna made landfall on Padre Island, Texas at 5 PM CDT with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph."

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1287147118847643649

[Omegaraptor]

Almost made it up to category 2. I'm impressed how fast it strengthened.

"Hurricane #Hanna made landfall on Padre Island, Texas at 5 PM CDT with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph."https://mobile.twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1287147118847643649

Here’s Hurricane Douglas in the Pacific. Doesn’t look so big when it’s in the middle of the vast ocean, but when you realize it’s almost as big as Arizona...

 

[Kayla]

[Phil]

Almost made it up to category 2. I'm impressed how fast it strengthened.

 

"Hurricane #Hanna made landfall on Padre Island, Texas at 5 PM CDT with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph."

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1287147118847643649

Thinking the next one (Isaias) could be a biggie.

 

If nothing else, simply because half of all “I-named” storms have been retired since the turn of the century.

 

Iris

Isadore

Isabel

Ivan

Ike

Igor

Irene

Ingrid

Irma

[jakeinthevalley]

Just got back from a morning fishing/crabbing trip out of Pacific City.

 

51f when I left Salem at 3am. Got down to 49f.

 

Amazed that the water off PC was in the upper 40's/lower 50's. No blob there