January 2015 Observations for the Pacific Northwest

[Jesse]

Yeah, pretty obvious that this won't be a good inversion pattern. Our inversion will be soupy and mixed out. We'll still see a lot of 55-60 temps in the valleys, with high dewpoints and warm nights. Getting a moist warm front going into a ridge pattern is really ideal for optimizing warmth.

Yup. 55 DP 53 at PDX right now. Very soupy for a "dry" pattern. It feels like we have had so many different variations of this type of setup, in all seasons, over the last 11 months or so. One warm, unusually humid airmass after another.

[Jesse]

Thank you Fred.

[snow_wizard]

Yup. 55 DP 53 at PDX right now. Very soupy for a "dry" pattern. It feels like we have had so many different variations of this type of setup, in all seasons, over the last 11 months or so. One warm, unusually humid airmass after another.

The ECMWF shows 850s dropping to 0C at day 4 and then a ridge with weak offshore flow after that. I think at least part of the week will get pretty chilly with an inversion. We'll see.

[snow_wizard]

I am unquestionably jealous of NE with the pattern being shown on the latest Euro. Maybe our time will come one of these days.

[Deweydog]

Up to 59 in a basically unmixed air mass in Salem. That's pretty stout.

[wx_statman]

Up to 59 in a basically unmixed air mass in Salem. That's pretty stout.

 

A sunny 59/46 so far in Salem. Not going to see that every January.

[Deweydog]

A sunny 59/46 so far in Salem. Not going to see that every January.

Should land on 62 or so.

[wx_statman]

It seriously feels like summer out there. I'm standing on my south facing balcony right now. I can almost convince myself its June. Sunny and 60-ish.

[Jesse]

The ECMWF shows 850s dropping to 0C at day 4 and then a ridge with weak offshore flow after that. I think at least part of the week will get pretty chilly with an inversion. We'll see.

 

I wouldn't rule it out. The next few days definitely look toasty, though.

[ShawniganLake]

It seriously feels like summer out there. I'm standing on my south facing balcony right now. I can almost convince myself its June. Sunny and 60-ish.

I would take sunny and 60ish every day of the week in June. 

[ShawniganLake]

I personally like reading Phi's stuff here.   Just because he doesn't actually live here does not make the information any less relevant--even if it's over my head at times.  His posts provide information about meteorology I'm not well-informed about.  And the fact that he may have not hit the nail on the head does not make the information any less relevant here.  Meteorology is an area of science that is not completely understood.

 

I wish people would give him (and others) a break.  If they don't like his posts, there is an ignore button.  But for some reason, the maturity level on this forum does not rise above the frey when it needs to.

 

Whenever I've asked him a question, he's always answered it--but that could be because I'm not generally viewed as an a** here (at least, that's what I think).  At any rate, I would prefer a bit of tolorance.  His stuff is interesting--even if I don't have the understanding level I wish I had--and so is Big Mack's regarding the MJO.

I agree with this.  Not sure how a short post about an east coast storm on a weather forum is any less relevant than lots of other posts on the forum.  If you aren't interested, skip over and move on. 

[Front Ranger]

-

As I'd suggested yesterday, at this point Alaska is appearing [finally] to be looking like more of a main focus-point where considering more primary cold's main path-steering more northward.  @

 

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc con.php?image=na&inv=0&t=cur

 

http://weather.unisys.com/upper air/ua hem.php?plot=n5&inv=0&t=cur

http://weather.unisys.com/upper air/ua hem.php?plot=n8&inv=0&t=cur

 

DISCLAIMER: This post is not about the PNW.

 

Yeah, looks like Fairbanks is headed below -40. That's different.

[Deweydog]

62 at Troutdale.

[Front Ranger]

It seriously feels like summer out there. I'm standing on my south facing balcony right now. I can almost convince myself its June. Sunny and 60-ish.

 

I'm just being an a**, but sunny and 60 on a June afternoon would be pretty chilly.

[wx_statman]

60 at PDX and 62 at Troutdale under mostly sunny skies.

 

June.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At this point I have given up and am just working under the assumption that we are going to be torching until further notice.

[BLI snowman]

I'm just being an a**, but sunny and 60 on a June afternoon would be pretty chilly.

 

1955! -PDO! Bill Haley & The Comets!

[BLI snowman]

At this point I have given up and am just working under the assumption that we are going to be torching until further notice.

 

Early February does look like a better inversion pattern. Just in time for inversion season to end.

[wx_statman]

77 in Redding. 62 in Eugene.

[Front Ranger]

77 in Redding. 62 in Eugene.

 

OLM, the greatest station known to man, had a low of 50 this morning. Not often you see that in January...especially when it's not a Pineapple Express.

[richard mann]

DISCLAIMER: This post is not about the PNW.

 

Yeah, looks like Fairbanks is headed below -40. That's different.

 

I'm not sure if I understand the disclaimer idea here. What you've said is kind of like saying the PDO isn't I'd think, isn't it. ? .. But yeh, as I view the idea, it's the first decent more primary cold that we seen upstream more NW in quite a while. 

 

— In this case more directly North, or NNW. And with my main thought here above, actually meant more to suggest that we haven't seen much wealth of cold at all from NNW full the way through to WNW this colder season, at all. 

 

.. So and if again, yeh. And also a pattern changer (perhaps possibly.), if "anything" holds on to consolidate better there. 

[Jesse]

You can definitely tell who was not on this forum when Phil first showed up.

 

No doubt.

[Jesse]

65 at EUG, 63 at SLE.

 

Yikes.

[DareDuck]

77 in Redding. 62 in Eugene.

65 in Eug now

 

Edit: Jesse beat me to it.

[Front Ranger]

65 at EUG, 63 at SLE.

 

Yikes.

 

EUG could challenge their January record of 67 from 1975.

 

SLE's record of 68 from 1896 is probably out of reach.

 

The pre-airport Eugene station hit 69 in 1914. Looks like about 68-69 has been the historical max for most long terms stations in the region.

[Deweydog]

It feels seriously fuqued up out here.

 

It's definitely gonna snow in March.

[Jesse]

EUG could challenge their January record of 67 from 1975.

 

SLE's record of 68 from 1896 is probably out of reach.

 

The pre-airport Eugene station hit 69 in 1914. Looks like about 68-69 has been the historical max for most long terms stations in the region.

 

This is after many parts of the Puget Sound region hit mid-upper 60s in December.

 

There has been virtually no extended period of sub-65 temps anywhere in the western lowlands this winter. Probably in pretty rarefied company at this point. And this is after an unprecedentedly warm late summer-fall.

[richard mann]

Add to what I'd had to say with my post above ... in fact I hadn't wanted to tarnish the hope that I might have provided with what I'd pointed to there, with this idea in point of fact connected to it.

 

But I should note perhaps along with what I've said pointed to there, toward my working to make my own current impression of potential more general at this point more clear, ... that with, this new focusing of cold, [that] where otherwise looked at—[and] per my most recent projection more cold air focused posted more—I have broader main cold in general recession mode through the 30th of this month. This with and if more in line with the "hope" idea that I've suggested here, this recession not perhaps necessarily being a bad thing, as with with the recession of cold, it tends to consolidate better.

 

— Please pardon the more colorful and if odd way that I've gone about trying to convey these ideas here above, more addendum.  

[wx_statman]

EUG could challenge their January record of 67 from 1975.

 

SLE's record of 68 from 1896 is probably out of reach.

 

The pre-airport Eugene station hit 69 in 1914. Looks like about 68-69 has been the historical max for most long terms stations in the region.

 

1913-14 was a pretty epic Nino torch. The warm airmass in early January was about as top tier as it gets for what is supposed to be our coldest time of the year. Eugene hit 69 and 67 on the 4th and 5th. Salem hit 64. Downtown Portland was 62/50 on the 5th.

 

Eugene also hit 69 in January 1931. Another Nino classic.

[Deweydog]

The 66 in Redmond seems toasty.

[wx_statman]

EUG could challenge their January record of 67 from 1975.

 

SLE's record of 68 from 1896 is probably out of reach.

 

The pre-airport Eugene station hit 69 in 1914. Looks like about 68-69 has been the historical max for most long terms stations in the region.

 

For what its worth, the EUG record of 67 is shared by 1975 and 2005.

[wx_statman]

The 66 in Redmond seems toasty.

 

One more degree and they'll tie a monthly record.

[wx_statman]

This is after many parts of the Puget Sound region hit mid-upper 60s in December.

 

There has been virtually no extended period of sub-65 temps anywhere in the western lowlands this winter. Probably in pretty rarefied company at this point. And this is after an unprecedentedly warm late summer-fall.

 

1939-40 comes to mind. Not many other examples.

[ShawniganLake]

It feels seriously fuqued up out here.

 

It's definitely gonna snow in March.

CFS agrees.

[Front Ranger]

1939-40 comes to mind. Not many other examples.

 

That winter didn't have an air mass like we saw in November, though. Or even one like late December, I don't believe.

[Front Ranger]

For what its worth, the EUG record of 67 is shared by 1975 and 2005.

 

True. I usually just go with the original, as the WRCC does.

[Jesse]

It feels seriously fuqued up out here.

 

It's definitely gonna snow in March.

 

I would usually be inclined to agree, but my guess right now would be that we keep on torching right through the Spring.

[snow_wizard]

Meanwhile it's very gloomy and 57 here. Amazingly warm for a dead calm and heavy overcast day.

[Deweydog]

I would usually be inclined to agree, but my guess right now would be that we keep on torching right through the Spring.

We won't. A somewhat miserable spring seems inevitable, but hey, we could get lucky.

[Front Ranger]

Looks like Redding airport has set their January record. Of course, their period of record only goes back to 1986. The previous, long term Redding station has a January record of 87 from 1920.