Anti Marine Layer Posted July 14, 2022 Report Share Posted July 14, 2022 10 hours ago, NWbyNW said: San Diego has a fairly constant temp year round, right? Usually in the 60s-70s? A lot of people say it's the perfect climate. Yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 14, 2022 Report Share Posted July 14, 2022 11 hours ago, ShawniganLake said: Oh right. The second half of July will be cold and wet. A summer without huffing wildfire smoke will do you good. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 14, 2022 Report Share Posted July 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: More so than Minneapolis? Definitely... Minneapolis has never seen snow in June and it is extraordinarily rare in September. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 14, 2022 Report Share Posted July 14, 2022 Yikes. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted July 14, 2022 Report Share Posted July 14, 2022 11 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: More so than Minneapolis? Minneapolis doesn't normally see snow in May or September and averages 50" of snowfall compared to 91" in Bozeman. Not really any comparison. 3 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 14, 2022 Report Share Posted July 14, 2022 Strange pattern on the 12Z ECMWF... good for putting out the fires in Alaska though. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted July 14, 2022 Report Share Posted July 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, Phil said: Yikes. Dislike! Although, the 12z models show a bit more NW flow and more 4CH suppression than earlier runs so maybe we'll be spared! 2 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted July 14, 2022 Report Share Posted July 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Strange pattern on the 12Z ECMWF... good for putting out the fires in Alaska though. They're just entering their wet season up there so pretty on par. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted July 14, 2022 Report Share Posted July 14, 2022 65 and sunny at noon very nice day. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 14, 2022 Report Share Posted July 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, Kayla said: They're just entering their wet season up there so pretty on par. True... but that is quite an anomalous trough up there. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted July 14, 2022 Report Share Posted July 14, 2022 Really nice euro run IMO no significant heat the next 10 days and maybe a little precip over the next couple days. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted July 14, 2022 Report Share Posted July 14, 2022 11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: True... but that is quite an anomalous trough up there. Yeah, they were due. 1 Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 14, 2022 Report Share Posted July 14, 2022 75 out here now... not a cloud in the sky. 12Z EPS and control run look increasingly warm as we move through next week and beyond. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 14, 2022 Report Share Posted July 14, 2022 Does not feel like the second half of July will be colder than the first half at this point... 2 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted July 14, 2022 Report Share Posted July 14, 2022 The 3000-mile-wide ridge. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted July 14, 2022 Report Share Posted July 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Does not feel like the second half of July will be colder than the first half at this point... If this is the case, July will end up warmer than normal. I believe as of yesterday July's already running 0.2 warmer than normal. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted July 14, 2022 Report Share Posted July 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Does not feel like the second half of July will be colder than the first half at this point... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted July 14, 2022 Report Share Posted July 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Cloud said: PDX is actually running a +1.6 on the month. EUG at +1.3. However highs are +0.5 and +0.1, respectively. The warm lows are putting in a lot of work. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted July 14, 2022 Report Share Posted July 14, 2022 11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Does not feel like the second half of July will be colder than the first half at this point... I thought it was going to get cooler after the 20th!? End of July is sure looking like it wants to torch right now! Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 14, 2022 Report Share Posted July 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Kayla said: I thought it was going to get cooler after the 20th!? End of July is sure looking like it wants to torch right now! Phil's timing might be off. Or maybe the models are wrong. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted July 14, 2022 Report Share Posted July 14, 2022 14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Phil's timing might be off. Or maybe the models are wrong. But it's the ECMWF Tim, how it could it possibly be wrong? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted July 14, 2022 Report Share Posted July 14, 2022 Cool enough for ya? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 14, 2022 Report Share Posted July 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Kayla said: Dislike! Although, the 12z models show a bit more NW flow and more 4CH suppression than earlier runs so maybe we'll be spared! Yeah and I think that map is relative too. IE: No “excessive heat” risk in Phoenix, when it’s obviously gonna be hot as hell there like always. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 14, 2022 Report Share Posted July 14, 2022 51 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Does not feel like the second half of July will be colder than the first half at this point... I suspect there’ll be pretty substantial changes in the coming days. The MJO re-emerging over the IO isn’t a warm west signal. Guidance often over-emphasizes the westward extent of the 4CH in such cases, producing a warm result. Seen this countless times before. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted July 14, 2022 Report Share Posted July 14, 2022 12 hours ago, JBolin said: It is if you hate weather of any kind. The only interesting weather in San Diego is how pronounced the microclimates are during the summer. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 14, 2022 Report Share Posted July 14, 2022 New ECMWF weeklies... 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 14, 2022 Report Share Posted July 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: New ECMWF weeklies... Yeah that’s gonna bust massively (again). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 14, 2022 Report Share Posted July 14, 2022 This is what the EPS weeklies from 1 month ago were projecting for today, versus what actually happened. Cringe. Have to account for known systemic biases (such as the overheating of the western high terrain) otherwise the information is useless for you. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 14, 2022 Report Share Posted July 14, 2022 EPS weeklies initialized on 6/30 for 7/14-7/21 (upcoming week) versus the current run. Same error, easy to spot. 3 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted July 14, 2022 Report Share Posted July 14, 2022 Idk maybe Phil’s prediction will be right but me personally I don’t feel like late July is gonna be cool. Would love to be wrong tho. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted July 14, 2022 Report Share Posted July 14, 2022 71 after a cool low of 52 this morning very nice out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 14, 2022 Report Share Posted July 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said: Idk maybe Phil’s prediction will be right but me personally I don’t feel like late July is gonna be cool. Would love to be wrong tho. Well “cool” is subjective, lol. It’s true the more favorable tropical forcing (for a cool pattern ) has been pushed back by ~ 4-5 days. For awhile it looked like 7/20 but now it’s more like 7/25, verbatim. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 14, 2022 Report Share Posted July 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Phil said: Well “cool” is subjective, lol. It’s true the more favorable tropical forcing (for a cool pattern ) has been pushed back by ~ 4-5 days. For awhile it looked like 7/20 but now it’s more like 7/25, verbatim. Is the trade wind burst still going strong and will it continue? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 14, 2022 Report Share Posted July 14, 2022 79 out here and only 72 at SEA. Its usually warmer out here on weak onshore flow summer days. This was the prevalent set up for most of July and August last year. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted July 14, 2022 Report Share Posted July 14, 2022 Severe clear and upper 70s. I've already stocked the house with supplies in anticipation of this upcoming trade burst. 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 14, 2022 Report Share Posted July 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Severe clear and upper 70s. I've already stocked the house with supplies in anticipation of this upcoming trade burst. Looks like most of Seattle is warmer than SEA right now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted July 14, 2022 Report Share Posted July 14, 2022 Just now, TT-SEA said: Looks like most of Seattle is warmer than SEA right now. Not uncommon when there are weak westerlies. KSEA is often in the crossfire of the Des Moines notch Sound breeze during days like this. Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWbyNW Posted July 14, 2022 Report Share Posted July 14, 2022 Clear blue skies, sunny. 62F-63F degrees. Very cool day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 14, 2022 Report Share Posted July 14, 2022 42 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Is the trade wind burst still going strong and will it continue? Yes, this is actually the strongest trade burst ever recorded for this time of year. Another big burst seems likely in early/mid August, too. I firmly believe we have a strong La Niña on the way this winter. Or at the very least a high end moderate. 3 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 14, 2022 Report Share Posted July 14, 2022 Just now, Phil said: Yes, this is actually the strongest trade burst ever recorded for this time of year. Another big burst seems likely in early/mid August, too. I firmly believe we have a strong La Niña on the way this winter. Or at the very least a high end moderate. I am just going to trust you on this one. 1 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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