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Starting to see the first signs of high Arctic cooldown on the LR 00z GFS as the sun steadily approaches the horizon over the next couple months. 0C contour slowly and slightly overtakes the sfc map over the Arctic Ocean.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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image.gif

Last night's extended 00z GEFS shows it more strongly...

  • lol 2
  • scream 1
  • Troll 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Starting to see the first signs of high Arctic cooldown on the LR 00z GFS as the sun steadily approaches the horizon over the next couple months. 0C contour slowly and slightly overtakes the sfc map over the Arctic Ocean.

I’m noticing it’s getting darker earlier for sure. We’ve lost about 45 minutes in the last month. 

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22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-65

Coldest min-48

Monthly rainfall-0.04”

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Just now, TacomaWx said:

I’m noticing it’s getting darker earlier for sure. We’ve lost about 45 minutes in the last month. 

Pretty similar rates to this time in 1949

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  • lol 3
  • Snow 1
  • Weenie 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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Friday

image.thumb.png.54736bda0d34224e5c6b979c23a1ce7c.png

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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Saturdayimage.thumb.png.186540eb8067a4d9db078ee9c5459012.png

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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Sunday:

image.thumb.png.d235c5823a6d0426b11a5f141c0ec0ab.png

  • Popcorn 1

Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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Monday:image.thumb.png.cf3ed704f3738175080d6a2408842570.png

The cooldown isn't until Tuesday on this run

Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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The ECMWF is frustrating.  Instead of bringing that open wave inland late this week, it cuts it off and keeps it offshore.  Just that one thing messes up the progression the other models are showing.  A major outlier....at least for now.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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49 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

image.gif

Last night's extended 00z GEFS shows it more strongly...

WTF....it flashes so fast you can't make heads or tails of it.

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  • scream 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Monday:image.thumb.png.cf3ed704f3738175080d6a2408842570.png

The cooldown isn't until Tuesday on this run

Never mind Tuesday is just a break and then the heat comes back on Wednesday

Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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13 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Monday:image.thumb.png.cf3ed704f3738175080d6a2408842570.png

The cooldown isn't until Tuesday on this run

It's a total outlier though.  Even the JMA is the same as all the other models.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, Doiinko said:

Never mind Tuesday is just a break and then the heat comes back on Wednesday

If the EPS sticks to its guns tonight it's not likely to happen.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

If the EPS sticks to its guns tonight it's not likely to happen.

Let's hope so, a cool start to August would be nice

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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EPS says the operational ECMWF is full of it.

  • Popcorn 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

Let's hope so, a cool start to August would be nice

We actually have a shot at very cool.  We shall see.

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  • Weenie 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2022-23 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

WTF....it flashes so fast you can't make heads or tails of it.

That’s because in his previous comment he made a mentioned about 0c advancing in the Arctic circle. That should be the focus of this map and it clearly showed it. 
 

In other words… winter is on its way. :)

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21 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Now even a bigger difference, at 2am Vernonia is down to 56 with Forest Grove still at 76 and Scappoose at 77.

web_metrotemps-5.jpg.d73ebdedcdb91a8e96e1c655cd445447.jpg

I wonder what's making Forest Grove/Scappoose so warm? Downsloping?

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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41 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I wonder what's making Forest Grove/Scappoose so warm? Downsloping?

Possibly, maybe the opposite of cold air damming aka Forest Grove Effect we see in the winter time. This time warmer air seems to be banked up against the east slopes of the Coast Range and West Hills/Tualatin Mountains. Still 75 in Forest Grove and Scappoose but down to 54 now in Vernonia. 🥶 

web_metrotemps-6.jpg.d479010e46163de36942876e1987e84d.jpg

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2 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Possibly, maybe the opposite of cold air damming aka Forest Grove Effect we see in the winter time. This time warmer air seems to be banked up against the east slopes of the Coast Range and West Hills/Tualatin Mountains. Still 75 in Forest Grove and Scappoose but down to 54 now in Vernonia. 🥶 

web_metrotemps-6.jpg.d479010e46163de36942876e1987e84d.jpg

My area seems to be around 68-70 right now from some weather stations there. About the same as PDX.

  • Like 1

Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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What was the GFS on during Jan 2020??

image.thumb.png.bcb59e696f71540a7881e338c8de4d5f.png

Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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  • Longtimer

Operational Euro is still way off on its own with delaying the cool down. But I feel like enough individual runs have shown it that it should be given at least a little weight.
 

321070D2-442C-4A5E-8C28-C4666D04C98D.png

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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North wind kept SEA warmer overnight... got down to 55 in North Bend where its protected from the north wind.

The 00Z ECMWF showed solid marine layer intrusions every morning starting on Wednesday.    And shows the WA coast is stuck in the low clouds the rest of the run after tomorrow.    

There aren't too many really hot days in Seattle that start out with the marine layer this far inland...

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_cloud-8923200.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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This does look similar to last July and August... going to be much warmer in the EPSL than in Seattle this week with weak onshore flow as opposed to offshore flow.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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6 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

WTF....it flashes so fast you can't make heads or tails of it.

Just pay attention to the high Arctic... Look at how the freezing contour overtakes the North Pole and the rest of the Arctic Ocean! A sign of the changing seasons...

  • Like 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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20 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Just pay attention to the high Arctic... Look at how the freezing contour overtakes the North Pole and the rest of the Arctic Ocean! A sign of the changing seasons...

That's what will happen to the entirety of OR and WA next January

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Looks like the smoke is staying south of Eugene for now. 

84FF3125-EB9D-4290-BEF4-45A7BDF4EECC.jpeg

Hopefully persistent onshore flow this week will keep the worst of it well to our south and east.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Looks like the smoke is staying south of Eugene for now. 

84FF3125-EB9D-4290-BEF4-45A7BDF4EECC.jpeg

Also interesting how the GOES West satellite does not show the smoke nearly as well.   I assume its an angle issue with this satellite being right overhead as opposed to looking at the West Coast from more of a side angle above.  

COD-GOES-West-regional-w_northwest.02.20220725.150117-over=map-bars=.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Also interesting how the GOES West satellite does not show the smoke nearly as well.   I assume its an angle issue with this satellite being right overhead as opposed to looking at the West Coast from more of a side angle above.  

COD-GOES-West-regional-w_northwest.02.20220725.150117-over=map-bars=.gif

Yup you can see it much better here

208890960_G17_sector_pnw_GEOCOLOR_24fr_20220725-11212.gif

  • Like 2

22-23 cold season stats

Coldest max-65

Coldest min-48

Monthly rainfall-0.04”

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9 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

image.gif

Last night's extended 00z GEFS shows it more strongly...

Can that be faster? 🤪

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 50
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 8/21, 8/26, 8/29, 8/30, 9/3, 9/4, 9/6

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Another 5 years ago post. The day after those big lightning producers. I was greeted with mammatus. 

One in every 2 t'storms that year produced these. 

20170725-01.jpg

  • Like 7

Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 50
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 8/9
8/10, 8/11, 8/14, 8/21, 8/26, 8/29, 8/30, 9/3, 9/4, 9/6

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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50 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Looks like the smoke is staying south of Eugene for now. 

84FF3125-EB9D-4290-BEF4-45A7BDF4EECC.jpeg

Cue Jaws music...

Screen Shot 2022-07-25 at 9.52.43 AM.png

  • Popcorn 1
  • Sad 5
  • scream 1
  • Sick 3

Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 119.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16"

Highest snow depth: 20"

Coldest high: -5ºF

Coldest low: -25ºF

Number of subzero days: 1

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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47 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Hopefully persistent onshore flow this week will keep the worst of it well to our south and east.

Been pretty lucky out here this summer with only a little aloft smoke drifting in from time to time from the big Moose fire in Idaho.

Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 119.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16"

Highest snow depth: 20"

Coldest high: -5ºF

Coldest low: -25ºF

Number of subzero days: 1

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Just now, Kayla said:

Been pretty lucky out here this summer with only a little aloft smoke drifting in from time to time from the big Moose fire in Idaho.

We will be going through Bozeman on Saturday afternoon or evening.    And again the following Saturday.    

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Just pay attention to the high Arctic... Look at how the freezing contour overtakes the North Pole and the rest of the Arctic Ocean! A sign of the changing seasons...

tbh, I spend way too much time on tidbits running the slider back and fourth this time of year.

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

We will be going through Bozeman on Saturday afternoon or evening.    And again the following Saturday.    

With this pattern, baring any new fire starts you might actually have a smoke free I90 drive once you get east of WA. 

  • Like 1

Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 119.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16"

Highest snow depth: 20"

Coldest high: -5ºF

Coldest low: -25ºF

Number of subzero days: 1

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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