On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

2nd great 18z run in a row.

I would love to see the sexy trough solution for week two verify.  A lot of models are hinting at it.

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I would love to see the sexy trough solution for week two verify.  A lot of models are hinting at it.

I do think a cooldown will follow the warm up.

There’s a lengthy acronym for it.

Edited July 21, 2022 by Deweydog

[TT-SEA]

37 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Let's hope the models are this off for next week on surface temps.  Even the ECMWF was high today.

Weak marine intrusion ahead of a stronger marine intrusion tomorrow.   Not really random.   When I saw the SW wind reach SEA this morning I suspected it might stay around 80 there today.      SEA is up to 79 at 4 p.m.

Currently 85 in North Bend and 84 up here.   Almost always warmer out here on weak onshore flow days.   Last July and August had many days like today.   

Also unlikely to be a model issue next week.   The is a ULL actually spinning right over western WA right now inducing stronger onshore flow.   You can see the spin in mid-level clouds on the satellite. 

   

[Phishy Wx]

 

[NWbyNW]

Some Oregon 10-day forecasts.  Medford is going to be spicy.  Starting Saturday, it is 100F and above for at least a week.  It looks pretty awful honestly.

Eugene will get hot with the peak days being Monday and Wednesday.  Looks like 99F and the possibility of 100F in outlaying areas... or cooler.

All Oregonian's wanting to go someplace cooler, simply head to the coast.  Coos Bay for example will only be 69F at the peak of the heat wave. 

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

 

 

Marquette sounds nicer and nicer every day. Great climate.

[GHweatherChris]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Weak marine intrusion ahead of a stronger marine intrusion tomorrow.   Not really random.   When I saw the SW wind reach SEA this morning I suspected it might stay around 80 there today.      SEA is up to 79 at 4 p.m.

Currently 85 in North Bend and 84 up here.   Almost always warmer out here on weak onshore flow days.   Last July and August had many days like today.   

Also unlikely to be a model issue next week.   The is a ULL actually spinning right over western WA right now inducing stronger onshore flow.   You can see the spin in mid-level clouds on the satellite. 

   

Get him Tim

[Omegaraptor]

9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

Marquette sounds nicer and nicer every day. Great climate.

Wickedly cold climate for being at 46°N latitude. Same annual avg temp as 15 degrees farther north in central Sweden.

[Phil]

11 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

Marquette sounds nicer and nicer every day. Great climate.

This this this.

[NWbyNW]

New EURO for the peak day of the heatwave has lowered to match the GFS more.  It now shows below 100F for Portland at 98F, which is exactly what GFS has been saying for days. It also significantly lowers the heat for the Puget Sound to numbers similar to GFS.  It actually is cooler in Tacoma compared to GFS.  GFS says 96F for Tacoma, but EURO is now at 91F.  Seattle is lower now in EURO than GFS and hotter for the north.  GFS has firmly stood against a hot north.  So EURO is more all over the place currently.  The Canadian model is even lower than both GFS and EURO.  It has Portland at 91F.  I didn't include it's photo below.

 

[Jbolin]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Are you talking about local storm chasing?  In the late 1990s I was living in Woodinville and I chased a ridiculous hail / thunderstorm once.  It was pounding so hard most people on the road pulled over to wait it out.  One of the few cases I can remember where significant hail damage to cars occurred in this area and there was hail induced ground fog afterward.

I remember that lone cell very well, I was driving back from work around 330pm and all of sudden, right at the 124th NE exit in Totem Lake, I had to pull under the canopy of the Shell station there as golf ball sized hail begin pummeling everything in sight.

 

After about 15-20 mins, the hail began to subside and I finally made my way home, needless to say, that was the largest hail I've ever experienced here in W. Wa.

 

I believe this was sometime in July 1997

[GobBluth]

GEFS supports bumping PDX highs over 100.

[TT-SEA]

Garden is out of control.   Can't even see the trellis any more.   The potatoes and tomatoes and cucumbers are massive.  Just unbelievable production right now... similar to last year. 

[TT-SEA]

General rule of thumb... the warm bias GFS output for SEA works great for the EPSL on these weak marine push days which are so common in the summer.  

[MossMan]

59 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

Looks like 33F slop for Randy though with a healthy dose of convergence zone drizzle both before and afterwards.

Already have a little slop going on. 

[snow_wizard]

28 minutes ago, JBolin said:

I remember that lone cell very well, I was driving back from work around 330pm and all of sudden, right at the 124th NE exit in Totem Lake, I had to pull under the canopy of the Shell station there as golf ball sized hail begin pummeling everything in sight.

 

After about 15-20 mins, the hail began to subside and I finally made my way home, needless to say, that was the largest hail I've ever experienced here in W. Wa.

 

I believe this was sometime in July 1997

Sounds about right.  It was stunning for sure.

[TT-SEA]

High of 81 at SEA so far through 5 p.m.

[snow_wizard]

In all seriousness, I can't believe Larry Cosgrove is still going for warm ENSO.  There is absolutely no index or past case I know of that would support it.  We also have the fact that recent years have an almost perfect track record of the warmest SST anoms happening during the N Hem summer.  This year it hasn't even come close to going positive.

[T-Town]

12 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Already have a little slop going on. 

See?  I knew it. No matter the forecast you somehow manage to get snow.  

[Jbolin]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Sounds about right.  It was stunning for sure.

I do recall Steve Pool on the 5pm news stating this lone cell had a top pushing 40K ft.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, JBolin said:

I do recall Steve Pool on the 5pm news stating this lone cell had a top pushing 40K ft.

I think there was some convergence going on that day.  Probably played into it.

[Jbolin]

16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think there was some convergence going on that day.  Probably played into it.

A bit, that was a hot day, like low 90's, it was a lone cell that "blew up" very quickly over N Kitsap/Hansville and drifted SE pretty fast.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

2 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

dude is a climate change denying rube.  blocked me a few years ago on Twitter when I called out his nonsense.  Trump tried to appoint him to lead NOAA I think

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/09/21/noaa-chief-scientist-maue/

Maue serves as the developer of weathermodels.com, a site that displays computer model information using eye-catching graphics to make their simulations accessible to professionals and hobbyists. He was previously an adjunct scholar with the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank that was involved in efforts to question the scientific consensus on human-induced climate change.

Along with Patrick Michaels, a well-known climate change contrarian, Maue penned a 2018 op-ed in the Wall Street Journal challenging the climate change projections made in 1988 by noted former NASA scientist James Hansen, which other researchers, backed up by peer-reviewed studies, have found were prescient.

 

Does this sound like a denier?

Ryan Maeu:  "Extreme weather caused by climate change is the worst crisis humanity faces right now.  #ClimateEmergency"

You have no idea what you are talking about.  Seriously.  He talks about climate change ALL THE TIME.  Doesn't deny it at all.  Might have problems with models that have mostly overpredicted warming and problems with media hype that blames climate change for literally every single storm or hurricane,, but his twitter stream is full of what climate change will mean for society.  

You honestly have no clue about him because you don't read his tweets anymore. 

So you might want to pay attention and actually know what you're talking about before putting your foot in your mouth. 

 

Edited July 22, 2022 by Brian_in_Leavenworth

[T-Town]

I seem to recall some good things happening later in 1985. 

[Cloud]

Guess an airport runway in London couldn’t withstand the extreme heat and melted. Temps reached 40C (104F).

[MWG]

[Cloud]

3 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Super underperformance so far. Did not expect it. I was wrong I guess 🫤

 

3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Pleasant surprise with how cool it is today.  Only 77 at SEA at 3PM.  I wonder if the GFS projection of 87 will bust today? 

As I eluded to this morning… there was a marine push advancement between 8-10 this morning into SODO and BFI with a pretty good breeze going to keep things a touch cooler (I worked at SODO and experienced this). 61-64 vs 69-70 during this same timeframe yesterday. The marine layer cleared out by 11.  
 

Pretty sure that had some affect in keeping things cooler as the day progressed. 

[GHweatherChris]

Mother nature will win no matter what we do, she is in charge.

61 degrees here currently after a high of 74.

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

6 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

I don’t think Bend has ever even seen 5 100+ days in one month before, let alone consecutively.

That’s a gross forecast. But something tells me that statement is wrong 

[Doinko]

2 hours ago, NWbyNW said:

New EURO for the peak day of the heatwave has lowered to match the GFS more.  It now shows below 100F for Portland at 98F, which is exactly what GFS has been saying for days. It also significantly lowers the heat for the Puget Sound to numbers similar to GFS.  It actually is cooler in Tacoma compared to GFS.  GFS says 96F for Tacoma, but EURO is now at 91F.  Seattle is lower now in EURO than GFS and hotter for the north.  GFS has firmly stood against a hot north.  So EURO is more all over the place currently.  The Canadian model is even lower than both GFS and EURO.  It has Portland at 91F.  I didn't include it's photo below.

 

The Euro cooled for Tuesday and Wednesday but then on Friday and Saturday it showed 118+ East of the Cascades. Nice to see the the closer range stuff is cooling though.

[TacomaWx]

80/56 today 80 #7 this year. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, Cloud said:

Guess an airport runway in London couldn’t withstand the extreme heat and melted. Temps reached 40C (104F).

They need to make them like they do in Phoenix.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, T-Town said:

I seem to recall some good things happening later in 1985. 

1985 isn't a bad fit for this pattern coming up.  The very strong surface high over the NE Pacific was present that year just like what are seeing now.  Interestingly summer was in strong contrast to the rest of that very cold year.  1985 was a great example of a year with 4 distinct seasons here.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Mr Marine Layer said:

They need to make them like they do in Phoenix.

Concrete.

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

Already have a little slop going on. 

Where is that?

[Doinko]

Pretty huge difference between the GFS ensemble mean and the Euro ensemble mean at portland. These temps start Sunday for Portland.

ECMWF ensemble mean: 92/98/98/100/99/97/93

GFS ensemble mean: 84/86/88/91/92/91/90

[Tyler Mode]

Marine low clouds making a nice push, even back building off of the Cascades.

https://a.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?vis1km_color+12

[Cascadia_Wx]

43 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Pretty huge difference between the GFS ensemble mean and the Euro ensemble mean at portland. These temps start Sunday for Portland.

ECMWF ensemble mean: 92/98/98/100/99/97/93

GFS ensemble mean: 84/86/88/91/92/91/90

EPS numbers have come down to where the GFS was a day or two ago, and now the GFS is ten degrees under that. 

I still don’t think we are out of the woods as far as the threat of extreme heat with this one goes, though.

[Cascadia_Wx]

84/58 day here. Mostly sunny with some scattered clouds at times. Down to 75 now with a marine push underway. The air feels great out there right now. Will enjoy it while it lasts.

[Meatyorologist]

Cheers friends, had a great 21st (birthday, not just day of month!) today. Hope y'all are well. View at Ivar's was spectacular; and ordered my first drink. Lime basil cocktail. It was pretty good!