On the 7th month of... July PNW 2022 (Preferance Wars)

[Doinko]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Missed that language. I'm a doofus. Yes, this should be around all time July record territory.

Also, 30.4C. Jesus. The numbers that came out of June 2021 are just... wow. Even a year later they shock me more and more.

Yeah it's crazy to think about how anomalous that event was. And this heatwave is pretty major too. If only we can get something like that in the winter...

Unrelated but I was looking through some more historical 850mb temps. Our coldest air masses at the 850mb level since December 2013 at SLE kind of surprised me. They were February 2018 (-10.5), February 2022 (-10.1) and December 2016 (-10.1). February 2022 was actually colder than February 2011 at SLE in terms of 850mb temps.

[Doinko]

8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

What was the previous record in September 1988?

28.3°C I think. Portland hit 105 with that.

[TacomaWx]

So far this morning there’s also not much of a NE wind here…which is why we’re warming up quicker and our temps resemble most of the region currently. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS continues to show a significant cool down by Sunday and Monday.   It has been pretty consistent in that regard despite wildly different ways that it gets there on each run.

[Cascadia_Wx]

GEM keeps temps near 100 for Portland through Sunday now. GFS is still holding on to temps near 90 for that day, but doing a run to run comparison that little shortwave seems to be inching further west with each consecutive run. Might not be long before the GFs jumps on board with simply not ending the heat wave.

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

GEM keeps temps near 100 for Portland through Sunday now. GFS is still holding on to temps near 90 for that day, but doing a run to run comparison that little shortwave seems to be inching further west with each consecutive run. Might not be long before the GFs jumps on board with simply not ending the heat wave.

I hope the end of the heatwave manages some good thunderstorms around the region at least

[Deweydog]

HCS potential starting to gather down in Central CA.

[BLI snowman]

51 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Got to wonder if it’s a global circulation thing that will switch up little at some point or if it’s here to stay. We haven’t really looked back since 2013.

I was the most optimistic about this summer ending up reasonable than I have been in awhile, since for the first time in years the spring strongly resembled something out of our pre-2013 climo, but it seems even that didn’t mean much.

If we're able to at least see a condensed gross season this year, with the late start and ideally a cool finish, then I will consider that a win.

It's practically a guarantee nowadays that we'll completely torch at least one JJAS month and midsummer in particular is getting to be a lost cause. But condensing the season into that window is much preferred to the years with 5-6 months of endless 80-85+ and dry weather. 

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

If we're able to at least see a condensed gross season this year, with the late start and ideally a cool finish, then I will consider that a win.

It's practically a guarantee nowadays that we'll completely torch at least one JJAS month and midsummer in particular is getting to be a lost cause. But condensing the season into that window is much preferred to the years with 5-6 months of endless 80-85+ and dry weather. 

We have rosy memories of 2011 but even that year torched pretty hard in September.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, Eujunga said:

Some 70F+ lows in the foothills, but I managed to make it down to 64, which is cooler than I expected.

Looks like PDX had the warmest valley low at 66.

Scappoose was a -10 for a low compared to Monday with the loss of the northerlies.

[Cascadia_Wx]

8 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

I hope the end of the heatwave manages some good thunderstorms around the region at least

It won’t 

[BLI snowman]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

We have rosy memories of 2011 but even that year torched pretty hard in September.

Yeah, and that was a more classic progression following a cold and/or wet spring like that, with midsummer remaining troughy/cool and then some more extensive ridging holding off until late summer and early fall.

Same thing happened in years like 2012, 1999, 1993, 1991, 1975, 1974 etc. 

This year's progression is a bit different with this big midsummer spike now. Makes me think we're maybe saving ourselves a little relief on the back end of the season now, but who knows. 

Edited July 26, 2022 by BLI snowman

[Meatyorologist]

7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, and that was a more classic progression following a cold and/or wet spring like that, with midsummer remaining troughy/cool and then some more extensive ridging holding off until late summer and early fall.

Same thing happened in years like 2012, 1999, 1993, 1991, 1975, 1974 etc. 

This year's progression is a bit different with this big midsummer spike now. Makes me think we're maybe saving ourselves a little relief on the back end of the season now, but who knows. 

August will be below the 20th century average. Book it. The August shocker.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

20 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

August will be below the 20th century average. Book it. The August shocker.

No way 

[Phishy Wx]

Meh this heatwave ain't all that

 

back in the mid 80s by late next week.  only 3 days 100 or over.  makes last June look like the end of the world (it felt like it)

[jakerepp]

I appreciate the heat wave as it helps me mentally prepare for, and continue to insist that 95 isn't 'that bad' as I prepare to move to Arizona. I don't appreciate it being 80 degrees inside at 7:30 at night.

BTW, here's the progress on our house. Underground plumbing is in and it's all ready for pouring of the foundation. Roof tiles showed up yesterday. Brother in law has sent a lot of videos of distant lightning in the last week. Making me a bit jealous.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Meh this heatwave ain't all that

 

back in the mid 80s by late next week.  only 3 days 100 or over.  makes last June look like the end of the world (it felt like it)

Yeah this heatwave is lame because it’s not as impressive as our most anomalous weather event on record 

[TacomaWx]

Looks like a little smoke aloft has made it as far north as Salem so far today. Dewey’s HCS potential also visible. 

[TacomaWx]

currently 79 here…current temps in the Seattle area. 
BLI-79

PAE-75

BFI-79

SEA-81

Tacoma Narrows-79

OLM-79

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I will say, the amount of dead conifers once you go south of Roseburg is pretty astonishing. They aren’t all dead, but below 1500’ I would say 25-33% of them are. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

currently 79 here…current temps in the Seattle area. 
BLI-79

PAE-75

BFI-79

SEA-81

Tacoma Narrows-79

OLM-79

Crazy to see SEA two degrees warmer than PDX on the hour.

[Phishy Wx]

6 minutes ago, jakerepp said:

I appreciate the heat wave as it helps me mentally prepare for, and continue to insist that 95 isn't 'that bad' as I prepare to move to Arizona. I don't appreciate it being 80 degrees inside at 7:30 at night.

BTW, here's the progress on our house. Underground plumbing is in and it's all ready for pouring of the foundation. Roof tiles showed up yesterday. Brother in law has sent a lot of videos of distant lightning in the last week. Making me a bit jealous.

what are they going to do down there when Lake Mead goes Dead Pool?

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I will say, the amount of dead conifers once you go south of Roseburg is pretty astonishing. They aren’t all dead, but below 1500’ I would say 25-33% of them are. 

Are these recent kills or leftover standing dead trees from the huge 2013-15 Doug fir die off down there?

Regardless, the lowland climate of southern oregon is becoming pretty inhospitable for firs it seems.

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I will say, the amount of dead conifers once you go south of Roseburg is pretty astonishing. They aren’t all dead, but below 1500’ I would say 25-33% of them are. 

I've noticed dead Ponderosa Pines around here in groups that I'm assuming were scolded last summer because they weren't brown until this year.  Ponderosa are decently heat tolerate too.

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Crazy to see SEA two degrees warmer than PDX on the hour.

Temps were 10-15 degrees cooler up here yesterday compared to down in the willamette valley but it’ll probably be a lot closer today. 

[jakerepp]

11 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

what are they going to do down there when Lake Mead goes Dead Pool?

I tend to believe the financial incentive will be far to great for someone to not figure it out. Maybe that's naive of me.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Are these recent kills or leftover standing dead trees from the huge 2013-15 Doug fir die off down there?

Regardless, the lowland climate of southern oregon is becoming pretty inhospitable for firs it seems.

Probably that original die off.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, jakerepp said:

I tend to believe the financial incentive will be far to great for someone to not figure it out. Maybe that's naive of me.

I’ve read they are also doing a lot pumping from the aquifers, they have about 15-20 years worth of water.

[TT-SEA]

Another heat wave showing up on the 12Z Goofus later in the run.

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’ve read they are also doing a lot pumping from the aquifers, they have about 15-20 years worth of water.

going need a string of El Nino's for starters and extreme conservation

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Troutdale officially got to 100 yesterday. Joining McMinnville as the only Metro locations who got to 100.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Got to wonder if it’s a global circulation thing that will switch up little at some point or if it’s here to stay. We haven’t really looked back since 2013.

I was the most optimistic about this summer ending up reasonable than I have been in awhile, since for the first time in years the spring strongly resembled something out of our pre-2013 climo, but it seems even that didn’t mean much.

Starting to think this pattern can be traced back to the deposition of tropical AAM back in May, that subsequently worked its way out of the tropics and through the system. Same goes for the other heatwaves roasting the middle latitudes this summer.

[Phishy Wx]

 

[Phil]

23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I will say, the amount of dead conifers once you go south of Roseburg is pretty astonishing. They aren’t all dead, but below 1500’ I would say 25-33% of them are. 

Tim says they’re acclimated to hot, dry weather. Must be something else.

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

 

To be fair 1983 was after a super niño which was very stormy across the SW US.

Where-as 2022 is a historic 3rd year Niña (and possibly the first time on record that the 3rd Niña will be the strongest in the sequence).

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Tim says they’re acclimated to hot, dry weather. Must be something else.

There’s limits to that. They can’t live in a literal desert.

[Phil]

Speaking of La Niña, check out the subsurface update.  

Upwelling OKW really cranking now.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

6 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

 

And they just found more human remains yesterday.  

https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/26/us/lake-mead-body/index.html

[Phil]

Hmm, the 06z Euro control run finally ditched the slow cooldown idea. I think the operational euro will cave today (can’t believe I’m saying that, lol).

[T-Town]

79 outside and 80 in my office. Pretty sweet. 

[TacomaWx]

9 minutes ago, T-Town said:

79 outside and 80 in my office. Pretty sweet. 

Just hit 80 here…although in the mornings/early afternoon it usually doesn’t get too bad in my apartment and holds on to the cool air I let in overnight. Once 3-4pm hits though it gets hot fast since I’m on the west side of the building. 

[Phishy Wx]

I'm starving

[Phishy Wx]

5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I'm starving

I could go for a hot dog, indeed

[FroYoBro]

7 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I'm starving

I just gave you some lunch. 

Edited July 26, 2022 by FroYoBro

[T-Town]

10 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Just hit 80 here…although in the mornings/early afternoon it usually doesn’t get too bad in my apartment and holds on to the cool air I let in overnight. Once 3-4pm hits though it gets hot fast since I’m on the west side of the building. 

Equilibrium. 
 

My office faces east so it’s worse in the morning on hot days. Actually cools a bit later in the day. 

[FroYoBro]

Looks like PDX is matching the same 11am temp as yesterday except for a higher dew point today. Sweaty. It would be cool to get to 100 one day though if it’s going to be this hot. 

Edited July 26, 2022 by FroYoBro

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I'm starving

Same bro. Been keto-ing at 70% basal since spring and the cravings have been torturous.

But d**n it works. Am in the best physical and mental shape I’ve been in a long time.

[TacomaWx]

5 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Equilibrium. 
 

My office faces east so it’s worse in the morning on hot days. Actually cools a bit later in the day. 

I’m guessing we’re probably gonna hit 92-94 today. Feels nasty outside already 81 DP 66. There’s no cooling breeze coming off the water either today. 

[TT-SEA]

43 minutes ago, Phil said:

Hmm, the 06z Euro control run finally ditched the slow cooldown idea. I think the operational euro will cave today (can’t believe I’m saying that, lol).

Nope.

12Z ECMWF is actually a little warmer than its 00Z run on Monday morning.  

[Deweydog]

Pretty fun little low level rotation off the CA coast.

Edited July 26, 2022 by Deweydog