December 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

60 at BLI now

Sweet. It happened.

 

Justin did not see what was coming... but the ECMWF did 4 days ago.  

 

60s in December are pretty much reserved for subtropical airmasses and major southerly wind events. I don't see that in the pipeline.

 

[bainbridgekid]

Sweet. It happened.

 

Justin did not see what was coming... but the ECMWF did 4 days ago.  

BLI's a special animal.

 

They get some serious heat spikes with the SE wind and a mild airmass.

[TT-SEA]

BLI's a special animal.

 

They get some serious heat spikes with the SE wind and a mild airmass.

Still a 60-degree reading in western WA.

 

I think there might be a couple more tomorrow afternoon.

[ShawniganLake]

00Z ECMWF at 240 hours... love it.    And is it ever warm in the East.   Holy crap.   

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls04/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls04-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-_MmRqZ.png

Chillyish

[TT-SEA]

Chillyish

Yeah... and like 70 for Fred!

[ShawniganLake]

Yeah... and like 70 for Fred!

Poor Fred

[Bryant]

Yeah... and like 70 for Fred!

He'll get his cold weather soon enough, and make us all jealous of his choice to move

[richard mann]

No Richie I've never pooped a Walgreens. 

 

.. Name's not "Richie". 

 

And please, no "more" information. ... 

[luvssnow_spokane]

It is 47 here so much cooler than Bellingham..

[snow_wizard]

The trough being depicted late next week on the ECMWF is nothing short of ridiculous.  The main jet and 552 height line go well south of San Diego.  the entire West is reasonably cold with an epic torch in the East.

[snow_wizard]

He'll get his cold weather soon enough, and make us all jealous of his choice to move

 

Perhaps we will score some goodies first and it will be more even this year.

 

If the LRC is in effect this winter we should certainly do ok.

[BLI snowman]

Sweet. It happened.

 

Justin did not see what was coming... but the ECMWF did 4 days ago.  

 

This is going to be a major southerly wind event. Overachiever.

 

Meanwhile it's 38 with heavy rain here. Rare to see us 20 degrees colder than Bellingham.

[stuffradio]

It's 50 here.

[snow_wizard]

This is one case where this area is much cooler than Bellingham.  Evaporative cooling with rain and easterly winds have the temperature here down to 44.  It's always fascinating to see how much cooler Lynden is than Bellingham in these cases also.  For Tim to say he was right about the 60 degree call is a pretty far stretch since Portland in particular is nowhere near that.

[TT-SEA]

This is one case where this area is much cooler than Bellingham.  Evaporative cooling with rain and easterly winds have the temperature here down to 44.  It's always fascinating to see how much cooler Lynden is than Bellingham in these cases also.  For Tim to say he was right about the 60 degree call is a pretty far stretch since Portland in particular is nowhere near that.

 

 

Obviously a stretch if it stays in the 40s everywhere else...  but I think its going to get close to 60 elsewhere today when the south wind punches through.   We will see.  

[Jbolin]

HRRR now showing maybe just a brief period of strong winds.

Looking like a possible non event for the most part, we shall see

[Jbolin]

Looks like storm is being kept west offshore lessening the threat for winds here inland

[bainbridgekid]

12z GFS looks a little weaker and further NW with the low. Wouldn't make for as strong winds.

[MossMan]

12z GFS looks a little weaker and further NW with the low. Wouldn't make for as strong winds.

NWS Seattle just freshened the High Wind Warning saying it will be short lived but powerful and still talking gusts to 60mph.

[Jesse]

12z MOS guidance for today shows no big spike of warmth for PDX, with temps topping out in the upper 40s.

 

Still only 40 with an east wind gusting to 22.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Seems like the GFS is gradually trending warmer and warmer for later this month. Baby steps the wrong direction but to be expected.    <_>

[WS Snow]

Seems like the GFS is gradually trending warmer and warmer for later this month. Baby steps the wrong direction but to be expected.    <_>

Boo

[MossMan]

Seems like the GFS is gradually trending warmer and warmer for later this month. Baby steps the wrong direction but to be expected. <_>

Will be interesting to see what the 12z Euro shows. How's the GEM?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

HAHAHAHAHA! Check this out!

 

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2015/12/03/ready-for-60-degrees-strong-wind-2-3pm-too/

[Gradient Keeper]

HAHAHAHAHA! Check this out!

 

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2015/12/03/ready-for-60-degrees-strong-wind-2-3pm-too/

I just read it myself. 60 degrees is going to feel like a heat wave. I am though now up to 41.7 feels mild and that cold east wind is losing its grip.

[TT-SEA]

HAHAHAHAHA! Check this out!

 

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2015/12/03/ready-for-60-degrees-strong-wind-2-3pm-too/

 

 

Called it 5 days ago.      At least its a possibility!     

 

And technically its already happened at BLI.  

[ShawniganLake]

Will be interesting to see what the 12z Euro shows. How's the GEM?

Not exciting for cold.

[TT-SEA]

Ho hum.   12Z ECMWF at 240 hours.   At least its cooler for Fred than the 00Z run!

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015120312!!chart.gif

[TT-SEA]

61 at BLI for the last 2 hours.

[bainbridgekid]

WRF shows 60 mph gusts for Seattle early this evening.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Ho hum.   12Z ECMWF at 240 hours.   At least its cooler for Fred than the 00Z run!

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2015120312!!chart.gif

 

 

Yeah.. Ho-hum is right. 

[Jesse]

Nice to see that cooler than average temps still look to be a lock beyond day 7. Was anybody actually expecting an arctic outbreak in that time frame?

 

Hopefully PDX can avoid hitting 60 today. It would be nice to have at least one winter month this year that doesn't hit the big 6-0. I think every winter month did it multiple times last year.

[MossMan]

Nice to see that cooler than average temps still look to be a lock beyond day 7! Was anybody actually expecting an arctic outbreak in that time frame?

 

Hopefully PDX can avoid hitting 60 today. It would be nice to have at least one winter month this year that doesn't hit the big 6-0. I think every winter month did it multiple times last year.

Wasn't expecting an arctic outbreak but was hoping to get temps low enough to perhaps see some snow.

[Jesse]

Wasn't expecting an arctic outbreak but was hoping to get temps low enough to perhaps see some snow.

 

The general pattern is still good. If a trough hangs around over the west a good part of December someone will see snow eventually, even if we never manage to tap into really cold air. 

[Jesse]

HAHAHAHAHA! Check this out!

 

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2015/12/03/ready-for-60-degrees-strong-wind-2-3pm-too/

 

Mark seems absolutely thrilled about the warmth. Big shocker!

[High Desert Mat]

+1 Jesse.

[Jesse]

+1 Jesse.

 

It's too bad our best local met has gone so strongly toward the dark side. Cold, rain and even snow are written off as mere annoyances, but if it's gonna be warm or sunny, oh boy!!

 

He should check to see if there are any pro-met positions available in San Diego. He would probably be pretty happy down there.

[crf450ish]

Warmed up quite a bit here in my neck of the woods over the last 24 hours. Up to 35 so far today and light rain/snow mix off and on. Had freezing drizzle last night as forecasted. I'm hoping that the small layer of snow thats on the ground around here doesn't completely thaw and wash away before the next round of cold temps. It would be spectacular if in a few days temps fell back to below freezing during the day and froze the slush solid before the next snowfall . 

 

 

On another note, I got a chance to talk to a reclusive neighbor of mine who rarely ventures out of his house. I caught him checking the mail and merely waved and he flagged me over to talk. It was mainly about the weather, and he informed me that he's been keeping records for 28 years!!! He said the last three fall/winter seasons here have been rather mild and that usually, by thanksgiving, theres at least 6-8" of snow on the ground. I asked him how much snow he had in 2006-2007 and also 2010. He said there wasn't a massive snow event, but rather bone chilling temps and a few inches of snow here and several inches there that just kept compounding throughout the winter for a total of 28"(approx.) all in all for the winter of 06'-07', he pretty much said the same for 2010.  Also, he said that this fire season was the worst in history for WA, which I knew. His theory (didn't explain why) is that the horrible fires cleaned out the understory brush to make way for epic snowfall to prepare and moisten the ground for new plant growth........ . 

 

What are your thoughts? 

[FroYoBro]

It's too bad our best local met has gone so strongly toward the dark side. Cold, rain and even snow are written off as mere annoyances, but if it's gonna be warm or sunny, oh boy!!

 

He should check to see if there are any pro-met positions available in San Diego. He would probably be pretty happy down there.

Why does it matter? He usually just gives his forecast without much opinion. Your dislike for him is strange to me.

[Jesse]

Why does it matter? He usually just gives his forecast without much opinion. Your dislike for him is strange to me.

 

Who said I dislike him?