NEJeremy Posted December 27, 2015 Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 I'm confused by what you are trying to say here. So because there are models that are different than each other, he should be offering a huge range for everyone and not go with a choice of how he thinks things will play out? "Town A you could get 2" or you could get 14" if this model is right or if this model is right, town B in Iowa you could get 5" or you could get 9" if this model is right or that model is right, etc etc." Do you realize how confusing that would be for people? He's picking a model and going with it. The Euro for the longest time didn't even have the heaviest over Omaha. On his Facebook page is generally focuses on Omaha, but on the TV he talks about the area he covers too. But the point being, that if it is wrong and the higher amounts are to the east or the west...the folks living there will not know what the heck happened b/c he says that the only thing that will happen will be heaviest over the MO river. That's a disservice to his viewers and should be changed. At least show what the other models are showing and say that he is going with this particular model. That's the responsible thing to do so others are not caught off guard. 98% of the public have no clue what the Euro, NAM, GFS is or what it means. His job is to explain that and he is failing to do so. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 27, 2015 Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 Another met going with the Euro huh? Strange.... Terry swails says GFS is the outliner and the euro is probably right. Says GFS is over doing the cold air Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaycee Posted December 27, 2015 Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 Agreed with Jeremy. Its so weird how Jim Flowers has been the topic in here as of late. I grew up watching him, and he has messed up countless times. Who cares though what his bias is? You understand that this is his FB page, not live news broadcast. He's going to talk about whatever he wants, when he's live on TV it's a different story. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted December 27, 2015 Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 I'm confused by what you are trying to say here. So because there are models that are different than each other, he should be offering a huge range for everyone and not go with a choice of how he thinks things will play out? "Town A you could get 2" or you could get 14" if this model is right or if this model is right, town B in Iowa you could get 5" or you could get 9" if this model is right or that model is right, etc etc." Do you realize how confusing that would be for people? He's picking a model and going with it. The Euro for the longest time didn't even have the heaviest over Omaha. On his Facebook page is generally focuses on Omaha, but on the TV he talks about the area he covers too. @NEJeremy. I don't see him on TV so I hope that is correct. My point is that he has a responsibility to show the potential areas of heaviest snows. It's one graphic; different shades with just putting "model 1" vs "model 2" vs model 3. Don't even use the technical names. You show that 10 sec graphic, explain which one you are using and why, then go to a graphic with your totals that you are using. Total it takes 1 min of on air time. The producer gives you an extra minute or two during these types of storms so he has the time. If he does that, then that is all I am asking. I only see his FB stuff, so I may be over reacting a bit, but from what I have seen (and like I said earlier--only just heard of him and followed him since this storm), he is not fulfilling his responsibility to do so. I hope I am wrong and he does this on air. Otherwise, you are not giving businesses and emergency managers the full information; and it leads to a responsible explanation if the Euro is indeed wrong. He can go back and say; "I told you about model 2 being a possibility, and it turned out it went model 2 vs the Euro (model 1)". See what I am getting at? It's not confusing b/c you show the possibilities and then go with your explanation of what model. It's almost a CYA for post storm reasons. I admire his gut from a week ago sticking with Euro, but he is still not doing his viewers right by not showing the possibility that western Iowa may get creamed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 27, 2015 Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 Its moving east, but not quite to Des Moines yet. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 27, 2015 Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 Agreed with Jeremy. Its so weird how Jim Flowers has been the topic in here as of late. I grew up watching him, and he has messed up countless times. Who cares though what his bias is? You understand that this is his FB page, not live news broadcast. He's going to talk about whatever he wants, when he's live on TV it's a different story. Imo, it is very unprofessional to cherry pick a certain model, especially when the consensus is different from that model and not at least give an acknowledgement to all major models. My call is that the low passes within 50 miles of here. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted December 27, 2015 Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 @ geos. You mean professional or unprofessional? Confused? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 27, 2015 Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 @ geos. You mean professional or unprofessional? Confused? Fixed it. Got side tracked while I was typing the sentence. I know met's like Tom Skilling give acknowledgement to all the major models. He doesn't jump on a certain model a week away and say this will happen most likely. He's a lot more cautious. The way it should be. There's a met in Indiana I think; Chad something..., that sounds a lot like Flowers. Difference is that he usually picks the least extreme model and runs with it. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 27, 2015 Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 Nam shows very warm temps at 700mb that is why it shows so little snow in areas that 850s are below zero. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 27, 2015 Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 Nam shows very warm temps at 700mb that is why it shows so little snow in areas that 850s are below zero. Ok. PW was being too slow. Now running smooth At Cedar Rapids the warm layer keeps up until 30 hours, before snow moves in. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pack402 Posted December 27, 2015 Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 Fixed it. Got side tracked while I was typing the sentence. I know met's like Tom Skilling give acknowledgement to all the major models. He doesn't jump on a certain model a week away and say this will happen most likely. He's a lot more cautious. The way it should be. There's a met in Indiana I think; Chad something..., that sounds a lot like Flowers.[/quote Lol, well I'd say follow him for longer than one storm system and you will see he is more diverse in forecasting than you give credit for. Sounds like he ruffled some feathers with some but he's fully explained why he's left major models out of certain forecasts. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 27, 2015 Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 Hrrr doesn't bring warm 700-750 Mb layer as far W as others do. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted December 27, 2015 Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 We thought this board was active before; now the HRRR is active and within time frame. This thing (board) is going to be non stop! Lol! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 27, 2015 Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 Rgem looks similar maybe a tad west Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 27, 2015 Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 I'm so excited for another WWA....just goes to show you why you never live model to model! The maps are going to look really funny, you will have WWA along highway 81 south of Columbus down to Hebron. Then warnings north and south of there from Columbus north and just south of Hebron into Kansas. Good old Hastings NWS! URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE301 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015...ACCUMULATION SNOWFALL EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRALNEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAYEVENING...NEZ041-048-049-063-064-280600-/O.UPG.KGID.WS.A.0005.151228T1200Z-151229T0600Z//O.NEW.KGID.WW.Y.0013.151228T1200Z-151229T0600Z/NANCE-MERRICK-POLK-HAMILTON-YORK-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FULLERTON...GENOA...CENTRAL CITY...STROMSBURG...OSCEOLA...SHELBY...POLK...AURORA...YORK301 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHTCST MONDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAYTO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGERIN EFFECT.* TIMING...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP AROUND 6 AM MONDAY AND THENDIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.* PRECIPITATION RATES...THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCURBETWEEN 10 AM AND 5 PM MONDAY.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHESARE EXPECTED. HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG THE HIGHWAY 81CORRIDOR.* WINDS / VISIBILITIES...LOOK FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES ATTIMES...AT TIMES LESS THAN 1 MILE.* IMPACTS...PLAN ON SLIPPERY ROAD CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DURINGTHE MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 Both RGEM/HRRR showing snow for the KC region... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted December 27, 2015 Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 South south just slide to the south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 18z RGEM has temps in the 20's for most of the day in N IL...looks a lot colder than the global models...man, icing is going to be a real big threat around here... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 18z RGEM... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015122718/rgem_asnow_ncus_16.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted December 27, 2015 Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 South south just slide to the south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 27, 2015 Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 RGEM does not have snow here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 LOT upgraded all of N IL into a WSW...also issued a High Wind Warning...it's going to get nasty... Winter Storm WarningURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL307 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015ILZ014-280515-/O.NEW.KLOT.WS.W.0006.151228T1200Z-151228T1900Z/COOK-INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CHICAGO307 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM CST MONDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWARNING FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6AM TO 1 PM CST MONDAY.* TIMING...MONDAY MORNING POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE EARLYAFTERNOON FAR INLAND FROM THE LAND.* MAIN IMPACT...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL DEVELOP MONDAYMORNING...MAINLY AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. ICY PRECIPITATION WILLCHANGE TO RAIN EVERYWHERE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.* OTHER IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS WILL GREATLY INCREASE THE RISK OFPOWER OUTAGES ANYWHERE ICE HAS ACCUMULATED ON POWER LINES ANDTREE LIMBS. High Wind WarningURGENT - WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL254 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015...VERY STRONG EAST WINDS ON MONDAY...ILZ006-014-280500-/O.NEW.KLOT.HW.W.0001.151228T1900Z-151229T0100Z/LAKE IL-COOK-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAUKEGAN...CHICAGO254 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CST MONDAY ALONGTHE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A HIGH WINDWARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CST MONDAY.* TIMING...MONDAY EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.* WINDS...EAST WINDS SUSTAINED 35 TO 45 MPH...GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.* IMPACTS...PROPERTY DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES. Too bad this isn't snow because it would have justified a Blizzard Warning... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEJeremy Posted December 27, 2015 Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 winter storm warning issued for eastern Nebraska. my grids have 7-12" forecast! hoping for double digit totals here! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted December 27, 2015 Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 I don't think some people realized the trouble this storm is going to cause. My dad was like .. What, you said maybe a few inches of snow? Yes, on top of ice and with wind, which is a bad, bad combination. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 27, 2015 Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 Platte county, which is Columbus, has 6-10" being forecasted. I'm straight south of there and I have 3-5". The snow will be moving in from the south!! It doesn't make sense, sometimes I wonder what the hell Hastings is thinking..... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE333 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015...WINTER STORM MOVING INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...IAZ043-055-056-NEZ012-015-017-018-031>034-042>045-280545-/O.UPG.KOAX.WS.A.0004.151228T1200Z-151229T1200Z//O.NEW.KOAX.WS.W.0006.151228T1200Z-151229T1200Z/MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-CEDAR-THURSTON-PIERCE-WAYNE-MADISON-STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONAWA...MAPLETON...MISSOURI VALLEY...WOODBINE...LOGAN...DUNLAP...HARLAN...HARTINGTON...LAUREL...RANDOLPH...COLERIDGE...PENDER...MACY...WALTHILL...WINNEBAGO...PIERCE...PLAINVIEW...OSMOND...WAYNE...NORFOLK...STANTON...WEST POINT...WISNER...TEKAMAH...OAKLAND...LYONS...DECATUR...COLUMBUS...SCHUYLER...FREMONT...BLAIR333 PM CST SUN DEC 27 2015...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CSTTUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA/VALLEY HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOLONGER IN EFFECT.* TIMING...SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO THE AREA MONDAY MORNINGAND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL AREPOSSIBLE LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 6 TO 10INCHES ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS. NORTHEAST WINDSOF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE STRONGWINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING CAUSING SIGNIFICANTBLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. VISIBILITIES IN THE BLOWING ANDFALLING SNOW MAY BE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 27, 2015 Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 GFS trending E. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 27, 2015 Author Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 18z GFS...clobbers Wisco... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 27, 2015 Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 No snow on the GFS. Hope those short range models are right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted December 27, 2015 Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 Yesssss please Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 27, 2015 Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 About Hi res nowcast time. Gfs way colder than any model. Trust it at your own risk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 27, 2015 Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 Wowwww Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maxim Posted December 27, 2015 Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 toss Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 27, 2015 Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 WowwwwYou riding the gfs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 27, 2015 Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 Dodge city nws went from blizzard warnings and feet of snow to no advisories and less than one inch of snow forecasted. Proves models can change rapidly. Shoot earlier this week the gfs had over a foot of snow here and has now shifted hundreds of miles east. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 27, 2015 Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 About Hi res nowcast time. Gfs way colder than any model. Trust it at your own risknoway it's that cold. Maybe Flowers and swails are on to something 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterfreak Posted December 27, 2015 Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 Sounds like our NWS might downgrade the warning. Less than an inch of snow with a minimal ice threat as warm air aloft wins the battle again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 27, 2015 Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 You riding the gfs?Nah not making a call til 0z runs tonight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 27, 2015 Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 Nah not making a call til 0z runs tonightCool Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 27, 2015 Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 Such a sharp cut off I hate it. I need not even a 3 mile shift to the west and I'm in the 6-8". It has been a frustrating past couple of days. Still waiting for the one "share the wealth storm" to occur for all of us. You have to admit though, it looks stupid with the WWA south of Columbus down to Hebron!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 27, 2015 Report Share Posted December 27, 2015 CoolI'm leaning more towards the southern end of guidance right now tho Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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