August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

There’s a big difference between wanting a medal and wanting to not be treated like absolute garbage.

Are people on the forum really mocking wildland firefighters?  If so....not cool.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Doiinko said:

Wow

That's like torrential.

[Doinko]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

That's like torrential.

The NWS issued a severe thunderstorm warning there for winds up to 60mph and half dollar sized hail. And radar coverage isn't that great there too.

[NWbyNW]

1 hour ago, HoodCanalBridge said:

Just a note, the Riparia fire is definitely out now.   I led a team of firefighters over there on the 5th and we returned on the 7th.

but thanks for this info, it’s great!

That is great to hear!  Thanks for your work as well.  The state website last updated 49 mins ago and claims the fire is still burning.  Strange.  Incident #:2022-WAWFS-020205

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Are people on the forum really mocking wildland firefighters?  If so....not cool.

I got the same weird reaction when I talked about being an AmeriCorps reading tutor back in the day. Hard to figure out.

[NWbyNW]

Why would any mock our first responders?  Are they stupid? 

[snow_wizard]

We're just going to have to hope the 18z models are wrong.  Seattle totally gets the shaft.  They still show considerable action west of here.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

We're just going to have to hope the 18z models are wrong.  Seattle totally gets the shaft.  They still show considerable action west of here.

There’s been some thunderstorm outbreaks in recent years the models were just flat out wrong…for better or for worse. It’s always seems like it’s a nowcast situation when dealing with convection. 

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I got the same weird reaction when I talked about being an AmeriCorps reading tutor back in the day. Hard to figure out.

Both sound pretty honorable to me.  I thought about fighting forest fires a few times.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TacomaWx said:

There’s been some thunderstorm outbreaks in recent years the models were just flat out wrong…for better or for worse. It’s always seems like it’s a nowcast situation when dealing with convection. 

Very true.  I have seen some wild outbreaks when it wasn't in the forecast at all.  The ingredients are there at least.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Both sound pretty honorable to me.  I thought about fighting forest fires a few times.

That was never the issue.   It was all the baggage.   He is playing martyr right now. 

[TT-SEA]

23 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Another epic fail for the GFS today.  Last night's 0z was going for 88 for SEA today.  The real shocker is even the ECMWF busted high.

You failed to mention how well the GFS did the last few days.   Literally nailing the high perfectly at SEA on a couple days... while the ECMWF was floundering at 8-10 degrees too cold.   

 

[Doinko]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Very true.  I have seen some wild outbreaks when it wasn't in the forecast at all.  The ingredients are there at least.

And the convection earlier this morning was in the foothills was a lot more widespread than most models showed, I'm hoping that is a good sign for tonight but we'll have to see I guess.

[T-Town]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

There’s been some thunderstorm outbreaks in recent years the models were just flat out wrong…for better or for worse. It’s always seems like it’s a nowcast situation when dealing with convection. 

I would love to get a soaking rain tonight or tomorrow. In the meantime, pretty nice evening. 

[NWbyNW]

14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We're just going to have to hope the 18z models are wrong.  Seattle totally gets the shaft.  They still show considerable action west of here.

What is it showing?

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, T-Town said:

I would love to get a soaking rain tonight or tomorrow. In the meantime, pretty nice evening. 

Right now if the models are indeed correct we probably would get a few hundredths of an inch…and with high based storms maybe some good lightning photos looking west of here. Not saying the models will indeed be wrong…but the most difficult type of weather for the models to pinpoint is always convection. 

[TacomaWx]

76/59 today very nice. 

[Meatyorologist]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

You failed to mention how well the GFS did the last few days.   Literally nailing the high perfectly at SEA on a couple days... while the ECMWF was floundering at 8-10 degrees too cold.   

 

Saw today's high temp bust from a mile away. Thick high cloud cover and increasing moisture were both forecast days ago. Kind of the ultimate GFS-brick-in-washing-machine sort of day; the kind of day where the GFS would specifically fail at. Yes the Euro also failed, but the GFS in particular mixes the lower column like mad.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Saw today's high temp bust from a mile away. Thick high cloud cover and increasing moisture were both forecast days ago. Kind of the ultimate GFS-brick-in-washing-machine sort of day; the kind of day where the GFS would specifically fail at. Yes the Euro also failed, but the GFS in particular mixes the lower column like mad.

Yeah... its very easy to spot the days where the GFS will be wrong.   But its not always wrong.   It appears there are many days coming up where the GFS will be closer than the ECMWF.     That is basically any day without morning clouds.   

[Frontal Snowsquall]

39 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Wow

 Into Lane County now.

 

[HoodCanalBridge]

38 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Are people on the forum really mocking wildland firefighters?  If so....not cool.

Re-reading my post it reads a bit “hey look at me I went over there.” Lol, not the tone I meant but that’s the tough deal with text based communications.   We laugh and tell each other thank you for your service as a bit of a tongue and cheek joke so believe me, no offense taken here.  It’s just work!

[TT-SEA]

For tomorrow... the ECMWF shows 74 and the GFS shows 75 at SEA.

The ECMWF also shows an area of low clouds moving up into the Seattle area during the morning and not clearing until late in the day.    I suspect both models will be too warm tomorrow.  

After that... the only other day shown with any marine layer in the morning is Saturday.   So most of the the next 7-10 days should favor the GFS in terms of accuracy on high temps.

[Doinko]

30 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

We're just going to have to hope the 18z models are wrong.  Seattle totally gets the shaft.  They still show considerable action west of here.

Are they looking okay for NW OR?

[HoodCanalBridge]

38 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

That is great to hear!  Thanks for your work as well.  The state website last updated 49 mins ago and claims the fire is still burning.  Strange.  Incident #:2022-WAWFS-020205

this is a pretty reliable link that updates with a fresh report each morning for large fires in the NW (specifically Oregon and WAshington)

https://gacc.nifc.gov/nwcc/content/products/intelligence/MORNINGBRIEF.pdf

it will stop reporting on fires when activities diminish.

wildcad.net is another great resource.  It lists most new starts in different areas with lat/longs that you can copy/paste into google maps.   Pretty reliable but when the dispatch centers get busy it tends to get slow as far as acreage updates.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Are they looking okay for NW OR?

Here is the 18Z ECMWF loop... looks like some places are going to get nailed tonight into tomorrow morning.   Right now it looks like it stays west of SEA and PDX for the most part.    But this convective stuff is always hard for the models to nail down.  It will be interesting to watch.

[TacomaWx]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Here is the 18Z ECMWF loop... looks like some places are going to get nailed tonight into tomorrow morning.   Right now it looks like it stays west of SEA and PDX for the most part.    But this convective stuff is always hard for the models to nail down.  It will be interesting to watch.

Could be a nice show looking west towards the Olympics if it verifies like that. 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Could be a nice show looking west towards the Olympics if it verifies like that. 

Then you have the HRRR which says the show will be out in my area early tomorrow morning...

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Here is the 18Z ECMWF loop... looks like some places are going to get nailed tonight into tomorrow morning.   Right now it looks like it stays west of SEA and PDX for the most part.    But this convective stuff is always hard for the models to nail down.  It will be interesting to watch.

Looking good for the Northern Coast Range and the Willapa Hills. Wouldn't take much of a shift east for the Willamette Valley up into Puget Sound to get hammered. 

[TacomaWx]

6 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Looking good for the Northern Coast Range and the Willapa Hills. Wouldn't take much of a shift east for the Willamette Valley up into Puget Sound to get hammered. 

If it shifts 10-15 miles west it wouldn’t be any show really in the Puget sound region but if it shifts 10-15 miles east would be pretty fantastic for the Puget sound. Trend is not our friend though trend is good for @GHweatherChris though. 

[MV_snow]

20 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

If it shifts 10-15 miles west it wouldn’t be any show really in the Puget sound region but if it shifts 10-15 miles east would be pretty fantastic for the Puget sound. Trend is not our friend though trend is good for @GHweatherChris though. 

Doesn’t look like I’m in a good position here in the foothills for this one. Surprising since we normally do well here when storms over the Cascades drift west, but it seems like this is a different type of setup.

[snow_wizard]

Major push of marine air going on in OR.  Low clouds have actually cleared the coast range in one place well before sunset.

[TacomaWx]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Major push of marine air going on in OR.  Low clouds have actually cleared the coast range in one place well before sunset.

Convection firing up moving into the northern cascades too it looks like. 

[TT-SEA]

28 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Major push of marine air going on in OR.  Low clouds have actually cleared the coast range in one place well before sunset.

Its not like the trough is moving inland.    Shelton was crashing last night and OLM still got into the 80s today.

But the ECMWF has shown low clouds hanging around the Seattle area well into the afternoon tomorrow on many runs.   Could be a rare marine layer day which have been notably absent this summer.   And the only such day in sight.    Back to full sun all day on Thursday. 

 

[snow_wizard]

50 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Then you have the HRRR which says the show will be out in my area early tomorrow morning...

 

At least we are still in the running.  The 18z ECMWF was certainly too close of a call to have any real confidence one way or the other for the EPSL.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Convection firing up moving into the northern cascades too it looks like. 

Sure looks like we are in the line of fire, but things change rapidly in these cases.

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Sure looks like we are in the line of fire, but things change rapidly in these cases.

Yeah it “looks” like it’s heading our way but chances are that stuff will break apart once coming off the cascades moving NW. could clip the sandy area down in Oregon by the looks of it. Probably not much chance of anything up here in western WA until midnight or later if I had to guess. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

44 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

If it shifts 10-15 miles west it wouldn’t be any show really in the Puget sound region but if it shifts 10-15 miles east would be pretty fantastic for the Puget sound. Trend is not our friend though trend is good for @GHweatherChris though. 

Chris is in a good spot to see some action, I'd definitely trade places with him right now. The last few runs of the ICON show most of the moisture focused around Grays Harbor.

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

At least we are still in the running.  The 18z ECMWF was certainly too close of a call to have any real confidence one way or the other for the EPSL.

Definitely could happen in our area... any time through tomorrow around noon.

[Meatyorologist]

I'd guess a good portion of the I5 corridor will see lightning tonight into tomorrow morning. There is a main axis of diffluence that coincides with the best midlevel moisture around 7am in the Seattle area, though some pop up showers do tend to form a tad earlier than expected and further away from the source of best lift.

The coast has a distinct shot at some organized convective banding which Seattle (and especially Portland) does not really have. The instability is there everywhere, some places breaching 1000j/kg, but the killer will be a relative lack of lift.

I do think there will be surprises.

[Meatyorologist]

Arguably there will be an all day shot at thunderstorms over NW WA tomorrow, particularly north of Olympia. NAM has weak popup thundershowers firing over Seattle around dinnertime.