August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You named your son COVID. WOW

i'll change it back later

[Doinko]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Truly fake cold patterns inherently don’t produce snow due to the warm mid levels. We can score small scale hybrid patterns though, like 2016 thanks to the existing surface cold. That one was really unique as a weak inside slider cutoff over Northern CA and then intensified as it drifted north. That snow was “colder” than any of the snow we had during 2016-17.

Thanks for the explanation! Was the Jan 2016 pattern any similar to what happened in late December 2017? 2017 had more freezing rain I think than 2016.

[Cascadia_Wx]

10 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The 4CH has established itself so firmly this summer that I don't really see any way that it doesn't continue to be the primary driver for us for at least the next 3-4 weeks.

Only when summer wavelength season really dies after Labor Day and the weak westerlies begin to emerge at our latitude will we start to see legitimate fronts and impulses suppress the 4CH influence far enough to the south and east. Until then I expect it to continue to bud back up after 2-3 days as there just isn't enough forcing from the Pacific to keep it in check for much longer than that 

"Despair casting" aside, another solidly warmer than average month looks like it's essentially a lock. 

For awhile there back in June/early July it was looking like the Central US ridge was going to be the big summer 500mb driver. Which in the past has teleconnected well with summer troughing here. But it seems like it ended up just broadening to encompass the 4CH as well. That’s the thing, there’s so much warmth and above normal 500mb heights to go around this day and age. It starts to paint a new climo picture where some of the old convential wisdom no longer applies.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like things are clearing up out there just in time for another run at 90  

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

For awhile there back in June/early July it was looking like the Central US ridge was going to be the big summer 500mb driver. Which in the past has teleconnected well with summer troughing here. But it seems like it ended up just broadening to encompass the 4CH as well. That’s the thing, there’s so much warmth and above normal 500mb heights to go around this day and age. It starts to paint a new climo picture where some of the old convential wisdom no longer applies.

That was basically where I was going with it. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Deweydog said:

That was basically where I was going with it. 

I’d figured as much. I was close to pulling the cool summer trigger as well back during our fleeting period of early July troughing. Especially since we had already gotten the heatwave monkey off our backs in late June.

[Omegaraptor]

1 hour ago, MV_snow said:

We need Phil to tell us not to panic about the models and that August will be cool.

Phil might be the single biggest jinx for summer cold anomalies on the planet.

[ShawniganLake]

Skies are finally starting to clear.  Only 75F at 1pm.  Heatwave has broken for now up this way. 

[Deweydog]

Thunder in Kelso!!!

[Deweydog]

33 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The 4CH has established itself so firmly this summer that I don't really see any way that it doesn't continue to be the primary driver for us for at least the next 3-4 weeks.

Only when summer wavelength season really dies after Labor Day and the weak westerlies begin to emerge at our latitude will we start to see legitimate fronts and impulses suppress the 4CH influence far enough to the south and east. Until then I expect it to continue to bud back up after 2-3 days as there just isn't enough forcing from the Pacific to keep it in check for much longer than that 

"Despair casting" aside, another solidly warmer than average month looks like it's essentially a lock. 

It’s definitely made itself a beast over the last couple weeks and obviously insane feedback loops over the SW are doing their thing. Should be noted though that in the bigger picture, the energy dumps into AK/Aleutians are certainly not helping matters.

[Omegaraptor]

14 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’d figured as much. I was close to pulling the cool summer trigger as well back during our fleeting period of early July troughing. Especially since we had already gotten the heatwave monkey off our backs in late June.

That was a pretty decent trough in the southern PNW, at least by modern standards. Plenty of fun t-storms and quite a bit of rain for July with IIRC sub-70 highs some spots in the Rogue/Klamath basins. The five straight sub-90 highs at RDD were the first instance in July since 2011.

Thought we might have another quiet fire season like 2019 after that, but looking more and more like that will not be the case.

[Deweydog]

30 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Thanks for the explanation! Was the Jan 2016 pattern any similar to what happened in late December 2017? 2017 had more freezing rain I think than 2016.

That was a pretty typical overrunning event after we got clipped with some rotting table scraps of an Arctic air mass on the 23rd.

[Deweydog]

Finally getting some sun and drying out here.

[TacomaWx]

20 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Thunder in Kelso!!!

Sky looks convective up here 

[TacomaWx]

74 here…nice to be struggling to hit 80 today. 

[FroYoBro]

9 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Finally getting some sun and drying out here.

Yeah, I’m really starting to get tired of rain in the middle of summer. 2 out of the last 3 days have been rain days here. Luckily today isn’t a weekend though. 

[RentonHill]

This isnt awful. 

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, RentonHillTC said:

This isnt awful. 

I’m pretty certain from a heat standpoint that the worst is over. Maybe a couple days in the 90s and a few mid 80s at worst. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It’s definitely made itself a beast over the last couple weeks and obviously insane feedback loops over the SW are doing their thing. Should be noted though that in the bigger picture, the energy dumps into AK/Aleutians are certainly not helping matters.

Above my paygrade, but it seems conceivable that a beefed up 4CH could buckle back the wave train to the point that energy is more likely to dump out there in the first place.

[James Jones]

  

On 7/31/2022 at 10:10 AM, BLI snowman said:

From a 500mb perspective, we've basically become part of the desert SW from July 15 to August 20. Without any of the benefits from the monsoon.

This is how I've been thinking of it. PDX's average highs since 2013 demonstrate this well, the late July through late August period shows a distinct spike (as well as late June, but that may be more happenstance). 

[ShawniganLake]

21 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Finally getting some sun and drying out here.

Nice.  I just noticed that July will enter the record books as a wetter than normal month here IMBY

[Cascadia_Wx]

Guess it could be worse?

[TT-SEA]

Much colder and apparently now cloudier day at home.  Hopefully summer returns by time we get back.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Above my paygrade, but it seems conceivable that a beefed up 4CH could buckle back the wave train to the point that energy is more likely to dump out there in the first place.

Seems like the more active monsoon down there would eventually work to dampen the feedback effects of the 4CH, though

[RentonHill]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Guess it could be worse?

I guess we shouldnt count out an extension of that upcoming spike based on what just happened. 

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Above my paygrade, but it seems conceivable that a beefed up 4CH could buckle back the wave train to the point that energy is more likely to dump out there in the first place.

I think that might be a climate emergency bridge too far…

Especially since AK has see some crazy warm summers during our current run of predominan summer warmth.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

79˚F at 2:00 pm. Much more reasonable.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Up to 85F in Springfield.

[MossMan]

I wouldn’t mind a repeat of the last week in August before summer is done. Let’s do this! 
 

Currently 76 and partly cloudy. 

[Deweydog]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I wouldn’t mind a repeat of the last week in August before summer is done. Let’s do this! 
 

Currently 76 and partly cloudy. 

Minus the rain down here, of course.

[TacomaWx]

20 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I wouldn’t mind a repeat of the last week in August before summer is done. Let’s do this! 
 

Currently 76 and partly cloudy. 

Woah satan calm down 

[Omegaraptor]

21 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I wouldn’t mind a repeat of the last week in August before summer is done. Let’s do this! 
 

Currently 76 and partly cloudy. 

Yeah! Hope it lasts twice as long this time! Get your boats ready for 3 weeks of Redding weather!

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Much colder and apparently now cloudier day at home.  Hopefully summer returns by time we get back.  

That’s like a +10 departure for North Bend.  

[BLI snowman]

2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

For awhile there back in June/early July it was looking like the Central US ridge was going to be the big summer 500mb driver. Which in the past has teleconnected well with summer troughing here. But it seems like it ended up just broadening to encompass the 4CH as well. That’s the thing, there’s so much warmth and above normal 500mb heights to go around this day and age. It starts to paint a new climo picture where some of the old convential wisdom no longer applies.

Yep, Dallas just had 27 days of 100+ in July. If you look at the other years with the most 100+ days in July there you get:

1954, 1956, 1978, 1980, 1998, and 2011.

Reanalysis shows the teleconnecting signal in those years for broad troughing extending over the NE Pacific and over NE North America. With the Four Corners high either heavily suppressed over heavily displaced to the east over the Plains.

And even with a couple of prominent heatwaves thrown in the mix there (July 1956, July 1998), none of those Julys had an average maximum over 80.7 at PDX (1991-2020 average July average max is 81.9).

July 2022 just produced an average max of 85.7 at PDX. Clearly the broader teleconnecting signals of the past for midsummer are waning to the point of being utterly meaningless. The Four Corners High influence has completely won out over any downstream influences.

 

[RentonHill]

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yep, Dallas just had 27 days of 100+ in July. If you look at the other years with the most 100+ days in July there you get:

1954, 1956, 1978, 1980, 1998, and 2011.

Reanalysis shows the teleconnecting signal in those years for broad troughing extending over the NE Pacific and over NE North America. With the Four Corners high either heavily suppressed over heavily displaced to the east over the Plains.

And even with a couple of prominent heatwaves thrown in the mix there (July 1956, July 1998), none of those Julys had an average maximum over 80.7 at PDX (1991-2020 average July average max is 81.9).

July 2022 just produced an average max of 85.7 at PDX. Clearly the broader teleconnecting signals of the past for midsummer are waning to the point of being utterly meaningless. The Four Corners High influence has completely won out over any downstream influences.

 

good lord. 

[Deweydog]

18 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yep, Dallas just had 27 days of 100+ in July. If you look at the other years with the most 100+ days in July there you get:

1954, 1956, 1978, 1980, 1998, and 2011.

Reanalysis shows the teleconnecting signal in those years for broad troughing extending over the NE Pacific and over NE North America. With the Four Corners high either heavily suppressed over heavily displaced to the east over the Plains.

And even with a couple of prominent heatwaves thrown in the mix there (July 1956, July 1998), none of those Julys had an average maximum over 80.7 at PDX (1991-2020 average July average max is 81.9).

July 2022 just produced an average max of 85.7 at PDX. Clearly the broader teleconnecting signals of the past for midsummer are waning to the point of being utterly meaningless. The Four Corners High influence has completely won out over any downstream influences.

 

It’s worth noting though that up until late in the month the 4CH influence up here this summer was relatively muted. Then the Pacific ridge merged with it last week and that’s of course when July’s averages went entirely haywire. It didn’t turn Texas into an icebox, but it did flip the script a bit on what had been a 4CH with a moderate eastward displacement.

Edited August 1, 2022 by Deweydog

[RentonHill]

18z much better - through next weekend atleast. Still looks to be a day or two with 2high temps, especially for PDX. hopefully fleeting. 

[BLI snowman]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

It’s worth noting though that up until late in the month the 4CH influence up here this summer was relatively muted up when the Pacific ridge merged with it last week.  That’s of course when July’s averages went entirely haywire. It didn’t turn Texas into an icebox, but it did flip the script a bit on what had been a 4CH with a moderate eastward displacement.

True, and again that corresponds with the midsummer period that we've been harping on.

Obviously it's the historic peak of summer and of the 4CH's influence anyways, but it also has been the period that's seen the most disproportionate warming and 500mb height increase versus any other point in the year (aside from mid to late January, which perhaps coincidentally marks the seasonal inverse) as the expansion of the regional high pressure dome has created a persistent and sort of self-sustaining annual feedback loop across this stretch of calendar. One which at least for our latitude seems able to counteract any other sort of pattern forcing, be it ENSO or MJO driven. See James Jones' breakdown above for the nice visual evidence of it.

[RentonHill]

ULL sort of just bleeds into the trough instead of rocketing out immediately

[Meatyorologist]

This weekend into next week already feel like a lost cause. Should be a near repeat of what we just saw, maybe a smidge cooler.

Remember the average warmest day of the year at KSEA has yet to arrive, and the warmest average month is August (since the 1970s.)

[RentonHill]

Just now, RentonHillTC said:

ULL sort of just bleeds into the trough instead of rocketing out immediately

because that AK vortex comes all the way down instead of hanging up

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

ULL sort of just bleeds into the trough instead of rocketing out immediately

Pretty much the typical demise situation for cutoff lows.

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

This weekend into next week already feel like a lost cause. Should be a near repeat of what we just saw, maybe a smidge cooler.

Remember the average warmest day of the year at KSEA has yet to arrive, and the warmest average month is August (since the 1970s.)

Isnt warmest day tomorrow? 

[MossMan]

3 hours ago, RentonHillTC said:

i'll change it back later

Pete Carroll just changed his name as well. 

[Meatyorologist]

9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

True, and again that corresponds with the midsummer period that we've been harping on.

Obviously it's the historic peak of summer and of the 4CH's influence anyways, but it also has been the period that's seen the most disproportionate warming and 500mb height increase versus any other point in the year (aside from mid to late January, which perhaps coincidentally marks the seasonal inverse) as the expansion of the regional high pressure dome has created a persistent and sort of self-sustaining annual feedback loop across this stretch of calendar. One which at least for our latitude seems able to counteract any other sort of pattern forcing, be it ENSO or MJO driven. See James Jones' breakdown above for the nice visual evidence of it.

The climatological N/S temperature gradient during the summer makes our warm season averages seriously vulnerable to slight changes in 4CH strength.

That, and the 4CH is a pretty dynamic feature and interacts favorably with other Pacific high systems, as we've seen in recent years with its expansion north and westward. Causing more and stronger heatwaves ahead of the more broad AGW curve.

[BLI snowman]

20 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

18z much better - through next weekend atleast. Still looks to be a day or two with 2high temps, especially for PDX. hopefully fleeting. 

Looks perfectly disgusting for us here. Thursday is literally the only day on the entire run below 85 through Day 10. With another extended 90+ stretch beginning Sunday.

Edited August 1, 2022 by BLI snowman

[Meatyorologist]

5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Isnt warmest day tomorrow? 

I think so, in the next day or two.

Sun angles, on the other hand...

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Looks perfectly disgusting for us here. Thursday is literally the only day on the entire run below 85 through Day 10. With another extended 90+ stretch beginning Sunday.

I should have just left it at "better than the last run"

[Anti Marine Layer]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Pete Carroll just changed his name as well. 

He has COVID

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The climatological N/S temperature gradient during the summer makes our warm season averages seriously vulnerable to slight changes in 4CH strength.

That, and the 4CH is a pretty dynamic feature and interacts favorably with other Pacific high systems, as we've seen in recent years with its expansion north and westward. Causing more and stronger heatwaves ahead of the more broad AGW curve.

True. And while we may joke about our Sacramento Valley-fication up here, locations like Redding and Grants Pass, even with their own distinguishing topographical drivers that exacerbate their heat, really aren't too far from Portland and Seattle from a latitude standpoint. It stands to reason that a slight change to the annual midsummer 500mb calculus will have really noticeable impacts for us just a few hundred miles to their north.