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August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!


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1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

True. And while we may joke about our Sacramento Valley-fication up here, locations like Redding and Grants Pass, even with their own distinguishing topographical drivers that exacerbate their heat, really aren't too far from Portland and Seattle from a latitude standpoint. It stands to reason that a slight change to the annual midsummer 500mb calculus will have really noticeable impacts for us just a few hundred miles to their north.

The geographical similarities are pretty striking too, particularly for the Willamette Valley.

One could reason that in a distant past, Redding and Portland weren't such distant climatological cousins during the warm season.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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10 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

True, and again that corresponds with the midsummer period that we've been harping on.

Obviously it's the historic peak of summer and of the 4CH's influence anyways, but it also has been the period that's seen the most disproportionate warming and 500mb height increase versus any other point in the year (aside from mid to late January, which perhaps coincidentally marks the seasonal inverse) as the expansion of the regional high pressure dome has created a persistent and sort of self-sustaining annual feedback loop across this stretch of calendar. One which at least for our latitude seems able to counteract any other sort of pattern forcing, be it ENSO or MJO driven. See James Jones' breakdown above for the nice visual evidence of it.

Oh, I’m completely on board with the feedback effects of the ongoing drought. I think it’s absolutely a factor in its obvious expansion. But even though that can affect the long wave pattern in some ways, the pattern still has to be conducive to said expansion and, in turn, persistence. As it was, it had been arguably since 2018 since we’d seen a traditional mid summer heat-a-thon. I guess the argument could be made for late July 2020, but despite the back-to-back 100’s at PDX it wasn’t exactly a 21st century heavy hitter and the pattern wasn’t particularly impressive.

I guess I’d be more doom and gloom about throwing climo out the window if indeed last week’s inferno were the result of just a pure extension of the easterly-displaced ridge.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Very strange and not predicted in the forecast, but it dumped rain for about 10 minutes this morning then stopped.  It was forecasted to hit 81F today, but underperforming with our high only hitting 74F so far.  Some dark looking rain clouds to my southwest.

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Oh, I’m completely on board with the feedback effects of the ongoing drought. I think it’s absolutely a factor in its obvious expansion. But even though that can affect the long wave pattern in some ways, the pattern still has to be conducive to said expansion and, in turn, persistence. As it was, it had been arguably since 2018 since we’d seen a traditional mid summer heat-a-thon. I guess the argument could be made for late July 2020, but despite the back-to-back 100’s at PDX it wasn’t exactly a 21st century heavy hitter and the pattern wasn’t particularly impressive.

I guess I’d be more doom and gloom about throwing climo out the window if indeed last week’s inferno were the result of just a pure extension of the easterly-displaced ridge.

Kind of illustrates the point, though. It doesn't really take some heavy hitting 500mb block anymore for us to produce midsummer temps that at least by 20th century standards would have been near record level. It's a noticeable change and one that even with the basic ubiquity of a warming climate still appears to heavily outpace the rest of the year.

Edited by BLI snowman
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29 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Looks perfectly disgusting for us here. Thursday is literally the only day on the entire run below 85 through Day 10. With another extended 90+ stretch beginning Sunday.

Heres 12z vs 18z high temps for Pearson. Better short term! mid-range is worse but atleast not on the worst days. long term good. 100% will verify guaranteed

image.png.851233c07be4f49882bb648d4775b24b.png

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WILDFIRE UPDATE (Welcome to August Edition!)

NEW Known Wildfires started today! 8/1/22 

Washington - 6 (Six new fires broke out with all posing no significant threat, with the majority being controlled or already put out. A brushfire along I-90 is fast growing, but poses no significant threat, crews on the scene.  Likely started by cigarette.  No major fires in the state. Total raises from 18 to 23, again numbers don't reflect new fires that have been put out already.) Total: 23

Oregon - 21 (Sadly several fires have sparked over Oregon, a total of 21 new fires, most north of Klamath Falls due to lightning and sparked ash. Crews are working on containing as many as possible. Several fires have sparked west of Madras as well. Total has increased from 25 to 49.  The most fires Oregon has had at once so far this year.  Significant progress has been done on the major fires in Northern California along the Oregon-California border.) Total: 49

Idaho - 0 (No new fires, a handful put out. Two fires that were downgraded in significance yesterday have increased to being major fires again.  There are two major fires in the state. Total fires decreases from 9 to 6. ) Total: 6

British Columbia - 29 (Fires continue to increase, but thankfully many are naturally not spreading as BC Fire Crews are having a poor time at containing any actual fires.  There are two major fires, Lytton and Okanogan Falls which are named Nohomin Creek Fire and the Keremeos Creek Fire.  Total has jumped from sixty fires to seventy three.) Total: 73 

SMOKE UPDATE

Smoke models show significant smoke in California looping northward and into Oregon.  Portland metro will start seeing smoke by Tuesday and other parts of the state seeing it sooner.  Any smoke that reaches Washington will be high aloft with very little chance of it being low.  Smoke will be thickest around Medford, Ashland, and the Rogue Valley.  Haze can be expected in the mid layers around Eugene and Salem in the coming days if models remain true.  In the meantime, air advisories are in effect for Jackson County and Klamath County only. 

Smoke from BC's fires flew out the Fraser Valley and mixed into the air of the Lower Mainland and Whatcom County Monday morning, but it was quite light thankfully. The inner valleys of BC will see significant smoke as fires continue to burn. 

image.gif

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22 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The geographical similarities are pretty striking too, particularly for the Willamette Valley.

One could reason that in a distant past, Redding and Portland weren't such distant climatological cousins during the warm season.

There are some key geographical differences too. The Siskiyous and Klamaths are much higher than the relatively puny Oregon Coast Range up north. More like the Cascades in terms of rain and moisture shadowing.

The warm season climo in the Rogue Valley and Siskiyou County probably has more in common with Bend than with Portland or Eugene.

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18z GFS has a few different troughs swing through.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

ecmwf-weeklies-c00-namer-z500_anom-1659312000-1659312000-1663286400-20.thumb.gif.cce54d7834661dd3a8e0942b800b3ce9.gifAngry Tom Hanks GIF by Laff

Talk about some crazy fluctuation.  The Tom Hanks graphic nicely sums it up!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

I really really dont want to do work if you guys cant tell

Andrew will be with you shortly..

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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A lot of these upcoming troughs seem pretty Washinton centric.  Wish they would dig deeper.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 14.1"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 15

Lows 32 or below = 53

Highs 32 or below = 5

Lows 20 or below = 4

Highs 40 or below = 23

 

 

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16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

A lot of these upcoming troughs seem pretty Washinton centric.  Wish they would dig deeper.

Sounds familiar.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 35F (Dec 27, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 17F (Feb 23, 2022)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 36 (Most recent: Apr 17, 2022)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 5 (Most recent: Jan 17, 2022)
  • Total snowfall: 10.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: December 28, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 30.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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  • Longtimer

I have been on vacation for 2+ weeks.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Kind of illustrates the point, though. It doesn't really take some heavy hitting 500mb block anymore for us to produce midsummer temps that at least by 20th century standards would have been near record level. It's a noticeable change and one that even with the basic ubiquity of a warming climate still appears to heavily outpace the rest of the year.

I think there’s a difference between looking at the larger, 500mb picture compared to what are the more persistent feedback affects which a likely more appreciable at the lower and mid levels. I’d say it’s pretty reasonable to assume that a 590dm ridge at 500mb is better equipped now more than ever to get us to 100 degrees based on that. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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4 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Nice. Where is that?

Silver Falls I think

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Location: Bethany, OR at about 250'

Snowfall:

     2021/2022: 6"

     2020/2021: 4.5"

     2019/2020: 1"

     2018/2019: 3.7"

     2017/2018: 5.5"

     2016/2017: 18"

     2015/2016: 1"

     2014/2015: 0"

     2013/2014: 9"

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31 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

In other news, our mortgage balance dropped below 100k today! No analog for this!!!

Congrats man

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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KSEA topped out at 81F with midlevel convection and thin smoke blotting out what otherwise would have been a day in the upper 80s.

Tomorrow we'll cool some more, potentially avoiding 80F altogether. Thursday hopefully we avoid 70F.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 45.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; February 24th, 2022

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

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59 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Pleasant afternoon. 

BD60578E-D412-4D11-9928-6FBC3AAA0A38.jpeg

Those Falls look Silvery! 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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  • Longtimer

Only 1 day over 100 here so far, that was in June, and only 4 other days over 90 total this summer, so far....  this latest "heat wave" had the perfect balance from here to the coast to make it not so oppressive like most of you have had to deal with.  Wish we had gotten more than 1 day over 90 during this latest stretch though, but nope.  Crazy thing was on a couple of the days, it was 80 here, and 90-93 just 7 miles east in Montesano!!

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10 hours ago, Phil said:

Btw it looks like we’re having a big family gathering in Everett next summer! And possibly another excursion in Leavenworth as well. Haven’t been up there since 2019, am looking forward to it already.

Only time I’ve ever experienced non-tropical weather in July during the last 20+ years was in the NW. Would be nice to steal another few weeks!

Leavenworth from Everett? Gonna be passing by me, feel free to say hi!

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43 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Happy hour beers at Narrows Brewing today. Actually sat in the sun!

4F909A5E-2256-479F-BC7D-3B635C0FF4FB.jpeg

Beautiful view.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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15 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

Leavenworth from Everett? Gonna be passing by me, feel free to say hi!

I’m down for that.

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That first cool week of July saved K-Falls from breaking their record warmest. Still ended up being top-tier with a mean of 70.

Warmest Julys KLMT
#1: 2014 - 71.5 (high 90.6)
#2: 2021 - 71.0 (high 91.7)
#3: 1959 - 70.5
#4: 2013 - 70.3 (was #3 until last year)
#5: 2022 - 70.0 (high 90.3)

Honerable mentions of 2017, 2003, and 2006 have means 69.3 (yup, the same down to the tenth degree). 2017 is placed above for warmer average high than 2003 or 2006 (89.2 vs. 87.5 or 86.5). 

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Ashland, KY Weather

'21-'22 Cold Season

Snowfall - 16.1"
December: 0.1"
January: 9.9"
February: 1.3"
March: 4.8"

Snow days: 10 - 4.8" - 3/12
Cold Highs (32 or below): 7
Coolest: 21 (Jan 7th)
Extreme Lows (below 10): 4 
Minimum: 5 (Jan 22nd)
Max wind: 40mph (Feb 18th)

Warm Season Stats

Thunders: 39
3/6, 3/23, 4/7, 4/11, 4/30, 5/1, 5/3, 5/6, 5/14, 5/16
5/20, 5/21, 5/27, 6/2, 6/6, 6/8, 6/13, 6/17, 6/22, 6/25
6/26, 6/27, 7/1, 7/2, 7/5, 7/6, 7/8, 7/12, 7/17, 7/18
7/21, 7/23, 7/27, 7/31, 8/1, 8/4, 8/5, 8/6, 8/7, 

Tornado Watches/Warnings: 2 / 0 
Severe T'storm Watches/Warnings: 4 / 3
Frequent Lightning: 5 (5/20), (6/13), (7/6), (7/21), 8/1, 
Hailstorms: 0
Max Wind: 50mph (6/13), ~55 (7/6)

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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  • Longtimer

0.08” of RAIN at SLE.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 82.13" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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  • Longtimer

At least PDX avoided 90 today. A small victory. F*ck you heat!!!

88/66 here with smoky haze, some clouds and even a brief shower in the late morning. Would be nice to drop the low a little lower by midnight.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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