August 2022 PNW Observations and Discussion - 1956 Redux!1!!1!

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I meant your PMs. Are you having short term memory issues lately?

No.  Just other issues.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z GFS looks absolutely horrible for the weekend and beyond. 100+ again for Portland on Sunday.

Portland could make a run at their 100+ record this year.

[Doinko]

32 minutes ago, Phil said:

Btw it looks like we’re having a big family gathering in Everett next summer! And possibly another excursion in Leavenworth as well. Haven’t been up there since 2019, am looking forward to it already.

Only time I’ve ever experienced non-tropical weather in July during the last 20+ years was in the NW. Would be nice to steal another few weeks!

Now we're going to have another major and very long heatwave then...

[Kayla]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I will check.  Almost afraid to after that one.

Also...I think most people would call the 11 degree drop impressive.

11 degree drop in one hour during a marine air push in the middle of the night isn't exactly breaking news...

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Kayla said:

11 degree drop in one hour during a marine air push in the middle of the night isn't exactly breaking news...

Fine.

[snow_wizard]

At least the GFS kicks that stupid cutoff low inland for another push of cool air next week.  Can't hope for much better in August.

[Cascadia_Wx]

3 minutes ago, Kayla said:

11 degree drop in one hour during a marine air push in the middle of the night isn't exactly breaking news...

Especially on the back end of an historically long heatwave. The “crash” the next few days is nothing. Any sort of 500mb driven dynamism in our summer climate seems to be a thing of the past.

[AlTahoe]

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Portland could make a run at their 100+ record this year.

After a very cool start to summer in Tahoe this last week has been very hot. This feels like the longest stretch of warm nights/mornings that I have experienced up here. Usually during heatwaves we will have 1-3 nights that stay in the 50's and then it will drop back into the 40's. We are going on 9 days of lows in the 50's which is very unusual. 

[Deweydog]

Clouds!

[Mr Marine Layer]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Clouds!

Blessed monsoonal moisture.

[RentonHill]

Seen more monarch butterflies this summer than I can remember in recent years. 
 

[Mr Marine Layer]

4 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

After a very cool start to summer in Tahoe this last week has been very hot. This feels like the longest stretch of warm nights/mornings that I have experienced up here. Usually during heatwaves we will have 1-3 nights that stay in the 50's and then it will drop back into the 40's. We are going on 9 days of lows in the 50's which is very unusual. 

Today looks like it should be low 70s there.

[Cloud]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Some people work outside and like doing other things outside too. You can gear up for rain and cool weather, not a lot you can do when it’s blistering heat besides maybe swim.

As an example my company is currently deploying a new Datacenter in the SODO area and we contracted a unionized company to do some outdoors construction work and they were all off last week due to the heat. They didn’t have to in the fall and winter.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

Seen more monarch butterflies this summer than I can remember in recent years. 

Weird. My wife said the same thing yesterday completely out of the blue. 

 

Edited August 1, 2022 by Deweydog

[TacomaWx]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Clouds!

Thanks Al. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Weird. My wife said the same thing yesterday completely out of the blue. 

They recently got put on the endangered species list due to declining numbers

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/show/monarch-butterfly-declared-endangered-amid-declining-numbers

[AlTahoe]

5 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Today looks like it should be low 70s there.

Yeah the extensive cloud cover is def going to help. It's also keeping temps up at night. 

[Mr Marine Layer]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

They recently got put on the endangered species list due to declining numbers

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/show/monarch-butterfly-declared-endangered-amid-declining-numbers

Unlike farting cows, they do not pose an apocalyptic threat, so it's actually sad when they become endangered.

[RentonHill]

14 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Weird. My wife said the same thing yesterday completely out of the blue. 

 

Hi honey

[ShawniganLake]

38 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

At least the GFS kicks that stupid cutoff low inland for another push of cool air next week.  Can't hope for much better in August.

The GEM keeps it cutoff indefinitely. 

[snow_wizard]

SEA -12 vs yesterday now.

It definitely seems like the warm bias of the GFS for SEA is the worst with SW wind onshore flow.  Even the ECMWF can bust high with that.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

The GEM keeps it cutoff indefinitely. 

Could happen, but the ECMWF and GFS are in the same camp now.

[RentonHill]

GEM says that ULL is now a permanent feature 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

The GEM keeps it cutoff indefinitely. 

But the GEM is also way more reasonable with temps the next week 

[snow_wizard]

28 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

They recently got put on the endangered species list due to declining numbers

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/show/monarch-butterfly-declared-endangered-amid-declining-numbers

That makes me sad.  I hate seeing things go extinct or in danger of it  It really surprises me given the wide range they have.

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

GEM says that ULL is now a permanent feature 

Would be a pretty prolific fake cold pattern by late November.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That makes me sad.  I hate seeing things go extinct or in danger of it  It really surprises me given the wide range they have.

Me too. I guess we can try to focus on our similarities more. I always like to see people from opposite sites of the political spectrum both valuing nature. It’s more common than advertised.

[Chewbacca Defense]

I can't remember who was showing the temp plots over the previous 5 days, but I set that up for my weather station data.  It's a fun way to look at these events and the subsequent cool down.

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That makes me sad.  I hate seeing things go extinct or in danger of it  It really surprises me given the wide range they have.

I think the fir forests in central Mexico where they winter are being destroyed which is a a big part of it. Very interesting forests high in the central Mexican mountains. Oyamel firs. Always surprises me how much it looks like a forest that could be in our region.

[Cascadia_Wx]

The quick return to extreme heat on the operational run still looking like a bit of an outlier on the GEFS. Although it wouldn’t surprise me to see the mean gradually trend toward the operational like it did for the failed troughy period this week 

Edited August 1, 2022 by Cascadia_Wx

[GobBluth]

5 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

GEM says that ULL is now a permanent feature 

That's a prolific Cascade thunderstorm pattern.

[FroYoBro]

It’s raining. 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Me too. I guess we can try to focus on our similarities more. I always like to see people from opposite sites of the political spectrum both valuing nature. It’s more common than advertised.

It is.  I have always been concerned about the environment.  There's a happy medium to accommodate people and nature.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, FroYoBro said:

It’s raining. 

At least you scored a dry Sunday.

[RentonHill]

4 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I can't remember who was showing the temp plots over the previous 5 days, but I set that up for my weather station data.  It's a fun way to look at these events and the subsequent cool down.

 

I was only using hourly so it doesnt show the min/max perfectly but it gets the point across. Interesting that last night was my warmest midnight temp of the heatwave and i really didnt "cool down" until after sunrise. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

That's a prolific Cascade thunderstorm pattern.

Looking more and more like I might be off the grid again in the last half of August. Hope I don’t come back to a perma-ban this time!

[RentonHill]

7 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

That's a prolific Cascade thunderstorm pattern.

thats suboptimal

[Deweydog]

Raining here too. BIG drops.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

73F and smoky sun. Been clear all night and still today besides the smoke. Not sure what all the talk is on here about a troughy period. It doesn't seem that abnormal to me like the last 8 days.

[Doinko]

25 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Would be a pretty prolific fake cold pattern by late November.

Didn't we manage some snow with "fake cold" before? In Jan 2016 I think.

[TT-SEA]

16 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looking more and more like I might be off the grid again in the last half of August. Hope I don’t come back to a perma-ban this time!

That is not what happened of course.   

[The Blob]

Alright, fighting on the first day of the month!

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, Doiinko said:

Didn't we manage some snow with "fake cold" before? In Jan 2016 I think.

Truly fake cold patterns inherently don’t produce snow due to the warm mid levels. We can score small scale hybrid patterns though, like 2016 thanks to the existing surface cold. That one was really unique as a weak inside slider cutoff over Northern CA and then intensified as it drifted north. That snow was “colder” than any of the snow we had during 2016-17.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Man, PDX just can’t buy a 70+ low with this pattern  

[Cascadia_Wx]

God that long range ensemble mean is trash 

[Chewbacca Defense]

32 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said:

I was only using hourly so it doesnt show the min/max perfectly but it gets the point across. Interesting that last night was my warmest midnight temp of the heatwave and i really didnt "cool down" until after sunrise. 

It's definitely a good visual, I am getting half hour intervals off of my weather station.  We definitely started seeing the cooling around 10 last night.  I almost killed the A/C and opened the windows, but I wasn't sure how cool it was really going to get.

 

I need to get back in to my weather/climate spreadsheets.  I got out of the habit of keeping them up when I wasn't doing much spreadsheet stuff through work, but now that I am again I'll have to get back into it.

[GobBluth]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

God that long range ensemble mean is trash 

Could be worse, but I'd assume it will move towards the hotter operational in the next few days. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, GobBluth said:

Could be worse, but I'd assume it will move towards the hotter operational in the next few days. 

Operational is cooler than the mean in the 240+ hour range 

[Randyc321]

2 hours ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

I never really understood people hating the heat (especially when it's relatively temporary) while having AC in their home.

Hate is a strong word.  I like to be outside during the summer as much as possible.  I also like to enjoy being outside as much as possible.  Does that help you understand?

[Mr Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, RentonHillTC said:

GEM says that ULL is now a permanent feature 

Let 'er spin