Phil Posted July 20, 2016 Report Share Posted July 20, 2016 You have not missed La Nina. Hot summers and warm winters!I have a little bit, at least as far as winter is concerned. La Niña winters can be quite dynamic here, actually. Big phased cyclones cutting over the mountains w/ strong frontal passages and the occasional midwinter severe event. Just not many pure snowstorms. La Niña summers are another story. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted July 22, 2016 Report Share Posted July 22, 2016 I have a little bit, at least as far as winter is concerned. La Niña winters can be quite dynamic here, actually. Big phased cyclones cutting over the mountains w/ strong frontal passages and the occasional midwinter severe event. Just not many pure snowstorms. La Niña summers are another story. Models seem to be reeling in on the strength of this Nina. What do you think Phil, are they onto something. http://iri.columbia.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/figure4.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 22, 2016 Report Share Posted July 22, 2016 I think they're underplaying it. Still sticking with my -1.1 to -1.3 monthly ONI prediction. Will be fun to track. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 22, 2016 Report Share Posted July 22, 2016 Looking less than thrilling right now... I am sure there is yet another round of strengthening coming soon. But all the other rounds have failed to produce a robust Nina. I am still hoping for a weak Nina overall this coming winter to maximize our chances for blocking and cold. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.7.21.2016.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 22, 2016 Report Share Posted July 22, 2016 Something is wrong with those maps in the EPAC, I think the 1km version is better. The CDAS data is much more robust with the Niña signature. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png Niño 3.4 temperatures http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 22, 2016 Report Share Posted July 22, 2016 Looking less than thrilling right now... I am sure there is yet another round of strengthening coming soon. But all the other rounds have failed to produce a robust Nina. I am still hoping for a weak Nina overall this coming winter to maximize our chances for blocking and cold. Region 3.4 was at -0.6 on the 7/13 update. For comparison, it was -1.1 in mid July 2010, -0.5 in mid July 2007 (a very east based Nina early on), -1.4 in mid July 1998, and -0.2 in mid July 1995. So it's running behind the stronger Nino to Nina transitions in recent decades but a bit ahead of years like 1995. 1995-96 still wound up being a borderline moderate level Nina. A strong Nina feels unlikely at this point but further cooling will undoubtedly occur and it looks as if it'll be a sizable enough event. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted July 22, 2016 Report Share Posted July 22, 2016 BTW, 1995-96 was a winter that literally anyone in the northern half of the country would be pretty happy with repeating. Probably one of the most dynamic winters in our lifetimes. Tons of blocking and an extremely active southern and northern jet. Good combo. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted July 22, 2016 Report Share Posted July 22, 2016 BTW, 1995-96 was a winter that literally anyone in the northern half of the country would be pretty happy with repeating. Probably one of the most dynamic winters in our lifetimes. Tons of blocking and an extremely active southern and northern jet. Good combo.Love your insight, thanks man Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 23, 2016 Report Share Posted July 23, 2016 BTW, 1995-96 was a winter that literally anyone in the northern half of the country would be pretty happy with repeating. Probably one of the most dynamic winters in our lifetimes. Tons of blocking and an extremely active southern and northern jet. Good combo. 1970-71 was another winter in that vein. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 23, 2016 Report Share Posted July 23, 2016 The latest CFS ensembles show neutral ENSO this winter. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 25, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 25, 2016 The latest CFS ensembles show neutral ENSO this winter. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 25, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 25, 2016 1970-71 was another winter in that vein. 1970-71 was a decent winter, but it came close to being great. One of those winters where the real goods failed to get south of Whatcom County, but areas further south still had some snow and cold. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 25, 2016 Report Share Posted July 25, 2016 ENSO looks to be positive neutral by new years. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 25, 2016 Report Share Posted July 25, 2016 ENSO looks to be positive neutral by new years. Relishing the role of contrarian again? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 25, 2016 Report Share Posted July 25, 2016 ENSO looks to be positive neutral by new years. This always plays in my head after your posts. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJ_R-G_i4Xk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 25, 2016 Report Share Posted July 25, 2016 Relishing the role of contrarian again? I like to bring realism to the table. Likely that this will not be a true Nina. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 25, 2016 Report Share Posted July 25, 2016 I like to bring realism to the table. Likely that this will not be a true Nina.What makes you say that? Niño 3.4 is already in La Niña territory. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 25, 2016 Report Share Posted July 25, 2016 What makes you say that? Niño 3.4 is already in La Niña territory.He lives and dies by the CFS. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 26, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 26, 2016 I like to bring realism to the table. Likely that this will not be a true Nina. We don't need it to be. A Nino is absolutely out of the question so we'll be fine. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 26, 2016 Report Share Posted July 26, 2016 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 26, 2016 Report Share Posted July 26, 2016 #ninastrong Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted July 26, 2016 Report Share Posted July 26, 2016 We don't need it to be. A Nino is absolutely out of the question so we'll be fine. I agree. It should be at least a decent winter. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted July 26, 2016 Report Share Posted July 26, 2016 Everything I can see would suggest a weak la nina is most likely, maybe a tri monthly min of (-.4 to -.9) being the range I am looking at. I think a stronger la nina will occur next winter, somewhat mirroring the el nino fail followed by a strong nino the last two years. Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 26, 2016 Report Share Posted July 26, 2016 I'm still thinking -1.1 to -1.3 for a monthly ONI bottom. The Niño 3.4 anomaly I'd already ~ -1.0, with a multi-week trade wind burst now underway, strongest in over 4yrs. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 27, 2016 For one thing that is too high even for the current SST anoms. Past history says warm ENSO is impossible this winter. GFS is up to it's usual tricks again. I can't believe you are actually taking this seriously. The thing is even slightly warm ENSO is fine for us. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 27, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 27, 2016 I'm still thinking -1.1 to -1.3 for a monthly ONI bottom. The Niño 3.4 anomaly I'd already ~ -1.0, with a multi-week trade wind burst now underway, strongest in over 4yrs. Between that and the extensive cold subsurface anoms I am beyond puzzled what the CFS is picking up on. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 27, 2016 Report Share Posted July 27, 2016 Everything I can see would suggest a weak la nina is most likely, maybe a tri monthly min of (-.4 to -.9) being the range I am looking at. I think a stronger la nina will occur next winter, somewhat mirroring the el nino fail followed by a strong nino the last two years. I'm still thinking -1.1 to -1.3 for a monthly ONI bottom. The Niño 3.4 anomaly I'd already ~ -1.0, with a multi-week trade wind burst now underway, strongest in over 4yrs. These ideas are not mutually exclusive. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 27, 2016 Report Share Posted July 27, 2016 Between that and the extensive cold subsurface anoms I am beyond puzzled what the CFS is picking up on. I'm guessing it's because cooling stalled for a bit. Once it resumes, it will probably trend colder again. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 28, 2016 Report Share Posted July 28, 2016 Would a weaker initial -ENSO event lessen the chances for a multi-year Niña? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 29, 2016 Report Share Posted July 29, 2016 Would a weaker initial -ENSO event lessen the chances for a multi-year Niña?I don't think so, see 1983-86. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 29, 2016 Report Share Posted July 29, 2016 EPS is impressive with the trade winds, would send us into moderate territory by mid/late August if it verifies, at least for awhile: Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 30, 2016 Report Share Posted July 30, 2016 Just a massive trade wind burst on the 12z ECMWF/EPS in the 6-10 day range, through the 11-15 day range on the 12z EPS. Even stronger than 12z yesterday or the previous 00z. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 30, 2016 Report Share Posted July 30, 2016 Just a massive trade wind burst on the 12z ECMWF/EPS in the 6-10 day range. Even stronger than 00z. Massive. Terminology implies that we should expect massive changes in ENSO. Like ice floating in Region 3.4 by the middle of August. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 30, 2016 Report Share Posted July 30, 2016 Massive. Terminology implies that we should expect massive changes in ENSO. Like ice floating in Region 3.4 by the middle of August. This one is massive, strongest in 6 years. Could really knock up the thermocline. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 30, 2016 Author Report Share Posted July 30, 2016 Just a massive trade wind burst on the 12z ECMWF/EPS in the 6-10 day range, through the 11-15 day range on the 12z EPS. Even stronger than 12z yesterday or the previous 00z. Very good news. I'm comfortable we have basically entered a Nina, but I would like to see it get a little more well defined. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted August 1, 2016 Report Share Posted August 1, 2016 Some colder members showing up on the CFS over the last couple of days. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Sea.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 1, 2016 Report Share Posted August 1, 2016 Latest update... Nina looks more organized. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.8.1.2016.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brennan Posted August 2, 2016 Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 Why is the southern 40* of the earth’s ocean so chilly... and the northern 40% so warm? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted August 2, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 2, 2016 Why is the southern 40* of the earth’s ocean so chilly... and the northern 40% so warm? There is probably some kind of a cycle involved with that. That isn't a thing I've studied up on very much. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 3, 2016 Report Share Posted August 3, 2016 Why is the southern 40* of the earth’s ocean so chilly... and the northern 40% so warm? Might have something to with the above normal sea ice coverage around Antarctica. Some kind of cold cycle going on in the Southern Ocean. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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