January 2014 in the PNW

[Phil]

This is the same concept as the LRC. But yet, whenever it's been brought up before, you've never said a word.

 

This seems to be an attempt to take away from those of us who have been talking about the end of the month/beginning of February time frame for quite a while. Obviously nothing is set in stone, but things are looking better.

Mad props to you if this regime shift comes to fruition.

 

You've been on the money lately, in fact you were the first one to point out the possibility of a shift toward the end of the month.

 

Just feel like pointing that out to the board.

[Bryant]

Mad props to you if this regime shift comes to fruition.

 

You've been on the money lately, in fact you were the first one to point out the possibility of a shift toward the end of the month.

 

Just feel like pointing that out to the board.

I appreciate it Phil. You've been on the money as well. The call was based off MJO, so if it works out I'll be pretty happy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think it will really tighten its grip this coming week. Probably going to be cold and gray for most of us.

 

Its 35 in Salem, so yeah its well underway in the Willamette Valley.

[Jesse]

I think a lot of people have been talking about the late January/early Feburary time frame. I think KVUO snowman said something about it way back at the beginning of December. I have been saying it since December as well.

 

Rather than portraying those who have been making the call as rogue geniuses, I would say it is more accurate to acknowledge that something around this time frame has been the general consensus of the entire forum for quite some time.

[Jesse]

PDX has mixed out a little. Up to 48 there. They may hit 50 today.

 

At least they managed 29 this morning.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think a lot of people have been talking about the late January/early Feburary time frame. I think KVUO snowman said something about it way back at the beginning of December. I have been saying it since December as well.

 

Rather than portraying those who have been making the call as rogue geniuses, I would say it is more accurate to acknowledge that something around this time frame has been the general consensus of the entire forum for quite some time.

 

I think our chances for something good in that timeframe are still far from certain...But one would think that at some point something has to give.

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful day... here is my daughter trying to take the dog on a walk.    Not sure who was walking who though.  

 

[Deweydog]

I think a lot of people have been talking about the late January/early Feburary time frame. I think KVUO snowman said something about it way back at the beginning of December. I have been saying it since December as well.

 

Rather than portraying those who have been making the call as rogue geniuses, I would say it is more accurate to acknowledge that something around this time frame has been the general consensus of the entire forum for quite some time.

 

Like I said, common sense around here isn't all that common.  Late winter was a good call, made even better by the fact we got hit early.  It was just very taboo to talk about it just after getting hit as you had to be careful not to be labeled as being too negative in thinking we were maybe gonna have to wait seven weeks or so before another real threat.  

 

At any rate, my genius is pretty suspect.  I was about a week late with my late November call and at this point the late January part of the late January/early February call looks pretty bad.  I think the big difference is just being able to stay focused on the big picture and not being so sensitive to the background noise around here.  Sometimes just sticking things out makes you look smart and centered.

[Deweydog]

Beautiful day... here is my daughter trying to take the dog on a walk.    Not sure who was walking who though.  

 

 

That looks like Dewey!

[TT-SEA]

Logically what the GFS shows makes sense... a total collapse of the ridge and lots of rain for CA and colder weather here.

 

But the ECMWF is very different and I just don't buy what the GFS shows yet.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z doesn't back off the nice mountain snow producing pattern in the LR.

[Jesse]

18z doesn't back off the nice mountain snow producing pattern in the LR.

At face value there would be a lot of valley snow too.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z doesn't back off the nice mountain snow producing pattern in the LR.

Yep.

 

At face value there would be a lot of valley snow too.

Yeah, and timing moved ahead 18-24 hours too. Important to note that.

 

Hoping to see improvements on the Ensembles. Whether that means a pattern change to cooler, wetter with mountain snow, or colder, modified arctic air and the threat for low land snow that's fine too as long as there is precip.

[BLI snowman]

I think a lot of people have been talking about the late January/early Feburary time frame. I think KVUO snowman said something about it way back at the beginning of December. I have been saying it since December as well.

 

Rather than portraying those who have been making the call as rogue geniuses, I would say it is more accurate to acknowledge that something around this time frame has been the general consensus of the entire forum for quite some time.

 

It;s been obvious for awhile that that period is seriously thirsty for something from a climo perspective. No major events since 1996 in the January 24 to February 10 timeframe. PDX's coldest high for that period is 38! It's unprecedented and it's hard to see it continuing for much longer. 

[BLI snowman]

Logically what the GFS shows makes sense... a total collapse of the ridge and lots of rain for CA and colder weather here.

 

But the ECMWF is very different and I just don't buy what the GFS shows yet.

 

Euro is too ridge-happy, GFS is too storm-happy. Meet somewhere in the middle.

[luminen]

Can't we just get 55F and some sunshine at the lower elevations? 

[Phil]

While the stratosphere @ 50mb has been torching this winter, we're starting to see the anticipated shifts as the PV is bombarded by tropically forced breakers and the westerlies associated with the low tropopause/+QBO begin to lose vigor.

 

Notice the perturbation of the PV and the gradual cooling of the equatorial regions:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp50anim.shtml

 

For another perspective, here's where we are now with the vortex at 50mb: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014011818&var=HGT&lev=50mb&hour=000

 

 

Hour 120: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014011818&var=HGT&lev=50mb&hour=120

 

The GFS wants to regather the vortex at 50mb but gets a SSW going at and above 10mb. Let's see if this initial perturbation is enough to get the dominoes going..

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I would like some input from some of our (advanced) members on this possible pattern change.

[TT-SEA]

Can't we just get 55F and some sunshine at the lower elevations? 

 

53 here today with wall-to-wall sunshine all day.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensembles weren't bad. No real consensus, but the operational is certainly not an outlier.

[Skagit Weather]

53 here today with wall-to-wall sunshine all day.  

First day here that it hasn't cleared out, even though the high of 44F was only about a degree cooler than yesterday's.

[snow_wizard]

Ensembles weren't bad. No real consensus, but the operational is certainly not an outlier.

A 160W ridge axis is fraught with uncertainty. Very easy for things to go wrong with that. I'm hoping future runs will trend the post retrogression block further east. Certainly could happen. We all know how things can trend too far east when a ridge is initially shown at 150.

[snow_wizard]

First day here that it hasn't cleared out, even though the high of 44F was only about a degree cooler than yesterday's.

Totally weird how you switched places with the central Puget Sound today. We cleared out and you didn't. Next week is when the inversion will really get going. Hopefully we can manage to get some solidly below normal temps with it. With weak offshore flow all week and persistently clear skies above the inversion for several days it could easily get pretty cold.

 

Yesterday was pretty nippy here with a 38-32 high/low. Today was 47-29.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GFS Ensembles

 

Not spectacular, but not horrible either. Lots of members -5c or so

 

Portland

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

18z GFS Ensembles

 

Not spectacular, but not horrible either. Lots of members -5c or so

 

Portland

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

Much better than a week ago. I feel like were getting somewhere.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I have to say i'm very interested to see what model is right for 240hrs from now. They are so far apart. Something to watch.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Makes more sense for a cooler and active pattern to develop. And not because I want snow.

[Gradient Keeper]

Much better than a week ago. I feel like were getting somewhere.

Oh, yeah without a doubt. Well as myself and others were saying a week ago let's see what the models show in 5-7 days and there sure has been vast improvement since that time. Maybe in another 5 days they will look golden. Maybe not too.

 

I have to say i'm very interested to see what model is right for 240hrs from now. They are so far apart. Something to watch.

Yeah. Rooting for the GFS lol not going to lie. Right now it's the GFS versus the world. GEM/EURO are in completely different worlds.

 

Makes more sense for a cooler and active pattern to develop. And not because I want snow.

Yeah.

[HighlandExperience]

Makes more sense for a cooler and active pattern to develop. And not because I want snow.

 

Getting hit hard early in Feb. will redeem this winter 

 

I hope the EURO is wrong.

[FroYoBro]

I think a much wetter pattern with low snow levels is pretty likely at the end of the month. It will be nice to see some kind of change because this ridge is getting a little  boring. 

[MossMan]

Wasn't a bad day around Arlington, the fog lifted around 10AM but we needed to go shopping in Mt Vernon and it was a little more on the cloudy up there.

 

When was the last extended duration arctic event in February? If I remember correctly we had a pretty good Feb back in the late 1980's. Maybe a repeat coming?

[Phil]

When was the last extended duration arctic event in February? If I remember correctly we had a pretty good Feb back in the late 1980's. Maybe a repeat coming?

2011?

[Phil]

Yeah. Rooting for the GFS lol not going to lie. Right now it's the GFS versus the world. GEM/EURO are in completely different worlds.

 

Should weight the ensembles higher than the OP/control runs at this stage. The GGEM/GFS ensembles look good (western trough/-EPO) after 240hrs. The ECMWF ensembles totally disagree, though. That's a real problem, as the ECM ensembles are the by far best when it comes to verification at 500mb.

[MossMan]

2011?

2011 was great, but I am wondering about longer duration events with lots of cold and snow earlier in the month.

 

Considering the 2011 event was at the end of the month, it was great with a few days below freezing with over a foot of snow on the ground!

[snow_wizard]

2011?

Yeah...not that long ago. Good Februaries seem to come in clusters here so that could be a good sign.

[snow_wizard]

2011 was great, but I am wondering about longer duration events with lots of cold and snow earlier in the month.

 

Considering the 2011 event was at the end of the month, it was great with a few days below freezing with over a foot of snow on the ground!

1985, 1989, 1990

[snow_wizard]

Should weight the ensembles higher than the OP/control runs at this stage. The GGEM/GFS ensembles look good (western trough/-EPO) after 240hrs. The ECMWF ensembles totally disagree, though. That's a real problem, as the ECM ensembles are the by far best when it comes to verification at 500mb.

The ECMWF ensemble mean isn't terrible as you get toward day 13 and 14. It is worth noting the GFS ensemble picked up on the MJO wave that is about to emerge in 6 well before any of the European MJO models. Maybe this season is more suited for the GFS.

[Skagit Weather]

2011 was great, but I am wondering about longer duration events with lots of cold and snow earlier in the month.

 

Considering the 2011 event was at the end of the month, it was great with a few days below freezing with over a foot of snow on the ground!

Yep. As I have stated before I will take a February 2011 repeat any time of the year.

Good Times

 

Courtesy of Skagit Valley Herald

http://bloximages.chicago2.vip.townnews.com/goskagit.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/c/fb/cfb480e0-1d92-55f5-b852-1bef5a4214df/4e0de536e9889.image.jpg

Courtesy of Komo News

http://media.komonews.com/images/110223_buried_car.jpg

[MossMan]

Two years ago we had a lot of snow. I miss snow.

[TT-SEA]

Interesting image:

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2014/590x398_01162005_screen-shot-2014-01-16-at-3.05.29-pm.png