January 2014 in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

The question is whether the ridge is gone for good or comes back after a few days.

 

 

It almost certainly has to be gone for at least 6 weeks.     

[Guest Monty67]

Beautiful weather the last few days. 

 

This morning I snowshoed up to Snow lake near Alpental. Arrived at the top around sunrise. The snow in the backcountry is pretty hard and crusty (requiring crampons in places). We need fresh snow!

 

Lake is beautiful and frozen over!

 

 

Beautiful pictures.

 

I wonder how thick that ice is?

 

I have been reading the last few days about how many lakes in the BC interior are not even frozen over. It is the first time people can remember seeing completely open water on these lakes in January, some are even at higher elevations as well.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This cyclist goes for a little ride, but not on his bike! Crown Point, Oregon. January 20th, 2014

 

http://youtu.be/RqWamgy9aJI

What is the fastest wind there ever?

[TT-SEA]

Trying to record in 100+ mph winds is interesting for sure...

 

 

I hit 104 mph before my gauge broke.

 

Fellow weather geek Matt Sloan hit 115 mph just after 3 this afternoon.  It was insane today!

 

 

100mph wind and there are still low clouds in the view!    

[Guest Monty67]

Words can't describe how much fun the forum has been to read lately.

We could always start a new thread that was strictly dedicated to posting about cold and snow possibilities. You could just stay over there to read and post and only choose to read about the other possibilities that exist if you wanted to.

[FroYoBro]

100mph wind and there are still low clouds in the view!    

We live in such a shithole! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wow we can type bad words? cool.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Pretty much every model and index forecast out there says cold February. You would sure never know it to read some of the posts on here. The pattern will be far different at months end than it has been for the past several weeks.

 

The pattern had better be different in February than it has been the last 6 weeks! We need storms! The last measurable rain here in Socal was December 19 and the season totals in most of CA are absolutely pathetic right now. The PNW definitely needs some precipitation as well along with mountain snow.

 

I am with you, though, that I think there is going to be a major change by early February, because it seems that winter hasn't even started here in all of CA, and it can't stay dry like this forever. It would be very abnormal for this level of dryness to continue on for much longer, especially going into February and March.

[Tyler Mode]

Talking with Matt Sloan, he's really into the wind/gradients/anemometers etc, he said there was a reported 148 mph back in the 60s or 70s?

 

Other than that, this is the highest I've heard of being recorded.

What is the fastest wind there ever?

 

[Tyler Mode]

Lol...they are part of the reason the winds were so strong!  Very deep cold pool east side (but not deep enough to spill over the Cascades) and a very strong inversion.  Just 400' above these winds, the winds were light and temps were in the mid 50s.

100mph wind and there are still low clouds in the view!    

 

[Skagit Weather]

Lol...they are part of the reason the winds were so strong!  Very deep cold pool east side (but not deep enough to spill over the Cascades) and a very strong inversion.  Just 400' above these winds, the winds were light and temps were in the mid 50s.

Thanks for sharing these videos, they are truly amazing and they inspire me to go down there and experience the winds. I can barely imagine 100 mph winds!

[TT-SEA]

Lol...they are part of the reason the winds were so strong!  Very deep cold pool east side (but not deep enough to spill over the Cascades) and a very strong inversion.  Just 400' above these winds, the winds were light and temps were in the mid 50s.

 

 

I know... I made the comment out of fascination for such extremes co-existing.      

[Jesse]

Beautiful pictures.

 

I wonder how thick that ice is?

 

I have been reading the last few days about how many lakes in the BC interior are not even frozen over. It is the first time people can remember seeing completely open water on these lakes in January, some are even at higher elevations as well.

 

Where have you been reading this? I would like some links.

 

I would imagine they have seen much warmer Januaries, even in recent years.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wow this place is hot tonight.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Where have you been reading this? I would like some links.

 

I would imagine they have seen much warmer Januaries, even in recent years.

Yes that's strange. I have property near republic wa and just a couple weeks ago I checked a couple of lakes people had been ice fishing on and the ice was 8-10 inches thick. This is only 12 miles from Canada as crow flies.

[snow_wizard]

Mini Arctic front on the 0z at day 11. Even some lowland snow. The retrogression is less convoluted on this run.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Mini Arctic front on the 0z at day 11. Even some lowland snow. The retrogression is less convoluted on this run.

February should be much different than this month. I'm sure we will have a couple chances of lowland snow. Amazing how consistent the gfs has been trying to set up a block in the long range.

[Jesse]

Yes that's strange. I have property near republic wa and just a couple weeks ago I checked a couple of lakes people had been ice fishing on and the ice was 8-10 inches thick. This is only 12 miles from Canada as crow flies.

 

Yeah, it's hard to imagine the difference being so stark. Diamond Lake in the southern Oregon Cascades was frozen solid when we were down there earlier this month as well. People were ice fishing on it. The BC Interior is WAY colder than southern Oregon on average.

[BLI snowman]

Where have you been reading this? I would like some links.

 

I would imagine they have seen much warmer Januaries, even in recent years.

 

Not too hard to research it.

 

Check out Prince George's temps this month

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/CYXS/2014/1/20/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

 

Mean temp of 25, and their monthly average for the month is 17. Only a handful of warmer Januaries.

 

The ridge has been really impressive this month, on par with the all time January biggies. Only natural that higher elevations are seeing extreme warm anomalies.

[snow_wizard]

Very nice GFS run. The best in a very long time.

[HighlandExperience]

Beautiful pictures.

 

I wonder how thick that ice is?

 

I have been reading the last few days about how many lakes in the BC interior are not even frozen over. It is the first time people can remember seeing completely open water on these lakes in January, some are even at higher elevations as well.

 

Thanks.

 

The ice in most of the Alpine Lakes in the Cascades are pretty solid right now. Especially the lakes above 3500 feet.  The thought of breaking through never crossed my mind. 

 

The snow in the backcountry is really icy right now. The snow felt more like early June. Some new snow in a few weeks would be appreciated. 

[Jesse]

Not too hard to research it.

 

Check out Prince George's temps this month

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/CYXS/2014/1/20/MonthlyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

 

Mean temp of 25, and their monthly average for the month is 17. Only a handful of warmer Januaries.

 

The ridge has been really impressive this month, on par with the all time January biggies. Only natural that higher elevations are seeing extreme warm anomalies.

 

I would think a mean temp of 25 degrees would still be enough to keep the lakes frozen. Areas in the Cascades at 3,000 (which have frozen lakes) have no doubt averaged a little warmer than that this month so far.

 

It looks like they had a mean January temp of 29 degrees as recently as 2006. I guess the people who can't remember the lakes having open water in any other January were all under 8 years old.

 

January 2003 had a similar mean temp to how this January will likely end up.

 

You're right. Not too hard to research...

[BLI snowman]

I would think a mean temp of 25 degrees would still be enough to keep the lakes frozen. Areas in the Cascades at 3,000 (which have frozen lakes) have no doubt averaged a little warmer than that this month so far.

 

It looks like they had a mean January temp of 29 degrees as recently as 2006. I guess the people who can't remember the lakes having open water in any other January ever were all under 8 years old.

 

January 2003 had a similar mean temp to how this January will likely end up.

 

You're right. Not too hard to research...

 

2003 and 2006 were both among the warmest PNW Januaries on record, so I'm not sure what your point is.

[GobBluth]

Kind of a mediocre GFS run - the pacific jet never gets cranking with some splitting offshore and ridging wants to immediately build back in just offshore. Have to wait until well into the resolution change for anything positive

[Jesse]

2003 and 2006 were both among the warmest PNW Januaries on record, so I'm not sure what your point is.

 

Monty67 said: " It is the first time people can remember seeing completely open water on these lakes in January."

 

My point is that Januaries that were just as warm or even warmer have occurred within the last decade or so. So I have trouble believing that no one in living memory has ever seen the lakes unfrozen at this time of year.

[BLI snowman]

Monty67 said: " It is the first time people can remember seeing completely open water on these lakes in January."

 

My point is that Januaries that were just as warm or even warmer have occurred within the last decade or so. So I have trouble believing that no one in living memory has ever seen the lakes unfrozen at this time of year.

 

Depends on where exactly he's talking about. Given the recurring placement of the ridging this year, it's easy to imagine that being the case in some areas. The temps at the major airport recording sites in that part of Canada certainly vouch for there being a lot of mildness, even in the river valleys. 

[Jesse]

Depends on where exactly he's talking about. Given the recurring placement of the ridging this year, it's easy to imagine that being the case in some areas. The temps at the major airport recording sites in that part of Canada certainly vouch for there being a lot of mildness, even in the river valleys. 

 

I don't know. Prince George had an average temp of 19F in December. Pretty close to an average January. That had to have put some ice on the lakes.

 

Then all of that ice flash melted when January's average rose to a balmy 25F?

 

Further south, Kelowna had an average December temp of 26F. January has been 31F so far.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I like the 00z. Its decent. Not as snowy for my locations as some runs a few days ago, but quite chilly in the LR.

[BLI snowman]

I don't know. Prince George had an average temp of 19F in December. Pretty close to an average January. That had to have put some ice on the lakes.

 

Then all of that ice flash melted when January's average rose to a balmy 25F?

 

Further south, Kelowna had an average December temp of 26F. January has been 31F so far.

 

Those are river valley locations and neither are northern B.C. 

 

Kelowna is basically like the Tri-Cities. They get stuck in the gunk in a pattern like this. 

 

A week or more of daytime temps of 50 or higher will melt a lot of ice. 

[westcoastexpat]

I know that many major lakes at rather high elevations in the BC interior have been reported to have not been frozen over, and the BC news has hyped it as "never seen before" by locals. 

 

The bigger story really is the lack of snow. Many places are way, WAY below their average snowfall by this time of year in the BC interior. My sister told me that it was raining at the Coquihalla summit in early January. I've never heard of that.

 

FWIW, my cousin lives up in Prince George and she was posting photos of her kids playing pond hockey back in December.

[Jesse]

Those are river valley locations and neither are northern B.C. 

 

Kelowna is basically like the Tri-Cities. They get stuck in the gunk in a pattern like this. 

 

A week or more of daytime temps of 50 or higher will melt a lot of ice. 

 

I thought the article was more about the BC interior than northern BC specifically.

 

Prince George is at 53N anyway, that's pretty far up there.

 

If you are interested in FAR northern BC, Fort Nelson (58N) has had an average monthly temperature of 0F for January so far:

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/station/71945/2014/1/20/MonthlyHistory.html

[Deweydog]

So the real question is, will the ice or lack thereof in northern BC make it snow at my house?

[Jesse]

I know that many major lakes at rather high elevations in the BC interior have been reported to have not been frozen over, and the BC news has hyped it as "never seen before" by locals. 

 

The bigger story really is the lack of snow. Many places are way, WAY below their average snowfall by this time of year in the BC interior. My sister told me that it was raining at the Coquihalla summit in early January. I've never heard of that.

 

FWIW, my cousin lives up in Prince George and she was posting photos of her kids playing pond hockey back in December.

 

That was my initial issue. I didn't expect it to turn into such a drawn out argument.

 

Looking at monthly stats for areas in the BC interior has been fun, though!

[Jesse]

So the real question is, will the ice or lack thereof in northern BC make it snow at my house?

 

The answer is: maybe.

[Guest Winterdog]

Very nice GFS run. The best in a very long time.

Yes, very nice. The 500mb level shapes up a nice ridge that looks like it will strengthen later in the run. Quite a transition from 240 to 252, looks like a rain to snow changeover.

[Deweydog]

The answer is: maybe.

 

For the record, I would like it to snow at my house.  

[Jesse]

Yes, very nice. The 500mb level shapes up a nice ridge that looks like it will strengthen later in the run. Quite a transition from 240 to 252, looks like a rain to snow changeover.

 

Just two to go!

[BLI snowman]

I thought the article was more about the BC interior than northern BC specifically.

 

Prince George is at 53N anyway, that's pretty far up there.

 

If you are interested in FAR northern BC, Fort Nelson (58N) has had an average monthly temperature of 0F for January so far:

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/station/71945/2014/1/20/MonthlyHistory.html

 

Looks like it was in the mid 40s up that way last week. Pretty major warmth.

[Guest Winterdog]

Only one more post and I'm in!   If those lakes in Northern BC are very deep it could affect their ability to freeze.  I don't know if they are or not but it definitely would be a factor.

[Jesse]

Looks like it was in the mid 40s up that way last week. Pretty major warmth.

 

Yes, but one or two days in the mid-40s wouldn't be enough to flash melt a lake in a month who's average temp is 0F.