January 2014 in the PNW

[Jesse]

Nope, but the longer term decline into the next glacial should initiate sometime around 2017 (+/- 1yr), with a significant temperature drop occurring during the 2020s. We finished up our warming in 2012.

A lot of people are predicting the exact opposite. Lots of calls for record or near-record global warmth in 2014, with an El Niño developing.

 

That's all they're talking about in the climate change sub-forum on AmericanWx right now.

[catnip]

At least the ensembles are slowing improving.  Hopefully back to normal or cooler by the end of month.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

 

 

Not bad. Even a "normal" Feb would be nice at this point.

[Jesse]

Lots of improvement on the 12z ensembles. Not bad.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is not pretty... even at 240 hours:

 

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014011712!!chart.gif

[Phil]

A lot of people are predicting the exact opposite. Lots of calls for record or near-record global warmth in 2014, with an El Niño developing.

 

That's all they're talking about in the climate change sub-forum on AmericanWx right now.

Trust me, please.

 

We'll see who has it right..my reasoning is derived solely from a physical perspective..I've created my own model of the dynamics in/of the planetary energy budget, eliminating all the hypothetical feedbacks assumed in the common GCM.

 

I expect 2014 to continue the flattening trend that began in 2001. Much like the 2002-03 El Niño, which did not spike temps significantly relative to the neutral 2001-02 ENSO. The reasoning for this prediction is too much for me to go into right now, but believe me, I've been careful and thorough..in fact I've devoted probably over 100hrs this winter to improving my model.

[BLI snowman]

This month is definitely a high level stinker. No snow whatsoever below 2000 feet. 

[Guest Winterdog]

Trust me, please.

 

We'll see who has it right..

 

Nope, but the longer term decline into the next glacial should initiate sometime around 2017 (+/- 1yr), with a significant temperature drop occurring during the 2020s. We finished up our warming in 2012.

Much smarter.  You get burned when you make those 1 to 2 year predictions. 

[Jesse]

I've been impressed with the inversion over PDX for this ridgy period so far.

[Phil]

Much smarter.  You get burned when you make those 1 to 2 year predictions.

 

Yeah I've never made a prediction like that. Only that 2012 marked the relative peak in temperatures.

[westcoastexpat]

Yeah I've never made a prediction like that. Only that 2012 marked the relative peak in temperatures.

 

2012 was awful. I can't believe how warm it was when I think about it. I remember 3 days in a row during mid-Morch it being 75F outside with not a single leaf on a tree, and the average temperature for that week was typically 45F. This was following a record-warm winter (about 15% of the usual snowfall) followed by a scorching summer. 2012 was purely awful across the board.

[Deweydog]

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=WAZ039&warncounty=WAC011&firewxzone=WAZ604&local_place1=&product1=Air+Stagnation+Advisory#.Utmv4dLTlAs

 

Seven days.  Sexy.  

[luminen]

The sun is actually out here in eugene. I can see blue sky. Finally.

[HighlandExperience]

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=WAZ039&warncounty=WAC011&firewxzone=WAZ604&local_place1=&product1=Air+Stagnation+Advisory#.Utmv4dLTlAs

 

Seven days.  Sexy.  

 

Maybe we can get a big screen with snow on it as well. 

http://earthfirstjournal.org/newswire/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2014/01/beijingsunset1.jpg

[Deweydog]

66 at Tillamook today.  Impressive.  

[Dan the Weatherman]

Maybe we can get a big screen with snow on it as well. 

http://earthfirstjournal.org/newswire/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2014/01/beijingsunset1.jpg

 

If that is in China as it appears to be according to the caption, I wonder how much of that obscured visibility in the background is smog as opposed to fog or low clouds. I can't tell if it was snowing at the time or not, even though there is either snow or ice covering the ground.

[Gradient Keeper]

http://i44.tinypic.com/t4wwth.png

[luvssnow_spokane]

http://i44.tinypic.com/t4wwth.png

The fisherman is going to open the door to greatness for us...  He is our good luck charm...

[Gradient Keeper]

The fisherman is going to open the door to greatness for us...  He is our good luck charm...

You never know. I mean stranger things have happened, right? ....

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GFS Ensembles have improved a bit.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

[whitechristmas]

18z GFS Ensembles have improved a bit.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

That's "cool". Think there's any kind of a trend appearing?

[Gradient Keeper]

That's "cool". Think there's any kind of a trend appearing?

Hard to say. It's just the 18z.... Be nice to see 00z follow suit if not be a little colder. A pattern change to cooler and wetter would be most beneficial to Oregon/Washington right now.

[HighlandExperience]

Made it to close to 70 degrees today Paradise on Mt. Rainier.

 

 

[weatherfan2012]

A lot of people are predicting the exact opposite. Lots of calls for record or near-record global warmth in 2014, with an El Niño developing.

That's all they're talking about in the climate change sub-forum on AmericanWx right now.

Geos would it have those.as he agrees with the idea of the cooling trends.as Geos would tell you I'm sure as well Americanwx tends to be pro agw geos is one of the few that post there that isn't.

[HighlandExperience]

Made it close to 70 degrees today at Paradise on Mt. Rainier

[luminen]

Made it close to 70 degrees today at Paradise on Mt. Rainier

 

That is ridiculous.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Made it close to 70 degrees today at Paradise on Mt. Rainier

I have to admit, I am not sure if I should be amazed or depressed by that...     

[Jesse]

Made it close to 70 degrees today at Paradise on Mt. Rainier

That's pretty hard to believe. What were the official numbers?

[Jesse]

42/32 out here today. East wind has been pretty strong since late morning.

[MossMan]

Sun broke out here in the mid afternoon time frame today, I raced out and washed the cars and cleaned up from last weekends windstorm, back to the fog now!

[HighlandExperience]

That's pretty hard to believe. What were the official numbers?

 

69 degrees at Paradise Ranger Station. It was 43 degrees today at Camp Muir at 10,000 feet.  

[TT-SEA]

East wind kicked in... 56 degrees at my house and 31 at the bottom of the hill just 3 miles away.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

00z is not bad in long range.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z is not bad in long range.

 

No it certainly is not.

[Deweydog]

Euro reshuffles the deck.  Deck reshuffling!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Ensembles

 

Portland

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

00z EURO full run
http://www.cascadeaccess.com/~mnelsen/Models/ecmwf500mb_ecmwf.html
GOOD RIDDANCE western ridge!

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!chart.gif

[Deweydog]

Holy s***, I'm ADVANCED!

[Gradient Keeper]

Holy s***, I'm ADVANCED!

Weren't you always?.... 2 more posts and I too reach that lofty criteria.

[Deweydog]

Weren't you always?.... 2 more posts and I too reach that lofty criteria.

 

To think, just three days ago I was a newbie.  My self-confidence is through the roof!  This beats any of the natural male enhancement products on the market, hands down.  

[Bham_Guy]

I'm still a newbie

[Skagit Weather]

The inversion doesn't seem as strong up here as down south which is nice. It is always nice to have relatively good air quality up here while the central and south sound are marinating in a nice soupy layer. Hopefully the hints in the models actually evolve into a pattern where we can get some more interesting weather, whether that be mountain snow or the always coveted lowland snow.

High of 45F after a low of 36F today.