Doinko Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 Full GFS run. Consistent troughing until the end with a massive ridge in Alaska in clown range. 1 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 (edited) Just two weeks ago… Anyway… Now…Up to 1.11” for the day, and 4.35” over the last 9 days. And possible snow coming up! Edited October 31, 2022 by MossMan 3 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 3 hours ago, Randyc321 said: BTW, on which part of the island did you live? I am a little bit less than a half a mile North of the ferry dock. Wing Point/Hawley Cove area. I lived right in Winslow, on lower Grow Ave. 3 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 55 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: zomg! 53 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: LAWDY Overrunning event! ❄ 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Gradient Keeper Posted October 31, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 00z ECMWF in 14 minutes C'mon King EURO, grant us thy mere peasants a cold model run, bestow upon us snow and icy winds. In English, how about you stop being a douche and get the job done. We want early snow. Great. Thanks. Think Cold and SNOW!!!! C'MON!!!! 8 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 Rain has resumed. Up to 2.54" for the day and 6.65" for the month. 1 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
selkirks Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 Just give us the precip...mountains need SNOW! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted October 31, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, MossMan said: Just two weeks ago… Anyway… Now…Up to 1.11” for the day, and 4.35” over the last 9 days. And possible snow coming up! I’m sure if the snow forecast busts for the rest of us you’ll still manage to get 6” of snow somehow. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 14 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: @Brian_in_Leavenworth can you see if the new GFS upgrade shows anything significantly different this run? lol it's free on weathermodles.com (I just found that out) 5 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 13 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: @Brian_in_Leavenworth can you see if the new GFS upgrade shows anything significantly different this run? So the maps aren't extensive, but I did get some hour 240 maps. One is afternoon temps, I think 5pm since we are still on DST, and the other is 72 hour snowfall. It doesn't show beyond day 10. 2 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: lol it's free on weathermodles.com (I just found that out) 2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: lol it's free on weathermodles.com (I just found that out) That's the current GFS 16.2. New one will be 16.3 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: lol it's free on weathermodles.com (I just found that out) Oh, absolutely lock this s*** in 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusky Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 GFS ensemble definitely puts the deterministic back in its place 2 1 1 1 Quote My Weather Station: https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5. My Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 Just now, gusky said: GFS ensemble definitely puts the deterministic back in its place Booooooo, (goddamn single run insanity) 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: That's the current GFS 16.2. New one will be 16.3 Yeah I was kinda questioning that after I posted it lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 Just now, Kolk1604 said: Yeah I was kinda questioning that after I posted it lol It's there but hard to find. Go to model maps, then model labs and it's there. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: It's there but hard to find. Go to model maps, then model labs and it's there. OK thank you I was going crazy in Animator. This 15 bucks for the next month better be worth it!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusky Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 Does weatherbell use GFS16? 1 Quote My Weather Station: https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5. My Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, RentonHillTC said: Looks like the newer model is colder. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: Looks like the newer model is colder. Are there two versions now? 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusky Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 D**n, even GEFS mean is on board rn 2 1 4 Quote My Weather Station: https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5. My Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 Pretty good run tonight. A 33/27 day for SEA and a snowstorm. 4 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 38 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: GEFS Day 8 Arctic air starting to penetrate the border Gorgeous Alaskan Block. I'm thinking future runs will further push the Arctic air down over us. Fun times ahead! 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Are there two versions now? V16.2 which is the current one right? and 16.3.3 which is about to be released. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 00z ECMWF Day 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Are there two versions now? There will be an updated GFS coming on board in November 29th. Here are a couple of screenshots from the NWS file that I downloaded. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, gusky said: D**n, even GEFS mean is on board rn 850s are considerably colder on this run vs the 18z. This might be for real. This would be an all time top 5 event for this early if it happens. 2 4 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 7 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said: Gorgeous Alaskan Block. I'm thinking future runs will further push the Arctic air down over us. Fun times ahead! The amazing thing is the scope of the cold air mass being shown. Gigantic for so early in the season. 3 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 The GEFS is also all in on the cold air mass being quite continental. 5 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post gusky Posted October 31, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: 850s are considerably colder on this run vs the 18z. This might be for real. This would be an all time top 5 event for this early if it happens. Hold your horses, I'll eat 4 ghost peppers at once if it snows more than 2 inches on the 8th/9th. Feel free to hold me to that 9 1 1 Quote My Weather Station: https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5. My Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 00z GEFS - Moses Lake. It does not get anymore impressive than this for early November. 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 Day 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: 00z GEFS - Moses Lake. It does not get anymore impressive than this for early November. I hope that cold air gets funneled through the Gorge for strong east wind and temps in the 20s! 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted October 31, 2022 Author Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 13 minutes ago, gusky said: Hold your horses, I'll eat 4 ghost peppers at once if it snows more than 2 inches on the 8th/9th. Feel free to hold me to that I’m sure you won’t have to worry about it, @GHweatherChris and his raccoon squad will be here to pull the rug soon. 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 00z GEFS Surface temps - Moses Lake. Look at all of those ensembles members well below the mean! VERY cold Columbia Basin! 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 ECMWF hi-res is running unlike last night. I can post both the model trends and model comparisons tonight if you want? 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 Absolute insane analogs from tonight's GFS run. A couple from the Nov 1985 cold wave. 1 1 6 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 Day 3 (Past 4 runs) Model comparison - ECMWF, GEM, GFS 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted October 31, 2022 Report Share Posted October 31, 2022 1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: I’m close enough to the Coast Mountains to benefit some from upsloping. Would estimate my area gets around 55" in a typical year. North Vancouver, right up against the mountains gets 80”. YVR airport only gets around 47" because they are further south yet and benefit less from upsloping. I didn't realize even YVR was so much wetter than BLI and places in the sound. I thought it was still squarely in the Vancouver Island rain shadow although as you mention, close to the mountains you get strong upsloping. You inspired me to look at Squamish and it blew me away to learn that it receives close to 90" a year. Now that's some hefty rainfall! 3 Quote Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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