Geos Posted July 28, 2016 Report Share Posted July 28, 2016 Was a beautiful day again. Was up near Bellingham enjoying the weather. High of 86° in Sammamish. 5 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted July 28, 2016 Report Share Posted July 28, 2016 What on Earth is going on with the Atlantic this year? Absolutely nothing happening and nothing in sight. I think the Atlantic is highly overrated for tropical storms. It's like everything has to be so absolutely perfect for anything to happen there. With colder ENSO they should be seeing some action at least. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 28, 2016 Report Share Posted July 28, 2016 What on Earth is going on with the Atlantic this year? Absolutely nothing happening and nothing in sight. I think the Atlantic is highly overrated for tropical storms. It's like everything has to be so absolutely perfect for anything to happen there. With colder ENSO they should be seeing some action at least.Long gone is the decade of the 2000s, where you could sneeze and a hurricane would form in the Atlantic. Amazing stretch without a major hurricane landfall in the US. It should be noted, however, that activity doesn't pick up substantially in the Atlantic until the second half of August. The multidomainal circulation associated with the dropping of the AMO/AMM in recent years is also responsible for the reduced ACE out of the Atlantic since 2012. We're nearing a bunch of multidecadal flips, so not too surprising to see the 1998-2012 regime end. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GobBluth Posted July 28, 2016 Report Share Posted July 28, 2016 There's a good chance (not certain) we'll see the Niña strengthen from late winter into/through next summer, with an off-climo peak in spring/summer, with a secondary peak next winter. Also might be an early start to winter in the US, weird NAM/PV progression, so on. Not going to be kind to long range forecasting. Might be the Donald Trump version of weather/climate upcoming.Come on now, not that crazy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted July 28, 2016 Report Share Posted July 28, 2016 We just had back to back record warm Octobers down here. 2014 and 2015. 2003 was also a top warm October.Jim is actually right though, overall October hasn't warmed as much as other months have, and the late October 2003 cold snap was the start of an awesome 10 week stretch of weather. I have a graph of the per decade averages highs of the old downtown Portland station here: http://i.imgur.com/B1vt2P5.png?1 And PDX: http://i.imgur.com/HCCeeiL.png?1 I didn't bother getting the lows because the UHI environment changed too much over the life of these stations (which has some effect on the highs too of course). 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 28, 2016 Report Share Posted July 28, 2016 68 at SEA already at 8 a.m. Going to be a warm day. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 28, 2016 Report Share Posted July 28, 2016 Jim is actually right though, overall October hasn't warmed as much as other months have, and the late October 2003 cold snap was the start of an awesome 10 week stretch of weather. I have a graph of the per decade averages highs of the old downtown Portland station here: http://i.imgur.com/B1vt2P5.png?1 And PDX: http://i.imgur.com/HCCeeiL.png?1 I didn't bother getting the lows because the UHI environment changed too much over the life of these stations (which has some effect on the highs too of course). November/December the two months with the least amount of change over time (December actually a little cooling). Not much of a trend for April, either. 1890s was quite the chilly decade. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 28, 2016 Report Share Posted July 28, 2016 November/December the two months with the least amount of change over time (December actually a little cooling). Not much of a trend for April, either. 1890s was quite the chilly decade. The nice index (NI) was through the roof though, apparently. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Jones Posted July 28, 2016 Report Share Posted July 28, 2016 November/December the two months with the least amount of change over time (December actually a little cooling). Not much of a trend for April, either. 1890s was quite the chilly decade.Yeah, I find it interesting that some months have warmed so dramatically while others have seen essentially no change at all. I'd love to know why but I won't even pretend to have an explanation. It basically means that fall used to be a longer season here, with September being a legit fall month (these days it leans more towards summer) and the coldest month being January. Now things are more compressed, with fall being a quick crash from mid-late September through the end of November. Also amazing that February used to be as cold or colder than December, whereas now December is colder by a significant margin. Again, I don't know why things have shifted to such an early peak for winter, but it has. And the 1890s were indeed very cold. Even relative to its era, that decade stands out a lot more than the 1950s, at least in Portland. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 28, 2016 Report Share Posted July 28, 2016 The nice index (NI) was through the roof though, apparently. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 28, 2016 Report Share Posted July 28, 2016 Nice weekend on the 12Z GFS... but also shows a potent system for Monday into Tuesday morning. Would be nice to get some rain from that and the timing is good as well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted July 28, 2016 Report Share Posted July 28, 2016 D****T, lol.Fixed for you. People are now forecasting weak Nina/Modoki for this ENSO event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 28, 2016 Report Share Posted July 28, 2016 Up to 71° here already. Probably looking at upper 80s later. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 28, 2016 Report Share Posted July 28, 2016 Up to 71° here already. Probably looking at upper 80s later. Only 71 right now? 79 here at this time. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted July 28, 2016 Report Share Posted July 28, 2016 In order to appear hipper and smarter than everyone else, you should just have said "NI" without explaining what it means. Hope someone gets to work soon on correlating NI with QBO, NAO, PDO, PNA, ENSO, IO, AO, etc. Not to mention SUP.The PNWSI is going to fluctuate this year. Hopefully it is highly positive by the end of the winter with the state of the ENSO, PNA, EPO and WPO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 28, 2016 Report Share Posted July 28, 2016 Fixed for you. People are now forecasting weak Nina/Modoki for this ENSO event.I assume they all live in the east or midwest? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 28, 2016 Report Share Posted July 28, 2016 Only 71 right now? 79 here at this time. At 10am it was at that reading. Now my thermometer says 77°. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 28, 2016 Report Share Posted July 28, 2016 Only 71 right now? 79 here at this time.Up to 96 here. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 28, 2016 Report Share Posted July 28, 2016 77 at SEA... and they have a +4 bump already with the low of 61. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 28, 2016 Report Share Posted July 28, 2016 74 at PDX on the hour. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 28, 2016 Report Share Posted July 28, 2016 12z GFS ensembles sure look troughy overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 28, 2016 Report Share Posted July 28, 2016 I assume they all live in the east or midwest? The Midwest has done pretty well with most Ninas. At least the upper part. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 28, 2016 Report Share Posted July 28, 2016 SEA is still only +0.8 on the month. Probably finishes around +1 at best, considering we're through 27 days and a +5 moves the needle by just ~0.1. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 28, 2016 Report Share Posted July 28, 2016 12Z ECMWF is strong with the Monday system... dumps heavy rain from Seattle eastward on Monday evening. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 28, 2016 Report Share Posted July 28, 2016 The Midwest has done pretty well with most Ninas. At least the upper part.Could have specified Ohio Valley/Lower Midwest. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 28, 2016 Report Share Posted July 28, 2016 Warmest day of the month. Expect heavy posting/updates from Tim, even by his standards. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 28, 2016 Report Share Posted July 28, 2016 Warmest day of the month. Expect heavy posting/updates from Tim, even by his standards. Did not post much yesterday about it. SEA will likely end up +6 or +7 on the day. No real surprises expected. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 28, 2016 Report Share Posted July 28, 2016 SEA is still only +0.8 on the month. Probably finishes around +1 at best, considering we're through 27 days and a +5 moves the needle by just ~0.1. Should end up in the 0 to +1 range for most of the region. Essentially a normal month. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 28, 2016 Report Share Posted July 28, 2016 Should end up in the 0 to +1 range for most of the region. Essentially a normal month.PDX still has a shot at ending up slightly below if Saturday and Sunday end up coolish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 28, 2016 Report Share Posted July 28, 2016 Nice day. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 28, 2016 Report Share Posted July 28, 2016 12z Euro depicts a series of troughs affecting the PNW. Not all a direct hit, but each one promoting onshore flow and weather generally at or below normal. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 28, 2016 Report Share Posted July 28, 2016 Latest update... the Nina is looking less impressive lately. Or at least its not really progressing. I know the response will be that a quick turnaround is coming soon but we have been hearing that for several weeks. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.7.28.2016.gif Compare to July of 1988... http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/mean_anom/July.88.anomaly.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted July 28, 2016 Report Share Posted July 28, 2016 Latest update... the Nina is looking less impressive lately. Or at least its not really progressing. I know the response will be that a quick turnaround is coming soon but we have been hearing that for several weeks. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.7.28.2016.gif Compare to July of 1988... http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/mean_anom/July.88.anomaly.gifWe MAY need to start an ENSO thread. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 28, 2016 Report Share Posted July 28, 2016 12z Euro depicts a series of troughs affecting the PNW. Not all a direct hit, but each one promoting onshore flow and weather generally at or below normal.Beat goes on... 8 of the next 10 days will probably be close to normal or above normal in Seattle. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted July 28, 2016 Report Share Posted July 28, 2016 12z Euro looks great. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 28, 2016 Report Share Posted July 28, 2016 Up to 81° now. The GFS's take on the early week system... Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted July 28, 2016 Report Share Posted July 28, 2016 July 30th to August 4th: Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted July 28, 2016 Report Share Posted July 28, 2016 Beat goes on... 8 of the next 10 days will probably be close to normal or above normal in Seattle. I'd say there's a good chance most the region is below normal after the first week of August. Probably not by much, but definitely more likely than above normal. The pattern does not look the same as the past couple weeks. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted July 28, 2016 Report Share Posted July 28, 2016 I'd say there's a good chance most the region is below normal after the first week of August. Probably not by much, but definitely more likely than above normal. The pattern does not look the same as the past couple weeks. Yes... I said the beat goes on. Regionally cool... Puget Sound region not cooler than normal overall. It might be different.... or sort of different.... but the result appears to be the same. Monday and Tuesday are clearly below normal in Seattle. The rest of the days shown on the ECMWF detailed maps are at or a little above normal around here. And yet... it will likely be cooler than normal in Portland with their higher averages and an equalizing pattern and definitely cooler than normal east of the Cascades. Actually... Wednesday-Sunday of next week sort of looks like last week. SEA could be in the 80s on a couple days. Definitely not a cooler than normal pattern here. The only real difference is the strong system on Monday afternoon into Tuesday which actually brings rain to Seattle and that will be cooler than normal for sure. This pattern later next week is not that troughy.. And as Jesse pointed out... the morning run shows cooler 850mb temps than the evening run this time of year. http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls20/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls20-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-zbN0fy.png Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 28, 2016 Report Share Posted July 28, 2016 Coming up on 85° now. Will be nice to get some rain. Keep the lawns from getting too brown. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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