September 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[wx_statman]

Yup, from a climatological perspective, the most extreme Arctic event on record for the PNW.

 

I'd say its a virtual tie with late February 1890. They're both up there. 

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, the station of the Gods did it in '55-'56. They fell a tenth of an inch short of having 3"+ in all 5 months.

 

November 1955 is an event that just blows my mind. It would be a major arctic blast at absolutely any point in the calendar (colder than any regionwide event we've had in the 21st century), so the fact that it started on the 11th of November is incredible. Seattle's record lows from that event rival or even exceed many places in the Midwest for November 11-15th time period.

 

Indeed.  That would be a respectable November event nearly anywhere in the lower 48.

[snow_wizard]

I'd say its a virtual tie with late February 1890. They're both up there. 

 

Yes...1889-90 was a dream winter.

[Deweydog]

What's the latest CFS update???

[BLI snowman]

I'd say its a virtual tie with late February 1890. They're both up there. 

 

 

March 1867 deserves a shout-out, too, at least locally.  Fort Vancouver had an unfathomable five straight subfreezing highs between March 12-16. 

[snow_wizard]

November 1911 is another good example, especially in Whatcom and Skagit Counties. Blaine hit 5F on 11/11/1911. Sedro Woolley hit 8F and Bellingham hit 9F. Even Chicago has never fallen below 10F that early in the season. The earliest there is November 12th.

 

This area is capable of some pretty amazing events from time to time.  Sometimes it's hard to remember that.

[BLI snowman]

What's the latest CFS update???

 

Looks like a blowtorch late September. Sorry, Jesse.

[snow_wizard]

March 1867 deserves a shout-out, too, at least locally.  Fort Vancouver had an unfathomable five straight subfreezing highs between March 12-16. 

 

Fort Steilacom hit 12 on March 13 that year.  Jaw dropping for sure.

[Jesse]

Looks like a blowtorch late September. Sorry, Jesse.

Now that's an update Matt can get behind!

[Deweydog]

Looks like a blowtorch late September. Sorry, Jesse.

Would be a shame if this month didn't end up at least a -2.

[snow_wizard]

Landsburg had 5 straight months with 1" plus snowfall in 1921-22 also.  Another fabulous winter.

[Jesse]

Quite the storm today. We camp on my buddy's family's farm in Mount Angel for Oktoberfest every year. Even I wasn't expecting the rain to start until sometime around noon at the earliest. The rain started a little after 8am and it was quite the scramble to get everything in the car. Some decent south winds down there too. Pretty fun system!

[TT-SEA]

Landsburg had 5 straight months with 1" plus snowfall in 1921-22 also.  Another fabulous winter.

 

 

What is the elevation at Landsburg?

[James Jones]

I'd say its a virtual tie with late February 1890. They're both up there. 

October 1935 is another one that's close. I think it's less impressive than either of those, but widespread highs in the mid 30s in October is ridiculous.

 

Btw, do you have Fort Vancouver data for winter 1861-62? I've never been able to find it anywhere online.

[wx_statman]

March 1867 deserves a shout-out, too, at least locally.  Fort Vancouver had an unfathomable five straight subfreezing highs between March 12-16. 

 

That's a good one too. Fort Colville hit -20F in NE Washington. 

[wx_statman]

October 1935 is another one that's close. I think it's less impressive than either of those, but widespread highs in the mid 30s in October is ridiculous.

 

Btw, do you have Fort Vancouver data for winter 1861-62? I've never been able to find it anywhere online.

 

Yeah late October/early November 1935 is another good example. You could throw in March 1906 as well.

 

Although strictly speaking, we're no longer talking about "top tier" events all-time. IMO the mid-November 1955 and late February 1890 cold waves can be directly compared to some of the biggest cold waves we've seen in the Dec 1st - Feb 15th window, on a regional basis. That's what makes them stand out.  

 

I don't have the 1861-62 data for Fort Vancouver but I'm pretty sure both Jim and Justin do. 

[Tyler Mode]

59.7, warmest of the day so far.

 

0.86".

 

Last September's wettest day also fell on the 17th.

[Front Ranger]

Boeing Field saw a gust to 35 mph earlier. Not bad for a September storm.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1.04" of rain so far today. 

[BLI snowman]

Fort Steilacom hit 12 on March 13 that year.  Jaw dropping for sure.

 

March 1865 also deserves props there. Two separate blasts with 25/16 on March 1, and 26/12 on March 7.

[wx_statman]

March 1865 also deserves props there. Two separate blasts with 25/16 on March 1, and 26/12 on March 7.

 

Fort Canby (Cape Disappointment) was 27 @ 2pm on 3/1/1865. The 7am reading was 20. Incredible cold for a coastal location in March. 

[MossMan]

PSCZ keeps meandering north and south...back directly over my house again with heavy rain currently. 56 degrees.

[snow_wizard]

October 1935 is another one that's close. I think it's less impressive than either of those, but widespread highs in the mid 30s in October is ridiculous.

 

Btw, do you have Fort Vancouver data for winter 1861-62? I've never been able to find it anywhere online.

 

You're in for a shock.  Snow depth data is extrapolated from notes that say both Jan and Feb had anywhere from 6 to 24 inches on the ground.  It's kind of exciting to actually possess something that can't be found online.

[snow_wizard]

Chills run down my spine every time I look at records for the winter of 1861-62.  I recently found some newspaper accounts from that winter for the Puget Sound area that state one to two foot depths were widespread for the Central and South Sound areas also.

[Timmy Supercell]

Chills run down my spine every time I look at records for the winter of 1861-62.  I recently found some newspaper accounts from that winter for the Puget Sound area that state one to two foot depths were widespread for the Central and South Sound areas also.

 

It's rare even for my area to have 24" depths. It was a bit of a stretch that there was a max of 18" last December at our home.... 

 

(technically not an official depth in K-Falls as the station that records snow here had 12" but there were varying depths in town within just miles.)

[James Jones]

You're in for a shock.  Snow depth data is extrapolated from notes that say both Jan and Feb had anywhere from 6 to 24 inches on the ground.  It's kind of exciting to actually possess something that can't be found online.

Thanks! It's hard to fathom that this area once had a winter like that, just incredible - that had have been at least a 60" winter. The snowpack must have been like a glacier by the time it started to warm up in mid February. It's also interesting how January 22 sucked in both 1862 and 1950.

 

Makes you wonder how often this type of winter happened during the peak of the Little Ice Age. 

[Front Ranger]

Chills run down my spine every time I look at records for the winter of 1861-62. I recently found some newspaper accounts from that winter for the Puget Sound area that state one to two foot depths were widespread for the Central and South Sound areas also.

16 straight days below freezing at one point. Not bad.

[Timmy Supercell]

16 straight days below freezing at one point. Not bad.

 

Another holy crap! I thought it was impressive that I went 240 hours below 32 with tortured frosted trees I wasn't sure would make it through the winter back in 2013

[Phil]

So, the 00z GFS is depicting what looks to be a successful quadruple poleward anticyclonic breaker cycle in the clown range...a full bi-hemispheric synchronization. My goodness.

[Phil]

Man, if only the progged pattern were to occur in January. It's basically wasted right now.

[snow_wizard]

The 0z GFS comes dangerously close to an early cold shot for us again.  That period has huge potential as the 18z GFS and 12 ECMWF looked even more promising.

[Timmy Supercell]

Man, if only the progged pattern were to occur in January. It's basically wasted right now.

 

You mean December or November. January is now an obsolete Winter month. 

[snow_wizard]

Man, if only the progged pattern were to occur in January. It's basically wasted right now.

 

Quite often the patterns this time of year are repeated in the winter.

[Phil]

You mean December or November. January is now an obsolete Winter month.

Science and logic aside, I have a weird hunch that this winter is going to do something very significant. It's been pulling at me for awhile now.

[snow_wizard]

16 straight days below freezing at one point. Not bad.

 

The 21.3 monthly average is rather eyebrow raising also.  Colder than a normal January for Chicago and basically tied with the coldest Jan ever for NYC.

[Timmy Supercell]

Science and logic aside, I have a weird hunch that this winter is going to do something very significant. It's been pulling at me for awhile now.

 

Could also depend on the area. Locally could be different for many. Last winter was significant for southern Oregon cascades and east slopes. Portlanders and Seattlonians complained they didn't get more than a trace.

[snow_wizard]

Science and logic aside, I have a weird hunch that this winter is going to do something very significant.

 

So do I.  I have been really crunching the numbers and it all comes out looking good for us.  Possibly extraordinary. 

[BLI snowman]

16 straight days below freezing at one point. Not bad.

 

January 1868 actually beat that for Vancouver with 20 consecutive days below freezing. January 1930 had 19. 

[snow_wizard]

January 1868 actually beat that for Vancouver with 20 consecutive days below freezing. January 1930 had 19. 

 

Pretty incredible, but 1862 certainly had more teeth.  It appears to me 1868 had a mega blast and then the cold just sat around for a long time.  1930 was cold up here, but not much snow.

[BLI snowman]

Science and logic aside, I have a weird hunch that this winter is going to do something very significant. It's been pulling at me for awhile now.

 

2014-15 was very significant. So was last winter.