Phil Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 For anyone interested in playing around with polar vortex analogs: http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html#ncep_clim_stats_nhIf the upcoming strat blast verifies, it'll be the only event of that magnitude to occur this early in the year, during a +QBO. The only comparable events were in -QBOs (Nov 1996, Nov 1998, etc). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 I agree. After the turds of the last 4 seasons, I will be happy with what we get. January 2012 was the last time I remember Seattle proper having a really good snowfall. Ever since then it has been downhill. Even if the correlation between November arctic blasts and bad DJF's was very strong, I would still much rather have a nice November blast and take my chances with the rest of the Winter. As it is, the last two major November blasts (2006 and 2010) were both followed by another blast later in the Winter. In this climate, rooting against cold and snow in hopes it will lead to better chances later makes no sense to me. 2 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 Looks like a +5 at SEA today... the biggest departure of the month. Looks like yet another month where SEA will finish with a warmer departure than PDX. Last time PDX was warmer was May. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 24, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 Looks like yet another month where SEA will finish with a warmer departure than PDX. Last time PDX was warmer was May. Have you switched to comparing SEA and PDX now since OLM has been running warmer than SEA lately? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 Tropical tidbits added a North Pacific plot. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 Have you switched to comparing SEA and PDX now since OLM has been running warmer than SEA lately? Nah, just a note. It does make sense that OLM would finally have a warmer month than SEA, when that month is incredibly wetter than normal. Only a few days this month they've managed any radiational cooling. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 Tropical tidbits added a North Pacific plot.IMG_0367.PNG So ugly. At least CA will get some rain. 2 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 So ugly. At least CA will get some rain.Yeah, playing around with flat NPAC ridging is dangerous, as I think I mentioned a few weeks ago just before this pattern developed. Very easy to get stuck in a +WPO/+PNA pattern through various constructively-sustaining feedbacks. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 Verbatim, the 00z GFS depicts a near record-breaking +PNA to start November, which hoses all the continental air to far-away lands. Gross. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 Even if the correlation between November arctic blasts and bad DJF's was very strong, I would still much rather have a nice November blast and take my chances with the rest of the Winter. As it is, the last two major November blasts (2006 and 2010) were both followed by another blast later in the Winter. In this climate, rooting against cold and snow in hopes it will lead to better chances later makes no sense to me. Why do want a November cold snap that won't be a quarter of what a January event could be? This is just crazy IMO. Major November cold waves were extremely rare the first half of the 20th century and the winters were great. It's obvious front loaded winters are poison for January. I guess everyone is ok with mediocrity now. January has FAR greater potential than any other month. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 24, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 Why do want a November cold snap that won't be a quarter of what a January event could be? This is just crazy IMO. Major November cold waves were extremely rare the first half of the 20th century and the winters were great. It's obvious front loaded winters are poison for January. I guess everyone is ok with mediocrity now. January has FAR greater potential than any other month. Good pep talk coach! Now lets go out and win this one. It will take 100% effort from everyone on the team... but I know we can do it. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 Hopefully my mom won't be the one to settle this November/January conundrum. When my brother and I used to fight over a toy, who gets it when and for how long, she'd just take it away from both of us and we had nothing. Ruthless *****. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 Why do want a November cold snap that won't be a quarter of what a January event could be? This is just crazy IMO. Major November cold waves were extremely rare the first half of the 20th century and the winters were great. It's obvious front loaded winters are poison for January. I guess everyone is ok with mediocrity now. January has FAR greater potential than any other month.Your January obsession is out of control. Any month from November - February can deliver the goods. See 2010/11. The fact you're hoping to blowtorch your way through 75% of winter just for a *statistical shot* at something in January seems very strange to me. To each his own, I guess? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 Your January obsession is out of control. Any month from November - February can deliver the goods. See 2010/11. The fact you're hoping to blowtorch your way through 75% of winter just for a *statistical shot* at something in January seems very strange to me. To each his own, I guess? Historically, the coldest and snowiest Januaries blow away the coldest and snowiest other months in the PNW. That's snow wizard's point. Awesome is awesome, but January has the most potential for awesome-ness. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 Historically, the coldest and snowiest Januaries blow away the coldest and snowiest other months in the PNW. That's snow wizard's point. Awesome is awesome, but January has the most potential for awesome-ness.It's not really about that. It's more about Jim's expressing dismay at those who desire wintry patterns in November and/or December, because he thinks early-season events somehow prevent good Januaries. All of this fear based on a few shoddy statistics from winters that occurred 30+ years ago, which may or may not hold any physical relevance whatsoever to today's system state. I'm not looking to get into an argument over this. Just my two cents. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 Verbatim, the 00z GFS depicts a near record-breaking +PNA to start November, which hoses all the continental air to far-away lands. Gross. There will obviously be a reversal at some point. You really seem to be getting cold feet lately. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 It's not really about that. It's more about Jim's expressing dismay at those who desire wintry patterns in November and/or December, because he thinks early-season events somehow prevent good Januaries. All of this fear based on a few shoddy statistics from winters that occurred 30+ years ago, which may or may not hold any physical relevance whatsoever to today's system state. I'm not looking to get into an argument over this. Just my two cents. The last 35 years have featured more November Arctic events than the previous 100 years combined. And you know what? ZERO really cold Januaries in that time. For some reason we do better when it waits. That was even true in our big winters from the first half of the 20th century. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 Historically, the coldest and snowiest Januaries blow away the coldest and snowiest other months in the PNW. That's snow wizard's point. Awesome is awesome, but January has the most potential for awesome-ness. Recent history dictates that Dec and Feb have the most potential for wintery weather. January is gonna be another near-record warmest, just watch. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 22 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, 5/15, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 It's not really about that. It's more about Jim's expressing dismay at those who desire wintry patterns in November and/or December, because he thinks early-season events somehow prevent good Januaries. All of this fear based on a few shoddy statistics from winters that occurred 30+ years ago, which may or may not hold any physical relevance whatsoever to today's system state. I'm not looking to get into an argument over this. Just my two cents.He wants a great January. Because that month has the greatest potential. You didn't seem to understand why he's so set on January, saying "any month can deliver the goods". It's pretty simple. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 There will obviously be a reversal at some point. You really seem to be getting cold feet lately.Back to at least 1950, there aren't any -PNA winters that were preceded +1SD or greater +PNA regimes in both October and November. So yeah, if this pattern is still with us by thanksgiving, I'll start sweating a little (regarding my winter forecast). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 Historically, the coldest and snowiest Januaries blow away the coldest and snowiest other months in the PNW. That's snow wizard's point. Awesome is awesome, but January has the most potential for awesome-ness. So obvious and provable yet many don't seem to get it. Is it so insane to want something that used to happen on a reasonably regular basis and hasn't since 1980? Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 Recent history dictates that Dec and Feb have the most potential for wintery weather. January is gonna be another near-record warmest, just watch. You have no way of knowing that. Maybe it will, but it will flip at some point. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 He wants a great January. Because that month has the greatest potential. You didn't seem to understand why he's so set on January, saying "any month can deliver the goods". It's pretty simple.Everyone here wants a great January. That wasn't what I was alluding to. It's the idea that November and/or December must torch at all costs for January to perform. It's utter nonsense on par with astrology-based winter forecasting techniques. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 Back to at least 1950, there aren't any -PNA winters that were preceded +1SD or greater +PNA regimes in both October and November. So yeah, if this pattern is still with us by thanksgiving, I'll start sweating a little (regarding my winter forecast). I would be fine with -PNA later in the month. We can get that without it being big event. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 Everyone here wants a great January. That wasn't what I was alluding to. It's the idea that November and/or December must torch at all costs for January to perform. It's utter nonsense on par with astrology-based winter forecasting techniques. It doesn't have to torch. Just not be frigid. Big difference. The numbers are there for all to see. Almost every really big winter was preceded by a mild November. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 It doesn't have to torch. Just not be frigid. Big difference.Well, obviously I'm not going to change your mind on this one. I guess we'll see what happens. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx_statman Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 The last 35 years have featured more November Arctic events than the previous 100 years combined. And you know what? ZERO really cold Januaries in that time. For some reason we do better when it waits. That was even true in our big winters from the first half of the 20th century. November cold waves weren't that rare before. I think you're exaggerating here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 It doesn't have to torch. Just not be frigid. Big difference. The numbers are there for all to see. Almost every really big winter was preceded by a mild November.You have a sample size of what, 5-10 years here? All of which took place 35-100+ years ago, within climate system states extremely different from the current one? Yeah, that's logical reasoning.. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 So obvious and provable yet many don't seem to get it. Is it so insane to want something that used to happen on a reasonably regular basis and hasn't since 1980?I think you're too caught up in a state of mind rather than a state of the atmosphere. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 24, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 GFS MOS shows some more +5 days this week. October is going to end up fairly well above normal it seems. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 There will obviously be a reversal at some point. You really seem to be getting cold feet lately. I think this is a dangerous line of thought. If a "pattern" used to happen 35 years ago, and hasn't happened since, my money is on this just being the new normal. That doesn't mean a mild November can't be followed by an epic January, but I think the set up is a lot more complex than simply "arctic air in November means no epic January" We could have an strong El Nino winter where there is 1 week of 2 feet of snow and most people would feel pretty satisfied, even if the rest of the winter was a dud. Anything can happen. Patterns and signals only hint at potential, but the possibilities are endless! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trainwreck Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 The good pep talk coach post was really funny Tim. That made me laugh hard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 SEA has had 3 days this month without rain. Could end the month with the same number. And on the PDX side of things - Measurable precip has fallen on all but 2 days this month. This shatters the old record of 17 days of rain for October at PDX. Quote Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 24, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 SEA is up to 63 already after a low of 52. That is a +7 on the day already. This is a warm pattern and looks to generally continue into next week. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 Mark Nelsen also posted a graphic showing how much warmer winters have been lately. The last well below average winter in the Western Valleys of Oregon was 1992-93. As for the coming week it looks absolutely gross on the 12z GFS. Lots of clouds, drizzle, light rain, and warm overnight lows. One of the things I hate about this time of year. If it is going to be warm I would rather it be sunny. Out in Oklahoma last week it was so gorgeous. Kind of a downer to be back here in the muck. Incredibly boring pattern too. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 24, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 Mark Nelsen also posted a graphic showing how much warmer winters have been lately. The last well below average winter in the Western Valleys of Oregon was 1992-93. As for the coming week it looks absolutely gross on the 12z GFS. Lots of clouds, drizzle, light rain, and warm overnight lows. One of the things I hate about this time of year. If it is going to be warm I would rather it be sunny. Out in Oklahoma last week it was so gorgeous. Kind of a downer to be back here in the muck. Incredibly boring pattern too. A little better up here thanks to offshore flow. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 It's not really about that. It's more about Jim's expressing dismay at those who desire wintry patterns in November and/or December, because he thinks early-season events somehow prevent good Januaries. All of this fear based on a few shoddy statistics from winters that occurred 30+ years ago, which may or may not hold any physical relevance whatsoever to today's system state. I'm not looking to get into an argument over this. Just my two cents.I strongly agree with this. The barking at others hoping for an arctic blast in the fantasy land range right now (November) is what is off-putting. Let people want cold and snow in the tangible future. Most people here want snow during the holidays over January anyway. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted October 24, 2016 Author Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 The PDO is really rising right now... http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/images_current/cur_b05kmnn_ssta_large.gif Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westcoastexpat Posted October 24, 2016 Report Share Posted October 24, 2016 The PDO is really rising right now... This would be good for Jim. May lead to a warm November and start to crash again come the new year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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