snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, gusky said: lol It got that cold in Nov 2010, and actually earlier than this. 3 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Day 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Just now, T-Town said: Time to issue some yellow cards for dissent. It's just that people put blinders on to the 75% of the stuff that looks good in favor of the maybe 25% that doesn't. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: It got that cold in Nov 2010, and actually earlier than this. November 2006 also comes to mind. The coldest it got here was 12 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said: But that low in Tacoma is totally reasonable and will come to fruition. Ask Jim. It's possible. Probably overdone though. Just because it may not drop to 4 doesn't mean 14 is unreasonable. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: It's just that people put blinders on to the 75% of the stuff that looks good in favor of the maybe 25% that doesn't. In the believable range, last week's cold nights were more impressive than what's being shown on the GFS, which looks seasonably cool with nights that are slightly warmer than that. 1 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Just now, Kolk1604 said: November 2006 also comes to mind. The coldest it got here was 12 I had 8 here in 2010. It dropped that low by about 10pm. After that the clouds moved in. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWx Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 This could still work out it’s just not as certain as it seemed 24 hours ago. Worst case scenario which is probably the op euro run there will likely still be some lowland snow in some places atleast and some decent cold with highs in the mid 30s for a few days. Best case scenario could be a good event like on the gfs. Sometimes people get lost in the perspective of thinking the best case model runs are going to happen. Then the finer details come into focus which is still a pretty good event but not as good as we hoped. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nov1985 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 The 18Z is trying to recreate the 1985 magic low from Alaska. It just needs to strengthen and stall west of the Olympics to Astoria. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: In the believable range, last week's cold nights were more impressive than what's being shown. I will say that you might have a harder road to hoe that far south with this. I think you still have a good shot though. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: It's just that people put blinders on to the 75% of the stuff that looks good in favor of the maybe 25% that doesn't. You preaching anything to anyone about blinders is Heeeeelarious. 1 1 1 4 1 1 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weiner Warrior Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Just going to stay 11 degree the rest of the winter. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 minute ago, TacomaWx said: This could still work out it’s just not as certain as it seemed 24 hours ago. Worst case scenario which is probably the op euro run there will likely still be some lowland snow in some places atleast and some decent cold with highs in the mid 30s for a few days. Best case scenario could be a good event like on the gfs. Sometimes people get lost in the perspective of thinking the best case model runs are going to happen. Then the finer details come into focus which is still a pretty good event but not as good as we hoped. I agree. The jumping off for no reason is what gets me worked up. 1 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Day 9'er 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: True story: I played youth soccer for 7 years. One game I had 4 goals, and my attempt at a fifth went off the crossbar. I was so mad I kicked the ball over a fence into a field and in a cussing tirade. LOL. GoaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaLLLL!!!!!!!!!!!!! My son played for several years and enjoyed it, but for me growing up in the south, soccer was not an option. It is a lot more popular down there now. I got into it through some friends here in Bellingham in 2006-2007 and have been playing ever since (I am 50 now). It always cracks me up when people say that soccer players are not athletes. The pros run up to 10 miles a match and that is filled with lots of sprints and turns/cuts. They also play at least 32-33 matches a year, more for side/international competitions. I used to play striker but my knees gave out so I play keeper now. That has its own physical demands in being willing to put your body on the line to stop a ball coming at you at up to 60mph (the pros crack them up towards 80mph), or holding your ground against a player sprinting towards you. With my 6'3" 270# frame its usually a losing proposition for the opposing player but I have gotten my clock cleaned a time or 2. In the leagues up here in Whatcom County, the over 30 divisions that play year round, which works out to about 30-32 matches a year. You start to feel it by mid-October. We had a player on our team who finally hung up his cleats at age 72. He wasn't fast, nor could he kick the ball very far, but he knew what the opposing player was going to do with the ball (and how to defend against it) before that player even got the ball passed to him. You usually put very skilled, fast players in the center mid position. We put that 72 year old guy in that position and nothing got past him! On the weather side of things, looks like we are going to finish this AR with .93" in the rain bucket, current temp is 41. 3 1 Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: It's possible. Probably overdone though. Just because it may not drop to 4 doesn't mean 14 is unreasonable. The problem with the map is that it shows 3 in Tacoma and 24 in Victoria and 22 in Vancouver. I suppose it's the Frazer outflow winds keeping the temps up but I doubt there would be that much of a difference. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 minute ago, snow_wizard said: I will say that you might have a harder road to hoe that far south with this. I think you still have a good shot though. Nah, but at least it'll be nice to be cooler than the inferno that was last summer. 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: You preaching anything to anyone about blinders is Heeeeelarious. Perhaps. On the other hand more things look good than don't right now. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusky Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: I agree. The jumping off for no reason is what gets me worked up. I even get happy at medium range when models trend a bit down, cause it can be a sign of models converging on a more realistic outcome. My Weather Station: https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5. My Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Kolk1604 Posted November 25, 2022 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 This is awesome. Can they upgrade it now so we can settle this model war? 9 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusky Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 I don't know if anyone has posted this yet, but Cliff is on board with cold and says conditions will be *close* to perfect for lowland snow Cliff Mass Weather Blog 3 1 1 1 My Weather Station: https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/b415ff35b2d13f00c899051028f04466 Located in North Seattle, elevation ~150ft. Highest temperature ever recorded is 110.3, lowest is 14.5. My Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshua Lake Oswego Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Good luck, Washingtonians. I would like my chances if I were you. Hopefully this doesn’t end up like December of last year when the arctic boundary hung up just north of the state border and we ended up with unimpressive temps and a few flakes. 3 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 8 minutes ago, gusky said: I even get happy at medium range when models trend a bit down, cause it can be a sign of models converging on a more realistic outcome. I expect a meeting in the middle which would be quite good for many of us. Right now the ECMWF is well outnumbered. Even its solution isn't terrible BTW. As for the ECMWF it has had a bias of pushing too much energy SW for eons now. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said: This is awesome. Can they upgrade it now so we can settle this model war? I hope they fix that bias of pushing energy too far SW in some situations. Maybe it's easier said than done. BTW...they are upgrading the GFS too. Touche! 3 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 More than half a foot mean over the next 10 days? Don't see any problems here. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Down to 39 now. Wasn't expecting that. 1 1 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 18z GEFS Day 4.5 (Past 4 runs) .... Maybe trying to follow the op run digging the arctic trough similarly? Probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyMaestro Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 The takes I’m seeing about fútbol on here. Oof. A lot of soccer is calculated slower 4D chess that happens on and off the field. How you could draw and still advance into the next round, how you could lose a game yet still *win* because you won on aggregate. Kind of like baseball but with a timer. My gripe with FIFA, UEFA, or the big soccer heads are that they are insanely corrupt though. Dare I say soccer has the chance to become real popular in the US by maybe 2030-35 with how aggressive its marketing has been, the success of recent MLS wins (go Sounders!), demographic shifts with Latin Americans moving and becoming US citizens, the World Cup in 2026 being held across North America, and the US tying against Pengland and the chance to advance into the next round? This can get huge. One of the Big 4 sports can be replaced if soccer plays it right. Football and basketball are forever king, but let’s see if MLB and NHL can compete long term. Maybe the pressure can get Manfred to actually care about baseball. 7 𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘴, 𝘐 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘯. 𝘗𝘶𝘺𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘱. Reddit: HotlineMaestro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Onshore Flo is kicking up down here, but it's still in the 70s. I'm not buying her insurance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, Cloud said: More than half a foot mean over the next 10 days? Don't see any problems here. Thats more than last night's 00z run 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: 18z GEFS Day 4.5 (Past 4 runs) .... Maybe trying to follow the op run digging the arctic trough similarly? Probably not. The GEFS has actually been quite cold. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, Cloud said: More than half a foot mean over the next 10 days? Don't see any problems here. Should be fine up there if EURO is overdoing the SW digging-- I can understand the consternations down here, though. 3 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Down to 39 now. Wasn't expecting that. Snow level dropping quick. Was not expecting upper 30s here at 3pm. That’s a good sign! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Day 5 (Past 4 runs) trough definitely digging more like the Op. Hmmm! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 Just now, Requiem said: Should be fine up there if EURO is overdoing the SW digging-- I can understand the consternations down here, though. I think you still have a decent shot. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 18z NBM is on the extreme side for snow 7 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 One day the 18z GEFS inside of Day 5 will be correct. 18z GEFS also known as the collection of or room full of 30 Drunk Uncles, perhaps Inebriated In-laws. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 4cast contest??? 1 3 1 1 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 25, 2022 Report Share Posted November 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said: 18z NBM is on the extreme side for snow That is really good news! I'm liking the enhancement in the Central Puget Sound area. 4 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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